Riverbrian

I'm all for gaining assets. However... I can't help but wonder what happens to Kennys if Napoli is brought on board. It sure looks like a one or the other type situation. Vargas is 9 years younger Vargas is probably 6 million dollars cheaper. Vargas had better stats last year. ' I have no idea how anybody is in the clubhouse but Napoli better be good in that clubhouse.

This post isn't intended to start a Terry Ryan debate. It isn't even to point out past mistakes or successes. It's simply to illustrate that it's about assets. It's about shopping at Dollar General for the past 5 years. Past 5 year outside bullpen acquisitions: Rodney (Free Agent 1 year 4.5 million) Watson (Trade) Belisle (Free Agent 1 Year 2 Million) Breslow (minor league deal) Abad (minor league deal) Kintzler (Minor league deal) Boshers (minor league deal) Graham (Rule 5) Boyer (minor league deal) Jepsen (Trade) Cotts (Trade) Pino (Minor League Deal) Stephen Pryor (Trade) Jason Adam (Trade) Twins cost to acquire outside bullpen assets: 6.5 Million (all spent by Falvey and Lavine), Half Years of Brandon Kintzler, Kendrys Morales and Josh Willingham... Plus a Mid Range prospect with potential in Chih-Wei Hu and a bunch of minor league deals at the MLB minimum. Bullpen Assets trade acquisitions: Willingham to Royals for Jason Adam Morales to Mariners for Stephen Pryor Graham to Yankees for PTBNL or Cash Abad to Red Sox for Pat Light Kintzler to Nats for Austin Watson Most would agree that the Twins were in selling position at trade deadlines for 4 of the past 5 years. Yet didn't have bullpen assets to sell when all contenders are looking for them. When the Twins did find themselves in buying position... they paid a pretty heavy price. Bullpens need to be prioritized a little higher than Dollar General to prepare for good seasons and bad seasons. The Yankees got serious about their bullpen and built a super one. Watched the team fail with a super bullpen in 2016 and cashed it in... they acquired Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield. The Yankees then rebuilt another super bullpen and will use at least one of those acquired prospects to outbid the Twins for the services of Gerrit Cole. If the Yankees shock the world and fail in 2018 because Judge and Stanton strike out too much... They can trade Chapman, Betences, Robertson, Kahnle, Greene and Warren for more top 100 prospects.

This "too risky" thing is getting a little out of control. There is risk when you sign any player to multi year contracts and the highways are littered with bad contracts. The percentages may or may not be higher in the bullpen but bad contracts are not unique to bullpen free agents... it is however... less painful from a cost standpoint. The Astros got burned for 18 million spread over 3 years signing Tony Sipp. They still won a world series and getting burned like that didn't stop them from spending even more this year with the signings of Joe Smith and Hector Rondon to two year deals. Would have been worse for the Astros if they signed Jason Heyward to an 8 year 184 Million Dollar deal. The Mets got burned for 12 million over two years signing Antonio Bastardo. It didn't stop them from spending even more money on Anthony Swarzak this year. Would have been worse for the Mets... if they signed Chris Davis to a 7 year 161 million dollar deal. The Tigers got burned for 11 million over two years signing Mark Lowe... I guess it is possible that that may have stopped them. They ain't spending money right now. However... it could have been worse for the Tigers... if they would have signed Jordan Zimmerman to a 5 year 110 million dollar deal.... wait... they did. There is simply risk and it can't be avoided... anytime you sign a player to a contract. The risk increases with each year you attach. If any GM's or Owners are risk adverse and afraid of signing a bad contract. They should get out of baseball and focus on death and taxes.

Yep The Twins and Rays actually seem to match up well as trading partners. We got some young hitters and they got some experienced pitching.

If they do. I want new guys running the front office immediately!

Perfectly summed up.

I've figured it out. He is meeting with teams in order... based on the size of contract. Working from least amount offered to largest amount offered. The Twins will be the last team he meets with. I hope nobody takes this post... or any post of mine... seriously.

Personally, I'm not going to worry about a meeting... that much... at least not yet. Maybe one is scheduled for later. Maybe the Cubs and Astros need the meeting to throw a hail mary because they are behind. Maybe the Cubs and Astros need the meeting because they are offering less and they have some B.S. to peddle. Maybe the Cubs and Astros need the meeting to get a quick assessment on probability before determining if they need to move on to Arrieta or Cobb. I'll worry later. Although... it sure would be a lot easier if we didn't have 29 other teams to contend with on EVERYTHING!!!

Pay the Man He's earned it

So if we need 24 of them... Asking for 7 seems reasonable.

We don't seem to be too far away. As long as neither of us assume that either of us is not advocating doing it only with bullpen or ignoring the bullpen entirely. I'm a 25 man guy I want 25 men on the roster who can all contribute to victory. I'd like the Twins to top the Astros in all phases. I'm praying that we sign Darvish. I just don't believe that Money that was previous allocated to filling out a bullpen is sustainable at that budget rate anymore for any team... and absolutely not... for any team that considers themselves contenders.

Kab repeatedly asked for some sort of tangible proof of a correlation and that's why I asked him to do the same thing to support his side and that was the context for the quote you highlighted. My contention is that you will not find that proof either way because this is such a new thing. Kab has my respect... I think he's very knowledgeable but he was a little heavy handed asking for proof without proving his opinion. (Which I respect without proof because I'm sure he came by it honestly). I'm not contending that a bullpen is the single most important thing. It may come across that way because I'm strongly advocating the need for it. I liked what you put together (Gave you a like) and I appreciated your effort but limiting the discussion to the past 4 world series winners makes what is already a too small sample size even smaller by ignoring the Yankees Bullpen last year and the Indians Bullpen Last Year and the Year before that. The set of data is just too new since it seemed to start with the Royals. I come by my opinion honestly... I watched the Royals in 2014 do amazing things with a bunch of young energetic position players that were able to put up crooked numbers with a very average starting rotation still keeping it close. Then that scary bullpen would hit the stage and they overcame the average rotation and almost got the job done if it wasn't for Bumgarner and then get the job done in 2015 against the big scary Mets rotation. I watched the Indians acquire Andrew Miller in 2016 and then I watched Francona put him in the game in the 4th inning and then leave him in for the 5th and 6th before turning it over to Shaw or whoever. I watched Francona put Miller in the 7th inning the very next day when everyone would assume he was toast and I realized that Francona just created a new valuable thing and everybody needed one. It's my opinion... that if the Twins would have acquired Miller under similar circumstances. He would have been the traditional 8th inning set up guy or closer and locked into that role. Francona showed everyone a new way to do it. Put him in... regardless if the team was ahead or behind. Use him when it matters no matter what the inning was. I watched the Yankees take the bullpen to perhaps a higher level still last year. Adding Robertson and Kahnle to Chapman, Betences, Green and Warren. I believe the prices will continue to go up and I believe that results will be inconsistent or volatile because players are inconsistent and volatile when you are using 50 to 70 IP's or 100 to 200 AB's data sets. However... I am not advocating ignoring the rotation or any other position from Shortstop to the I.T. department because it can be done with a bullpen alone. BTW... I'm Ok with the Rodney Signing.... I'm just really really pro bullpen.

You keep asking us bullpen supporters to show a correlation between bullpens and winning. That's going to stop us all dead in our tracks unless someone pours through the necessary research or finds someone who knows what they are doing and pours through the necessary research and publishes it for us to regurgitate. I think it's fair to return the request back at you. Please show some correlation that a bullpen doesn't produce winners. The best bullpen argument I can make is this: Jake McGee RP 31 Rockies 3 years $27,000,000 Bryan Shaw RP 30 Rockies 3 years $27,000,000 Brandon Morrow RP 33 Dodgers 2 years $21,000,000 Tommy Hunter RP 31 Phillies 2 years $18,000,000 Pat Neshek RP 37 Signed Phillies 2 years $16,250,000 Joe Smith RP 33 Signed Astros 2 years $15,000,000 Anthony Swarzak RP 32 Mets 2 years $14,000,000 Steve Cishek RP 31 Signed Cubs 2 years $13,000,000 Luke Gregerson RP 33 Signed Cardinals 2 years $11,000,000 Brandon Kintzler RP 33 Agreed Nationals 2 years $10,000,000 Yusmeiro Petit RP 33 Signed Athletics 2 years $10,000,000 Hector Rondon RP 29 Signed Astros 2 years $8,500,000 The Rockies, Dodgers, Phillies, Astro's, Mets, Cubs, Cards, Nats and A's are disagreeing with you by the contracts they are offering. Those front offices might be going through that research that you want H2O to provide you. Then again... they might not. I totally respect your position when you state that you would spend money/resources making starting pitching a priority. I don't disagree with that. However... The KC Rotation in 2014 or 2015 wasn't lights out. The Indians rotation was decimated in 2016. The Bullpens got them there. I just don't think you can elect to spend less in the bullpen on purpose anymore. I also agree that the 9th inning is way overrated... I don't care if Rodney is in the 9th... I want additional guys who can get a big strike out in the 7th... Protect a lead in the 6th. Stop a bad 1st inning with a great 2nd and 3rd inning. I want a bullpen full of these guys. I admit I can't predict who those guys will be but I do expect the front office to try in this day and age. At least... I expect the front office to try... until someone can prove that Kansas City and Cleveland bullpens didn't overcome a weak rotation and help them immensely.

David Price Jason Heyward Chris Davis Justin Upton Jordan Zimmerman Jeff Samardzia Wei-Yin Chen Mike Leake Alex Gordon Ian Kennedy Ben Zobrist Scott Kazmir John Lackey Denard Span Yiesel Sierra Just listing another 15 from 2015 to provide food for thought. Maybe Multi Year Contracts are just plain risky all around. However... Multi Year Contracts are the cost of doing business.

You can't win unless you try.

I imagine that the free agent signing dance has a certain timeline to it that will go at it's own pace. I'm not going to worry because I'm sure Falvey and Lavine have the phone number of his agent. However... At this point... I'd prefer if Falvey and Lavine find out exactly where Yu Lives and then buy the homes on either side of him. Falvey moves into one and Lavine moves into the other. Exchange recipes... host block parties and give sage advice over the fence. http://www.rvgfanatic.com/mediac/400_0/media/DIR_1188315/WilWilJr.JPG

Not only is my head wrapped around it. I'm scratching other teams off the potential list and it's dwindling down. Dodgers and Yankees are going to try and stay under the cap. Red Sox are focused on hitting... JD and Hosmer should be priorities over Darvish and they probably don't want to go over the cap either. Cubs are possible but I think they will offer a bargain price instead of max price. They were willing to let Arrieta and Davis walk and potential payroll was probably why. Giants want hitting. D-Backs want J.D. Lots of the usual suspects may be sitting this one out.

One year deals are always preferred. However... it does appear that one year deals won't get the deal done anymore for decent bullpen.

I agree that Cubs didn't have the best bullpen in 2016. However... I shudder to think what would have happened if they didn't give up Glayber Torres to improve it. I also contend that the Indians had a fantastic bullpen and they almost won it all because of Miller, Allen, Shaw. Otero and McCallister. Kluber was great. The other two guys they had starting were Tomlin and Bauer. When building a roster... you want to turn on all the spigots. FA, IFA, Trade, Draft and Develop, Rule 5. You don't want to ignore or turn off any of the spigots. Same thing when it comes to: The ways you win a ball game. You want to crush them with your bats. You want your starters to hang zero's and you want to suck the life out of them by giving them very little hope of coming back against a killer bullpen. When they get down because you built a lead after crushing them with your bats and your starter hung some zeros. It is sure nice to have a bullpen full of arms to choose from. It is also nice to have them when you don't crush them with your bats and your starter doesn't hang some zero's. P.S. The Dodgers and Astros bullpen may have under performed a little in the W.S. but there was clear effort taken by the GM's to stack them up and the Astros were one of the teams that just spent 7 Million Plus AAV for two years to get Joe Smith. Also the Giants bullpen in 2014 was nothing to sneeze at. It was loaded. There is simply no excuse for any contending team to Craig Breslow the bullpen together any more. Bullpens may be fungible but they need to be fungible at a higher level.

Sometimes the art of finding someone off the scrap heap is simply giving them an opportunity.

Nobody is Kershaw :) IMO... When you look at the stats. Darvish looks a lot like Greinke. The only thing Darvish doesn't have is that big 2015 year that Greinke had. I like Darvish better personally.

I believe that the Twins won't have a choice. They will have to sign multi year deals to land the bullpen arms they need because the market will demand it. They will have to get better at predictability because the starters will be going shorter and shorter as the years go by. Unless it's a 40 year player who maybe has a year left and probably lowered his leverage by only considering teams that have a closer opening and will actually name him the closer.

I'm all about depth. I'm alright with Rodney... I hope he works out great. However... I want additions added to this team in case he doesn't work out great.

Verducci just went into my Dinosaur column on this special spreadsheet I keep by me. I agree that shopping for bullpen arms is pretty volatile. The baseball highways are littered with poor numbers and big contract combo's... although... it should be pointed out that in the small sample size world of relief pitching, one horrible performance can be hard to overcome and some metrics can end up looking worse than they actually are. Regardless... you just gotta do it and do your best to do it right. Monster bullpens are being built and they are producing victories. You handicap yourself getting a closer, a couple of setup guys and finishing off the staff with a bunch "I'm just trying to stay in the profession guys" who get to throw when the starter chokes. The closer goes down and everybody moves up a chair and pretty soon you are counting on one of those "I'm just trying to stay in the profession guys in a high leverage situation. The Yankees had a great bullpen and still went out and got Robertson and Kahnle. We knocked Severino out in the 1st inning and that bullpen beat us. The Indians bullpen was 7 quality deep. The Dodgers had arms lined up. The Red Sox. The Astros D-Backs Rockies The Nats didn't start with a great pen but they finished with a pretty nice one. Of all the playoff teams... Only the Twins and maybe the Cubs had what "I myself" considered to be sub-par bullpens. All 30 teams should be looking for or trying to create their own Andrew Miller. I'm trying to think of a team that had a lights out bullpen and didn't make the playoffs. I can't off the top of my head. All of this is driving the price up in my opinion. The evidence seems to be pretty clear... The Year is soon 2018... baseball is different than it was two decades ago and bullpens are producing playoff teams.

Bullpens are becoming the new currency. The Twins need to get bullpen serious. This is off season #3 of me saying this. The prices are reflecting it.' Wish I would have bought reliever stock.