Riverbrian

I think it's possible that your memory of the teams in the 2000's has adjusted over time. We all died a little with every loss back then just like we are this year. We had holes on those teams that we wished would plug. It's the same thing as this year. This is how it goes in a pennant race and I'm willing to bet that the Cleveland fans feel the same. Yankees Fans Astros Fans A's Fans Rays Fans Braves Fans Nats Fans Mets Fans Philies Fans Cards Fans Cubs Fans Brewers Fans Dodgers Fans (OK Maybe not this group)

I agree with you about Buxton. He is special player and we are a better team with him in the lineup. Although, the Winning percentage probably isn't as simple as "Buck In - Buck Out" because of the 24 other factors to consider with special emphasis on the decline of the pitching staff during that time. Could Buxton's defense be a factor as you point out... sometimes yes... but overall, this team has players in reserve who can perform. Besides... I think if you look around the league... Nearly every team is missing a key piece and finding ways around it... just like we are with Buck. Pitching is where my worried head spends its time.

A couple comments in this thread about "not having fun" or "enjoying this". I have no idea why anyone would feel this way. I'm having a blast. I remember last year. This is enjoyable. Bring on September.

Why is it a fact that (1) Anderson wasn't as good then? (2) How do you increase a sample size? Where did the reasonable projection come from? What is the frequency of accuracy when it comes to actual performance compared to reasonable projections? The guy was striking out two batters an inning in Rochester and he went on to strike out two batters an inning in Miami and Tampa. Would he have to strike out 3 batters an inning in AAA to earn a reasonable projection of two batters an inning in the majors?

Yep I said it. And I never said "Young Players" If you want me to support it, I will and it will be a really really really long post that will happen in a new thread specific to the actual topic... Not Here in the "Anderson" thread. I am prepared for the conversation. I stand by my comment... the Twins rebuild has taken longer than it should because the Twins never actually rebuilt.

Baldelli has stated on multiple occasions that they are not going to use a specific closer.

No disrespect taken. Truth of the matter... I am appreciative of the honest conversation. It's a subject that I'm dying to discuss on Twinsdaily because I think it's important. I've felt this way for quite some time. Thank you for that. WIth all due respect, I gotta point out that you have contradicted yourself in your post. You are saying that the Astros knew exactly what they had in Kuechel and that the Indians knew exactly what they had in Kluber, Civale and Plesac. Then later on you state that Nick Anderson's will happen because these things are impossible to predict and you use Liam Hendriks as an example and I believe that you use Liam Hendriks correctly because the A's did let him go, he did go unclaimed and he found himself back with the A's... and look what he has done with the opportunity. It is the 2nd part that I am in complete agreement with you. On the subject of Dallas Kuechel. I was listening to MLB Radio and they were interviewing Mike Elias (GM of the Orioles). They were talking about the rebuilding process that the Orioles are currently going through. My ears perked up because he was touching on the very points that I make over and over again. Prior to becoming the Orioles GM, he was with the Astros organization for 7 years. I didn't transcribe the entire conversation but paraphrasing what he said when he was asked about the rebuilding process: It isn't just about the prospects that you acquire in a trade, it's also about discovery. We have guys on this roster right now who are getting the chance to show they belong in the major leagues. When I was with the Astros... Dallas Kuechel is a good example. Dallas wasn't a highly regarded prospect. His minor league numbers didn't jump off the page but he came along at the right time. He was given an opportunity because of where the Astros were as franchise and he exceeded all of our expectations. John Means could be a Dallas Kuechel for us. People nowadays think that Jose Altuve was born a superstar. Jose Altuve was an unheralded prospect that was given the chance to take the job and he took it. Sure we had the Springers and Correa's with the pedigree but you can't minimize the role that players like Altuve and Keuchel played. We were able to give them a chance with the Astros that they may not have gotten elsewhere because of the process. I have no idea what is happening inside the Cleveland Front office but I am willing to bet that they are looking at Zach Plesac right now and thinking to themselves. "I didn't know he could do this". My main point... Is Yes... Nick Anderson's will happen. The 40 man roster limitations will guarentee that you will spit out players that go on to greatness elsewhere. I don''t blame the front office for losing Nick Anderson. It's a hard job and the margins are thin. I'm saying there is only one way to lessen the amount of times this will happen to you. Play them, let the players help you make these tough decisions. and don't settle for mediocre results. Belisle, Drake, Plouffe. Keep trying to find better. You want to know why the Twins rebuild has taken so long... They never rebuilt. That's why. They said we got Plouffe. Nobody else gets a look. They settle for his mediocrity. That's how the Astros beat us. That's how the Dodgers beat us.

I think I misunderstood Caro umm... Squirrel's question when I typed my long manifesto. I think she was asking who is "next years Nick Anderson" that we need to find out about it. To that question... I don't know. I didn't know Nick Anderson would end up being this years Nick Anderson. The front office will have a little more cover with another mistake like that because they are in contention this year. That changes the dynamic considerably than what we were doing last year but... I promise you... If they trade Kohl Stewart (For Example) (not making a statement about Kohl Stewart) to the Royals and Kohl sticks in that rotation and out performs whoever we grab to fill one of our available spots. I will be there to ask why we spent so much time with Morin. Or Why we spent so much time with Perez, or Parker or Magill when we could have gotten information on Kohl Stewart (For Example). I don't know who specifically to answer Carole's question but I do know that mediocre talent to worse than mediocre talent is nothing to lock on to unless it has a chance to increase in value. I think we can agree that Morin was mediocre and had little chance increasing in value, especially if the manager was clearly not using him in situations where is value could increase. I wish the front office the best of luck in the upcoming rule 5 draft.

I'll say it again... You can't discount the possibility that Kluber and Carrasco coming back weakens the rotation if they bump one of those guys in the process. However, I'm also comfortable in knowing that success isn't automatically sustained from year to year. I believe it is quite possible that Plesac (for example) chucks a 6.00 ERA in 2020 and leaves Cleveland holding the bag. For 2019... Yeah... we can do this. Our offense is real and managers will get innings here and there from anyone to piece it together. It's baseball, It's possible that Adrianza hits the game winning grand slam in the 10th inning off of Kluber in Game 7 of the ALCS after he pinch ran for Cruz in the 8th. It's why I love baseball.

I'm glad you asked. First of all... you don't want to talk about the past... fair enough, I'll get to the future but you must realize that the dynamic has changed because the Twins are now in contention. They were not last year. There are full scale rebuilds and there are slighter version of rebuilds but make no mistake. If you are not in contention, you are in some form of a rebuild. The goal of any selling team, is to clear space (A lot or A little) for players who can increase in value. Belisle, Drake, Forsythe were just plugs in a spigot when the spigot needed to be turned on. Belisle was not going to increase in value, he was not going to be on the roster next season so they were just preventing a look at someone who might be on the roster next season or could increase in value and if you don't get to look at someone, then you have you just resign yourself to having a hole in the roster spot that these guys inevitably unplug. It delays your rebuild (big or small) and increases the size of the job you must do in the off-season. The Astros tripped over Dallas Kuechel by giving him the chance to be Dallas Kuechel by not having medicore or worse talent in his way. Nobody knew who Dallas Kuechel was in the minors. The Astros didn't plug his spot with a Craig Breslow type. The Orioles have found John Means, Reanato Nunez, Anthony Santander, Pedro Severino, Hanser Alberto through opportunity. They have increased the value of Villar. This is how you speed up your rebuild, by increasing value of the players who can actually increase in value through opportunity. OK... Your question... On to the future... What does a contending team do now. To begin... I'm not going to give up specific names. I'm not the sort of person who reads Keith Law and says "Yeah this guy because Law says so" or "Not this guy because his minor league stats "don't read like I want them to read". It is the job of the front office to determine who gets a shot, they have the scouts and the data that I don't have access to. It is their job to determine the next man up and their better be a next man up because they didn't bring in a next man at the trade deadline. I'm going to talk simple fundamentals... that's all. Here is how you do it. 1. Realize that every roster spot is critical. Treat each Roster Spot like it is pure gold. Never lock into or simply settle for mediocre or worse at any roster position. Never assume that average can't be improved upon. Have the Twins settled for Martin Perez or Kyle Gibson and said they can't do better? What purpose is Lewis Thorpe serving on the roster right now? If he is only on the roster to pitch when the team is losing 10-0 then he doesn't have the faith of the manager. If Lewis Thorpe won't be allowed to better than Martin Perez, Kyle Gibson or Ryne Harper, send him down now and call up the next man up. If the manager doesn't have faith in that guy... send him down and call the next man up, if the manager doesn't have faith in that guy. You screwed up at the trade deadline by not providing your manager with players that he has faith in and you have settled for mediocre. This is critical because: 2A. Important talent with timely performance to match often comes out of nowhere. I mentioned Dallas Kuechel above, I've gone on about Max Muncy, Voit, Tauchman, Hand, Yates in the past and will again in the future. Closer to home (there are not a lot of examples because the Twins have consistently locked into mediocre for at least a decade), We watched Tyler Duffey carry us as a 24 year old rookie in 2015. I understand that 2016 was the complete opposite but in 2015, he came out of nowhere and threw 58 important innings with a 3.10 ERA during a pennant race. If you say, Martin Perez is the best we can do... A Tyler Duffey performance can't surface out of nowhere because Perez is in the way and the team stopped right there. Tyler Duffey isn't the only example. Look at the Indians right now. Everybody loves that starting rotation. Who exactly are Shane Beiber, Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale. Keith Law wasn't talking about any of these guys. Zach Plesac doesn't even show up in the top 30 prospect list. Civale was their 24th ranked prospect this year. The Twins equivalent by organizational rank is Jorge Alcala at 23 BTW. Lewis Thorpe is our #11 prospect and he can't get the ball unless we are down by 10 runs. The Indians might actually decline in performance if Kluber returns. Yeah I know that sounds crazy but the possibility can't be discounted because Beiber, Plesac and Civale have been that good and it isn't unprecedented that a superstar struggles. 2B. Realize that you have the playoffs to prepare for and you don't know who is going to available to you come playoff time and you don't know who is going to be flourishing or struggling when needed in a do or die situation. This makes every roster spot critical. You must increase your options. What are you going to do if Jose Berrios is hurt come playoff time? What are you going to do if Kyle Gibson has a 8.88 ERA in September. You need options. Who is our Zach Plesac, who is our 2015 Tyler Duffey? I know it is absolutely natural to assume that it has been good fortune for our pitching staff to remain primarily healthy through the season. I say it has been "Unfortunate", because: A. It has prevented us from finding better because Mediocre won't get out of the way. B. Health for an entire season is rare so our odds are increased that arms will be either be tired come playoff time or that arms will go on the IL toward the end of the season and into the playoffs. Lastly, everybody just assumes that Mookie Betts brought the Red Sox a title. It was Steve Pearce and Nathan Eovlaldi... WHO CAME OUT OF NOWHERE. The Red Sox had increased options available at a critical time and they came through. 3. Remove the boxes. Starting Pitcher, Long Relief, Closer, Set Up Guy. Locked in roles like that just restrict your options and just get in the way of finding talent. We need arms. We need guys who can hang zeroes. The primary need might be the bullpen but just because a guy has been a starter in the minors doesn't mean he can't join our bullpen. Is Stashek the best option because he is a bullpen guy or is Graterol simply the better pitcher and option? Don't let assigned roles restrict your possibilities. Besides come playoff time. The Manager better throw the damn rules out the window, such as use Berrios in the 9th after pitching 7IP two days before. You need your best arms and you need them to pitch whenever you call upon them. I realize that Graterol is being prepped for the bullpen... That's great. That's what should happen if the front office thinks he is the next man up. The A's are doing it right now with Puk. The Dodgers have always been ahead of everyone else by stashing excess starting pitching in the bullpen. May is currently in the Pen, Urias would be pitching out of the bullpen if he wasn't suspended, Maeda has gone back and forth to hang zeroes where needed. The next man up is the next man up. Pitching is pitching. Length is always helpful... the Dodgers don't have to throw Urias for one inning in the playoffs... he can throw 5 innings if he has to. So... How would I do it? Start with the roster spot occupied by Thorpe. Is he the next guy up? If he is... you throw him now and find out. If he isn't... Send him down and try the next guy. If the manager won't give him some meaningful innings to find out if he can be better than mediocre, he is in the way and he's just wasting a valuable roster spot when the clock is ticking. Call up Graterol or Smeltzer or Alcala or Dobnak or Diplan in his place. I'm throwing out names... I don't know who the next man up is but the front office better. Whoever it is. The clock is ticking and it showtime right now because if the next man up can't carry the load, you got to move on to the next option to see if he can carry the load while the clock is ticking. Next step... Who needs a break in the rotation. Does Berrios? His fastball is down, he has had a bad string of starts recently. Does he need a little DL dead arm recovery time. Give it to him if he does and give the ball to someone else and let's see if that pitcher can out perform the mediocrity of Perez or Gibson. By the end of September... we might have clear data that the next man up is bette than Gibson and Perez. If you have to make a hard choice on Gibson or Perez... you make it and you are comfortable making it because you have the performance to support your decision. I understand that there is a significant total of baseball fans who gulp at the thought of handing the ball to someone unheralded or untested during a playoff chase. I'm telling all of you... we have no choice. We didn't get Stroman or the equivalent at the trade deadline. Once that didn't happen... the front office declared that we have the talent in house. If we do... we need the data to prove it now. I'm also asking everyone to look at the Indians starting rotation right now, I'm asking everyone to look at bullpens across the league to get a gauge on how many unheralded and untested guys are performing. Don't settle for Mediocre or worse and say you can't do better. I'm not naming names... that's the job of the front office.

I agree with everything you are saying. That's why it is absolutely critical that they take a look at Anderson and others and more than just 6 innings. It wasn't clear what should be done with Anderson before the rule 5 draft because they opted to not even try and clarify the decision. You are right, bullpens are extremely volatile... that's why it is critical to not freeze (Morin, Belisle) on so-so performance and hold there. That's why it is critical to get a look at others, you need to constantly search for better. That's how you get bullpen serious.

Does this only apply to "rubber matches?" I'm only asking because on July 25th. We lit Giolito up for 7 runs in his 5 innings, for what turned out to be a 10-3 Twins Win. I fully admit it was a 3 game series opener though.

With Pressly, I remember being surprised by it. I was in sell mode and Chief and others disagreed with being in sell mode but that's where I was. But... I was expecting only the expiring assets to be dealt. I was not expecting Pressly who was under control the next season to be dealt. So I was surprised. Pressly has stuff... I wasn't too worried about his struggles. He could punch people out and I like people who can punch people out in the bullpen. I had always figured that Pressly would be a big part of the 2019 bullpen. So when he was dealt... I was surprised. However... I didn't worry about it much... I told myself that they (the front office) must have really liked the players they were getting back in return and I figured that they had a plan for building the bullpen back up in the off-season. Now... Well... I'm still telling myself that they (the front office) must have really liked the players they were getting back but... I was underwhelmed with their attempt to build the bullpen back up. But... I told myself... Well... it is there job to staff it... Let them sign who they want and let them execute their plan. Now... Well... We released 4 guys in July. So... I'm standing here and waiting for them to get bullpen serious and I don't believe that they have yet. Until the Astros trade chips get here to help us out. It's hard not to imagine what could have been. Rogers, Pressly, Anderson in the bullpen. We still could have picked up Dyson and Romo, plus Duffey, May competing with Littell or even Harper for spots. I'm hoping these days are gone. I hope they have learned from this. Until the players we got back come up and contribute... We lost the trade because we are in contention right now. Anderson... We lost that deal immediately and it will never change.

Well Said

I can only speak for myself. You are not going to hear me decrying the trade of Anderson (or any minor league player) when it actually happened because I didn't know who Anderson was and I don't know who any of them are until they reach the majors. I'm going to stay consistent this way so I can avoid being hypocritical when I look at things in hindsight. I am resigned to letting the front office make the moves they see fit. Bottom Line: The Scouts, The Data... whatever the process... They missed on a guy who is striking out 2 batters an inning and they put Matt Belisle and Olver Drake on the roster instead. During a season that should have been used to get ready for next season. Giving work to Anderson instead of Belisle or Drake could have provided some information, MLB data, visual information for the scouts that would have stopped the 2nd mistake they made later. The 2nd mistake was choosing DeJong (for example) over Anderson for the 40 man before the rule 5. All of this could have been avoided by just handing him the ball during a season that should have been used to get ready for next season. They had two chances to stop this from happening and someone got in the way and determined that he wouldn't even be given the opportunity. He got the opportunity elsewhere and it is now clear that he should have gotten opportunity here. They had him ... they didn't know what they had and he didn't get a chance to show them. This is a lack of foresight that has been revealed in hindsight and it is totally fair for anyone to wonder why out loud. Nick Anderson would have been a tremendous help to our bullpen this year.

With all due respect Van. I don't think I will. You are not understanding me and you are working way too hard to take me away from my point. You brought up Burdi, Chargois and Curtiss... I did not but yeah I'd rather the club look at Anderson with some helium than Belisle with nowhere to go but down in a lost season. Go Back and read my original first 4 sentences. That's my point. If anyone wonders why I'm insistent about giving playing time to as many players as possible. Nick Anderson is one of many exhibits. If anyone wonders why I don't have complete faith in the scouts, the front offices or Keith Law to be right all the time. Nick Anderson is one of many exhibits. When I talk about one of many exhibits... I'm talking about Anderson (the subject of this thread). I'm talking about Kirby Yates, Brad Hand, Justin Turner, Luke Voit, Mitch Tauchman, Max Muncy off the top of my head. I'm talking about the scouts and data being wrong frequently because all clubs miss on guys like this because of the 40 man pressure. I'm not relying on the scouts, the front office or Keith Law to pre-determine fate. I'd like them to determine their own fate with the ball in hand. I'm talking about not wasting roster space on average to below average, Belisle and Breslow types who have no chance of increasing in value and running up players like Nick Anderson instead who have a chance of increasing in value. The bullpen isn't strong enough to give players away like Anderson.

The preciousness of the 40 man roster space that you mention is exactly my point and reasoning. I am braced for the 40 man decisions to come this winter and it’s a good problem to have. I’m not so sure we had this good problem to have in previous years. I don’t want to focus on Chargois specifically when I’m really talking broad concept fundamentals. We can get lost in Chargois because he was hurt and his release can be justified.

I will take the progress that has been made and be thankful for the progress that has been made by this front office and I really don't like being on the critical side of them because I am truly thankful. No matter what I type below, I want it understood, I am over the moon happy with our front office and manager. To address your questions or points. 1. The majority of discards are obvious. They won't produce a sting because they were obvious. 2. In the case of discards that could sting... they typically won't sting because they won't get the opportunity from other organizations to sting. They might get 10 "prove it now" innings or 10 "prove it now" AB's 3. Nick Anderson is a pretty stunning miss "by himself" when you consider that we just released 4 relief pitchers in July and gave Matt Belisle a 25 man roster spot last summer during a "we are a seller" season. 4. Nick Anderson was traded, we kept DeJong, Vazquez, Moya. This is a bad miss in an area of acute need. 5. Yes I wish we still had Chargois. He has had options since leaving Minnesota. He still has a 40 man spot with the Dodgers. 6. Yes I wish we still had Burdi... (well not so much now with his shoulder issue) but yeah, he should be on our 60 day DL. He has 10 IP with Pittsburgh... He got rocked for 5 runs without getting a batter out before landing on the DL and that is going to inflate things with only 10 IP. However, 19 K's over those 10 IP's is pretty impressive. We can't be tossing guys like this away. 7. Curtiss? He's looking like a "no sting" drop but regardless of how he looks now. He should have gotten a longer look than the 6.1 innings he pitched last year in consideration how bad last season was. 8. I think the front office has been great... I'd like them to now handle their pitching staff like they are doing with the offense. Give them playing time and let the cream rise to the top. 25 guys who can play. 9. I think the front office has been great but we wasted a lot of precious time with Morin, Parker and Magill. I wouldn't call them bullpen serious yet... at least as long as they are willing to give Morin a long look and toss aside Anderson, Burdi or Chargois. 10. The Pressly trade was bad but at least we got something in return. In two years the trade could look different but yes it looks bad right now. However with Anderson... we got nothing in return. (Sorry Brian Scales). All we had to do was hand him the ball... SOMEONE GOT IN THE WAY OF THAT HAPPENING and we handed the ball to Belisle instead and then we handed it to DeJong and others instead. We released 4 bullpen arms in July. The bullpen looks a lot different with Anderson and Pressly in it. 11. I sincerely, think the front office is doing a great job.Just being constructive for the future.

If anyone wonders why I'm insistent about giving playing time to as many players as possible. Nick Anderson is one of many exhibits. If anyone wonders why I don't have complete faith in the scouts, the front offices or Keith Law to be right all the time. Nick Anderson is one of many exhibits. Our scouts and our front office (Who I believe are talented) gave away a guy who is striking out over 2 batters an inning this year. Nick would have been a huge boost to this bullpen this year and we let him go. I don't blame anyone, mistakes like this happen all the time and they happen because the margins are thin and the job is hard. But... they let him go for nothing... It should tell everyone that complete trust in the process is misplaced. The only way to minimize these types of mistakes is too hand them the ball and let them show you. Putting Belisle on the roster instead of Anderson during a lost season was a critical mistake, it was someone making the determination that Belisle was better than Anderson and being wrong by 100 miles. The guy is striking out 2 batters an inning. I don't care if his ERA is 10.88 in 2020... He is striking out 2 batters an inning in 2019. He would be a huge addition to this bullpen right now. I've moved on... I think the front office has done a great job and I'll bet they will make mistakes like this again in the future. Right now... I'll just settle for them realizing that they made a mistake here and will make mistakes like this in the future and this will hopefully stall any futures thoughts of "we know better". If they do that... they will make less mistakes like this in the future. You need scouts, you need the data but you need to recognize the imperfections of scouts and data and let the players prove everyone wrong if they are able. Letting Anderson walk was a bigger mistake than trading Pressly.

I'm too lazy to do the research and I'm not sure where to start. But I am wondering out loud: How many times has a team never lost to a divisional opponent during the course of season? It has probably happened but my guess on how often is going to be extremely rare. You'll just cause yourself unnecessary craziness assuming that good teams are always going to be beat bad teams and wondering why it didn't happen on a given night.

I blame Roy

I can buy what you are selling

I do believe it would have been a long review. The jeopardy theme would have played to conclusion 3 or 4 times

Thanks for the photo. In my opinion. Sano would have been safe if not blocked. That I’m convinced of. If he can’t apply a tag in time. He certainly can’t move his foot in time to block the plate. The only way he is able to block the plate is if it was pre-blocked prior to the ball arriving and that is against the rules. The only question should be. Did he need to block the plate in order to catch the ball? I believe the answer to that is no. He had an unnecessary wide stance, which blocked the plate. It was a great play by the Sox but the Posey rule is in the books and this appears to be the definition of what you can’t do. In the end. Brand new game today.

I've watched it over and over again. I fixate with the best of them. He is safe if the plate is not blocked. The plate was blocked by a foot/leg that is extended away from the catcher's body before the ball arrives. Before the Posey Rule Change... I would have said great play. After the Posey Rule Change... it is a violation. The call should have been challenged. It was a run and a favorable situation for a 2nd run. The call was huge. As it stands... the play was huge... hats off to the White Sox because they made it. It should have been challenged.