Riverbrian

Dear Byron, We appreciate you so much that we'd like you to stay in Minnesota an extra year. Sincerely, Twins Front Office

Ethics? It's something that is done by all 30 teams and God bless America. Seriously... I'm on the players side in the next CBA. However this is the current CBA. My opponents are going to use service time to their advantage. I'm not going to let them have an advantage to themselves so I can interpret a vague Bad Faith wording in an agreement in the players favor. I want the year... I'm getting it back this September or in April. If Buxton wants to file grievance. The response to the players union should just be "Seven" as in OPS+ of "Seven".

I apologize but I can't help myself. They might be able to say to someone that they are going to play less... but they don't seem to be able to actually play someone less.

From your Lips (Fingers) straight to Falvey/Lavine/Moltor Ears(Eyeballs). A perfect paragraph!!!

You are just trying to get me started.

This isn't delicate to me. I'd knock over every piece of fine china in the store and say... I WANT THE EXTRA YEAR.

You can sign Mauer with the intention of him being the "starting" 1B. What you can't do is let signing Mauer prevent you from bringing in a guy who could be better. You just need a guy who can play 1B and someplace else. Prepare for success and Prepare for failure at the same time.

I understand we’ve had this discussion before. Then we need a better option. Because if a manager can’t replace a 7 OPS+. We are done. If Buxton is the guy who needs playing time to develop and therefore tolerate a 7 OPS+. We are not contenders anymore and there is no reason to sign Logan Morrison. Kenny’s Vargas would have been just fine. I honestly don’t want to defend LaMarre because I’m really not that impressed with him but here is another point. Projections are for the front office. Actual performance as it happens is on the manager.

Roberts also has a team that had 4 starting pitchers on the DL at the same time and is only 2 games back of the AL West leading D-Backs. Their Record is 72-62... Now If you are saying that they should be 82-52 right now with the best record in the National League. I won't argue that.. .it's personal opinion and impossible to debate but... my opinion is that the National League is twice as competitive as the American League this year so 72-62 isn't a bad number. Only the Cubs are better with a little cushion everybody else is in striking distance. The National League is entertaining baseball this year. However... If Roberts and all the interesting playing time allocation moves that he makes is actually costing them games. I can't debate that... I only have my opinion with no numbers to back that up. I can only confirm that he manages his roster much different than the majority of managers and Paul Molitor is in that majority. On your point with LaMarre... You have it backwards. LaMarre was hot in Spring Training and April and that was when Molitor barely utilized him. It wasn't until May 29 that LaMarre starting getting playing time after Buxton went on the DL and LaMarre had cooled. No question and oddly enough... that was when he got his playing time. Because Molitor has rolled with the struggling time and time again this year. I want to be clear because when I post stuff like that last paragraph, it becomes red meat and my point gets lost down the rabbit hole. I was just correcting your assessment of LaMarre's usage. To be clear: I am not and never have been predicting a major league career for Ryan LaMarre. I don't know Ryan Lamarre other than he made the roster. I am not saying that LaMarre's hot streaks and cold streaks need to be timed perfectly by the manager. I am saying that LaMarre was given a spot on the 25 man roster (Yes Blame the front office for that if anyone is inclined) and every spot on that 25 man roster is valuable and needs to be occupied by players who can play full time in case of injury and really bad performance from a designated starter and we had really bad performance from multiple designated starters. I am saying that Ryan LaMarre played better than Byron Buxton and it wasn't even close. I am saying that any time I bring up Ryan LaMarre's name as part of the discussion, he becomes the point of discussion and I end up looking like I think Ryan LaMarre is the next JD Martinez. I wasn't the one who selected LaMarre for the 25 man roster. Ultimately, what I'm saying is that we had woeful play from a bunch of players and that is why we are sellers. While we may not have had great options... we had options because we get a 25 man roster just like all the other teams and Molitor elected not to go with those options to full extent and therefore went down with the ship. My opinion is that Roberts wouldn't do that. I could be wrong but I also might be right and I have been researching it before I presented it for consumption on Twinsdaily.

In a nutshell. I’m trying to be objective. I’m trying to be constructive and I am not calling for his head but I am trying to point out that there is another way of doing things. I do believe that Molitor is guilty of playing players everyday who didn’t deserve it.

I haven't changed my tune... I'm just really bad at explaining myself. I honestly don't understand how others can't see what I'm seeing. The only explanation is that I'm really bad at explaining myself.

Honestly... I have asked myself that. I've been researching this since June. I posted this back on July 1. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/30462-twins-game-started/?hl=%2Bdave+%2Broberts I don't know the answer to your question, but yes... I am still under the opinion that Dave Roberts wouldn't have allowed Buxton, Morrison, Sano, Dozier, Kepler and Wilson to do the damage they did for as long as they did and therefore would have done better than Molitor with the Twins. But... I want to stress, that I don't know the answer to your question, none of us do. I also fully recognize that it's hard for anyone to plug 6 holes with the roster limitations.

1. No... Ryan LaMarre received 69 AB's (out of his 99 with the Twins) from May 29 to June 23. Why then? Buxton was hurt... He was about to go on the D.L. LaMarre had to wait nearly two months until Buxton was put on the DL to end his 2018 before he got a chance. BTW... LaMarre hit .263 with a .313 OBP with the Twins. LaMarre is now up to .288 with a .333 OBP and a .727 OPS with the White Sox. Byron Buxton who got the playing time by starting 26 of his 28 healthy games hit .156 with an OBP of .183 and an OPS of .383 but LaMarre had to wait until Buxton got hurt first. LaMarre may have been a bad choice for depth and Buxton maybe the greatest prospect in Twins history but LaMarre was better than Buxton by quite a bit in 2018. Molitor was juggling on his unicycle making it much harder. 2. Agreed 3. Why do the Dodgers and Cubs have the luxury? My point isn't about AAAA types specifically. I am using Muncy and Bote as examples to say... "Play someone else" "Anyone Else" Ryan LaMarre, Gregorio Petit, Will Middlebrooks or Jim Gaffigan... I don't care. We had guys who were playing every single day and killing us.

If you go through every major league team. I think you'll find that all the teams have similar numbers. There is slight variance in the total team numbers but almost all teams are going to have 4 or 5 over 400 AB's and 13 to 15 players with at least 100 AB's. Due to 27 outs being the standard, All the teams have a similar amount of AB's and similar roster space.

Do the Twins or Dodgers or Cubs get more AB’s than the others to divide up or extra roster spots to allocate the playing time? Do injuries change the dynamic?

In my mind it is pretty simple... You have a 25 man roster. Utilize it. You never have to bench Carpenter completely... it isn't an either or proposition. When Carpenter starts pulling out of it, find a spot for him but two months of bad play will get your manager fired. Forsythe with the Dodgers was bad... The Dodgers never benched him completely. They gave him starts 5 out of 10 games. Yes... Maddon will stick with guys and I would to... But Maddon will minimize the damage that they do. Old School/New School is my designation and definition. Call it what you want but there is a clear difference how Roberts will handle his 25 man roster and how Molitor and Showalter handle their rosters. I know what I prefer.

I'll respond to each part sectioned off in order 1. I dismiss it very easily and this is how. Lets forget about sub-par play and AAA and just focus on this: Every year there are injuries. Sometime they are needing day to rest a hamstring or get over a cold. Sometimes it is just a 10 day DL stay. Sometimes it is months on the the shelf and sometimes they are shutting a player down for the year. They happen every year to every team and at frequency. There is no possible way that a front office can overlook this. If they put together a roster and say we got a starting 9 and we won't ever need those bench guys to play full time. They are under qualified for the position. So... if you consider the injuries that always happen. I think I'm safe to assume, that the club rostered Grossman, Adrianaza and LaMarre with full expectation that there will be injuries, therefore would have rostered them with the mindset that they are capable. OK... Now let's add Sub-Par play from the starting 9 to the discussion. If you rostered a player based on a faith that they can cover for an injured player. Why wouldn't you use them, when the player is not injured but playing really really bad. If the Manager doesn't believe in any player placed on the 25 man roster and is willing to absorb the results from Morrison and Buxton instead. That is an issue because there is no way a front office would roster a player who couldn't be trusted with every day playing time unless they didn't consider the possibility that someone will get hurt and the starting 9 are just going to play like they assumed. This might be bad 25 man roster management beyond Molitor's control but I have a hard time believing that the front office or room didn't believe in Grossman, Adrianaza or LaMarre. The play was bad... I believe a Manager there is a point where a manager needs to play anybody else. 2. If they don't have depth at AAA they need to acquire it. Many of on Twinsdaily, look at a AAAA acquisition in the off-season and Yawn but it can be important because if you hit, it's a free player. I think that the acquisition of Jake Cave was an attempt at doing that. All in All, I think the scouts need to do a better job of identifying it and acquiring it.I also believe it would be helpful, if the Twins got a reputation of giving a legitimate chance to those who perform. I do not blame Molitor for lack of depth at the AAA level but I will look his direction whenever someone is on the 25 man roster and not utilized on a team with struggling players. If you give them a uniform... give them a chance to keep the uniform. 3. See #2... The Dodgers are very very good at it. Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Kike Hernandez and Max Muncy have all been "Who are these guys acquisitions". that paid off big time and they have depth coming out of their ears and it isn't because they bought it like many assume. In my opinion, a very important reason that Turner, Taylor, Hernandez and Muncy were identified and producing at the major league level is because they played them. If Logan Forsythe isn't performing, they don't play Forsythe. They go with Max Muncy. I do not believe the Twins would do this. I believe that they will stay with Forsythe. Is that a fair belief... No because I have no idea but all I can do is look at how they handled things this year and pretty soon you belief that is quite plausible that they would stick with Forsythe and then claim that they had nobody better. 4. Muncy was released regardless... Bote was average. We may not have anyone at roster with those numbers but there are other Muncy and Bote type players out there. 5. By not blocking guys who could become something with players who are not being anything. Basically... by refusing to go down with the ship.

I'm doing a terrible job defining my viewpoint and by scattering it from thread to thread, I'm not helping my context. For clarity... I am trying my best to be even handed in my opinion of Molitor. I'm not calling for his head because of all things we don't see and therefore don't know. But obviously... I have points of contention based on what I can see. For more clarity on my opinion on the job Molitor did this year. When I consider that 6 of our every day 9 players were incredibly disappointing for MONTHS. When I consider that our starting rotation was average. When I consider that our bullpen (while also average), led the league in blown saves. When I consider all of that. I'll even go as far to say that Molitor did an amazing job just to be sitting with a .470 winning percentage. However... I compare that compliment to the guy who was able to juggle while riding a unicycle for 1 minute before dropping the balls. Very impressive but also questionable because the guy can juggle for 5 minutes without dropping the balls when he is NOT on the unicycle. In my opinion... by staying with those struggling guys for MONTHS almost exclusively... He made winning harder and now that .470 winning percentage doesn't seem so impressive to me. I'd like to see him get off the unicycle by 2019. Here is how I got here step by step and how David Bote became relevant in my eyes. 1. It all starts with my contention that Molitor didn't adjust to the conditions that developed during the course of the season. He stuck with struggling players and didn't try something else. Those who argue this, state that he had nobody else to try and I understand that thinking but I still say that we have a 25 man roster and I don't believe that you can't find someone on that 25 man roster or 40 man roster who can't out produce a .184 BA and .644 OPS at the DH position. They selected Grossman, Adrianaza and LaMarre and they had to reasonably expect that someone would get hurt or someone could possibly go bad on you. In a nutshell... No matter how much Grossman is hated by others. He should have played considerably more than Morrison did based on what they were producing. The job Molitor had to do was hard because player performance made it hard but I believe it was made near impossible because he didn't get off the unicycle. 2. Next I check to see if this is what all managers do. Sadly, Molitor is probably in the majority, Molitor goes into the Buck Showalter majority group who will play Chris Davis with his .565 OPS every single day and won't deviate. However, there is minority group of managers who are on the other side of that and they are the ones who will play David Bote and Max Muncy and slow down the playing time of the established player to accommodate solid play from out of nowhere type players. I have no proof that one style is better than the others but I have no doubt in my mind what I prefer. Maybe, Molitor would play Bote, but based on the loyalty he showed to our 6 struggling every day players (he did the same thing in 2016), his actions say differently. I contend that the Dodgers and Cubs end up creating their own depth this way and the Twins struggle finding depth this way. It is not a declaration that Bote is better than Schwarber or Happ based on 10 days because I realize that Bote may be back in Iowa as soon as he cools off and he just might do that. However, as long as he is on the roster and helping... Maddon will give him at-bats. I'm saying that we have a 25 man roster and I'd like to see Molitor get off the unicycle and start getting serious about his juggling. I'm not saying that Astundillo should replace Rosario. When that is thrown back at me... I'm clearly not being understood or am clearly not being taken seriously.

I won't do the grade thing. But... I'm excited about the long term And expecting better in 2019 for the short term. That's on things that I can observe. Behind the scenes I don't know what they have done or will do, in terms of improving the overall process, scouting, analytics, coaching, player development, etc and I think that is where the important stuff is happening.

They gave him a uniform. I like it when he gets a chance to keep it on.

Thanks for the list. I was going to do it. For a David Bote comp, we should probably include AAAA guys because Bote is an out of nowhere story, You and I both typed rookie which is kind of limiting and rookie wasn't really the reason I brought him up, it was Bote being nobody. I'd say Centeno, Granite and LaMarre (maybe Cave) would be the closest comps from your list but the list could get bigger still if we listed the "who are these guys" guys which (in my opinion) are closer Bote comps. Granite was a 27th ranked prospect, so he was ranked but I think Granite is a "who are these guys" guy. In 2015: Buxton and Sano were #1 and #2 in the system. Rosario was top ten. I don't feel they are good comps, but I will say this, just to show that I'm capable of objectivity. As I'm started looking through 2015. Molitor and the front office did a pretty good job of adjusting on the fly. They opened 2015 with Santana at SS, Arcia in LF, Schaefer in CF and Vargas at DH. However, a point could still be made that the guys that Molitor/Front office were willing to adjust, were all under 25. I apologize... I didn't have the time to post as comprehensibly as I'd like and I probably won't tonight or tomorrow but I will.

Have I said that Reed and Pressly and Hildenberger have been over used. I’ve said that Molitor will keep giving them the ball when they are struggling but I haven’t said they were overused. I have looked at the D Backs pen and the Twins Pen usage. My theory is that the games used numbers are high in both cases because they were healthy. Don’t attach that discussion to me. That is others... it’s not mine.

Bringing up Astundillo isn’t taking me seriously. That’s making your point by being unnecessarily extreme and gives the impression that I’m saying bench Rosario for Astundillo. Happ hasn’t been benched by the Cubs and you said that you are pretty sure Molitor would bench him. Is any part of this post not true?

Isn’t that what I’m doing? I might not be comparing to the average manager. But old school with new school. But isn’t that what I’m doing. I’m providing examples.

I have to get to work... so I'll respond to this later after I do some research, because first, I want to know many Rookies have gotten at least 100 AB's?