ericchri

I thought it had been determined that it was actually Jorge Felix, not Felix Jorge, or am I just imagining that? I realize he's been thought of as Felix Jorge pretty much his entire time in the organization, and I guess he's listed that way on the official roster. It's just a little jarring every time I see it.

I agree with most, not yet. A good full season this year and it's worth thinking about. In a way I kind of feel bad for Dozier, he has a ways to go still obviously, but he looks like he could be a really good player who'd be a worth a long-term deal. Unfortunately for him, he's sitting at one of the positions that looks to potentially be most replaceable by prospects in the near future with Rosario and Polanco, and I'll be curious to see if they ever do offer him a good deal or if he ends up having to move elsewhere to get that contract.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-toolsiest-player-of-them-all/ Statistics put to use on the value of speed (actually all tools, but the last paragraph is about Billy Hamilton and speed).

The Kansas City Royals say, "Hi." http://joeposnanski.com/joeblogs/homerless-streaks/

Rarely do I get goosebumps when reading stories about professional athletes playing at the highest level, but this one got me. He seems so level-headed and insightful and has beaten some ridiculous odds to get here, you have to root for him.

A couple things somehow caught my eye when I pulled up the Twins stat page today. We have 6 players on the team with at least 4 walks right now. That would put each of them in the vicinity of 100 walks on the season (Joe Mauer's career high in walks is 90 in 2012, to give an idea) if they maintained that pace. The other was Dozier with 3 steals already. If he keeps walking and lowers his strikeouts (9 already? Yikes!) it'll be interesting to see what kind of steal numbers he may end up with.

So good to have these reports back. Following the minor leagues is so much fun when we have the talent we do right now. Even moreso when the major league team looks as rough as it currently does.

CF has always been my favorite position (i.e. the "if I was a big leaguer I'd want to be a..."), so when we have someone there to get excited about, he's probably my guy. Puckett, Hunter, Span, I even tried to root for GoGo. Last year's venture into Clete Thomas territory was killing me. So yeah, this year it's Hicks.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20140327/mlb-2014-season-predictions-and-picks/ Honestly didn't expect to see Twins appear in this column, but they made it in twice. In the Free-Agent Flop category, Cliff Corcoran predicted: And in the Bold Prediction for the season category, Joe Sheehan had this: Some disagreement between the two about Hughes, obviously. Nice to see someone fairly optimistic about the Twins this year, though. I find it unlikely, but I guess if way more things break right this year than we have a right to expect, it could be a good season.

Although puzzling, in a sense it is nice to see the new willingness to cut some marginal players even at risk of losing them. I don't really anticipate it being the norm, but that was one of the things many of us were dreading, with rumors of Arcia getting optioned to AAA to keep guys like this around.

Was just thinking that. Wouldn't be surprised if they're looking for trades, with Mastro the fallback. Or maybe it just means they're rolling with Buxton when Hicks gets hurt... :-)

That list of the under 23 hitters... It's easy to forget how really, really good Grady Sizemore was. Kudos for name-dropping Yokozuna and making me cringe over the fact that I even knew who he was.

I get the feeling Kubel's going to be playing LF with Willingham the DH, for what it's worth, even though it was assumed the reverse going into ST. I said it on another thread, I'm not excited about Kubel making it based on last year and this spring, but he's got enough track record I can ignore SSS spring training stats for now. I just want him to actually produce to keep his spot on the roster. We don't need a veteran not-part-of-the-future guy taking up a spot on the team if he isn't putting up worthy numbers.

I know that was said in jest, but I've always wondered why you don't occasionally see something like that. I have to believe somewhere or other there's a starting pitcher on an off day who's still much faster than some of the guys we see lumbering around the bases late in games. Probably happens more often than I realize, honestly, but I'm way too lazy to go looking for the answer. It's kinda looking like, at this point, all four (Hicks, Gibson, Arcia, Pinto) should be on the roster. That's a positive, like most I fell like they really need to be getting every opportunity possible at this point as we start turning over the roster to younger guys. You don't want everyone getting their feet wet in the majors at the same time, spread it out a little bit.

No pictures, just have to say, "sweet, sweet, single digits." When it started out in the forties it was almost depressing, even though spring training was starting.

There's plenty of reason to be optimistic or pessimistic about this year. I don't even know how people can be so certain what's going to happen. The whole team is a big set of if's. If Mauer is healthy, if Dozier is for real, if Willingham can bounce back, if Arcia can limit his strikeouts, if Hughes is better outside of New York, if Pelfrey is better 2 years after TJ, if Kubel isn't cooked, if Hicks isn't horrible, if, if, if... Could it be the worst? Sure. It could also be pretty decent. I don't see much likelihood of going below 60 wins, and I also don't see much chance to get over .500 for the season. With that much uncertainty, though, I'll just split the difference and guess around 70 wins, add a couple for being optimistic before the season officially starts and predict 72-90. I just hope they make it watchable this year, and hopefully the starting pitching improvements are enough for that. So many games last year I watched the starter implode in the first couple innings and just turned it off. It was depressing. Yeah, our offense might be really bad. But I'd rather watch them lose 3-1 than 8-3.

Not excited about Kubel making the roster, but he has enough history as a decent hitter that I'll let a SSS spring training record not be the deciding factor. I just hope he's on a short leash once the season gets going though. We have to transition to younger guys over mediocre veterans, so Kubel has to produce or move on. 4 players still to go. Rohlfing is one, obviously. Either Bartlett or Presley is another. Scott Diamond/Kyle Gibson/Caleb Thielbar is the 3rd. Parmelee or Colabello is the 4th? My guess is Bartlett is let go, Thielbar is optioned, and Colabello is optioned.

Where Mauer bats is probably going to be the difference in about +/- 10 runs scored on the season overall. He's obviously the best choice on the team to bat 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. You'd never waste him lower than that in the order, but the problem is you need to fill in those other 3 spots in the order around him. I think most of us would probably grab Dozier, Willingham, and Arcia for those spots with the assumption they're the 3 next-best hitters on the team. Once you decide on those 4, in my mind you toss a coin between Mauer and Dozier for 1st or 2nd in the lineup, and likewise for Arcia and Willingham for 3rd and 4th. Hopefully Hicks forces his way into this situation, but for now he should really bat lower in the order until he proves he's figured it out.

Honestly, while it seems unlikely, I could see Parmelee doing that. If you gave me even odds on one of them doing it this season and I had to pick one, I'd probably go with Kubel, but I'd be pretty tempted to go with Parmelee anyway, just due to youth. Kubel seems like he's probably reached his decline phase, meaning he's unlikely to put up a career year at this point. Parmelee has shown flashes of real hitting ability, he just hasn't put it together for a season, yet. As I started reading this thread, that was the first thought that crossed my mind. Herrmann obviously is not a great choice for CF, but if he only plays there 10-12 times on the season, he seems to be quick enough to manage it, and with a decent arm. Will it be pretty, probably not, but this season may be pretty ugly, regardless. I wouldn't mind seeing Herrmann get some at bats, anyway, I think he has the potential to be near league-average, and if he could do that backing up all 3 outfield spots, plus catcher and 1B (and 3B?), that's not a bad player to have around.

You're right, of course. I overlooked that he'd get occasional starts in left or right. But I still don't see the logic in always sitting Hicks when a tough righty is pitching. Is Presley more likely to get hits than Hicks against Verlander? Give Presley occasional starts in CF, and pretty much only against righties? Sure, that makes sense. Cherry-picking only the best righties, though?

Part of me immediately agrees with this, and part of me says, "how is that fair?" I understand the goal is to build up Aaron Hicks, not Alex Presley, but how can you look Presley in the face and say, "you only get to play when we're facing Justin Verlander or Felix Hernandez." Presley needs to have a chance to succeed as well, and does only facing the worst right-handers really develop Hicks to be able to succeed long-term? This is mostly rhetorical musing, and I don't really have an answer, I just find that a really tough concept to swallow, that Presley only gets the toughest Righties to start against.

Too bad it's not Fred Colabello, Fred Parmelee, and Fred Herrmann?

I recently started responding to a forum post, realized my post was growing ever-larger and mostly revolved around the topic of, "I think this guy will be better, but this guy, not so much...", and realized I was heading down the exact same path which caused me to create a questionable blog last year. And what's the best thing to do with questionable blogs? Pile on more, of course, making it into a "yearly" questionable blog topic (which assumes I may remember in future years). As with last year's 'The Completely Arbitrary +/- System to Predict "Something" About the Twins', http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php/2534-The-Completely-Arbitrary-System-to-Predict-quot-Something-quot-About-the-Twins, I need to offer the following statement: The biggest assumption being made in this is one player manning the position for the majority of the season, which of course completely nullifies most of the value from predicting anyway. Many players will suffer injuries, many will be replaced/traded mid-season, and various other things can happen to make that a truly horrible assumption. But it's easier than the alternative, and therefore is perfect for my arbitrary system. Last year's post turned out to be incredibly (along the lines of, "... broadside of a barn") accurate, so I guess I'm ready to make arbitrary and mostly unsupportable "predictions" about the Twins upcoming season to prove why I shouldn't write blogs. Here goes... Left Field: Umm, who played LF for us last year? I had to check baseball-reference on this, and it shows Willingham played 72 games there, so I guess he was our primary left fielder even though that's less than half a season. The rest were covered by Clete Thomas, Darin Mastroianni, Chris Herrmann, Ryan Doumit, Oswaldo Arcia, Wilkin Ramirez, and even Eduardo Escobar. Interestingly, Chris Parmelee didn't get any time in left even with that motley collection of others who did. But wait, I'm supposed to be predicting how this year's player will be compared to last year's, not waxing nostalgic over the amazing talent displayed last year. So, yeah, LF this year will be Josh Willingham, I guess. He'll hopefully be healthy this year and able to produce, I predict (WAG, whatever) better offense and comparable defense (puke) to last year. Offense+, Defense=. Center Field: Hmmm, left field already sent shivers down my spine and now I get to consider what we ran out into center field last year. It's starting to look like Aaron Hicks will get the job again this year, but of course he managed to lose it last year. Regardless, I don't want to think about who else played large numbers of games in CF last year not named Hicks or Presley. I think Hicks will put last year behind him and settle into the role adequately this year. His defense started out shaky but got better, including some highlight grabs and throws. I think he'll be more consistently good this year, and he's better than the guys who replaced him so Defense is improved. Offense, hopefully it can't help but be improved. Offense+, Defense+. Right Field: Bleh, this blog is now reminding me of how incredibly awful our outfield was last year. I mean, shouldn't outfield be one of the easier positions to be able to fill with borderline competent players. How was ours so consistently awful? Parmelee couldn't hit but played okay defense, Arcia hit okay but played terrible defense, backup catchers Ryan Doumit and Chris Herrmann got a lot of games in RF, just, uggh. Arcia gets the job this year. He should be better offensively, but how does a full season of him compare to what we had last year defensively? My guess is a wash, Parmelee didn't get enough games there for the defense to be significantly downgraded over a healthy heaping of Arcia and Doumit last year. Offense+, Defense=. Third Base: Trevor Plouffe takes over from Trevor Plouffe. Much as I hope we see more of June 2012's "Good Trevor", I suspect we're going to see lots of the usual mediocre Trevor. In the words of Miguel Sano, er make that Brad Swanson, "Ligaments are stupid." Offense=, Defense=. Shortstop: I guess we're in for more Pedro Florimon. I thought he'd play his way out of the majors last year, but he sure showed me, didn't he (.611 OPS)? He was better on offense and defense than I expected, but I still want someone who can legitimately hit to get this job. It looks like I'll be waiting a while for a real solution here. I don't see much reason to believe we'll see anything different from Florimon this year. Offense=, Defense=. Second Base: Finally, this blog post was getting depressing, I can finally feel happy about something. I can feel happy, right? June-September Brian Dozier is the real one, right, not the guy we saw before that? One of very few hunches my ever-expanding gut has had that hopefully turned out correct, Dozier was pretty good last year. I doubt his defense can be better than last year, honestly, but hopefully his bat is better over the course of a full season. Offense+, Defense=. First Base: We replaced a previously-concussed former MVP with a previously-concussed former MVP. Hopefully the current version isn't hampered by post-concussion problems. I think Mauer has the potential to be pretty good defensively, but I was always a fan of Morneau's, so I'm guessing the defense gets a little worse this year with Mauer. He's capable of being good, but he needs more time there to get fully comfortable with it. Offensively, it's a pretty good upgrade, though. I wanted to go with a double-bump for the offense from Morneau to Mauer, but Morneau was actually one of our better hitters last year, sad as that is, and I couldn't quite do it, not knowing if Mauer will have any concussion issues. I hope he doesn't, and I hope my offensive predicition is too light. Offense+, Defense-. Catcher: Errr, I said I'm predicting one player with the majority of the time at the position for the season, didn't I? Well, good thing this system is fake and I can change it whenever the heck I want to. I predict a relative 50-50 split for Kurt Suzuki and Josmil Pinto this year, slanted for Suzuki early and Pinto late. Now, compared to Mauer, yeah, this won't be pretty. Offense--(I figured there'd be a double somewhere), Defense-. Designated Hitter: Well, DH was bad last year. Doumit was sort of the DH, I guess, but I don't think anyone could really be considered the DH last year. Pretty much everybody who was on the roster got a chance to DH last year, I think. I could have sworn I saw Mike Pelfrey lobbying for the chance at one point, thinking he could do it as well as anybody else who did. Since I already broke my own rule at catcher, I can now calmly put Chris Colabello and Chris Parmelee in at DH this year. Jason Kubel should have been able to grab this job, and instead we get a platoon of AAA mashers that can't hit in the majors. Parmelee will probably get more AB's, being a lefty hitter. Boy do I hope he swings his bat instead of trying to be Joe Mauer. I get angry when Mauer stares at cookies, and he has a career .323/.405/.468/.873 batting line, Parmelee needs to swing at that stuff. I'm not sure we got any better or worse here, and that frightens me. Offense=. Bench: Do we actually have a bench? Backup infielder (must be able to play short, hitting optional), backup outfielder (must be able to play center, hitting optional), backup catcher (hitting optional). Last year's was terrible, this year's will hold up the standard. Wash. Bullpen: Last year's was pretty good overall, but then bullpens are pretty much unpredictable. I like our chances for this year's to remain a little above-average. Wash. Starters: As last time, I use a scale to rate the starters as a whole: Putrid Bad Mediocre Average Fairly Good Good Excellent I was tempted to add a couple more layers, as I didn't think last year's rotation could get worse than 2012's Putrid, but boy did they try to prove me wrong. I'll try to adhere to at least one standard in my system, and pretend last year's rotation ranked in at Putrid. I learned my lesson though, and I'm only predicting the same improvement I did last year, up to mediocre. If we'd made the same offseason additions before last year as we did this year I would have predicted we'd make it to average, but I should never overestimate our Twins' ability to have horrible starting pitching. Thus an automatic downgrade by one rank over what I think they should be. So, that all added up to +4. As we established last year, every plus of my prediction leads to another 6 wins, thus the reason last year's Twins won 90 games exactly as predicted... Hmmm, that seems familiar. Wait, that's the same rank I had last year. This system is clearly bogus. Somebody shut this guy up.

I suspect this is factoring into the decision as much as anything. We need to find out about Hicks as a CF before Buxton takes the job permanently. Buxton could potentially force his way up to the majors sometime this year, meaning there's not a lot of time left for Hicks to show his Major League chops, so he needs to do it starting now. I'd like to see him bat lower in the order, though, in hopes he doesn't feel the need to stare at pitches in hopes of taking walks.

Interesting, those look pretty close to Opening Day lineups for both teams, excepting maybe Santana.