Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

ThejacKmp

Provisional Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,113

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    4

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by ThejacKmp

  1. ThejacKmp
    The Twins need to maximize the catching their guys do next year if they want to focus on catcher development. My ideal depth chart assuming the Twins don't bring in another Suzuki: MLB: #1A and #1B: Centeno and JRM (Not sure what order, this is a placeholder year and JRM's hitting is the deciding factor - let's just say that the Twins chances of getting above .500 won't be based on catcher hitting so there's no reason not to throw them at the wall and see what sticks. JRM and Centeno get a chance to sink or swim. If they sink by June, well, either Garver looks ready or you're trading for next year's version of Kurt Suzuki). AAA: #1: Garver #2: Paulino (The Twins need to get Garver catching a normal workload if he's going to be ready to do that in the majors in September 2017 or early 2018. Paulino is an acceptable depth catcher.) AA: #1: Turner #2: Jairo Rodriguez (Turner gets a chance to repeat a level and see if he can take some steps with the bat. He's at best a poor-hitting backup as is so it's a big year for him.) No idea on Paulino and Jairo contract status. Either one can be replaced with another equivalent catcher off of waivers if they move on. That sweet profile of Jairo makes it seem like he'll stay I imagine.
  2. ThejacKmp
    I'd be more excited if he was going to catch every day in AAA. He caught less than half the time in AA and now he's in AAA where he's in another timeshare with JRM. Maybe he and JRM should have switched spots? I just want them both to play every day because they are the two most plausible internal options for 2017 and 2018.
  3. ThejacKmp
    This. This. JRM is 25 years old and has a decent track record of acceptable, average catching in AAA and the majors. He had a horrendous year but that doesn't completely obliterate what he did before. He shouldn't be handed a starting job but he's not a bad place holder in a timeshare with Centeno while you get Garver another year where he actually catches every day (he's not even catching half the time in AA this year BTW, we all forget that when we espouse the crazy "get him to the majors, he can hit" plan of attack). JRM still has upside, which is more than you can say for any veteran placeholder.
  4. ThejacKmp
    Really? You're ready to give up on JRM after one bad year? He'll be 26 next year. In 99 MLB games in 2014 and 2015 (236 at bats) , he put up a .718 OPS. With the Yankees he put up a .735 AAA OPS. I'm not saying he's amazing or that this year hasn't been awful but to think that one bad year means that you should "100% assume that Murphy is not an MLB catcher" seems like a pretty extreme reaction to a relatively small sample size. Guys have off years and to think that Garver jumping from catching half the time in AA to catching in MLB is the best way to do things is crazy. JRM is a nice short term plan for next year and you can always have the Centeno/Hicks/Hermann types in the wings if he fails. JRM still has a pretty decent amount of upside so it's better than signing a Suzuki clone. Garver should get an entire year in AAA where he is the primary catcher. If he gets a cup of coffee this year it should be to get some experience at what MLB is like with the occasional start - throwing him in on the regular after AA seems like a good way to set him back a step. Let's not overreact to JRM's bad year. Or if we do, let's at least own up to it if he has a steady year next year.
  5. ThejacKmp
    The Twins should not do that. Look at Russell Martin this year, #2 of his 5 year deal. His OPS is .677. Maybe that's an aberration but since he's a 33 year old catcher, I doubt it. He's going to be a backup level catcher earning $16 mill/year for the next three years. You see similar things with every single free agent catcher signed to more than 3 years. It's just a bad market - age and wear and tear are an unbeatable force. And Ramos adds in the uncertainty of being injury prone and posting two subpar seasons before this year's good year. I'm also not interested in trading for another catcher. Great prospects almost never are available (teams hold onto them) so you're trading for another average guy like JRM and the price is usually prohibitive. The Twins have acceptable internal options for next year in JRM and Centeno (JRM may just have forgotten how to hit but his track record in the majors and minors indicates this is likely an aberration) while Garver gets another year in AAA catching every day (leave Stuart Turner in AA for Pete's sake). Garver may not turn out to be an everyday catcher but he should be at least a platoon with a veteran known for defense.
  6. ThejacKmp
    I don't think it's possible to paint yourself out of a corner. You can paint yourself into a corner but then you can't do anything with the paint to get out. And if you never paint yourself into a corner in the first place, it's not called painting yourself out of a corner, it's just called painting.
  7. ThejacKmp
    Will Kirriloff get a promotion before the season is over? Anyone know if the Twins tend to do that?
  8. ThejacKmp
    What's funny is I remember talking about Gonsalves vs. Thorpe on TD several years back and I was always on Team Thorpe. Oh well.
  9. ThejacKmp
    Ack! Don't say that about Wells and Thorpe! Bad omens on the injury front!
  10. ThejacKmp
    We also kept throwing him out there because lots of other guys sucked. It's not like Milone/Hughes/Gibson ran away with jobs or May made a compelling case for the rotation. They were able to move him so I guess it worked out? Ugh. My bigger question is what would Ricky Nolasco have to do next year for you to want that extra year to kick in? Would a 3.00 ERA do it? Huge spike in K rate? Does it take legitimate Cy Young votes to make you forget his past?
  11. ThejacKmp
    And that doesn't even include the fact that teams can just not pitch him this year and/or next year to make sure he doesn't make it to 400 IP. Or the fact that he's been oft-injured the past few years.
  12. ThejacKmp
    You forgot about last year?
  13. ThejacKmp
    They in no way took a spot away from a vet in 2018, if anything they increased the chance a vet will get a spot. Ricky was done after 2017, there was no way the twins were going to bring Him back. His player option needed 400 innings in 2016 and 2017 - he currently has 124. The twins had every ability to stop that option year so no way Ricky is back 2018. Santiago will be a free agent but if he has a good year next year, the twins may just double down with a four year deal. Santiago is your threat to block gonsalves/jay/Stewart/Jorge.
  14. ThejacKmp
    Meyer want going to get much of a shot with anyone unless he performed, which he never really did. He may turn out to be a total bust but I just wish the twins had given him more leash because of all the tools. He's a heavy price to pay. Can you move Santiago at the deadline next year? He's a league average pitcher at best with a FIP over 5. It seems like we had tommy milone fitting that description and couldn't give him away. I love the optimism that the twins will give up on Santiago. Can't see it being reality but love the optimism.
  15. ThejacKmp
    But what incentive does Atlanta have to do that? They won't want want the salary if the Pohldads go cheapo and let the braves have him so they can "play the young guys". It wouldn't be until a team with playoff hopes like the Tigers is up that you have incentive. And I'm not sure how worried those teams might be about Kurt Suzuki, he's not going to set the world on fire. No reason to waive him, no one is arguing for that. Down the stretch you'll likely see more Murphy and content with suzuki being more of the backup.
  16. ThejacKmp
    Suzuki won't pass through but that doesn't mean he can't be traded. I'm no expert but if a team claims him, the twins can negotiate with them. No crappy team is going to take Suzuki so if a contender makes a claim, the Twins can go to work. Issue is that the Indians make the most sense and the Royals or Tiggers might have reason to make a claim to block them. Maybe they won't though since they might be afraid the Twins might just let Suzuki go on a claim and not have to pay him or worry in any small way about the vesting option?
  17. ThejacKmp
    Yeah but the July upgrades are often for the impact players while August is about aging vets and small pieces. As the Twins had no real impact players, I'm excited for August. Kintzler seems like the kind of guy who can move in August, Suzuki too.
  18. ThejacKmp
    Meh. I'm not a big fan of Santiago or this deal. You basically upgraded from Nolasco to Santiago and paid Alex Meyer to do it (the Twins also save maybe $2 million next year and get a lottery ticket reliever but those are small potatoes). I'm not sure that's the best path. if you just released Ricky or moved him to a long relief role going forward, you'd open up a rotation spot for a guy who might have a chance to be there long-term (Wheeler? Dean?) and end up spending about the same amount of money. And you'd still have Meyer - he hasn't been great but he still has a ton of potential out of the pen or in the rotation. As is, the Twins traded Meyer for the ability to upgrade from a crappy starter you could just not play to a league average starter who blocks guys who might be there long-term. This is a pretty lateral move in my mind.
  19. ThejacKmp
    We have to remember there is always still August for guys like Plouffe, Kintzler, Santana etc. I love that MLB has a trade deadline that is kind of a deadline but not really.
  20. ThejacKmp
    I don't know about earliest. Most likely maybe and even that seems a stretch. Those guys will be in AAA for most of next year so I don't think it's crazy to think that one of them might earn a September 2017 call up or cause some stirring service time debates in spring training of 2018. By the start of 2018 there may be a ton of rotation spots open if Santana gets moved at deadline 2016/2017 (even if he doesn't go this year, he'll be a prime candidate next year with only one year left on the deal, making him a rental+), Nolasco/Milone are gone and Hughes has become a bullpen guy. I don't see the Twins going to get back in the free agent market in any serious way either. So you're looking at potentially making choices among Berrios, Gibson, Duffey, May, the May/Rogers/Wheeler types, maybe a vet and then the young guys. If any of Jay/Gonsalves/Jorge/Stewart builds on this year they could be tapped to start 2018 or fill in for injuries in late 2017.
  21. ThejacKmp
    As Nick said, the Twins were out of options on Hermann. He would've had to be on the roster all year (or be lost for nothing) which means dumping Suzuki or not getting JRM. Though we may not love Suzuki or JRM, I think we can comfortably say we're happy the Twins took a shot on JRM (who still has multiple options left and is a much better prospect than Hermann) and are glad Suzuki is starting everyday instead of Hermann. The Twins got something for nothing and that something has turned out to be more exciting than we thought at the time. And no one has ignored Hermann's "revival". We've just correctly pointed out Small Sample Size and Past Performance and dismissed that a hot 145 at bats is relevant to deciding who wins a trade. The Twins had a below-replacement level catcher who they likely couldn't keep in the minors and who didn't warrant a guaranteed spot in the bigs and swapped him for an interesting outfield power bat prospect currently tearing it up in AAA. That's a pretty big win no matter how you look at it.
  22. ThejacKmp
    Ha. I was more saying from the point of view of a fan making it through those games. There was at least a month this year where every single reliever coming in made me cringe with the exception of Abad. For that month alone, he has been a great pickup.
  23. ThejacKmp
    Mediocre catchers are a dime a dozen. The difference between John Hicks, Juan Centeno and Chris Hermann is negligible. Endlessly complaining about minute decisions that make no real difference is actually crazy. John Hicks going was not a big deal. Chris Hermann being traded was not a big deal (except that the Twins actually got something interesting back). The Twins have had multiple catchers with the same set of skills and if the guys they currently have were hit by a bus, they could go find similar replacements relatively easily. This topic continues to be beaten to death. It's the weirdest thing in a super weird year on TD.
  24. ThejacKmp
    I want to cheer for McGuff in the majors. That name is gold.
  25. ThejacKmp
    1.) Chris Hermann = small sample size. He's never done this in the majors or the minors and it's in only 145 at bats. He's never profiled as even a decent backup catcher defensively. I'm ready to call it a win for the Twins even if Palka never pans out. Hermann had no place with the Twins going forward (especially with the JRM, Centeno and Hick deals - no one would have wanted Hermann over any of those guys this last offseason). Trading someone with Hermann's ground-level ceiling for anything decent is a good idea. 2.) It's time we stopped bemoaning John Hicks. You can sign a John Hicks caliber player in the offseason any time you want. The Twins have internal options in Centeno, Garver and JRM that are sufficient. Never has a bit player been so mourned as the case of the late John Hicks. 3.) Even if they never trade Abad he's been a great boon for this year. I shudder to think how much worse the dregs of the first half would have been without him. And while he hasn't been traded yet, I don't think it's crazy to say the Twins will deal him - he has to be the Twin most likely to be dealt. Even if we don't know the quality of prospect we get for him, something is always better than nothing. Especially when you consider that most people on TD wanted Bastardo/Sipp and we'd owe them $16 million over the next two years. Definitely a TR win.
×
×
  • Create New...