Riverbrian

It took 4 years to convict? It took 5.5 years for a financial settlement? I'm going to be thinking about that.

I... like many others had a hard time seeing sensible plan going forward and my opinion hasn't changed much from my opinion in the off-season. However... I get that we have names in the lineup card that many don't feel comfortable with But objectively... If the front office believed this team could contend and moved forward with that belief and planned with that belief. From a won loss standpoint. It's not White Towel time. The problem is that some of us... maybe even me included were waiving the white towel in the off-season and we haven't stopped waiving it.

This honest assessment that you want them to make isn't ours. That's the problem. This off-season. Some folks on Twinsdaily would have torn it down to the studs. They would have traded Ryan, Jeffers, Lopez, Buxton, Larnach, Wallner and Ober for prospects and then they were expecting to draft #1 for a couple of years and come out of the darkness with a team that wins the world series in 2030. I wouldn't have gone that far. I would continued what was started at the deadline but I wouldn't have tossed everyone overboard. I would have cashed in the chips at peak value. Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers and made a commitment to youth with the return and what was in house. I would have tried to shore up SS and 1B with the best young players I could get for Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers and I didn't believe the rebuild would have taken that long. The problem... is the front office didn't see it the way I did or the way the others did. They had a different assessment and if that assessment only last's 64 games when they are still 3 games out of a wild card spot. That's a bigger problem than getting it wrong in the first place. Baseball seasons are too rollercoastery to begin with.

That is also fair... Although, I'll still throw tomatoes at any front office that wasn't prepared for the possibility of what happened with Wallner, Lewis and Bell or any group of players in any given season because it happens in every given season. If they changed course this quickly because something that was bound to happen happened... that's not just a tomato thrown... that's La Tomatina that would need to occur at 1 Twins Way.

I'm not trading Byron Buxton. I'm getting him measured for his eventual statue in the plaza. I'll trade everyone else not nailed down but Buxton stays.

As you know... I wouldn't have gone the direction they went in the off-season. I've said it multiple times. I know you wouldn't have either because you have said it multiple times. However... I would be more disappointed in the front office if they just abruptly changed course. They cant' go for it and change their mind with 98 games to play just 3 games out of a wild card spot. That would probably be the scariest, most unstable, untrustworthy thing that a front office could possibly do. I can live with bad decisions but I can't live that incredible degree of wishy washy courage of your convictions.

Balance is a good thing. No fight necessary. I wasn't advocating the return nor lamenting the loss of Gasper. Just pointing out that he's getting opportunity and taking advantage... as is Moran.

You can thumbs down my response. I can't stop you from doing that but I'm not sure what specifically you are thumbs downing. I get that you would DFA Bell and give Lewis the 26 man spot. That move in itself is fine with me because Bell won't be back next year and I wasn't a fan of spending 7 million on him in the first place. However, I'd recommend that you sit down for dinner with Pohlad and Zoll at Murray's and convince them to eat what's left of his contract. They won't do it and they will probably make you pay for the dinner. At least the steak will be pretty good as you leave the restaurant dejected and $500 bucks lighter if they don't bring their wives with. 😄 Our infield depth is non-existent.

I get it. I wasn't a big fan of spending our limited resources on Bell. But... the Twins went and spent 7 million on Josh and he has some major league track record that he was supposed to provide therefore justifying the 7 million dollar expense as the team continues to try and go for it. And technically... Isn't out of contention despite our lack of confidence. That's one thing but the bigger problem... is the current infield depth. If you make that move... Lewis goes from the only option to nobody being a sensible option on the infield when an injury occurs and an injury is going to occur. When that happens... and it will. I doubt the Twins call up Ben Ross. They will go searching that waiver wire and bring in a Jonah Bride or Dylan Moore type guy. If the Twins were to release Bell and eat the remaining dollars of that 7 million. It better be the start of youth flowing into the clubhouse at 1 Twins Way shortly afterwards. Ryan needs to be traded for prospects, Jeffers traded for prospects. Larnach and Ober will probably need to be moved for prospects.

Off topic so I apologize. However... the mention of Gasper is an opportunity to point out that Mickey is currently the primary catching option in Boston despite the presence of two other catchers on the 26 man roster. In the past 9 games... Gasper has caught 5 of them. Narvaez 3 and Wong 1. Gasper appears to be the guy behind the plate against right handed pitching. How long will that last... I have no idea but after 19 Games... 65 Plate Appearances. Mickey has an OBP of .375 and .414 slug. His OPS is currently 2nd on the Red Sox. Small Sample obviously but the sample is growing and there he is behind Contreras and ahead of Abreu and Duran and Roman Anthony and Story and... and... and... and. Not saying I wish Gasper was here but I am saying... he's getting opportunity and so far... doing something with it. And... one more thing. Jovani Moran. The Bullpen guy we traded for Gasper. He has 30 innings tossed so far out of the Red Sox bullpen. His WHIP 0.87 with 32 Punch outs. The Red Sox have officially won the Gasper trade.

I'm content to wait for a necessity (injury) to bring him back. We don't have decent minor league depth on the dirt. Royce is probably it. I don't expect the Twins front office to just cut or send down Kriedler, Gray or Arcia to make room for Lewis because we don't have major league ready AAA depth at 2B, 3B, SS or 1B. I don't expect a hot streak from Lewis to cause a 26 man change to make room for him. I think this is an opportunity to get Lewis some work on the right side of the infield so he can slide into whatever hole opens up when an injury occurs and injury is going to occur at some point. Because we don't have anybody else when that injury occurs. Schobel? Ross? Sabato maybe if he keeps hitting the ball... Otherwise... just look at the options. It's Lewis... he's the next man up. We can allow Lewis to work on things until we need the next man and that time is coming fast. Bank on it. Yeah... Culpepper. I know... Culpepper. He doesn't need to added to the 40 man roster until Dec 27. We have a potential lockout in 2027 that could burn his valuable service time while he is on the 40 man playing golf waiting for baseball and the players union to allow him to play. Lewis is the next man up. If Keaschall gets hurt, If Bell gets hurt, If Clemens gets hurt, If Kreidler gets hurt, If Lee gets hurt, If Gray gets hurt, If Arcia gets hurt. He's the next man up for the entire infield. Wherever that injury occurs that makes him necessary. Brooks Lee is playing 3B now. Lewis has to get defensively prepared for any possibility so he gets that phone call that's coming.

Spot on. This sentence is really important in my opinion, Simple probability is at the base of wherever I venture to come up with my oddball opinions. What is that simple probability. The average player gets on base 1 out of 3 times. Two Outs and One Base Runner is that simple probability that can't be ignored. From that simple base... you can gain prospective... you can see the depth or lack of depth on the margins. You see a majority of players just sitting in a big pile in the middle with shades separating them or a particular skill separating them. I believe there are a handful of elite players... I believe there are a bunch of significantly sub-par players that won't matter because they will be selling cars at Bob's Honda shortly. Two outs and one base runner is the probability methods that you can faithfully compare and contrast with all data. And that brings us back to sequencing. I agree. People always talk about regression to the mean. I think clutch is more likely to stabilize as samples increase or just plain ole stringing them together sequencing is more likely to stabilize over time. I believe this stabilization, this regression, this water finding it's level is more likely to occur in terms of clutch or sequencing more so than I believe BAPIP for example will stabilize, regress, find it's water level over time since I believe BAPIP is more a product of exit velo's or launch angles than luck. Wallner... Man... I don't know. It's my opinion that he is at his best when he is simply striking the baseball with the barrel of the bat. The ball rockets when he does. Watching him this year...his timing is just way off... not even close and you can't hit 100 plus exit velo's when you are out front of the pitch. His timing was just bad. I'd like him to simplify his swing... less moving parts and I want him to be satisfied hitting 410 foot home runs instead of trying to hit them 470 feet. It's possible he's trying to do that and it has him a little messed up but... Man... I don't know.

Last Game Right Handed Starter June 4 - Seth Lugo - Loss - Runs Scored 6 Lineup Composition - 4 RH - 2 Switch - 3 LH Season Record vs. RH Starter: 21-23 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starter: 4.57 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Staters Season Record vs LH Starter: 8-12 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starter: 4.70

I love when you do this type of research. When I said slightly impressive. I meant they should have been shut out by now. Historically... statistically... teams usually get shut out 4? 5? times a year. They shouldn't have lasted 40 games without a skunk. 63 is fairly impressive. It certainly wasn't a statement about the glory of this patched together offense. 😉 Runs Scored? Nothing makes much sense with the 2026 Twins. I know you are already on this stuff so I don't have to point it out. But... Wow... The Twins are 7th in runs scored. The Twins are also 19th in OPS, 18th in OBP, 16th in Slug, 20th in BA. 13th in SB while they have been caught stealing the 5th most. 16th in BB's, 14th in HR's, 12th in Total Bases. 24th in K's. Exactly how is this team 7th in Runs Scored. What statistic or combination of statistics is producing the 7th most runs scored in MLB. This team is excelling at nothing besides crossing the plate. You and I talked about sequencing in regards to Wallner awhile back. Perhaps this would be a time to talk about sequencing again from the opposite direction. I honestly don't know and can't explain it. Certainly doesn't feel sustainable.

Yeah... these posts are hard to discuss... unfinished data builds with no conclusion but I appreciate the discussion and the posts. Runs scored are just extra data that I'm tracking because I'm really after wins, losses and composition but it is still interesting. I think you raise a good point with Jeffers, Buxton and Martin being among our best and all right handed so therefore we score more against left handers. The genesis of the data on this thread is really a talent discussion. I don't entirely disagree with you but I think it's important to point out that 4.70 vs 4.53 is really close. It's essentially one more run every 6 games. That's 20 starts vs left handers and now 43 starts vs RH. The first 20 starts against Right Handers. The Twins sat at 4.98 vs Right Handed Pitchers. The 2nd 20 games against right handers the Twins were 4.15 vs Right Handers. That's about 15 less runs. The real killer stretch against right handed pitching was from May 6 to May 28. There were 16 games against Right Handed Pitching. The 22nd game against right handed pitching to the 37th game against right handed pitching. During that stretch the Team went from averaging 5.19 on game 21 (Highest 2026 Average) per game against the RH Starter to 4.41 on game 37 (Lowest 2026 Average). The average during those 16 games was 3.43 per game. And Oddly enough... The Twins were 8-8 against right handed starters during that 3.43 per game stretch. The average in 20 games can really be influenced by big numbers in single games or a streak of them. The Twins scored 22 runs vs three left handed starters from May 14 to May 22. Vs Garrett, (9) Gasser(5) and Tolle(8). They were at 4.44 before that really good week. What will the next 20 games bring... You and I will have to watch. I just believe in doing data entry myself because doing the data entry lets you watch the wheels turn. The gaps tighten. The differences narrow.

I love Jeffers. I think he will be the top free agent at the position next year. And the answer is absolutely not. It shouldn't even be a consideration. When they signed Caratini... this conversation ended. No Catcher is making 23 million a year. He absolutely might take it and simply become a free agent the following season where he can sign a similar deal with 23 million in cash in his pocket. If he did take the QO... He probably would. Between Jeffers and Caratini... that would be 30 Million spent on the catcher position . Current payroll is 107 Million. The Twins can't afford to allocate 25% of payroll on the catching position. No team can afford to allocate 25% to the catcher position. The Dodgers have Will Smith locked up until he is 57 Years old at about 15 Million per year with major league minimum 2nd catcher in Rushing. The Twins would be spending double what the free spending Dodgers are paying for the position. There will be nothing left for others. Not to mention... if Jeffers takes it and I think he would. The 2027 Twins would not only have two catchers making a combined 30 Million dollars in 2027. They will have zero catchers in 2028 with both catcher deals expiring at the end of the season. Leading to ? What? in 2028. We all hope that 2028 is when Tait arrives at age 21 and becomes that immediate long term solution at the position. That might be a little quick. The Twins have a budget. I don't know what that budget is but we all know they have a budget... and they have a budget no matter how many times Tom Pohlad says they will be aggressive if the opportunity arises. They will have a budget if they sell to Elon Musk.

Last night was the first time the Twins were shut-out. It took 63 games for the first shutout. I don't if that's impressive or not. It feels slightly impressive. I also think it's notable that Erick Fedde was able to lower his ERA from 5.40 to 4.96 with his 5 innings of zeros hung. The night before... we scored 6 runs on Davis Martin and raised his ERA from 2.00 to 2.64. Fedde beat Bradley and Prielipp beat Martin. There are no absolutes in the game of baseball.

Last Game Right Handed Starter June 3 - Erick Fedde - Loss - Zero Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 4 RH 3 Switch 2 LH Season Record vs RH Starter: 21-22 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starter: 4.53 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Staters Season Record vs LH Starter: 8-12 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starter: 4.70

Last Game Right Handed Starter June 2 - Davis Martin - Won - 6 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 4 RH - 2 Switch - 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 21-21 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.64 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Staters Season Record vs LH Starter: 8-12 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starter: 4.70

Perfect... Aaron Judge went 32nd overall so he's probably gone by the time our 2nd round pick comes around and if he does slide to 42. You and I are probably grabbing Luis Campusano in that spot.

We are aligned. But now you got 162 game Bopper in my head with the third pick. Is Aaron Judge available this draft? That's who I want now.

Big Picture. Yeah... it would be the same thing. It would also be an overpay. My desire to take the catching position more seriously come draft time and then the subsequent develop time got the best of me and I ran ahead of myself. You are correct. It would also be an overpay in the same vein.

Maybe... Hard to say. I agree that the Dodgers simply don't have to patient with prospects. However,... Offensively... Statistically... Wallner is a lot like Max Muncy. On the other hand... There is no way he stays up with the Dodgers this year. Maybe not 2025 either... But 2023 and 2024... The Dodgers would have been happy. My guess... is that they would have traded him for a Lance Lynn or something like that.

Catchers have over inflated value. If you don't develop them... you have to over pay to get them. I'd rather be on the good side of this position scarcity to take advantage of the market... rather than the market taking advantage of you. If we have a pile of catchers that are major league talent. That's good... you can trade some of the pile at higher rates. When it comes to the draft. I refrain from personal opinions. It doesn't matter the sport. I will read the articles out of curiosity or for pure fun but... I simply refuse to let what I read influence my opinion so I simply don't have an opinion on individual players... I won't yell at the front office for taking a guy that someone else writing an article wasn't as sure about. With that said. It'll be the third pick overall so we need to be successful. If there are such things as tiebreakers between prospects with the front office and I assume there are. I'd be perfectly comfortable with the team considering inflated catcher value as a tie breaker... if they are choosing between two. I know very little about Vahn Lackey. But... taking the best catcher in the draft sounds like a good idea to me. Jeffers is the only catcher we have produced in a long time and he is going away. It's time to quit failing at the catcher position.

Last Game Right Handed Starter June 1 - David Sandlin - Won - 9 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH 3 Switch 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 20-21 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.61 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Staters Season Record vs LH Starter: 8-12 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starter: 4.70