Jump to content
Our free agent ranking is up to 100 names, and now you can filter by player position! Click here to check it out! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

drivlikejehu

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,284

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    Except Ryan's actions indicate that he does believe them, and that his comments are not just a deflection from discussing sensitive analytic processes. Even if they were, though, that leaves a question mark for the Twins' actual strategy, and a pile of losses as the result. The team has underachieved by Ryan's own admission. That compares poorly to the rigorous approach and on-field successes of Beane, Mozeliak, Friedman, Daniels, etc.
  2. drivlikejehu
    There is no evidence that his scouts understand statistics beyond the old-time basics. Over and over again reflexive Twins/TR defenders demand 'proof' of this or that observation regarding how old school the Twins are (even though this is readily apparent and openly acknowledged by the organization). But when TR says "my scouts know stats" or that there are these various unnamed front office people (in addition to Goin), the requirement for evidence goes out the window. We are supposed to take the Twins' word that, along the path to 'getting back to how [they] used to do it', they've also kept up with developments in the game. To expand on 'mike wants wins' great post: even focusing on particular stats like FIP is a straw man. The forward-thinking organizations develop their own tools and processes. The issue isn't numbers at all, but rather the fundamental approach to management. Teams like Boston, St. Louis, etc., are run like a business - always looking for an edge, incorporating data into their decision making, and so forth. The Twins approach is obviously very different - something that is rationally undeniable as a result of Ryan's own comments (and others with the organization). They stick to set 'philosophies' and say so proudly. These philosophies are meaningless platitudes about 'playing the right way' and having starters that 'pitch deep into games' (as if anyone would want otherwise), among the slew that are regularly thrown out by the org. The Twins are a 20th century entity competing in the 21st century. It's a losing proposition.
  3. drivlikejehu
    I think you misread my post - I wasn't being literal.
  4. drivlikejehu
    It's interesting logic, to say the least, that Twins management doesn't know what FIP is because they are too advanced. I mean, if that's the best you can do, don't bother.
  5. drivlikejehu
    The homers Baxendale gave up at AA are a huge warning sign. He needs to get a lot better just to be a #5 starter, so his prospect value is pretty limited.
  6. drivlikejehu
    I must have missed it then. Where and when did he say they have more than 1, not counting interns?
  7. drivlikejehu
    The proof is everywhere. You can choose to deny it, I really don't care. Competent organizations don't give an extension to Nick Blackburn or give two years to Correia. Medically sound organizations don't constantly put players out there who shouldn't be, misdiagnose injuries, dramatically underestimate recovery time, etc. Modern organizations don't have just one full-time stats guy. The Twins are living in the past. That's a fact, not an opinion. If you're opinion is that living in the past is smart, then so be it. My opinion is that the other 29 organizations must have some reason for moving forward.
  8. drivlikejehu
    Like I said, the Twins are fine from a business standpoint, though they would make more with a better on-field product. And this is an organization that was almost contracted, so really their business success owes to outside forces. In any case, the competitive deficiencies show up in terms of wins and losses. With some changes apparently being made in Philly (even with Amaro in place), the Twins are now the last MLB organization to resist a rigorous and data-driven approach to management, whether that concerns player evaluation, contract formulation, medical treatment, and so on. They are the literal antithesis of innovation, openly defying what amounts to MLB best practices, and for irrational reasons.
  9. drivlikejehu
    I'm not familiar with any other firm that operates like the Twins. I have seen it in academia, non-profits, government, etc.: entities not engaged in profit-seeking or not acting in a fully competitive environment. For a competitive business, the Twins' insular and backwards nature is very, very uncommon, because even if a firm did behave that way it would usually fail. The Twins' business is fine because they are part of a joint venture with the other clubs that ensures substantial revenues. But their obvious and inarguable management failings certainly are manifest in terms of on-the-field results. The Twins openly and proudly emphasize the fact that they value things like loyalty and familiarity over talent and innovation. This is universally considered a recipe for failure, and the only real surprise is that the Twins haven't failed even more.
  10. drivlikejehu
    The problem with your argument is that extending your own players is not the same as signing free agents. In the case of younger players, there is often a discount involved in an extension because the reserve system gives leverage to the clubs. Even for players with more than 6 years of service time, the current club is often taking on additional risk by extending a year or more prior to free agency, and in exchange usually pays less per year than would result from free agency. And even in the scenario where there is no direct financial benefit, a player's current organization will have the most knowledge about his abilities, health, and makeup, all of which are critical in deciding how much to offer. So it's no surprise that extended players are safer bets compared to free agents (born out by studies - there was one on Fangraphs this past off-season). The Twins have still managed to botch the handling of their own players, of course (e.g., Blackburn), but the bottom line is that the excessively risk-averse Twins view free agents in a completely different light than their own players. They never would give a free agent a Mauer-like contract, so that decision is utterly irrelevant to the issue of whether the Twins are unwilling to spend money on free agents. The simple fact is that they are, while other clubs- who fully understand the downsides to the free agent market - nonetheless rely on it as an important source of players.
  11. drivlikejehu
    Technically the Twins have gone over-slot on draft choices, though not at the top of the draft. I think you are right about the Twins' general attitude but I can't characterize it as even partially 'refreshing' because it's just not very smart, while also being a disservice to fans. In this case it's just baseball, but such rigidity and close-mindedness is an ugly thing in the 'real world'.
  12. drivlikejehu
    Minor league baseball's website has GB/FB ratio. Baxendale is a flyball pitcher, so he's pretty much doomed unless he starts getting more strikeouts, or more groundballs, or preferably both.
  13. drivlikejehu
    Mediocre relief pitchers are easily acquired by a club. The whole point of a prospect is to provide something that can't just be picked up cheaply elsewhere.
  14. drivlikejehu
    Most of the time, free agents take the highest bid. If the Twins put in the highest bid for 5 free agents, it would be very unlucky to get less than 4 of the 5, even with the current state of affairs. Even when there are exceptions, it can be about money in a different way - for instance, a pitcher going to a friendly ballpark to rebuild value for the next offseason. If winning clubs had it so much easier, then the Yankees, Red Sox, etc., would be able to get free agents on the cheap. But this certainly doesn't seem to be how things work out. They sign more free agents because they offer more money. The whole argument about free agents not wanting to sign with the Twins just irks me because its so transparently an excuse for the Twins being cheap and struggling to value players (their own, e.g. Blackburn, and free agents, e.g. Correia).
  15. drivlikejehu
    I don't think this really explains things. First of all, it's not Ryan's money. And he's well under his budget for spending Pohlad's money. So there's no real "risk" involved in signing second-tier free agents.
  16. drivlikejehu
    #1 - This is technically satisified even if they put in a lowball bid, which really isn't any different from not bidding at all (except for PR purposes). So I don't think this is much of a prediction. #2 - This is the closest one to 50/50 I think. Signing a veteran backup is basically pointless but is Twins-like, so... #3 - The bar is low, true, but I would bet against it. What free agent pitchers are (a) even vaguely realistic and ( slated to get over $21MM? #4 - I think there's almost no chance at all Sano starts the season with the Twins, with injuries being a wild card. #5 - The Twins seem to like Duensing and have plenty of payroll space, so I don't see why they would non-tender him.
  17. drivlikejehu
    TL; DR. Ryan has nowhere indicated that his "strategy" is to have a below-average rotation bolstered by a good defense. So the OP is fan fiction.
  18. drivlikejehu
    A lot of Twins fans have grossly inflated views of the value various players have as trade bait. Guys like Danny Santana, Doumit, Fien, have extremely limited value. Role players and C+ prospects do not bring back the kind of starters the Twins need. I wouldn't have a problem if the Twins traded Rosario for pitching, but there's not really a need for it at the moment. They are nowhere near being competitive and Rosario's value could increase (though a decrease is also possible of course). If Dozier keeps playing well he would have decent value as well, if the Twins want to keep Rosario at 2B.
  19. drivlikejehu
    He hits flyballs - that brings down his BABIP but leads to homers. What worries me is that his HR/FB could drop because I'm not sure how good his raw power is. Given his age and overall track record, I don't think Dozier can really be considered a long-term building block. I do like him as an average to moderately above-average 2B for the next several years.
  20. drivlikejehu
    Pro sports franchises are not really a typical business. There are other factors in play as well, such as the prestige ownership brings. The Pohlads aren't totally outside the ordinary levels of financial commitment, but they aren't great either. The Tigers, Giants, White Sox, and Phillies are teams that come to mind where ownership has typically accepted lower profits to improve competitiveness (obviously some of the difference owes to market size rather than ownership). I'm not referring to any specific remark Ryan has made, but rather what his countless interviews and statements over the years reveal about his baseball philosophy. He just does not believe in spending money on free agent pitching. Sticking to that line isn't fooling anyone or giving him some kind of competitive advantage. If he does start going after free agents, other clubs will react the exact same way as if any other team bid... they could care less whether that team is the Twins or [pick team].
  21. drivlikejehu
    Who says the Reds - a very small market - have made a strong effort to extend him? They have a lot of salary committed in future years already, not including Chapman and Latos, the latter of whom will take serious money to retain. Pitchers are aware of the injury risks they face, and Bailey would almost certainly take a fair extension offer (though it is possible he wouldn't want to play for some teams).
  22. drivlikejehu
    A deal would have to be contingent on an extension. My guess is that most if not all teams would make that stipulation before trading for him, because the extension costs the Reds nothing and, if the talks fall through, they can just go to offer #2. And teams will offer more if it's not a rental situation. Has the ship sailed on Chapman to the rotation? If they moved him out of the closer's role maybe Perkins would be an attractive piece (as part of a package).
  23. drivlikejehu
    Mr. Brooks is right, but that's not really the problem. The Twins just won't spend significant money on a free agent pitcher. I'm not sure what more they can do to prove this... decades of empirical evidence. Literally hundreds of statements by Terry Ryan. A cheap ownership group. The chances of the Twins signing Tanaka are 0%.
  24. drivlikejehu
    The Twins #1 problem is their failure to develop their own players. That's also the most important aspect of any potential rebuild. But free agency gets at a more fundamental issue, which is the committment to putting the best team on the field. Coming in way under 'budget', refusing to change with the times, an often-troubling approach to injured players, and other issues all go back to the core values of the organization. The Twins are not very far from being a more PR-savvy Marlins at this point. Of course they would love to turn things around on the cheap - who wouldn't? Twins fans just deserve better than the half-hearted turnaround effort going on right now.
  25. drivlikejehu
    The risks of free agency are well known. But the question remains why a Twins fan should prefer for Pohlad to pocket the money rather than trying to improve the team, even if its just from 66 wins to the low 70s. The point of losing more, on purpose, to further enrich a billionaire just doesn't make sense to me.
×
×
  • Create New...