Dantes929

"she has no idea that I was honestly struggling to come up with Easter and it’s been almost 28 years and my wife still isn’t completely aware of just how stupid I am." I wonder if that says more about you or her. Of course you have probably been a Christian longer than 28 years and God is completely aware of how stupid you are. Might be your saving grace.

"It's natural to get overly excited about such a spectacular showing in the season's first three games. But what we saw from the Twins rotation in Baltimore was no fluke. This was by design." I would say its a little fluky at least. I'm more optimistic than most and the pitchers did look good but SSS and all against one team. I'm loving it but lets see where we sit after a few more series. Baker, Slowey and Blackburn had some nice three game stretches as well.

This being baseball I am guessing that we will get swept by someone we should beat at some point this month. 17-10 is not sustainable but realistic in the sense that it is reasonably possible but 17-10 is on a pace to win 102 games. Realistic while still being more probably is 14-13 which projects out to 84 wins. Since we are already 2-1 maybe 15-12 which projects out to 90 wins. Given Santana is out I think I would bank that 15 wins if offered in place of what we actually do.

I guess we should all temper our enthusiasm a little bit. I remember Blackburn had a nice 3 start stretch early in a season and everyone called him ace. Its just nice to see after the good stretch in the 2nd half last year. Just maybe cut him a little slack if he has a clunker or two also cuz everyone has em. Fans point out he should attack the zone more but while he was wild he really wasn't wild in the zone. He was hitting corners or was out of the strike zone. That many walks will not be a good recipe for success in the future. Keeping hitters off balance will be.

Our #4 and #5 starters... 12 innings of shutout ball. Suck it Cleveland!

While I applaud the use of a new fastball to keep batters guessing I don't think enough has been made of his breaking pitches. As I said in another post it used to look on TV like he threw the same stuff over and over again. Now its not just the 4 seamer they have to look for but a change up and a pretty nasty breaking ball as well. After his best start (and maybe the only good one) in the first half last year he talked about how he threw more curve balls than he ever had and I thought "alright. maybe the light has come on" but it must take a while to sink in because he didn't throw it again much until the 2nd half. All of a sudden he is using all the weapons we thought he had in the first place. And yeah... has anyone ever seen someone swing at a ball as far off the plate as the one Beckham swung at?

Over reliance on a sinker was part of Blackburn's problem also. I don't think it is a good sign when every pitch looks the same on TV. That was less the case last year. He will be the best #5 pitcher in baseball, which I guess will probably make him better than a #5.

Yeah, in general I get it and when I first saw the box score I thought he should have been pulled but then I saw they hadn't touched him. He struck out all three guys he actually faced. I would be comfortable if he had been pulled as well but have I said this before.... he struck out all three guys he faced before that. Plus he struck out Davis after the triple and no one seems to have a problem with that. I don't know how meaningful it is that he averages less than an inning if he is a one inning guy that also sometimes comes in mid inning which will also reduce his pitch per inning. It was a bad pitch that gave up the triple. Was it caused by fatigue or was it just a bad pitch?

Before Duke gave up the triple he had struck out three guys and gave up one intentional walk. After the triple he got his 4th strikeout. I tend to agree that a switch for Reed would have been reasonable but you know darn well that if Reed had come in and given up a 3 run homer there would be plenty of posters complaining about how Molitor was over managing and should have left Duke in because he had just struck out 3 guys and the only other guy that got on was intentionally walked (all right handed hitters I believe). I would be firmly in your camp if he had given up two hits or a couple unintentional walks. Leaving a guy in that no one has even put a ball in play against is defensible.

I'm the one that said it and I agree with you completely. A team playing poorly can beat a team playing well in a game though if you do the flow chart it is the least likely of outcomes. It still happens and maybe this game was one of those. I didn't see it so really can't judge. I'm just not a big fan of results only analysis. For example, I think the complaint about leaving Duke in is a valid one, all things considered but how many would be commenting on it if he had gotten out of the inning instead of giving up two runs? I might not agree with the guy that criticized Molitor for pinch hitting Grosman for Buxton but I respect it because he said it in spite of the fact that the move was successful. Its kind of like when Bert says a pitcher did well except for one mistake where the batter hit a home run. The guy might have thrown 20 pitches just like it or worse so is it really a mistake if the batter just happened to connect on one?

I don't like that logic either way in terms of qualifying how well the team plays. You can work the count to get your pitch and then still pop up or swing through a fastball or hit a line out right at someone.. That's just baseball and does not fall under the category of playing well. 1-9 with RISP is meaningless to me in that regard. At least in my book you can play well and still get beat but if it is results based then you cannot. I don't know if they played well or not but on the surface the only things I can point to is their guy made a great catch that probably saved the game for them. We had a pitch where Castro may or may not have given full effort that cost us. Playing well means taking professional at bats, taking extra bases where you can and not trying for those that are unlikely to succeed, hitting cutoffs, etc.. Take care of the little things and basically don't beat yourself. To me that is playing well. A team can play well and still get beat.

I always thought I was an optimist but maybe I am just a contrarian because I have a hard time being optimistic on a board full of posters that are fairly optimistic. My choice is to either say 100 wins or 76 wins. I think it interesting that all but 3 posters have the Twins at 90 wins or better while the staff come in with an average of 88.5. I think if the over/under were 86.5 I would have a tough choice. As far as Vegas is concerned the line is 82.5. Things still have to go right for the Twins to get in the mid 80's or above but I would put $100 on the over. Can someone do that for me please? Buxton will win Offensive player narrowly beating out Mauer who will compete for the batting title. Stealing bases, power and about a .350 OBP will give Buxton the nod. Sano with most homers. Lynn as starter of the year Reed as reliever of the year Romero as rookie of the year

Buxton is a little bit slump proof because of his bunting skills. I think that kept him afloat long enough for his other offensive skills to transition last year. I think it might be worth while for Kepler to work on that skill as well. Several years ago I was promoting Hicks to be the right handed batter in n outfield platoon. He would look pretty good in a platoon, 4th outfielder spot right now. At the time I never thought he would hit as a lefty and would have been happy to be proven wrong. Now not so happy that he is proving me wrong with the Yankees.

Slight distinction between being a 4th outfielder and being a back up outfielder. Granite appears to be our plan for regular starter should any of our three go down to injury. Basically insurance. Is a guy like that better prepared to be an every day starter for a few weeks by playing every day in the minors or will he be better prepared to be an every day starter by facing big league pitching sporadically as a 4th outfielder. As I said it is a slight distinction but one I think the Twins are considering. If each of our outfielders get 10 days off and Grossmann starts half of those then that reserve outfielder only starts one in 10 games. The rest of the time is running and fielding replacement. It has value but probably not much WAR difference between Granite and LaMarre in that SSS.

.263 ave with a .340 OBP. Or I can cherry pick and say the last time he had over 200 at bats was 2016 in AAA where he hit .303 with a .445 slugging. I am not advocating for him as a regular. I am not even advocating for him as a reserve. Just I am ok with the Twins giving him a shot. Its not like they are penciling Jason Bartlett to play center field.

I wish we had added a RH OFer as well. I always advocated for keeping Hicks as a platoon outfielder. if there was a right handed doppleganger for Kepler I would have been ok with a trade. Heck, if there was a right handed doppleganger for Granite I would prefer it but if there are good proven right handed outfielders out there they probably want more than 1 or two starts a week. Its not like LaMarre was a bad hitter in the minors. I'm ok whether they keep him or send him down at this point. The problem is that he is on a nice role right now but it hard to keep that momentum going with just an at bat or two here and there.

So he is a year older than guys that are really pretty young. He doesn't profile so well on some scouting sites but here is one take. "According to KATOH, Zack Granite is the No. 6 prospect — not on the Twins, but in all of baseball. Yes, slappy, scrappy, little Zack Granite ranks ahead of famous sons Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., to drop a couple names, and 17 spots ahead of Royce Lewis, the Twins’ top prospect and the first overall pick in last year’s amateur draft. Baseball America and MLB Pipeline think there are 26 Twins prospects better than Granite; KATOH thinks there are only five superior prospects in the whole dang sport. Here’s Mitchell’s explanation for why KATOH loves Zack Granite entering the 2018 season: Granite’s back for his second tour of duty on the All-KATOH team, and frankly, his prospect case has only improved. He’s still a speed demon who plays elite center-field defense, which takes most of the pressure off of his bat. But more importantly, his offensive numbers took a huge step forward in 2017, as he hit a ridiculous .338/.392/.475 in Triple-A with an elite 11% strikeout rate. He’s also 6-foot-1, which some might find surprising given his style of play." I truly believe he is the guy if one of our regulars goes down and I would rather him getting 20 at bats a week in the minors than 4 per week in the majors in preparation for that role. Judgement call. I am fine with him as the reserve outfielder also.

I've seen variations of this many times in the past such as "No team that is a serious contender would ever have a place for a guy like Nick Punto or Drew Butera" and then they move on and make teams that win championships. In fact, I think most teams do have that kind of guy or even a few of that guy. I am not advocating for LaMarre based on the cute story. If he is above average defense and if he is a good base runner then that potentially has value any given day in the late innings. If you want a right handed pinch hitter for Kepler, even if it is Grossman then you still want LaMarre in as defense. If the roster is constructed a certain way he may fit in with his skill set and he may not. Most reserves have flaws or they wouldn't be reserves. Granite might be a better reserve but if they want him playing every day as the insurance against a regular getting hurt then it makes sense to have someone else as a reserve with the Twins. I agree with you completely about questioning whether he is a fluke or legit. I like the ideas of guys reinventing themselves and the light turning on even in the late 20's but the ST training stats themselves should be taken with a grain of salt. I am reasonably sure he is not a true 1.307 OPS guy. If he is sent down it will be interesting to see what he does in the minors.

Will take a bit to get used to that picture. I was thinking more Walter Matthau or Jack Klugman instead of a guy young enough that he might not even know to whom I am referring.

Congrats Tom. Looking forward to reading your recaps this season.

Much like Scot Diamond back in the day, I think it is less a matter of the league figuring Duffey out and more a case of him just not pitching as well now as he did then.. Back then he was hitting corners with a tailing fastball and his curve ball was as good as anyone's. Since then his fastball has been erratic and his curve ball still breaks a lot but not quite as sharply or on as much of a downward plane according to my eye test. I think Busenitz deserves a spot. 28 appearances in the majors should trump 8 innings of ST ball. On the surface it looks like a lousy decision but all we see is the surface.

Back on my soapbox here. Your plan might be what the Twins are thinking and I hope it works out that way because it would mean we get some meaningful production out of him this year. Its the whole idea of shutting him down or limiting his innings that gets me. Any pitcher that has pain or fatigue should be given rest but the notion that a guy that has thrown 150 innings and is going strong should be shut down for 5 months and that rest somehow leads to accumulated ability to go another 20 innings the following year just doesn't make sense to me and has no real scientific backing that I have ever seen. I get trying to insure pitchers have the best chance of having a long career but I just don't think this does it. Blyleven along with others pitched 280 (at age 20) innings with no bad effect. Some guys blow out their arms 10 days into spring training. Just another case of managing out of fear. Get his form right. Try to keep him from over throwing and then monitor his health throughout the season.

Do you really think Berrios was rushed to the bigs early? I would guess that he could have been in the minors another 5 years and still would have gotten so amped up that he would have over thrown when he got up here. I say that because I think he still does sometimes. I think he might be farther along now if he had come up sooner, in fact. If when he came up he did the same things in the majors he did in the minors he would have been way more successful. It had less to do with his abilities and more to do with being human. Some can make the transition easy. For some it takes a while to calm the nerves and trust their stuff. Blyleven came up and was awesome right away at 19. Koufax came up and it took him 6 years to really get going. I don't know what the right course is for Romero. Its possible he is our best pitcher right now and that he is just wasting bullets pitching in the minors. Its possible there are things he should be working on without the pressures of the majors.

I give them an A as well. I don't really think Rodney is the guy and would rather have Cobb but otherwise I am pretty happy. Yet, I am not convinced the past front office would not have made these moves because lets face it, some of these appear to have fallen in our laps and the behavior of the other teams has not been anywhere near normal. We have gotten bargains which is what the prior group was always trying to get. They upped their ante back in the day with Pavano and Thome and others when trying to contend much like this group has. I could easily see them making every one of these moves. I think it is more a perfect storm. Any other year Lynn, Reed and Morrison would not have been available at these prices or this late. Twins would likely have made the Odorizzi move as well though this is probably the move for which I will give the current guys the most credit. They found a target and made an offer. That is to their credit. In the past the Twins would not have gotten Darvish either. Maybe its savvy and maybe its luck. Either way I will give them an A for being savvy and/or lucky.

I definitely didn't want a three year deal but resigned myself to the idea of a two year deal. One year deal at less than we thought a multiyear deal would get per year is really good. Would have preferred Cobb to a two year deal or Arrietta to a one year deal but this one is really solid. Rodney is the move I like least but all the others has to make this a top five off season in Twins history.