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Everything posted by Riverbrian
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Report From The Fort: Berrios Gone, Duffey v. Mejia
Riverbrian replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm not shocked...I'm not disappointed either.- 90 replies
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- jose berrios
- tyler duffey
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(and 1 more)
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Is this racism or culture clash in baseball?
Riverbrian replied to TheLeviathan's topic in The Sports Bar
Ian basically kinda did the "With all due respect thing" before he made his statements so he is free to say anything. I learned that from Rickie Bobbie in Talladega Nights. Ian Kinsler and Goose Gossage are the ambassadors of how baseball is played in America I guess. It was Goose who stepped up after the bat flip and said. "Bautista is a [expletive] disgrace to the game. He’s embarrassing to all the Latin players, whoever played before him". Not only is there this unwritten historical force to produce uniform sameness in style, personality and presentation in the game of baseball that dates back generations... but... everyone... please... stop and think about this. There is an unwritten historical system of retribution in place to enforce it. IMO... The Game is Beautiful and stuck in the past and in need of a refreshen. -
Is this racism or culture clash in baseball?
Riverbrian replied to TheLeviathan's topic in The Sports Bar
My response is "Don't worry Ian... the kids aren't watching anyway". Maybe Ian wasn't paying attention while MLB has been debating pace of play and other rule changes in an attempt to make the game more attractive to younger viewers and... and... also to minorities. Ian may not have seen the data that strongly suggests that baseball TV audiences are 50% over the age of 55 and 83% White and trending the wrong way. It's not a big deal for Ian in the end. He will be out of the game and will have cashed his paychecks when the TV revenue drys up and the stadiums are empty because the youth just never warmed to a 1950's idea of respect for the game. -
Look what happened to the Twins after Cuddyer left
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Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins
Riverbrian replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
What Sano really needs is a big Thome type lefty hitting right behind him. And... That ability to lay off pitches out of the zone that he had his rookie year. Those two things And... Focus on defense... OK... Those three things. And... this lamp OK... those 4 things and -
I think there are some important things for Polanco to work on. Footwork primarily to increase the accuracy of throws... but Arm Strength? I'm not buying it. http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/7417714/v706450083/mindet-polanco-makes-great-diving-stop-for-the-out It took an arm to make this play... he could do it again.
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I was watching a one on one basketball game between David Blaine and Lebron James. Everytime Lebron touched the basketball. Blaine would make the ball disappear. Blaine won the game 8 to nothing.
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Column: Does a Robbie Grossman Trade Make Sense?
Riverbrian replied to Brandon Warne's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I gotta agree with Brock. We got him for free last year and in my opinion his value right now isn't much higher because I think he has to do it again. He was one of our top hitters last year (small bar) but all that is worth to us is a back up role apparently. How much is a Twins backup worth? I can't even see getting a Pat Light return until July at the earliest if Grossman shows he can do it again. And for additional consideration... I still think it's possible that Grossman comes North as our starting DH. -
I'm guessing Tonkin and one of Santana/Adrianaza. Santana and Adrianaza could both survive if they decide to start Vargas and Park both in Rochester which I would not rule out. Otherwise there is no 25 man spot left for both in my opinion. Tonkin could stay if they 60 day DL Perkins and send Chargois down to Rochester. Or... decide to send Gimenez down to Rochester and go with Murphy in Minnesota... and send Chargois down to Rochester. I personally think that is too much to ask and I can't see them keeping Tonkin.
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Report From The Fort: From Ks To Praise
Riverbrian replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I used to make catches like that playing local softball well into my 30's. The only injury I suffered was the loss of my ability to realize it was only softball. -
Twins Roster Projection 2017: Version 3.0
Riverbrian replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I read 78 reported in the Pioneer Press but Brian Murphy made it sound deliberate at this stage of rehab. I don't like the word shoulder and I still find that to be the scariest word in the whole article.- 85 replies
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- brian dozier
- joe mauer
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Report From The Fort: From Ks To Praise
Riverbrian replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This team needs a go get everything type defender. I'll be surprisingly comfortable holding my breath each time. -
Yes You are crazy... Clearly crazy But... The world needs more of your kind of crazy!
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Twins Roster Projection 2017: Version 3.0
Riverbrian replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
BTW... What I'd do if I were Falvey/Levine at this very moment, I'd use the exact same logic for the Rotation and bullpen. I would have the same 11 position player locks and for the final two spots... I would start both Vargas and Park in Rochester but instead of going with both Adrianaza and Santana. I would get real serious about defense and cut Santana and I would sign Brett Lawrie. Yeah I know... Lawrie isn't exciting anyone right now. He can't stay healthy... Yeah I know... But let's get serious about defense if we are going to take a step in that direction. Lawrie is one of the best defensive 3B in the game and he has a run into walls mentality and some pop. He'd be an exceptional backup who can also play 2B or even OF if needed. With Vargas and Park in AAA... Sano can play an occasional DH while Lawrie plays an occasional 3B. You don't have to sign him to a 6 year deal. Just a 1 year deal and let's see if he can find that potential he once had. It'll just cost us Santana.- 85 replies
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- brian dozier
- joe mauer
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(and 3 more)
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Twins Roster Projection 2017: Version 3.0
Riverbrian replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Here's Mine: Santana, Gibson, Santiago, Hughes, Mejia, Kinzler, Pressly, Belisle, Rogers, Chargois, Breslow and Haley are the arms. Castro, Jimenez, Mauer, Dozier, Polanco, Adrianaza, Sano, Escobar, Rosario, Grossman, Buxton, Santana and Kepler are the hitters. If anyone wants to read a long post... I'll show my work below. I think you have to work backwards from the current 40 man to end up with the answer. 1. 40 Man is currently full 2. Trevor May will be placed on the 60 Day DL opening up 1 spot. 3. It hasn't been determined what will happen with Perkins but I don't think Perkins will want to wait until June 1 so I think he will be placed on the new 10 day so we won't get a second 40 man slot without exposing someone else to waivers. 4. So... Now you have to ask yourself... who would the Twins (not you or me but the Twins brass) be comfortable losing or believe they can slide through waivers and retain to open up an extra 40 man slot. Bullpen possible 40 man cut considerations: Boshers, O'Rourke, Tonkin and Haley and Position Player Possible 40 man cuts: Santana, Adrianaza and Vargas. I do not believe anybody else on the 40 man is a serious cut consideration. 5. Next you have to determine who they would add to the 40 man roster so they can put them on the 25 man. 6. Gimenez... Gimenez looks like he has clearly out performed Murphy and I think he is the 1st choice to add to the roster and take over May's open 40 man spot. Personally... I'm not a fan of both Garver and Murphy climbing over each other for playing time in Rochester but I think Gimenez is the clear back up choice based on performance in a small sample size and MLB experience. 7. Breslow... If Breslow is making the team and it sounds like he might. Someone has to go off the 40 man to make room. Boshers and O'Rourke have options and do not have to be exposed to waivers and can be stashed as depth and this makes them more valuable in my eyes and that means that either Tonkin or Haley will have to be removed from the 40 man to make room for Breslow. I think they like Haley and would like to keep him around. They had the 1st selection in the rule 5 and could have taken anybody they wanted and this is the guy they wanted. If they can't work out a trade for Haley with Boston... Tonkin has to be the one who is released. I believe someone will claim Tonkin. Say your goodbyes now. 8. The only other option for keeping Tonkin on the roster while making room for Breslow and hanging on to Haley would be for a roster cut of either Santana, Adrianaza or Vargas but you have to ask yourself this... Is Tonkin worth hanging on to at any expense. And perhaps most importantly... Keeping Tonkin means keeping him on the 25 man and that means that either Rogers or Chargois will not have a spot on the 25 man. Tonkin has to be gone. 9. Vogelsong... I think the May injury opened a door for Vogelsong but in the end... common sense will prevail and a 39 year old with an 88 MPH fastball that also hasn't put up good numbers for 4 years and hasn't put up good numbers in Ft. Myers this year... and... and... must be added to the 40 man and cause releasing someone else to accommodate his questionable addition is too much to overcome. I don't think it will happen but if it does... HE BETTER BE WORTH IT!!! His addition will cost us a lefty bullpen option or a Haley... or one of Santana, Adrianaza or Vargas. I wouldn't trade any of those choices straight up for Vogelsong... I just don't see it happening. 10. There should be 13 position player spots available for the 25 man roster. I am assuming that Castro, Gimenez, Mauer, Dozier, Polanco, Escobar, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler and Grossman are locks. That's 11 and it leaves two positions for Santana, Adrianaza, Vargas, Park or a surprise. 11. Park... He looks great but he was taken off the 40 man and he would have to be re-added to the 40 man in order to make the 25 man and this will cost us a player. No matter how well Park has performed in the spring. I think it's simply easier to stash him in AAA and wait until the 1st injury to call him up. We will have more data on who should come off the 40 man to make room by then and more data on how Park is doing in AAA. He doesn't need to be rushed onto a roster spot. 12. Kennys Vargas... The Twins secured an extra option for Vargas so he can be sent down and I'm betting that there are some in the meeting rooms who are advocating that. And Surprisingly... I also think he should be sent down to Rochester to start the season. Here's the deal... I am personally a big Vargas fan... The ball comes off his bat at 12 Million miles an hour... I think he can become a nice contributor and I've said many times that he was screwed by Molitor last year after having a beautiful July and he is my poster boy as a result. But... Man... He looks real messed up right now. First off... he has been beaten out of the starting Puerto Rico 1B job by someone called TJ Rivera who is the #30 Prospect in the Mets system and not even a 1B. Vargas has played very little and when he has played it has been strikeout after strikeout. The WBC has been horrible for him and he is missing valuable fix whatever is wrong with him time in Ft. Myers. He looks like he has to solve some issues in Rochester. However... I think if the Twins send him to Rochester... and use up that one option right away... He's done because hat means he gets called up when someone goes on the 15 day DL and he will have a short window to prove himself with possible limited playing time and when someone returns from the DL... he will be exposed to waivers if he doesn't establish himself from the get go and that will be about the same time that other squads will be looking for a big hitter on the cheap to replace an injury or something... So... He will be gone. So in conclusion and in clearly twisted logic. The only chance that Vargas has is: Make the opening day roster when he doesn't look ready and give him the DH job when he doesn't look ready and hope he finds his stroke in the short meantime. Will the Twins do this? I'm not so sure... I would... but will the Twins? I think Point #13 may happen instead. 13. Adrianaza and Santana... Here is where it gets interesting to me... On the Surface it looks simple... Either Adrianaza and Santana for one spot and either Park or Vargas for the other spot and call it done. Neither Adrianaza or Santana have options available and both would have to be exposed to waivers and it is possible that both could clear waivers... But... I think Molitor wants Santana to stay and I think Falvey/Levine want Adrianaza to stay as Polanco defensive insurance. I would be both surprised and not surprised if both Adrianaza and Santana take the final roster spots while Vargas and Park are both in Rochester to start the year. Santana is currently the spring training AB leader and he is playing every single position that Molitor can think of... He is clearly being test drove and I think Adrianaza was added for a reason. I'm not saying this will happen but I am saying that I will not rule this out. 14. Grossman becomes the everyday DH if #13 happens and his time in the OF will be very limited as a result. Vargas and Park will compete real hard for that next man up position. If anyone gets hurt...anyone besides a catcher and Vargas or Park will be called up. Because Grossman can play some OF and we have IF Depth coming out of our ears. 15. Surprise considerations: Let's look at them... I don't think Shuck or Stubbs will make the squad. They haven't lit the grapefruits on fire and that's what they needed to do. Paulsen not likely because it would mean that Paulsen beat Park out for the job in spring training and he did not do that. If Park is going down for convenience than Paulsen can conveniently not make the 25 man. 16. The 5th spot in the rotation. I have ruled Vogelsong out using common sense in point #9. Haley did not grab the job with both hands and will have to be hid in the back of the bullpen instead of thrown directly to the wolves. So unless the Twins grab a last minute cut from another roster which is possible. The 5th spot will go to someone on the 40 man and it's either Berrios, Mejia or Duffey. Flip a three headed coin and stay tuned to TwinsDaily. I'll say Mejia right now based upon that 11 strikeout performance but I will change my mind to Berrios if he is lights out in the WBC Championship game. On the other hand Duffey looked great today and he looked great in 2015. So... Santana, Gibson, Santiago, Hughes, Mejia, Kinzler, Pressly, Belisle, Rogers, Chargois, Breslow and Haley are the arms. Castro, Jimenez, Mauer, Dozier, Polanco, Adrianaza, Sano, Escobar, Rosario, Grossman, Buxton, Santana and Kepler are the hitters. This isn't what I would do... It's what I think the Twins will do.- 85 replies
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- brian dozier
- joe mauer
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(and 3 more)
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Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins
Riverbrian replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Dylan Bundy spent the first half of last year in the bullpen before moving into the rotation on July 17. The Orioles did it on purpose to limit his innings. David Phelps was the primary set up guy for the Marlins before he was moved into the rotation in August out of necessity. He performed well in both roles. I'm pretty sure the Marlins strongly considered Phelps in the rotation in 2017 because he did so well as a starter but... in the end... they like the idea of an Andrew Miller type guy in the bullpen and they now see Phelps as that type of guy. Danny Duffy started in the bullpen and was moved to the rotation in late May. Duffy ended up being the top Pitcher for the Royals by far and one of the best starters in the American league period. Mike Montgomery was in the bullpen and performing real well for the Mariners when they asked him to join the rotation July 10th. He made two starts for the Mariners and was traded to the Cubs and he went back into the bullpen for a full month and 7 appearances and then tossed back into the rotation for 5 starts. Montgomery did well in both roles. I'm willing to bet... that Montgomery ends up back in the rotation in 2017 after Anderson gets his 400th injury. Chris Devenski bounced around a little for the Astros. I'm sure he will start in the bullpen in 2017 and will be called on to start at some point and he has the talent to remain a starter afterwards. The Indians have talent in that rotation but not a ton of depth... I'd be willing to bet they'd move Zach McAllister back into the rotation if necessity requires it and McAllister has the talent to stick. I heard the Angels GM say they signed Petit for the bullpen because he can be moved into the rotation if needed. Adam Warren could easily find his way into the Yankees rotation with the demise of one starter. Watch the Dodgers this year as they cleverly use the DL and bullpen to keep starters off waivers and hold depth. Is the argument That it never happens? That it never works? That the pitchers will be broken soon after? Just because there are only a few examples every year... it doesn't mean that it's a bad idea. -
I'm a big believer in chemistry and I do believe that anything is possible in this great game and I don't want to sound dismissive with an idea that I actually believe in. However... I want to state that it was our veterans that were the main cause of 2016... not the youth and I'm growing tired of any narrative that suggests otherwise. When you sort by At Bats... 7 out of the top 10 were veteran ball players. When you sort by Games Started... 6 out of the top 8 were veteran pitchers. And... We were not overflowing with youth in the bullpen either so we can't hang our bullpen issues on Chargois or Light. It wasn't youth that brought us down... Molitor willingly went down with the ship of veteran leaders. Polanco and Kepler were watching on the bench and consistently not playing while our vets had us out of the race by the end of April. If we are bringing in Veterans to help teach our youth. I think those veterans should probably start by teaching our veterans since those are the guys that Molly will play. If you want to change this type of culture. You do it by demanding performance. You do it be raising expectation. You won't get there by giving vets a pass and then complaining about the youth. It's time to actually sing for your supper. Instead of going down with the ship in 2017... Toss them overboard until you find a core of performers that can keep the ship afloat.
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Twins Need To Be Buyers Next Winter
Riverbrian replied to Tom Froemming's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Great first post! Welcome to TD Yes... We are missing our chance to sell high on Dozier based upon the numbers he produced last year and length of contract remaining. However... it is clearly not our chance to sell high based upon the market. It seems natural to extend Dozier if his market never materializes... I mean why give him away. However... if his market value never materializes that means that he has very little value and shouldn't be extended because value is value when it comes time to make those decisions. Supply and Demand He's great... but if everyone has got one? That means he can be replaced at less cost. In the end... I think the 2B Market will shift favorably and he will get moved before he hits free agency. -
Risk Management: Backing Up Buck
Riverbrian replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
AND EXPOSE DANTANA TO WAIVERS? -
Opening Day Roster Projection -- Take Two
Riverbrian replied to Brandon Warne's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Service time is a consideration... not the determination factor. I'm saying performance on the field and backup plans for injuries and poor performance are the main considerations. -
Opening Day Roster Projection -- Take Two
Riverbrian replied to Brandon Warne's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Kubel and Bartlett I was fine with at the time and still am in hindsight because it could have worked. However... Like Vogelsong... I never understood what they tried to do with Bartlett when Bonifocio was available to handle the same type of role but (in my opinion) better at it. I personally believe the Twins could have done better than Vogelsong but will give him a chance to earn a job as long as the Twins are willing to change direction when performance dictates. Optioning Buxton to start Stubbs? Absolutely Not... Because Buxton was starting to show something at the end of the year so now you let him continue doing the job. But... Yeah... Have a backup plan in case he struggles. We all need Plan B's and Exit strategies and the Twins have been pretty bad with Plan B's and exit strategies in my opinion. Berrios... Duffey and Mejia did not show anything last year at the MLB level to make anyone say... the job belongs to them out of the gate in 2017. I don't like burning service time with training wheels and history has proven again and again that you will need 8 to 10 pitchers to make starts during the year and you can't stash vets in AAA. So let them compete for the first man up in Rochester. We will see all of them sooner eventually if they perform. I'll give anyone a chance to prove themselves. What I want the Twins to start doing is replacing the ones who are not (Plouffe) and playing the ones who are (Vargas). I'd like the players to determine their fate on the field with actual performance. -
Risk Management: Backing Up Buck
Riverbrian replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yep Never ask a player to turn it off... Ever. We need more players like this... Not less. You practice these type of plays to get better at doing them when they count. Basketball players are worthless when they play carefully with 4 fouls trying to avoid the 5th. It's the GM's job to have a suitable replacement whenever injuries occur and injuries occur even if they are bubble wrapped. You can't spend 24 million on a guy who frames pitches because of the advantage it gives pitchers and then turn around and say that the advantage of robbing that guy of a triple isn't worth the risk. -
Risk Management: Backing Up Buck
Riverbrian replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This would be the keeping Escobar, Adrianaza and Danny Santana scenerio. -
Opening Day Roster Projection -- Take Two
Riverbrian replied to Brandon Warne's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I can't argue with any of this. Also... Admittedly... I have also been neglecting consideration of Haley when I'm laying out my personal depth chart and I probably shouldn't do that. I am also hopeful that Gonzalves or someone else can rise to option status later in the season. I'm just simply OK with Berrios... Duffey and Mejia starting in Rochester because I know it won't be long. As for Vogelsong... I can think of 20 other guys that I would have went with instead but I will allow Falvey/Lavine the benefit of the doubt since they are new and simply pray that if he doesn't work out... he's removed quickly and maybe then... one of Berrios or Duffey or Mejia will have produced some data to determine which one of them is best suited to replace him. Same goes for Hughes... Santiago and GIbson. I'm worrying less about who is starting the year and worrying more about who is allowed to finish the year. This may all be for nothing anyway... If Mejia pitches like he did today again. He may force his way into that 5th spot. -
Opening Day Roster Projection -- Take Two
Riverbrian replied to Brandon Warne's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Moderator Note: Everyone relax a little. Don't make personally directed posts and don't take things personal.

