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tony&rodney

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Everything posted by tony&rodney

  1. tony&rodney
    No way to tell what has an element of truth. Hayes on The Athletic stated he had a source. His comment was in the comments. In any event it makes sense. Preller sure would like a LF, DH/1B, C, SP for his team. Look around baseball and examine who can take on the Cease contract for only one year and possibly return all of those needs in a trade. Remember that the Padres are not looking for prospects except as possible additions to a deal. Yes, it is messy, a little complex, and unlikely (largely because the Twins don't like big deals too much), but it is not a ruse and it is within the realm of reality. The Twins really could use a young catcher and have some ability to provide surplus assets to send in a possible trade but there hasn't even been a story or hint of action towards that end.
  2. tony&rodney
    As I have stated elsewhere, I'm happy with the Twins starting pitching. However, if Larnach, Vazquez, and Matthews sounds a bit steep and you are worried that this move could be a step backward, is there some substitutions possible? Castro and Julien in place of Larnach?
  3. tony&rodney
    I won't ever argue that Simeon is currently a mid rotation stalwart, but something about Woods Richardson tells me he is capable of carving out a real strong career as a guy who pitches really well and never gets his due respect until he is 6-8 years into his roll through MLB. Simeon will go 30 starts, 170+ innings, and put up a 4.00 or slightly better ERA and surprise people. Don't sleep on how good Woods Richardson can be.
  4. tony&rodney
    Hey, I'm really content with the current guys (Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Ryan,SWR), but if the Twins can add Cease for one year without losing a top prospect or a key player, do it.
  5. tony&rodney
    I would never trade Winokur. He has the floor of an A+ or AA player, but he has a ceiling above Walker Jenkins. Winokur is an amazing athlete. Think Oneill Cruz or maybe even Elly de la Cruz. He is just at the learning stages of playing baseball and it is way uncertain where he is headed. He is a keeper. Agree (mol) on the 3-1 ratio, but threw in Julien and Cory Lewis as sweeteners to get it done. I knew San Diego had room on the 40 person roster, which is another reason why Preller wants MLB players and not prospects for 2-4 years from now.
  6. tony&rodney
    Whenever I read your comments I always wonder how often you have actually seen the players in action? How many plate appearances of Keaschall or EmRod have you actually seen? How many times have you watched Andrew Morris pitch? I enjoy your arguments and the data is voluminous, but particularly on minor league players I'm always left curious about the number of times your eyes have watched these guys. I'm not negating the numbers but I'm a curious guy.
  7. tony&rodney
    Preller only trades Cease to fill positions on the team that are currently open. The first agenda is a starting pitcher that is controllable, Secondly, a left fielder to hold the spot for a couple of years. Third, a mid level prospect or two that have a shot. A DH would be of interest too. Lastly, a catcher to fold into their current group. Looking around baseball, the options for Preller are slim. The team can maintain their payroll but they are not adding. Thus the Twins pop up as a bonafide partner. Except the Twins don't really need Cease and can or should be able to dictate the direction of discussions. If I'm Preller, I'm asking for Zebby Matthews, Trevor Larnach, Edouard Julien, Cory Lewis, and Christian Vazquez. That is a pile of bodies. For those who use BTV (I don't) this is likely an overpay as a guess. If I'm Falvey, I am thinking about this as a possible positive. Perhaps counter with Castro instead of Larnach and add $4 million to the Twins side to sweeten the pot.
  8. tony&rodney
    You are correct about the Twins not being a favorite to win the ALCS and that it is a lot to give up for a rental pitcher. My view is that the Twins can get by without Raya or SWR or Matthews, although I'm quite hesitant to trade either of Matthews or SWR. The Twins can get by without Larnach or Castro, although i prefer to hold Larnach. The Twins can afford to add Gabriel Gonzalez and Cory Lewis to a deal. Losing Vazquez can be overcome with a trade or signing as well, although I believe in Vazquez as a catcher. I also think the Twins are not adverse to adding a small amount to payroll. So the trade makes sense for a couple of reasons. One it solidifies the top four SP and gives the #5 guy less pressure. It relieves the bullpen a fair amount because Cease throws a ton of innings versus a typical #4/5 pitcher. The pressure on the offense is relieved to an extent. The players who need to step up as young players or rookies are put into a favorable position. The Twins do not lose anyone who is crucial to their team success.
  9. tony&rodney
    Most baseball players were shortstops and pitchers at some point in their journey. A few were centerfielders and pitchers. There are not many examples of MLB athletes who played corner outfield or first base in grade school or even high school. There are some good athletes at 3B/2B in high school due to a superior shortstop pushing a guy over. Royce Lewis was a third baseman and Austin Martin an outfielder until they arrived into the Twins organization. Brooks Lee was always a shortstop. The transfer of a good infielder isn't that difficult. It mostly involves a few technical shifts and repetitions. Practice. At the MLB level the smallest of details make a difference due to the massive difference in expertise compared to any other league. Nuances come into play with young and inexperienced players in baseball. There are few athletes who can come into MLB as a teenager or even in their early 20s and be instantly proficient to a degree where they match the best in the game defensively. In the NFL, NBA, and NHL young superstars are common. Cooper Flagg could start for every team in the NBA today. This is just to say that development is difficult to predict and patience is needed. Royce Lewis has bulked up significantly during his rehab from two major injuries. We hear/read that he focused on flexibility, reactions, and speed this winter. Perhaps Lewis makes the adjustments in his new body to become a good third baseman. The potential of his bat generously allows him another opportunity. Martin is in nowhere land. It is hard to understand how he lost what were seen as decent skills in the field. Confidence? Brooks Lee is getting older and his lack of superior athleticism makes it difficult for him to play an excellent. The process isn't really a problem. Making the adjustments at the highest level is just more difficult than people imagine. The separation is unbelievable. Go watch a softball game, high school game, college game, minor league game, and MLB game in a two-week window and you will appreciate the difference.
  10. tony&rodney
    Dylan Cease is a very good pitcher. Nobody should dispute that statement. However, Cease will be a free agent and the Twins are not going to sign him to a Corbin Burnes type contract. The bump from Festa to Cease is likely two wins. This is important but not something to send a potential everyday player down the road. You are correct that Keaschall could flame out but he doesn't need to be much more than a 2 WAR player for several years to eclipse Cease's value to a team this year. Cease is not a player to tip the balance in a season. That player is Juan Soto. A number of people are willing to trade significant players in order to add Cease but this is not a case of must have. In any event, San Diego has not added merely prospects in recent trades. They are willing to discuss Cease because they have specific needs that can really only be accomplished via trades due to their current concern with controlling the roster payroll. Sadly that sounds familiar. Preller wants a young controllable SP who has pitched in MLB. That means one of Ober, Ryan, Festa, SWR, or Matthews. I highly doubt the Twins are listening on Ober or Ryan. Next the Padres need a LF. Here they may be interested in either Larnach or Castro, but asking about Wallner. San Diego also needs a DH/1B which could be Julien or Miranda. After that a mid level minor league OF or SP is an ask. That is a bundle and not all of that will happen so Preller will search. There are not too many teams out there willing to trade a young MLB SP, so it is going to be a struggle for Preller to find a fit. San Diego needs to make some moves, Minnesota wants to make a deal. Falvey has the upper hand here and needs to use it or walk away.
  11. tony&rodney
    The Dylan Cease saga feels pretty worn by now after a couple of thousand views and two hundred comments to date on TD. Nevertheless, it is good to see a TD writer weigh in with specific ideas. I appreciate that. Trade #3 is probably pretty close to what Preller can accept, although it isn't what he wants at this time. The Twins have some young SP and could provide a fair return provided the Dodgers don't step in and offer three or four guys who are working their way back from arm injuries, all of them with tremendous upside. A SP, either SWR or Matthews, a LF like Larnach or an infielder like Julien and if Vazquez is a part of the deal the Twins add about $4M. Preller will hold out waiting for other teams to bring their offers.
  12. tony&rodney
    Don't disagree with anything here. I am in the dark about what either Preller or Falvey want to do. I think Casali has signed a minor league deal already. Bottom line, it sure would be sweet to add Cease for what is affordable. He stays healthy, throws innings, and strikes out people. It allows for a little more time for our younger pitchers too. i think the biggest difference is that adding another good starter reduces the pressure on the offense.
  13. tony&rodney
    I'm not in on either really. My ok was trying to be open to $4M for one or the other, so no on both. I'm in on Cease.
  14. tony&rodney
    It is easy enough to filter through the ridiculous trades here. You should read some of the stuff on The Athletic or mlbtraderumors. I never submit anything there. The comments are almost all insane. Occasionally one can see a legitimate trade suggestion on BaseballTradeValues (I don't belong), but others are chuckle worthy far beyond anything ever suggested on Twins Daily. For the most part Twins Daily is the place for rational discussion and I realize that there often crazy exchanges or comments, sadly a few angry elfs from time to time. I'm sure I have contributed a few doozies too. It's all good as we say.
  15. tony&rodney
    Generally speaking, Falvey will make his offer based on his belief in those players who would pick up the slack from trading valued players. The Twins can (I don't know if they should/I would) offer a package of 1. Woods Richardson or Matthews; 2. Larnach or Castro; and Vazquez for Cease. The Twins could substitute a couple of prospects such as Cory Lewis or Kaelen Culpepper as well or maybe float Julien. Preller should not hear the names of Jenkins, Keaschall, or Rodriguez. San Diego needs a SP, LF, DH or 1B. The Padres are also expected to trade Arraez but he doesn't add the punch the Twins need for their offense. I would actually be hesitant to add either of Larnach or Matthews in a deal, but it could be argued that the Twins are reasonably covered in those positions. My largest concern is how the Twins replace an MLB catcher (Vazquez) with guys who have struggled at AA/AAA. If Falvey pulls off that trade he must quickly close the catcher hole with a signing or additional trade. All of these moves can be made if the Twins believe in the players filling the gaps for traded guys.
  16. tony&rodney
    The thing I don't really care about most of the talking head podcast is that they insinuate that they have knowledge unknown to the common person and talk endlessly about nothing, with an inevitable curse about "self-imposed" payrolls. The energy is not very positive and listening to these guys isn't as productive as reading the comments on this site. Our suggestions are at least specific and we admit that we know nothing and that the front office has their own ideas.
  17. tony&rodney
    Perhaps Keaschall and a few others can turn this trend in a different direction. The 2006 team had 6 players with more than 600 PA. There are many other examples too. Hopefully the 2025 team stays healthy and a couple of rookies step in to support the guys that are just barely past rookiehood.
  18. tony&rodney
    It is a long shot. I believe that is largely the consensus of many of us here commenting on this article. The discussion shifts to what is possible and you and others have mentioned some possibilities. There are outlandish ideas and there are reasonable ideas. Ultimately and naturally this is down to the choices and decisions made by the front offices and whether the deals suit their plans. What suggestions or guesses did the talking heads put out? On a fan site or podcast it makes no sense to just suggest that something should be done - RH LF/1B or that something cannot be done - Cease, catcher, etc. Did these fellows put out a specific idea they felt was rational?
  19. tony&rodney
    Luis Arraez plays with enthusiasm. His plate appearances are almost always a joy because he frustrates really good pitchers and fights through every at bat. However, he is a player without a position mostly, has very little power, and most damning (for me) is his inability to move around the bases. If i had to identify why Arraez, for his salary, is not a fit for the Twins or many other teams it is because he clogs up the base paths like an older power hitter. I still tuned into a number of his at bats last season via mlb.com, but I'm not expecting Arraez back with the Twins. If salary suddenly and unexpectedly was not an issue whatsoever, sure, trade Gonzalez, Martin, and another low level prospect for Arraez.
  20. tony&rodney
    What would your trade for Arraez look like?
  21. tony&rodney
    Pete Alonso has a couple of offers in hand but he is still hoping for that big deal. The reputed numbers for short term offers are in the neighborhood of 3/$90M. Others suggest 3/$80M. I'm guessing a team gives him 5/$125M, although the original asks were considerably higher. Do the Twins even think about a DH at those numbers? Remember that both Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa (less so) need at bats as a DH and the Twins also have guys like Miranda, Julien, Wallner, and Larnach who have some days where they are the DH. Alonso isn't even on the radar for MN. I think I would be flabbergasted and I have stated often that I have zero idea what Falvey thinks or plans for the roster.
  22. tony&rodney
    The Twins traded Steer because the feeling was that the team had more than sufficient numbers of similar or better players who slotted into his positions. That same situation does not exist for Keaschall. Miranda and Steer are roughly the same age, with Steer being a half year older. Steer has 4.5 WAR to his name versus 2.3 WAR for Miranda. I still like Miranda, but his opportunities are running out. He has to take the next shot. Keaschall is not the key to a trade. There are other players to send if Falvey desires to complete a deal. Hold Keaschall to see his ceiling.
  23. tony&rodney
    At a minimum, the Twins would need to send a starting pitcher back to San Diego. One of SWR, Festa or Matthews are the likely requirements. Most likely Preller also demands a pitching prospect like one of Raya, Morris, Cory Lewis, C. J. Culpepper or Charlee Soto as well as a guy like Yasser Mercedes. I will add that a monster complicated deal could be a real boon for the Twins in the short term and largely depends on Falvey's willingness to believe in specific players versus the field, which is how we often view the big lists of prospects.
  24. tony&rodney
    Who would you spend money on?
  25. tony&rodney
    This is actually an easy answer. Dylan Cease increases the win total by roughly two (at a minimum). The cost cannot be any of Jenkins, Rodriguez, or Keaschall any more than Baltimore is sending Basallo or Mayo. The Twins don't need Cease but they can acquire him with a combination of players and prospects that the Minnesota franchise can afford to deal, even while San Diego receives players to fill their needs. It is a want for needs deal The comment about trading for a high impact position player, a bat, continues to baffle me. Why write that comment if you cannot put out the name of a player who might be reasonably available. Margot, Grichuk, and many others are not those players. Austin Hays would be ok only, but not an impact player. Mountcastle is another player who might be ok, but is he really better than Miranda. Patiently I wait for ideas of a substantial trade to surface involving names instead of the obvious "The Twins should concentrate their resources towards acquiring an impact bat." Please don't suggest a swap of Julien, Paddack, Vazquez, and Martin for Vladdy Guerrero. Finally, I have stated all offseason that the Twins would or could add minimally to the 2025 26 person payroll within a roughly $10 million region. Adding Cease and Arraez for prospects isn't an answer either plus Arraez is not an impact bat (apologies to those who hold a different view). Waiting.
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