Brandon

What exactly is this and what does it mean? Well This is an over simplistic formula I use when looking at a power hitters performance. You are basically looking to see if the total number of extra base hits = a .100 batting average. You don’t even have to do the full math just know if it’s going to be more or less or on par, making it real easy to calculate. And its more fun right now then examining the Twins season this year! I realize there are better stats like slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+ but if I want to take a quick look without doing a lot of analyzing I can always do a quick glance at how many extra base hits does the power hitter have vs every 10 At Bats on the season. I noticed that an average power hitter will typically have 1 extra base hit for every 10 At Bats on the season meaning if the player has 300 At Bats this season they have 30 extra base hits they are an average power hitter. If a power hitter has fewer than 1 per 10 AB then the power is slumping so to speak, regardless of whether or not the player is hitting for average. The more extra base hits per 10 AB over 1 the better the power is showing this year. Let’s look at a few examples for fun: This year on our Twins team we have Escobar who has 49 extra base hits in 303 At Bats which is a crazy high ratio that’s 1 for every 6 At Bats or 50% more than an average power hitter or 2010 Justin Morneau before concussion territory see example further down this article. Rosario has 43 XBH in 328 AB for about 1 per 7.6 AB still 31% better than average ratio which is great. Kepler seems to be slumping in average, but he has 28 XBH in 283 At Bats which is average and why we are still holding out hope that he can get his average up and be a solid not great hitter. Dozier has 30 XBH in 322 AB. So, he is only slumping a little from average power production especially after losing that home run yesterday, but a lot from last year when he went 68 in 617 At Bats or the year before when he had 82 in 615 AB. Dozier is still flashing some power so if he goes on a nice little extra base binge of say 7 or 8 extra base hits in his next 45-50 AB he would be back to normal and probably looking like a little better trade chip. Morrison is at 21 XBH in 243 AB. This is why his production has been frustrating, because the power is below average as well as his average. If he had say 30 XBH and a .200 average, you would feel better about his production and feel like it’s a matter of time till his average come up some. But he is also slumping in the power department as well. This season Grossman is at 15 XBH in 212 AB which is way below acceptable for someone not hitting for average and getting on base at a high rate. 2 years ago he hit 31 XBH in 332 AB which is average power hitter with a high on base average and a big part of why he was kept around. Last year he went down a little 32 XBH in 382 AB and with a .360 on base average this is good production out of a back up player. But this season he is slumping in both on base and power and will not likely be back after this season. If you want to rehash bad memories you can go back and see that David Ortiz hit 53 XBH in 412 AB the season before we released him and he went to the Redsox…. We can also look at a few careers: Torii Hunter had 890 XBH in 8857 career AB. That is a career average power hitter. Justin Morneau had 619 XBH in 5699 AB or if you want to look at before his concussion in 2010. He was at 410 XBH in 3485 AB and had 44 XBH in 296 AB in his 2010 season which is around 1.5 XBH per 10 AB or 50% more than an average slugging season. Kirby Puckett had 678 XBH in 7244 AB but he was catching up career wise from such an awful start in his career when he had 17 XBH in 557 AB his first season and his second season wasn’t that much better either. Also you will be able to notice that his average is a bigger reason he was considered over 20% better than average hitter on OPS over his career than his power numbers. (other stats point that out as well, just saying this does too). Anyway I thought this is something that I have observed throughout the years and thought I would share my little system for quick glancing power numbers. Have fun with this and share thoughts and stuff below.

Sign Ramos as a Free Agent thos offseaon and let Garver compete with Castro for time next year. Use this season to work with Garver some more. I say this as someone who raised the white flag after the front office did nothing after the issues started popping up.

When the new prospect list comes out, will the top 20 list here get updated to the new list?

Have we signed anyone else yet? And how many top 30 are left?

Oakland is in the Wildcard race and we have pitchers to trade for pool money. Santana Odorizzi Mejia Reed Rodney I wonder if we could get 3-4 million pool money as part of a trade with Oakland?

Addison Reed came to Minnesota cause its closer to his wifes family. Being 500 miles or less most of the time is better than 2000 right?

Another arguement for extending him is he may prefer to stay here. Isnt he from Missourri? Thats not too far away. His other options would be Kansas city, Chicago's and St. Louis maybe Cleveland, Detroit, or Cincinnatti if he wants to be closer to home...

This is a good article and i think its funny that I was trying to think how much it would cost to do a three year extention for him. We are in a competetive window and I do expect to have Buxton and Sano back next season and Polanco all season. I came up with Year 1 at 9 million Year two and three at 13 - 15 million and maybe a split option where the Twins can pick up a 4th year at 15/16 million or Gibson can exercise a player option at 6-9 million with a buyout..... With Berrios and Romero from the farm and Odorizzi and Pineda with Mejia, Slegers, Littell, Gonsalvez, May, Kohl Stewart? And maybe Lewis Thorpe among others as crazy good depth. Graterol may be ready by the end of next season... Until Pineda shows he still has it, its good to have replacements ready just in case.

Looks like we are going to be in good shape heading into the offseason. There arent too many players i would be worried about loosing in the rule 5 draft.

A lot of things will have to break right for that to happen. Polanco will have to hit the ground running. Sano and Buxton will have to return soon and hit at their capabilities. Garver and Astrudillo will need to hit and play passable defense at C. We need production out of Morrison in the .800 OPS range minimum moving forward and Grossman to get on base at a .360 + clip moving forward. Mauer to hit doubles and get on base at .360+ clip as well. A little better consistancy out of our 3, 4, & 5 starters. And no new injuries or player issues moving forward. I think if all this happens we have a 50/50 shot. But I optimistically give this a 10 percent maybe 20 percent chance all things will go the Twins way moving forward. Because the Twins have so many game left against Cleveland, I will wait up to 2-3 weeks to see where the team is going and how Sano and Buxton are doing. But I am leaning strongly towards selling so we can race to tje bottom for more top draft picks.

I've been arguing that the Twins front office should have made a few moves a few weeks back that wouldn't cost alot but the front office has done nothing but sit back and watch the team die. I guess I am ready to give up on this season too and join the race to the bottom. Its too bad too cause Pohlad spent money this year on payroll and the front office just went on vacation after spring training and said we'll be back after the allstar break to see if we need to do anything. I guess now they do. They need to shed money cause the fans shouldn't want to pay to see this crap and I'm sure Pohlad doesn't want to pay for it either. So with our loss today we are around 9-10 games below .500. Time to join in with the negative peeps here and start rooting for the race to the bottom and hope we trade enough pieces to make a dent in that race. Kansas City has such a big lead over us as the worst team in the league. How many players are we gonna have to trade to overtake Chicago and Kansas City in the draft standings? The goal for this trade deadline is not about getting value back as its a buyers market. This is more about ensuring we are so bad we can make up ground in the draft standings. Good luck to the front office. You cant make moves to win in season, maybe they can do a better job of throwing in the towel.

How many starters are above Jorge? Sledgers, Mejia, Gonsalvez, Romero, Kohl Stewart, Thorpe with others including Graterol comming along too. That is why Jorge was DfAd. Not saying it was the right move just we have depth there. He is comming back from injury so now is the best time to try to sneak him through waivers.

No i am saying we do not have any established replacements at C. Garver is not hitting much and the other guy is not hitting at all. There are C out there who will not cost much to aquire due to contract status Morrison is not fully breaking out of his slump / Mauer may not have much left in the tank. So haveing someone else come in at DH / 1B is a good idea. Polanco and Buxton are almost back. That would be 4 hitters in the lineup being upgtaded over what is out there now. That would give us our best chance as we would have Kepler and the Eds and hopefully Dozier can turn it up some and our lineup goes back to being solid top to bottom.

So lets just focus on the negativity and toss the positives. If we do that then, the author is a horrible writer...I am a horrible career person, .....everyone fails. My personal evaluation of Molitor is he has gotten alot out of players, he does overuse some of his pen, but for this season Molitors biggest fault is the collapse of the offense to injury, suspension and slumps. Baserunning blunders are annoying but I bet they go down when there is less pressure to make things happen because the rest of the lineup can pick up its share of the slack. The players seem to respect Molitor and i think he has done the best with what he has. My beef is the front office not going out and trading for a C and maybe a new DH / 1B to help fill holes in the offense.

If we are not going to get a good return on trades for prospects, why sell? are you wanting to gun for draft position? is that a fun way to go for the summer when we should have a competitive team day in and day out? (that is when Buxton and Polanco returns, we find a hitting C and Morrison picks up or we replace him with someone who does.

Didnt the Rangers win a division title once while being 10 games under .500 at 52-62? I think it was back in 1994. They might have been worse had it not been for the strike. That had to be the worst division of all time.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. The pitching is slightly better than league average. Our offense has cratered for all kinds of reasons from injury, suspension, to needing a redo. 2 of our offensive pieces are comming back. We can literally sign a player to push our .190 hitting DH for league minimum. We can aquire a C for a prospect probably a B-\C+prospect. We have lots of those. If we can turn it around with that, GREAT! It will turn around into a fun season. If not we can sell at the end of July/ August lots of time to give up. Yes our odds arent great, but they are not zero either. But i guess some just like to quit without trying.

Everyone gets an opinion. Some of us are smart enough to diagnose why we are loosing and figure potential fixes. While they may or may not work being defeated at this point makes me wonder why that person would bother to be a fan at all if they give up at the first sign of struggle to the top. They must be french...

The Twins are where they are because they lost 4 or 5 starting players for various reasons 1. Buxton to slump, headaches, slump, and broken toe. He should be back very soon 2. Polanco suspension and finger slam in door. Should be back soon too. 3. Castro out for season we could use a low cost veteran like texas C or Ramos. They shouldnt cost too much to get either. 4. Sano replaced by Escobar but Sano may be back. 5. Morrison is still hitting under .200. There are a few options out there if he cant start hitting soon. There were 2 potential DH released this year hanley Ramirez is one of them. He can go to AAA for a few weeks and he shows he can hit he should be better than what Morrison has been. 6. Mauer has been affected by concussions and is back. We will see if he can go back to hitting. So a new C and DH with Polanco and Buxton comming back and hopefully Sano we might be able to make a run out of this season yet. The pitching is good enough. And plus this is likely a buyers market so we dont have anything to gain by selling. We are not likely to get premium prospects if we do sell. "Might as well win the whole "F"ing thing."

Normally i would agree but Miami needs quantity in pitching right now and i have on my list 3 potential 3-5 ranked starting pitchers which go a long way and 2 relievers and a starting 2B. 1 player does not win its a team effort and Miami needs pitching real badly. Also i just mentioned those 5 as a starting point to steer the offer away from offense oriented prospects. These guys are in the high minors and can contribute in short order at the major league level, even this year. We could swap out Thorpe for Enlow, and Bard for Sampson or Poppin if you want to stay with higher rated or more starters.....PLAY with the offer of Pitchers and see if you can come up with one that makes sense.

I am all for trading for a C for a ryn this seaaon. The offense needs all the help it can get. My first preference is Ramos cause he would cost significantly less. But Realmuto is one I would want too. Especially if we can sign him to a 4 year extention after the season with all our payroll flexibilty so he can be here for the duration of our contention window. Also our DH sux so he can fill in there 20 - 30 games a season to get more ABs and play 140 - 150 games a season. I would start a package with Gordon since he is from there and a good marketing draw for them. Killerhoff is on the table or I think they would prefer pitchers. Look at their pitching in the majors and minors its awful. Mejia, Thorpe, May, would give them 3 potential starting pitchers, 2 with major league experience and Businitz to go along with Gordon maybe add Bard and that gives the Marlins 5 pitchers who will likely contribute at the major league level and a local boy who was a first round draft pick to put at 2B. Thats a good haul and doesnt affect our future too much. For shnitz and giggles we could absorb part of a contract for one of their relievers too. Play around with the list of pitchers as there are many to choose from. I choose my list from pitchers that the current regime didnt aquire or have an investment in personally. Bard was already left off 40 man and looks capable in pen, May should be starting not relieving so this is good for him, Mejia was a top 100 propect as was May I think and Gordon and Thorpe had to be close at one point.

Im still of the opinion that we just need to be able to tread water a few more weeks. We do need to win the next two against Texas but we will have Buxton and Polanco back very soon. With Mauer, Dozier, and Kepler in supporting offense and the Eds producing we will only have a hole at DH and C in the lineup so as long as Buxton is ready to hit the lineup has the potential to improve. The pitching is solid. Not worried about keeping Belisle at this point he is going in low leverage situations anyways and will be gone soon id the runs continue to pile up on his record. So once we have all but Sano back, what will it take to get the offensive light turned on?

Lets start with whats wrong with the offense. 2B Dozier is slumping SS Polanco was suspended but will be back im two/three weeks and his replacement has actually been ok, Adriannza with a .725 ish OPS. This looks bad because we need bats so bad but he is about a league average bat with good defense and baserunning... DH Morrison slumping with power and average. C Castro Injured and out for the season 3B,1B,DH Sano lost and in A Ball to loose weight and regain batting swing. CF Buxton slumping and injured. RF Kepler and Grossman. Both are not far from being productive. Both need improvements in average. 3 things need to occur to fix the offense. 1. Buxton needs to come back with an .800-.850 OPS minimum. 2. Either Morrison or Dozier or both need to decide to step up and hit .800-.850 OPS minimum 3. C is as close to an automatic out as can be. We need a hitter who can have a .750 OPS and we probably need to aquire him. Tampa has this guy and we can probably trade for him. Or Garver has to step up and decide to hit. If these three things happen our lineup will score a lot more. Bonus. I think we will see a Sano that is 15-20 lbs lighter and ready to go come August 1-15th ish...

I like Jim Kaats idea of making games 7 innings instead of 9. That takes care of pace of play problem and keeps starting pitchers relevant.

If Sano, Morrison, Dozier, Polanco, and Buxton were hitting like they were supposed to then the Twins would be superior to Cleveland as we have more balanced pitching. Here's to hoping we have all this in the second half of the season.