Riverbrian

Maybe I’m not following. Who Knows. You seem to downplay adding another 2 WAR player to a bunch of 2 WAR players. You mentioned that adding Marwin upticked our win projection 1 win. Brock stated that he doesn’t think they probably are not truly representing the replacement level player. You replied that the replacement player doesn’t play enough and the players who play are the ones that do the damage. I agree with you and I’m saying that’s the problem. If removing a Ryan LaMarre type from the roster doesn’t increase our win projection. They are doing it wrong in my opinion. Having 12 2 WAR guys increases the odds that one of them become a 5 but more importantly it provides the option of not playing 0 WAR Logan Morrison because of Taylor Motter wasting space. If you can’t or won’t sign a 5 WAR guy. Your best option is to flood it with 2’s. I agree with Brock. I’m not sure this properly calculated.

You are right... replacement players are not given the opportunity to be bad... and this makes them bad. Actually worthless. If they can’t replace Morrison... they are the very definition of worthless wasted roster space. The team may easily move from Motter to Petit to the next guy without thinking twice about it but that combination of expendables becomes a collective and Morrison is still killing us. 25 players who can play and 25 players who the manager trusts to play is more important than Harper by himself in my opinion.

I watched him play Catcher last year and I came away with no concerns. I can't speak for Molitor or the front office but the first call up for Astudillo was a different role. He didn't come up as a catcher and I am of the opinion that Molitor has trouble blurring those lines. He came up as the utility guy and he only did utility things and ended up sitting on the bench watching the team not hit the baseball while Bobby Wilson became the primary catcher for some very tough to explain reason. When he came up the 2nd time... Wilson was gone... Castro and Garver were hurt. So, Astudillo did the bulk of the catching. Anyway... He looked fine.... He looked better than Garver did defensively in my opinion. All this did was shake my faith in the evaluation process. I am now of the opinion that they make decisions and sometimes those opinions might be based upon antique ideas of roster management or because the player made an initial impression that stuck to him unfairly but most of all, those decisions are often made with razor thin margins. I am now of the opinion, that major league clubs (not just the Twins) get things wrong and they get things wrong frequent enough that any blind faith that they get it right because it is what they do for a living would be a mistaken evaluation of the process on my part.

Both Garver and Astudillo have options. One should be on the Twins Roster. The other should be on the Red Wings roster. Both should remain on the 40 man roster with smiles on our face.

https://www.mlb.com/video/hinch-altuve-on-marwin-gonzalez-c2522974983

If I was A.J. Hinch... I'd hate to lose Marwin in his Swiss army knife role. I would also never forget that Alex Bregman is a natural Shortstop no matter how many times he lined up at 3B with Correa playing SS. I would also have in my notes somewhere that Yuli Gurriel was a SS, 2B and 3B with the Cuban National Team before Astros team context forced him to 1B. With Altuve out, I would certainly take the opportunity to give Gurriel a look someplace that isn't normally available. I'd also be very happy to give Tyler White a chance to play 1B by moving Gurriel to a different position. Flexibility is a natural by-product of depth. If you have depth and yet you still ignore flexibility... then you no longer have depth because you killed it and did so willfully and for no practical reason.

Baseball has been putting players into boxes for decades. This is our SS, This is our LF, Starting Pitcher, Closer, Set Up, LOOGY. Utility player are guys who couldn't get a regular gig and so forth. It's been going on so long that... I'm sorry to those that this might offend but... Some(seemingly most) just can't see it because of an overwhelming need to place everyone into these same boxes. If teams can't acquire a player like Marwin... they need to create their own version immediately, not only do teams need one player like Marwin, they need two. If they have three of them... better still. You can do it with players who hit much much better than Marwin does. Any thought that a utility player isn't allowed to be a hitter is just plain wrong. Also keep in mind, that as people say that Marwin provides insurance in case any of our players get hurt... Marwin could be the guy who gets hurt. Dear Twins, make more of these guys... please. Marwin might take our 21 million in go right into the tank but I'll applaud the signing now and I'll applaud the signing afterwards if he goes right into the tank. Signing a player like this is exactly the right direction this organization needs to go and needs to keep going with stopping. Players like Marwin allow you to sign players like Cruz and Cron.

Exactly This Twins team has managed to find the floor many many times and like Butch Cassidy said "It's the Floor that'll kill ya".

The Twins need to get bullpen serious. It’s easier said than done but it has to happen. 7 or 8 guys in the pen... whatever it takes but the manager has to believe in all 7 or 8 guys. If the manager or front office doesn’t trust a guy to Hang zero... get him off the roster or on the DL so you can try someone else. No one can afford to burn a roster spot and I will no longer tolerate a manager handing the ball to a guy who is failing just because it was determined previously that he was supposed to be better. That is simply putting your food in a broken microwave over and over again hoping it will cook the food this time. There are moments in life when you have to build a fire to try something else or go hungry. We went hungry because we kept thinking the microwave would start working again.

Ahh... Well... No telling what the future holds . A 26 man roster will be a political football for both sides to fire out of cannon at each other. Last CBA... The Owners were willing to go to 26 if the players would allow a cap of 28 on September Rosters. They couldn't agree, tabled it and this next go round... I don't think anyone will be agreeable. I think the GM's will have to figure out how to make the constraints of a 25 man roster work for the time being. Personally... as I stated earlier... I believe the answer is too have your good relievers go longer instead of the LOOGY one batter at a time approach.

I believe the data that clearly states that pitchers are less effective the third time through the order will lead to 13 man staffs. I believe the increased successful use of the bullpen is leading to the 13 man staffs. I don't believe the opener has anything to do with that because that is just sequencing. Some Managers are going to want to manage the back end of games like it was still 1984 but the super bullpen has now been created. Boone has a stable of arms to help him manage the back end of games. He might want to lock into Chapman for the 9th and Betances for the 8th out of some hard pulling gravitational force of consistency or contract negotiations based upon saves... BUT... BUT... He no longer has to. The model has been shattered. If Kevin Cash had Boone's bullpen... He might let Chapman throw the 7th through 9th in a one run game against a left heavy lineup... knowing that Chapman can rest a day or two afterwards with Ottovino, Britton, Green, Kahnle available to throw the 9th or 8th tomorrow. Cash might bring Chapman into the game in the 5th innings with the bases loaded and one out. The extra roster spot that will be created? I haven't thought about it.Probably won't until it happens. I think teams will be going to 13 man pitching staff for the majority of the season out of necessary. They might not start with 13... but they will end up there and the 12 positions players are going to need extra gloves for the extra positions... but regardless if the pitching staffs need to be 13 or 12... I still believe that players should have extra gloves regardless. Flexibility is not only necessary... It's helpful as safety nets from injury and poor performance across the diamond.

i Agree with everything you typed. I believe the opener concept is just a change in sequencing... There are times to do it and times not to do it just like there are times to bunt and times that you shouldn't. The only nitpick I have is that I don't believe it guarantees the use of 4 or 5 pitchers... I believe it guarantees nothing. I look at it like a new type of sand wedge for getting out of a bunker. It just might help but in the wrong hands... there is still a possibility that you are going to be swinging again from the sand. When I look at Tampa Bay... the opener is just a distraction from what really happened last summer with them. They found a way to survive without traditional starters for the overwhelming majority of the season. They went a month with only Blake Snell as a traditional starter. They traded Chris Archer without missing a beat. They found a new (and exciting) way to get more innings out of relievers who were getting the job done and get less innings from those filler starters that were killing every other team in baseball. It no longer matters to me if Jose Berrios (or any of our pitchers) starts in the 1st inning or the 2nd inning. I've gone rogue. The only thing that matters to me is: How many innings did you throw? Were those innings effective? Give the innings to those who are effective. Don't care if they are starters or relievers. This is what Tampa did. The opener just became a distracted discussion point. The subject should be bull-penning. If Taylor Rogers is hanging zeroes... Get him more innings to hang those zeroes. I believe it is decades old nonsense to follow some prehistoric formula that Rogers can only throw an inning at a time. While the manager forces Odorizzi to throw as many as humanly possible regardless if he is consistently reduced to ashes after pitch 75. That is strict adherence to a decade old system and the decade old system is costing you wins. You are correct the best answer is to find starters 1-5 that are lights out. Because 5 guys like that will hang zeroes over and over again... but very few teams... if any... are finding 5 guys like that and the result is paying Ricky Nolasco 48 million. How do you accomplish what I'm asking... Lengthen out everyone who doesn't need to be reduced because they are terrible. The 6 out save is not an impossible ask. The 9 out save isn't either. Just stop trying to get 6 innings out of a guy with a 5 plus ERA and get bullpen serious. Romero can work out of the bullpen and he doesn't have to be reduced to 1 inning at a time unless he consistently gets beat up in his 2nd inning of work. He can throw 140 innings out of the bullpen and stay stretched out for a traditional starter role in the future. Great Post Jim... I agree with you... But I'm guessing I may have lost you a little with my extended comments.

Yes Take a look what is happening now. Rumors of Matt Davidson also pitching and rumors of Lorenzen also hitting for the Reds. I’ll contend to all comers that baseball specialization was wrong for decades and decades. Shohei was the first guy because Japan allowed him to. MLB would have never allowed it. They would force him into one or the other. We would have seen multiple players with this skill set by now if the option wasn’t removed as a possibility for decades. Same goes for the Bryant/Bellinger multiple positional talents.

The Rays didn’t use an opener for Snell. Despite unquestioned success with the concept they still acquired Charlie Morton. The Rays and every team will continue to look for traditional starters who can throw lots of quality innings. The problem is that very few teams can staff a 5 man rotation with 5 guys who can throw quality innings and down with that ship they go like a bad auto-pilot. The Rays just said enough of that. No more forcing a 5+ ERA in to a traditional starter role just to eat innings below par... and it worked and now others will follow. The opener was just a creative solution but a partial solution. The opener is just sequencing... not a big deal in itself but it is what everyone is latching on to. Take a look at the innings allocation of each pitcher on the Rays... that’s where the real story is. They blurred the lines between starter and reliever innings... and it worked. Just another example that the traditional model of roster composition breing clearly outdated. Free agent compensation, positional flexibility, players who can both pitch and hit. Cue Bob Dylan “The times they are a changin”. And it’s about time.

Cool... blogger rankings!

Use of an opener is just an adjustment in sequence. It is nothing to be afraid of.

I remember... It about Killed me.

During his 2nd go round with the Twins last year... the go round that he was allowed to play catcher. He appeared to be a decent enough defensive catcher. I'm not going to claim he's top of the pile elite but he certainly wasn't an issue behind the plate in my opinion. His position flexibility is a bonus that I love but... if he can hit with decent enough defensive skill behind the plate. He's then immediately ahead of almost every catcher in the league who typically can't hit much. I'd say primary position is catcher with the occasional starts elsewhere. Both Garver and Astudillo have options... One stays up... One in Rochester as the first call up. Choose Well Front Office... Choose Well.

If you believe in him... You believe in him. This contract isn't cripplin by any stretch of the imagination. If it goes bust... Oh Well... That's life. The contract isn't crippling. Now...The Super Two status... That's a little tough to swallow... .We wasted 16 days of service time in April 2016, The OF was falling apart, the team was falling apart and he got 12 AB's during this time on the bench in April. Those 16 days of bench time would have had him pretty close to the super two cutoff. I'd build a statue for Terry Ryan in his honor... but there are times like these where I would walk up to the statue and yell at it.

Flexibility is a natural by-product of depth. The Astros have depth and they strive to keep themselves deep. Lose Marwin... Make a trade for Diaz... Problem solved. As they stand right now... they have Springer, Reddick, Marisnick, Kemp, Brantley and even Bregman who can play OF plus this Tucker Kid who is knocking on the door. They have Gurriel, White and Brantley to play 1B. Altuve, Diaz and Kemp to play 2B. Bregman, Gurriel and Diaz to play 3B. Correa, Bregman and Diaz who can play SS. They have purchased insurance for everything. They are bulletproof. Michael Cuddyer was asked at the Winter Meltdown about his playing multiple positions and he said something along the lines of "I'm a Ball Player". Austin, Cron, Duda... sign as many as you like but in the end... They can't all play 1B. Someone will have to track some flyballs or we end up being a team that has extreme depth at 1B and lacking depth every place else.

Yep... that’s why the possibility can’t be dismissed. Players are deployed based on availability all the time. Nick Senzel is learning OF as we speak because the Reds have Suarez and Scooter at 3B and 2B. The list of these type of position shifts is lengthy. No idea if he can play OF but playing 1B with Yankees would not be a trustworthy indicator in my opinion. Do I trust Molitor usage with the Twins as an indicator. I absolutely do not. Austin should have received OF time in September. He did not. I’m not ready to blame Tyler Austin’s ability for that. Lucas Duda could certainly push Austin out the door if Austin isn’t capable at a different position. Casualties like that happen all the time.

Ever since he signed with us... I've had Camptown Races in my head on repeat. He certainly can do that for me.

My wish is this From your fingertips to the eyeballs of the front office.

After last year... I worry about everybody.

If my math is right. The Twins just purchased one year of free agency and potentially a 2nd year. He should be 32 when he becomes a free agent. I believe it's a good gamble and I'm happy for Max. I'm just going to continue my perpetual hope that the Front Office recognizes the gamble for what it is and understands that the money being paid is the cost of doing business and is therefore fully prepared to not go down with the ship... if the ship goes down. If Kepler is hitting below average and still playing all 162 games just to try and justify the extension by forcing it... It will be a bad move. If Kepler is hitting below average but they allow someone else to surpass him for playing time despite the millions owed. I will be OK with the extension because... they took a shot. They rolled the dice and they can try again next year and the money does not bankrupt them. Extensions are fine... as long as the organization doesn't allow an extension to kill your team if it doesn't work out. With that said... Go Get EM MAX!!!