Lucas Seehafer PT

Vallimont was among six new additions to the Minnesota Twins' 40-man roster nearly two weeks ago. However, he wasn't as obvious as a choice as his compatriots. This video explains why. View full video

Dobnak could easily be a starter and I don't think this past season is representative of his capabilities. But, Ryan and Ober were pretty dominant for rookies. Dobnak started off hot two seasons ago then dropped off precipitously. With Dobnak, if he doesn't have control he's really going to struggle because he doesn't get a ton of swing and misses. I don't think he's a lock like the other two, but he is a candidate.

Fair, but the two moves aren't a 1:1 comparison. As time went on, it became pretty obvious that Berrios wasn't going to re-sign with the Twins. In that case, it makes some sense to trade him and at least get something in return. (And they got more of a prospect haul than anyone expected.) In the case of Buxton, it seems as though he's more than willing to re-sign, but the Twins are the ones balking. Giving him an offer well-below his production value only to trade him gives a false sense of trying.

Let me go out on a limb and be among the first to declare that Byron Buxton is no longer an enigma. He’s one of baseball’s most dynamic talents on both sides of the ball, possessing an ultra-rare blend of speed, power, and defensive instincts that rival — and, in many cases, surpass — those of the sport’s elite. However, Buxton’s body, which has blessed him with his many talents, is also his greatest curse. Since becoming the Minnesota Twins’ full-time center fielder in 2016, Buxton has appeared in a mere 447 of a possible 870 games (51.3%) due to myriad injuries. And yet, over that span, he has produced 12.8 fWAR, has averaged 133.3 wRC+ since 2019, and won one Platinum Glove. In short, when healthy, Byron Buxton has performed like an MVP candidate. But the Jekyll and Hyde nature of their star player — who is due to become a free agent after the 2022 season — has placed the Twins in a profound predicament: Do they try to extend Buxton and build around him, or trade him as part of a greater re-tooling project (one that was arguably initiated with the shipping of Jose Berrios to the Toronto Blue Jays)? For all intents and purposes, it appears as though both Buxton and the Twins have interest in inking a long-term deal. However, recent reporting by The Athletic suggests that the two sides remain at an impasse. The Twins reportedly offered Buxton a 7-year, $80 million deal laden with incentives in July, but the star center fielder and his agents rebuffed as they are more interested in a contract nearing $100 million in value. While it may seem a touch insane for the Twins to cave and submit a nine-figure offer at first blush, consider that Buxton has produced $102.8 million worth of value over this 5.160 years of service time, according to FanGraphs. Assuming he is able to keep pace for the foreseeable future, a 7-year, $100 million deal would be right in line with his production value, even if he remains unable to keep his body from betraying him. If he does find a magic elixir that keeps him healthy, well, then the deal would be a steal (pun intended). But perhaps the most pertinent question facing the Twins isn’t so much, “Is re-signing Buxton the correct move?”, but more, “Would trading him be the wrong one?” Minnesota is coming off a disappointing 73-89, last place finish in the hapless American League Central, 2021 campaign and find themselves with only two pitchers — righties Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan, both of whom were rookies last season — slated to be in the starting rotation next summer. They already shipped away Berrios at last summer’s trade deadline and figure to be interested in offloading Josh Donaldson and a healthy chunk of the $77.7 million remaining on his contract. Trading Buxton either during the offseason or prior to the 2022 trade deadline would likely net the Twins a significant return of high-level prospects to further bolster their already deep farm system. These nebulous prospects could then be swapped for more veteran MLB talent or developed to form the foundation for the next iteration of the Minnesota Twins. But the world is an uncertain place, often rendering the most logical hypotheticals moot. Trading Buxton may make the most sense at this specific point in time from a long-term team building perspective, but doing so also introduces far more uncontrolled variables into the equation that is the Minnesota Twins than simply re-signing him would. Byron Buxton is an oft-injured MVP-caliber talent; the amorphous prospects could be anything, even a boat. (Or, more than likely, a boat that requires a healthy amount of time in the shop to reach its full potential.) Both moving on from as well as re-upping with Buxton present benefits and pratfalls that could either push the Minnesota Twins back into the contender’s race or further into baseball purgatory. But the talent that Buxton possesses is the kind that many teams blatantly lose for and spend years trying to acquire. If you’ve got a boat, you may as well use it, even if it requires spending quite a bit of dough on spare parts. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Read more from Lucas here View full article

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Dan was kind enough to chat with me for 30 minutes recently. We discussed how he got into journalism, why he wanted to become a baseball beat writer, the role of anonymous sourcing in sports journalism, and much more. The following conversation was lightly edited for clarity and, believe it or not, brevity. Lucas Seehafer: I want to start kind of broadly. When and how did you decide you wanted to get into sports journalism? Dan Hayes: It’s funny. I was three units short of a full-load of classes in junior college and a buddy said, “Hey, why don’t we take journalism?” And I always liked reading the newspaper, but I’d never done anything with it. I was like, “Okay, sure”, expecting to go in and the teachers going to teach us how to do journalism. And, basically, you arrive and the professor’s like, “Welcome to the college newspaper.” You’re just on staff at that point. It was kind of shocking, but I needed the units. I was like, “Alright, cool. I’ll try this out.” I ended up in sports and made friends with the sports editor. I can’t remember if I covered baseball that first semester, but that was it. Three months later or six months later I had an internship with the newspaper in town, the Santa Rosa Press Democrat, which was a New York Times company. And in 1998 I was making $11 an hour as an intern for this newspaper. I was like, “This is great!” All of a sudden I was doing high school sports, getting to write like a football game a week, that kind of thing. It all just kind of took off from there. So, basically, because I needed health insurance, that’s how it all happened. LS: Hey, fair enough, everybody needs a reason, right?! So, once you kind of got more experience in the field once you graduated, why did you settle on beat writing? DH: I wanted to cover baseball and that was the route. I didn’t know that I was ever going to get a chance to. I mean, I stuck with the paper throughout college and I really just enjoyed it. I think the first couple of beats I did were college football. Actually, my first beat was women’s volleyball, but I knew, like, the way I reported on it that I really liked the job. It was something I wanted to pursue and so, even after I graduated and I didn’t have a job right away, I was freelancing for the San Diego Union Tribune and working full-time as a bank teller at a credit union. I just knew I liked it. It didn’t feel like work. I was going to this office job as a bank teller everyday and dreading it. Instead, when I covered games, it was just the highlight of my week, essentially. I started to take more and more assignments even when it was meaning I was working two jobs, essentially. You stick in the field and some people are lucky enough to get a beat right out of college. That wasn’t going to be me. I had to go to a small newspaper first in northern California and work high school beats. Then I went back to southern California for a community sports reporting job, which I did for three years before I ever got on beat. I just knew that that’s what I’d wanted, to do one thing full-time and be dedicated to it because I liked building relationships with the people that were on the team and that kind of thing and getting information from sources that you developed a report with. So, I knew that’s what I wanted. It just took awhile to get there. LS: Yeah, and, I mean, your story of not having a job straight out of college, that’s something that I know is fairly common. Do you think that your experience in other fields and also in other sports has helped make you a better baseball beat writer? DH: Oh yeah. The thing that’s great about all those other experiences is, you know you’re not doing exactly what you want to do, but you learn to do it and do it at your best level anyway. That alone, I was covering community sports events, which meant I was going to — I’m not a morning person at all, that’s one reason I like baseball — I was going to, like, marathons or half-marathons. You needed to be there to get on the media truck at 5:30 in the morning and that’s miserable for me. But, you throw yourself into the stuff and you work really hard and that’s the stuff you don’t want to cover. I feel like that really helps you just prepare for everything. There were times this year where I didn’t want to cover the Twins. They were boring, they only had two pitchers going every five days that I was really interested in watching at the end, and that’s not the easiest place to be, you know? With 50 games on the schedule and not wanting to watch the team you cover, but I think it teaches you to kind of persevere and be there and that definitely helps in some situations. Especially, I’ve covered I think four or five winning teams out of 15 seasons. So, there’s a lot of baseball, bad baseball, when you’re covering a beat that you don’t necessarily be there for, that, I think, the perseverance that you learn at other areas of covering helps a lot when what you are covering isn’t exactly what it cracks up to be. LS: You had mentioned that you have kind of always wanted to be a baseball beat writer. Why baseball? Where did your love for the sport pop up? DH: My dad and my cousins and my uncle. The five of us loved it. I was not very good at baseball. Like, I sucked at baseball. But my cousin played at a pretty high level and my dad and my uncle always talked about it. Their passion translated to me. I always saw my dad reading the newspaper growing up and I thought that was cool and I wondered why, so I started reading the paper. I didn’t know that that was going to be my route, but it doesn’t surprise me given how I was raised. Reading the newspaper every day and being up to date. I just loved it. I loved knowing everything about the team and absorbing as much information [as I could]. LS: You’ve worked now for three very different sports media outlets: The Athletic, NBC Sports Chicago, and The North County Times. How has your role as beat writer evolved at each place? DH: The great part about The North County Times, the Padres were very good my first season. They went to Game 163, so I got really well versed in knowing what daily was like and finding interesting angles, even when you’re writing 120 times per year. That was helpful, but by, like, 2008-09, the Padres were awful, so you’d become big picture much earlier in the season. You’d be looking at, like, Cameron Maybin had this awesome, great game. Is he the everyday centerfielder of the future for the Padres? I learned to be big picture early on, but that’s pretty much what I am now. We do daily stuff at The Athletic, for sure, I mean we definitely focus on analysis, but a lot of it is big picture. I think that’s where I’ve changed. I’ve gone from being super focused on daily to looking for the big picture items, which is really important with a team like [the Twins] because it’s a team that we know that they have a few guys that they commit to long-term and because of their self-imposed budgetary limitations, they only can select a handful of guys. So, you have to kind of always look for who’s going to be the core and that kind of stuff. I think that is probably the way I’ve changed the most. I still do [daily analysis], but I use it on my social media feed as opposed to writing about it. The way I’ve written, they way I write, has shifted significantly in that time. LS: I think the biggest questions people want to know from sports journalists, particularly beat writers, regards sourcing, especially now with the recent journalistic missteps of insiders such as ESPN’s Adam Schefter. So, I’ll start here: How does a beat writer go about developing sources? DH: You just talk to people. A lot. The way that I think it works really well is just develop trust because, look, there’s certain things that someone will tell you that wouldn’t necessarily be a story, but they’ll say something to you and [it’s] how you handle that, I guess. I just want the person to know that they can trust me. That they can talk to me and I’m going to quote them accurately, I’m not going to take something out of context. Someone can express a concern about a player, just in the portion of the conversation, and if you want to tilt that. Think about, in the average conversation, what you might say to someone and how many things can be taken out of context? The way that you develop a great rapport is by having the proper context and not trying to be salacious with everything. That helps a lot, you know what I mean? It’s not like, the pitching coach says six good things about the pitcher and then says one lukewarm thing and you jump on that one lukewarm thing and turn a conversation that was wholly good about the pitcher into this little part. You can explore that part as part of the conversation, but if your conversation was largely positive — it has to be if it was valid, you don’t just run with positive because the guy was saying positive things if he’s blowing smoke — but if what he is saying is valid and you choose to run with that one crappy part, I think that definitely is something that can hurt you. And, basically, just do good work. I think the more people see that, they trust you and that’s where you get real information. You know what to use, what not to use, you know when things are pertinent to use, when not to. The more you do that kind of stuff, the more the people around you work with you. Your sources know that they can give you a sense of what is going on with the organization and I think that’s really helpful because not everything that you talk about is immediately needed. It’s good to bank stuff for down the road. An observation on some player is good six months later because you can go back and make it a topic when it becomes more relevant. That’s really important, is not running with everything right away because some of it is irrelevant at the time. I think that perspective is key and it really helps with trust. When people see how you operate and that you’re professional, they become more likely to trust you. There’s certain things that, I don’t know, it’s complicated. In that way, I think that trust is so important. I feel like that’s something I’ve gotten very good at over the years. When I first started, any little scrap of information I would turn into a story right away and it was so, like, people would get scared of talking in front of you because they’re afraid of what they might say and it might end up in the newspaper article. And it can be the most minor, throwaway thing that has no significance, and all of a sudden it’s a big story. Well, a big story in The North County Times, which has 40,000 readers, but I think that that patience has helped me a ton over time because not only is it weak reporting to run something so quickly, but giving stuff time allows you to offer way more nuance and insightful reporting and that’s what the whole goal is. LS: And I can imagine the way social media runs these days that those concerns that you just talked about are probably even more rampant, particularly among people who are trying to make a name for themselves and get their careers going. DH: Absolutely it is. And social media certainly leads to a lot of, you see people say a lot of things where you can’t really tell what they’re saying in their quotes because they’re very guarded. And that, I think, has a lot to do with social media. LS: In other fields of journalism, anonymous sourcing isn’t uncommon, but it is more rare, often saved for occasions when an individual's well-being is at risk, but it’s commonplace in sports journalism. What do you think is an appropriate role for anonymous sourcing? DH: Well, I wish that people that were, like, in charge would just attach their name. It’s funny because you only use anonymous sourcing for a handful of people and they’re all the people that run the team, essentially. There’s nobody above them that is going to come down on them. This is the way it is with every team, with every GM, with every President of Baseball Operations. You almost wish they would attach their name because it’s not like somebody up above is going to fire them for their comments. But, I mean, that’s just how it goes. It’s a weird function of things, but, maybe, you start with someone lower level and you respect their being anonymous because they’re giving you information. You never run with just confirmation from the lower-level person, unless that person is directly impacted, like they’re the player that’s being moved. But if a lower-level person tells you something, then you need to go an take it to be confirmed by higher-level people. I wish we didn’t have to do it, but I understand why. You just better make sure the person that you’re using to ultimately confirm the story really knows their stuff and what they’re talking about and is sort of the authority on things. You have to be very careful about what you choose to use from anonymous sources. I think if you do that, if you go in with your eyes open, it really helps the process LS: In your mind, what makes a good beat writer? DH: Be there. It sucks that you have to, some of the sacrifices you have to make because baseball’s played in the summer and, obviously, a lot of it is at night, a lot of it’s weekends. Being willing to make the sacrifice and consistently being there it’s so key because that’s just how you get the trust of people. Being there, showing your face, being there for the big moments, being there for the throwaway moments. Being there and [being persistent]. Establishing trust so that people know that you are who you are, essentially, and get a sense for what way you’re coming. Having a rapport helps so much when you’re asking tough questions and I think that it gets you better responses because they know you’re not just coming out of left field. Not just being the best writer, but having the most thorough information, getting the best quotes, and having that trust to get you insight that maybe other people don’t get. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Read more from Lucas here View full article

On Thursday afternoon, all 30 MLB owners collectively announced a new housing policy for minor league athletes, which is slated to go into effect during the summer of 2022. According to the press release, the policy will “provide more than 90% of assigned Minor League players across every level with furnished housing accommodations at each Major League club’s expense.” The announcement piggybacked off of another made in mid-October in which Major League Baseball stated that they would require teams to provide housing beginning next season, though a specific plan was not provided at that time. The owner’s press release went further, specifying requirements that each team must meet, including, but not limited to: Housing must be “located at a reasonable, commutable distance from the ballpark” (A specific distance range was not provided) Each bedroom must contain at least one bed per player with no more than two players per bedroom Housing must be furnished and basic utilities (per Baseball America’s Josh Norris: electricity, water, and WiFi) must be paid for by the MLB team Hotels may be utilized if apartments, rental homes, and host families “are not feasible” Further reporting from Norris, who obtained a memo distributed by the owners to all major front office personnel, revealed that players “will not sign any lease or utility agreements” as leases “are not permitted” and the MLB club will be paying utilities. Additionally, this policy will apply to all minor leaguers who 1. Do not possess a major league contract and 2. Make less than $20,000 per month (i.e. the remaining 10% of minor-league players or disqualified). The owner’s decision to provide housing for their minor league athletes is a move that was much needed, but not one that should earn them any modicum of praise. There was never an acceptable reason for why housing was not previously provided and the decision was conveniently made only after minor league players started speaking out about their mistreatment at the hands of billionaires en masse. Additionally, while a near-doubling of salary may appear like a dramatic improvement, the average minor-league payout improved by only a couple hundred dollars per week, with rookie ball players bringing in approximately $20,800 before taxes last season and Triple-A players earning $36,400. In short, most minor leaguers will still earn a barely livable wage despite the previously installed pay bump. Reducing travel and providing a roof over the athletes’ heads not only should improve the overall quality of play in Minor League Baseball but are also humane actions, even for professional athletes getting paid to play a game. However, work will remain to be done until the athletes’ average salary increases even more, at least to the point where they earn anything close to their valuation. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Read more from Lucas here View full article

One week ago, Twins Daily discussed the need for the Minnesota Twins to get more out of their first basemen next season if they wish to return to the top of the American League Central. This week, we look at another position that vastly underperformed relative to the rest of MLB: Left field. Left field was one of the Twins’ most noteworthy question marks entering the 2021 season and to say that they experienced a merry-go-round of talent in the left corner would be a bit of an understatement. Unfortunately, the performance of said talent was rather lackluster, to put it lightly. In total, 10 athletes made at least one appearance in left — led by Trevor Larnach’s 60 games — and compiled an fWAR of -0.1, which ranked 28th overall in baseball. Luis Arraez (1.8 fWAR) began the season as the primary position holder — one that he had never played before — driven by the desire to keep his bat in the lineup but lacking a home after Jorge Polanco was transitioned from shortstop to second base. However, myriad injuries — including a Josh Donaldson calf strain prior to the first game of the season -- projected him from the outfield and into more consistent roles at second and third base. Larnach (0.2 fWAR), who took up the mantle left following an Alex Kirilloff injury and subsequent move to first base, displayed great promise during the early portions of his premature rookie campaign before an inability to meet ball with wood reared its ugly head. Brent Rooker (-0.2 fWAR) and Jake Cave (-0.3 fWAR) struggled mightily both at the plate and in the field, leaving their future roles on the team — particularly Cave’s, who is a prime candidate to be cut from the 40-man roster — in question. The Grand Left Field Experiment failed to such a degree that it gave rise to one of the most unproductive positions in all of baseball. The following are a select few statistics that put the Twins’ ineptitude on full display: 32.2% K rate (30th) 23.9% K%-BB% (30th) .658 OPS (28th) 82 wRC+ (t28th) .361 SLG% (27th) Minnesota enters the current offseason in virtually the same position as they did the last: With a big ol’ question mark in left field. Chances are that the position remains Larnach’s to lose, at least in the long-term, despite his continued struggles (33.9% K rate; .696 OPS) in Triple-A following his demotion. Few players in the Twins’ system possess as much raw power as the former Oregon State Beaver, who absolutely mashed fastballs as a rookie (.667 SLG and .362 BA) However, Larnach floundered mightily against any and all pitches with movement. Still, Larnach figures to be a key member of the future and is by all accounts a hard worker who is dedicated to his craft and willing to make adjustments to his approach. The Twins will likely have new hitting coach David Popkins work extensively with Larnach in an effort to cut down on his strikeouts and tap into his full power potential. The Twins could also seek to address their left field woes in either free agency or the trade market. Oakland’s Mark Canha (2.6 fWAR) and New York Mets’ Michael Conforto (0.8 fWAR) are both coming off relatively disappointing seasons and may be open to a change of scenery. Coupled with a trade of Max Kepler — one of the Twins’ most valuable trade pieces, according to FanGraphs — signing either Canha or Conforto would cover for the need in left while maintaining room for Larnach in right (or in the case of Conforto, he could take over in right while Larnach stays in left). Regardless of the path they ultimately take, the Twins need to address their lack of productivity from their left fielders this offseason. Doing so should be right up there with upgrading their production from shortstop, first base, and the starting rotation MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Read more from Lucas here View full article

As the Minnesota Twins enter the offseason, it's clear that they will seek to address the holes present in their pitching staff and shortstop. However, there is another position in which the team could desperately use an upgrade: First base. But doing so may not require much change. The Twins finished 27th overall in production from their first basemen according to FanGraphs' WAR (-0.2) during the 2021 season, with only Cleveland (-0.7), Pittsburgh (-0.9), and Kansas City (-1.0) winding up below them. (These were the only four teams to accumulate negative fWAR.) Despite ranking sixth in home runs (45), Twins' first basemen were 24th in wRC+ (97) and 29th in FanGraphs' defensive runs above average stat (-25.7). In short, Twins' first basemen, as a group, were terrible this past summer. Of course, this shouldn't come as much of a surprise to anyone who regularly tuned into the games. Miguel Sanó struggled mightily for most of the season before a hot August, and September resulted in quasi-respectable cumulative stats (30 home runs, 110 wRC+, .778 OPS). Alex Kirilloff shone brightly for 59 games before a wrist injury hampered his power, and the corresponding surgery in July sidelined him for the remainder of the season. As a result, Willians Astudillo appeared far more at first base than the Twins originally planned or his skills warranted. Arguably the best solution for the Twins' first base woes is also the easiest and most likely: Move Kirilloff to the bag and Sanó to designated hitter full-time. Kirilloff produced a 1.4 UZR in 213 ⅔ innings at first base last season, representing a slightly above average total. On the other hand, Sanó has accumulated -10.0 UZR at first base throughout his career and has never produced a positive value in a season in which he has played more than 50 innings at the position. Kirilloff's sample is too small to draw any firm conclusions — FanGraphs recommends at least three seasons of data before seeking to do so — but his early results are encouraging. Moving him to first base full-time would likely boost the team's fWAR and UZR numbers while maintaining a similar level of power at his peak. Sanó's presence at DH would also help fill the void left by Nelson Cruz's trade to the Tampa Bay Rays. Secondarily, the Twins could make Kirilloff the primary first baseman, move on from Sano, seek backups in either the free agent, waiver, or trade market, or rely on their prospects to fill in part-time. The first base free-agent class is heavy at the top with names such as Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo and lacks overall depth, making an acquisition of that nature unlikely. Likewise, trades for primary backups are rare unless said backup provides value at other positions. As such, perhaps the most logical solution in this scenario would be to have Jose Miranda serve as a utilityman, filling in at third, second, and first base, assuming Josh Donaldson remains on the roster. Miranda played 225 innings at first base across Double- and Triple-A last summer, committing two errors. Many evaluators — present company included — believe he is best defensively at third due to several factors: arm strength, feel for the glove, and range. Still, he could function well at first base in spot situations. Regardless of the path they ultimately take, the Twins need more from their first basemen if they wish to be competitive during the 2022 season. Moving a healthy Kirilloff into the role is most logical and would likely provide a boost both offensively and defensively. From there, it's on the shoulders of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to make the proper decisions. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Read more from Lucas here View full article

The universe is littered with white dwarfs, the remnants of stars similar to that of our sun. These stars burned steadily for eons, fusing hydrogen into helium and expelling unmeasurable amounts of heat and light into the vacuum of space. However, over time, the stars swelled to many times their original size as their reservoir of hydrogen atoms ran dry. They eventually expelled their out layers of plasma, relatively quickly, on a universal scale, becoming but a husk of their former selves. Well, perhaps such is also the case with Zack Greinke. Zack Greinke — a six-time All-Star and the 2009 AL Cy Young recipient — will be among the marquee names in free agency following the conclusion of the World Series, along with the likes of Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, and Max Scherzer. However, there’s a catch: the soon-to-be 38-year-old is coming off arguably the worst season of his illustrious 18-year career. Greinke has a deep repertoire of pitches, though he primarily relies on a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup. Statistically speaking, the changeup — his second-most utilized in each of the past four seasons — is his best offering as opposing hitters have mustered a batting average above .200 against it only once since 2018 (.205 this past summer). His changeup sits in the mid-80s and features devastating tailing action against left-handed batters with an average spin rate of 1,594 RPM. Opponents have consistently whiffed at approximately 30% of Greinke’s changeups over the years. On the opposite end of the spectrum sits his four-seam fastball. Over the past two seasons — in which he has struck out 187 batters in 238 innings to go along with an ERA over 4.00 — Greinke’s fastball has been lit up by opposing batters to the tune of a .280 batting average, a slugging percentage north of .500, and 17 home runs. This past season, Greinke’s “fast” ball sat 89 mph with an average location of middle-middle. Additionally, the effectiveness of his curveball and slider has dropped off significantly over the past two seasons, which, when combined with his lackluster fastball, ultimately led Greinke to post a scanty 17.2% strikeout rate in 2021, his worst since 2005 (13.8%). Greinke’s strikeout rate was only one of the lackluster stats the former ace put up this past summer: a 98 ERA- (worst since 2016); 3.33 K%-BB% (worst since 2016); 4.16 ERA (worst since (2016); 171 innings pitched (worst since 2016); 4.71 FIP (worst since 2006); 17.4% home run per fly ball ratio (worst of his career). In short, Greinke’s performance over the last two seasons reinforces the notion that he is no longer ZACK GREINKE and is now more akin to a third or even fourth starter. (His numbers aren’t all that dissimilar to that of Michael Pineda.) The Minnesota Twins have only two starting rotation spots — Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan — locked in for the 2022 season and will undoubtedly be active in the starting pitcher market, both in free agency and via trades. However, signing Greinke, even on a one-year deal, makes little sense. His age and recent performance suggest that a continued downward trend should be expected next summer, and he’ll likely command more money than a pitcher of equal or greater talent, such as Pineda. The Twins would be wise to look elsewhere in search of a top of the rotation starter. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Read more from Lucas here View full article

Glad to see that Max is having the best Fall.

Gilberto Celestino was overmatched during his 23 games with the Minnesota Twins this past summer. Other than the occasional flash of true MLB talent, his performance was more akin to a floundering fish out of water than that of a professional baseball player. But, at the end of the day, what could be expected from a 22-year-old who had appeared in a mere 24 games above High-A and was thrust into the limelight due to a rash of injuries suffered by an otherwise deep Twins outfield? Still, the outfielder acquired from the Houston Astros as part of the Ryan Pressly trade displayed enough talent, particularly at the minor league level, in 2021 to warrant excitement about his prospects. Celestino is an athletic and speedy outfielder whose defense projects best in centerfield but would be a viable option in right. Across the three levels (Double-A, Triple-A, and MLB), he played at this season, he appeared in 57 games in center, 25 in right, and five in left. With Byron Buxton (temporarily?), Austin Martin, and perhaps even Royce Lewis either in or near the majors, Celestino’s long-term outfield home remains up in the air. While his defense was worth -2 outs above average — albeit with a small sample size — while with the Twins, he made several two- and three-star caliber catches, which is suggestive for possessing good range. This assessment is backed up with the eye test as he made many highlight-reel catches during Spring Training and in the minors. Celestino boasts solid doubles power at the plate (29.3 per 140 game pace for his career), but his home run power remains a work in progress; his .153 ISO was the third-best of his career, while his nine home runs in 93 games pace represented a career-best. Although his average exit velocity (87.2 mph) and launch angle (5.4 degrees) were both below the MLB average, he achieved a maximum exit velocity of 111.4 mph — good for the 80th percentile — which suggests he may have hidden power potential. He possesses a decent eye and approach to batting, as evidenced by his walk rate (11.5% at Double-A; 11.4% at Triple-A), which is above average. His strikeout rate (25.0%; 20.4%), by comparison, hovers closer to the mean. Celestino’s bat-to-ball skills — as indicated by his average exit velocity — could use some refinement. This was particularly exposed at the major league level, where he had difficulty catching up to higher speed fastballs and could not hit offspeed or breaking ball offerings to save his life (combined: 2-for-20, 10 K). To their credit, the Twins recognized this and often made in-game adjustments to Celestino's stance, likely in an attempt to better position his hands to catch up to the increased velocity. As things currently stand, Celestino's median outcome would likely be the fourth outfielder on a playoff-caliber Twins team. He can play all three positions at least an average clip, which makes him a suitable replacement for the likes of Buxton, Trevor Larnach, and Max Kepler in 1-3 game intervals. However, hitting from the right side of the plate limits some of his and the Twins' lineup versatility as the roster is currently constructed. If his power progresses to the point where he's hitting home runs at a 20 per 130-140 game pace, his ceiling progresses to that of a solid everyday centerfielder. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Read more from Lucas here View full article

On Wednesday, Twins Daily unveiled Baily Ober as our Minnesota Twins Rookie of the Year. Today, we extend our congratulations to Jorge Polanco for claiming the Most Improved honor. But before we get to Polanco, let's discuss those athletes who finished just short. HONORABLE MENTIONS Byron Buxton, CF: 61 G, .306/.358/.647, 23 2B, 19 HR, 9 SB, 4.2 fWAR, 169 wRC+ Jorge Alcala, RHP: 59 2/3 IP, 3.92 ERA, 61 K, 14 BB, 10 HR allowed, 90 ERA- Byron Buxton would have undoubtedly landed in the top spot on this list had he stayed healthy, but even still, one could argue that he should have placed in the top three. (Full discloser: Buxton received my top vote.) No one in the history of the Minnesota Twins has ever performed better overall than Buxton did throughout his 61 games. His 4.2 fWAR and 169 wRC+ led the team by a significant margin, with only Jorge Polanco's and arguably Mitch Garver's advanced metrics able to hold a candle to what he put forth (*hint hint*). Alcala, on the other hand, finished the season strongly after getting off to a slow start. He allowed only eight earned runs in 25 innings following the All-Star break while striking out 30 and walking five. His performance in September and October was particularly encouraging as he surrendered only a single run and struck out 15 of the 44 batters he faced. Had his first half of the season not been a relative stinker (4.67 ERA, 3.9 K:BB ratio), he maybe would have squeezed into the top three. Show: Caleb Thielbar, LHP 64 IP, 3.23 ERA, 77 K, 21 BB, 8 HR allowed, 75 ERA-, 0.9 fWAR It would be difficult to find a better story among the 2021 Twins roster than that of Caleb Thielbar. An 18th-round pick out of South Dakota State in the 2009 draft by the Milwaukee Brewers, Thielbar posted career-highs in virtually every statistical category en route to putting together the best season of his career at age 34. Thielbar was arguably the team's top performer overall out of the pen, placing third in ERA- (Tyler Duffey, 73; Juan Minaya, 57) and second in fWAR (Taylor Rogers, 1.6) among the relievers who threw at least 40 innings. He was able to accomplish the feats due in large part to possessing one of the best fastball-slider combinations in the game. While he is arguably more well-known for his borderline-eephus curveball, which sits in the upper-60s, Thielbar's fastball and slider accounted for most of his outs this past summer. The four-seam fastball has always been his most utilized pitch — it accounted for 49% of the offerings to batters in 2021 — Thielbar more than doubled the use of his slider compared to 2020 while cutting his curveball usage nearly in half, according to Baseball Savant. Opposing batters could not figure out his slider as they slugged a meager .296 and struck out 19 times. It registered an average of 14.4 inches of horizontal break in 2021, which was a whopping 5.4 inches above average. Similarly, they couldn't touch his fastball with regularity despite it sitting in the low-90s. Thielbar's heater was worth a Run Value of -12, meaning it theoretically allowed 12 fewer runs over the course of the season compared to an average fastball. Thielbar's 2021 performance showed that his 2020 season wasn't a fluke and cemented himself a prominent role during 2022. Runner-Up: Mitch Garver, C 68 G, .256/.358/.517, 15 2B, 13 HR, 2.1 fWAR, 137 wRC+ 2021 Mitch Garver was a facsimile of 2019 Mitch Garver, which should be encouraging to Twins fans; the only blemish on his otherwise great season was a plethora of injuries that limited him to only 68 games. The reason for Garver's turnaround from a disastrous 2020 that saw him slash .167/.247/.264 in 23 games? He remembered how to hit fastballs. Not only did Garver hit fastballs in 2021, he destroyed them to the tune of a .688 slugging percentage with 10 home runs and 10 doubles. These numbers approximate his .829, 25, and 12 rates from the juiced-ball 2019 season, re-establishing him as one of the most powerful catchers in MLB Garver will likely enter the 2022 season as the team's primary catcher and will once again split time with Ryan Jeffers, barring an offseason trade. There's little reason to doubt that he can't put forth a similarly strong season if he can remain healthy, and doing so would make the Twins' offense that much scarier. Winner: Jorge Polanco, 2B 152 G, .269/.323/.503, 35 2B, 33 HR, 11 SB, 3.9 fWAR, 122 wRC+ Jorge Polanco was the Twins' best player, and he put together arguably his best season one year after ankle injuries debilitated him to the degree that many wondered if he'd be long for the team. Polanco became the first Twins' second baseman not named Brian Dozier to eclipse the 30 homer mark in a season, and his 35 doubles were the most on the team by nearly double-digits; Josh Donaldson's 26 came in second. His numbers would have looked even better had he not hit .237 with a near 7:1 K:BB ratio during the final month of the season. Polanco's meteoric rise from light-hitting albeit promising prospect to an All-Star-caliber, 30-home run middle infielder has been a joyous surprise to watch. His 2021 season reinvigorated his status in the fans' minds and likely the front office as well, as he figures to again be a staple of the Twins' lineup for years to come. Others receiving votes: Rob Refsnyder, Juan Minaya, Danny Coulombe, Miguel Sano, Nick Gordon, Taylor Rogers, Bailey Ober MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Read more from Lucas here View full article

The main reason I used the leaderboard is two-fold, though I understand your argument against doing so and concede it holds water. 1. I value performance more than I value projection; that's just a bias of mine. 2. I don't want my evaluations to be influenced too greatly by other sources; I want to judge for myself as much as possible. 2b. FanGraphs' prospect rankings are a little outdated. I think you could easily argue that Lewis, Martin, and Miranda are the only hitters in the system that should rank in the top 10. Most of the other hitting prospects displayed significant weaknesses this year that limits their potential in my mind. The most consistent shortstop this past summer was Jermaine Palacios, a borderline prospect who's probably more likely a third or even first baseman. As mentioned in the article, Lewis hasn't played in two years and many considered him to be more of an outfielder before the pandemic. In short, I guess I just don't see a ton of future pros like I do with the pitchers.

Minor League Baseball returned in 2021 after being sidelined the previous summer due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, many prospects and farm systems around the league were either seen for the first time or analyzed with fresh eyes. Here is what the collective we learned about the Minnesota Twins system this past summer. 1. Pitching Depth is the Strength... For years, the Twins were known for producing soft-tossing pitchers and preaching a pitch-to-contact approach. However, if one needs an example to display that is no longer the case, it would be challenging to produce a more blatant example than the 2021 season. Partially due to the natural evolution of the game as well as the Derek Falvey and Thad Levine regime's propensity to select hard-throwing high schoolers and college arms with solid reputations, the Twins farm system is currently replete with pitching talent. Jhoan Duran and Chase Petty are among those who sit in the upper 90s and touch 100 mph with regularity. Sawyer Gipson-Long, Matt Canterino, and Louie Varland all boasted K% north of 30%. There's so much talent in the system that top prospects Jordan Balazovic, Josh Winder, Cole Sands, and Simeon Woods Richardson couldn't even be bothered to pop up until the fifth paragraph of this article! And the talent doesn't stop at the backend of the starting rotation. While Jovani Moran and his 42% strikeout rate earned a promotion to the big league club by the end of the season, he was only one of a handful of genuine bullpen arms that excelled over the summer. Zach Featherstone, Jordan Gore, Osiris German, Aaron Rozek, Yennier Cano, and Denny Bentley put up huge strikeout numbers across various levels, and all boasted ERAs below 3.40. Ian Hamilton, a former top prospect in the White Sox system, put together a strong season at Triple-A, and it could be argued that he deserved a call-up at multiple points this season. In short, this is no longer your Dad's Twins farm system. Their approach to acquiring and developing pitching is night and day from 5-10 years ago. In short order, the team will be reaping the benefits of what they sowed, whether by advancing critical pieces to the majors or by swapping prospects for MLB-ready talent. 2. …, However, Offensive Depth is Lacking It's well known at this point that infield prospect Jose Miranda had one of the best seasons in all of MiLB this past summer. The 23-year-old slashed .344/.401/.572 to go along with 30 home runs, 32 doubles, and a 158 wRC+ across Double- and Triple-A en route to garnering numerous awards. Besides Miranda, who could play a prominent role on the Twins as early as next spring, the system lacks definite MLB-caliber offensive talent, particularly up the middle. Top prospects Royce Lewis and Austin Martin possess the raw talent to succeed at the MLB level for years to come. However, Lewis has not played organized baseball for nearly two years due to COVID and injury, and neither are guaranteed to stick at shortstop. (In fact, Martin played the majority of his innings in centerfield after coming over from the Toronto Blue Jays in the Jose Berrios trade.) Utility guy Edouard Julien put together arguably the most potent offensive season besides Miranda — he posted a 154 wRC+ due largely to his absurd 21.4% walk rate. He also showed more pop (18 home runs, 28 doubles) and base stealing ability (34 in 39 attempts) at Low- and High-A than he did while at Auburn University. However, he lacks a true defensive home, having appeared all over the diamond this past summer, though he is most robust at second base. Beyond the two, the Twins top offensive performers, according to FanGraphs, were a who’s-who of borderline top 30 prospects and minor league veterans. Luckily for the Twins, the majority of their offense at the big league level comprises established athletes who are under contract, so the need for prospects to reach the majors next summer is at a minimum. However, beyond the summer of 2022, the lack of offensive depth in the system may begin to rear its head unless key pieces are retained or a few of the borderline prospects breakout. 3. Watching Minor League Ball was a Good Distraction Perhaps distraction isn't the correct term here. The Twins were terrible this year and, at many points, virtually unwatchable. But their minor league teams all performed well this year and served as an excellent alternative for the baseball hungry. There are many issues with minor league baseball — the players are poorly compensated, the life is a grind, the production value of non-Twins streams was often pretty bad, etc. — but baseball is baseball at the end of the day. Few teams across MLB put forth a better minor league product than the Twins, which made the summer much more enjoyable. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email View full article