Riverbrian

Correa has made the timing perfect to repeat myself here. In order to keep the sanctity of our extreme platoon system. You must roster an equal amount of below average players who are just bad enough to fill a short side platoon role. If we are going to strictly platoon young lefties like Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner. You have to sign right handed hitters who struggle against right handers but can hit left handers. After all... if they could hit both right handers and left handers... they wouldn't be short side platoon guys. They'd be like Polanco for example... who hits both hands and plays every day so no need to short side him. You have to find these specific players to make your lineup pretty. 3 spots on your 26 man roster who can't hit right handers to support the guys who can't hit left handers. This off-season our front office faced with a budget reduction spent considerable effort to find below average players to make the jigsaw puzzle pieces of the 26 man roster fit and spent money we don't have to do it just to keep the sanctity of the extreme platoon system intact. Farmer was already here... Margot was acquired. The extreme platoon system requires that players like Farmer and Margot are necessary. Roster set: Roster all pretty. Left and Right handcuffs have uniforms... Now let's go play 162 games. It's like making your bed to military standard. That bed is looking good all tucked perfect until the season starts and soon the sheets and pillows are all over the place. Farmer: Career .658 OPS vs RH Margot: Career .662 OPS vs RH That's the price you pay to keep your young lefthanded hitters away from lefthanders. You got to roster these guys to protect them. That's a steep price. When Lewis and Correa go down... Margot and Farmer have to face those right handers because they are the extra players on your roster. So what have you accomplished with that pretty roster? You've fortified against the left handed pitcher that you face 25% of the time at the expense of compromising your abilities against right handed pitchers that you face 75%. Let's repeat those numbers: Farmer: Career .658 OPS vs RH Margot: Career .662 OPS vs RH There are people in this world who will excuse the front office because injuries derailed the club. I'm not one of those people. Injuries should be expected. They built this roster. They went out and got Margot, they kept Farmer (I like Farmer BTW... Unfortunately I have to talk about him this way to make my point) and they traded Polanco. Sub-Par players against right handers taking up roster space is the price you pay. It's a heavy price to pay just to bottle neck their development. :

I wonder who is on a plane from MSP to DTW this morning. Or is it someone flying in from ICT? Helman? What's the 40 man move to make that happen. His numbers are not great but he can play anywhere defensively. Emmanuel Rodriquez? Making the jump from AA. He's killing it right now and already on the 40. Awfully young but we don't have an obvious choice to fill an open 26 man spot. Severino? He hasn't gotten off the best start... Actually... it could be defined as a really really bad start with the Saints. Lee? Hurt Larnach? Hurt Who else?

Every year we forget that this happens every year.

Yeah... I'm in a I told ya so mood this morning. Every off-season we forget about injuries while we talk about the serious log jam problem and who must go to clear it. This morning... I'd like to remind everyone so we have less of this log jam talk next off-season, less of the we got to trade Royce Lewis to make room talk next off-season.

Just stopping by the water to check on that log jam. Memories are short. Next off-season just like every off season... we will speak of those mythical log jams once again. I've still never seen one. I'll keep checking.

Relax everyone... the song is fine. The graphic video played simultaneously on the big screen might have been a bit much though.

That 6% swing on either side of the 25% across the league is probably explained by bullpen usage to attack the left handed heavy Cleveland compared to the Right handed heavy to right handed. The bulk innings by starters is probably closer to static. That's 6% is typically deployed one inning at a time.

Vazquez will play 50% of the time. Catchers are pricey. Correa on the other hand. He absolutely needs to live up to at least a significant portion of his salary.

Possible... If they can find enough. If they can find enough lefties to 40% us as you suggest... What kind of quality are we talking to reach past the 25% currently on rosters. Always remember... no matter what the collective numbers say... it's still case by case individual against individual. In other words... If a team is that committed to attacking via the split that they are willing to throw sub-par lefties. Bring it on. If I was left handed... I'd choose to face Smeltzer over Joe Ryan.

While on paper better against right handed pitching that will throw at you 3 times more. With that proportion. Loading up on lefties has to be a bigger statistical advantage than the disadvantage of left on left 25% of the time.

All teams slump throughout the season and they do so at different times that are hard to predict. As a team your back is squarely against the wall for the entirety of the season when you use up your allotted amount of slump before April has concluded. If you slump in August... Sorry... you can't... your allotment was used up in April.

Exactly. Having a dog is great but you can't teach a dog to use the toilet and flush... dogs still need to relieve themselves and there isn't much that can be done. It's a disadvantage of dog ownership that you have to absorb in order to have a dog. What you can do is teach the dog to least go outside in the yard instead of on the living room carpet. The left vs left split disadvantage is real. We can't change it... but we can accept it and maybe soften it. Getting Julien to a 108 wRC+ is the equivalent of getting him to stop peeing at the plate. Those left handed dogs are necessary because 75% of the cats are right handed.

Big Picture: The Twins are not going to be big players in the free agent market. I know many don't like that and many will argue that the Twins are cheap and that they should open up the checkbook. However... those who have been paying attention over the years surely have come to the conclusion that the Twins are not going to be big players in the free agent market. Carlos Correa was a shock... are we really expecting another Carlos Correa type signing on the horizon? I'm not expecting that. Even if the Twins were to sign another player with a big price tag to join the club... in order to afford that big price tag... they will need a lot of young players making the minimum to afford it. If the Twins are not going to sign the top end free agents and they are not going to. Sustained success for the Twins is going to depend upon development of the young players. If you consider the left handed disadvantage against southpaws. How will they deploy Walter Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriquez when they reach the 26 man roster? We can say Walter is special... will he be treated special with an organization this committed to the lefty/lefty thing. Can we have a functional roster with Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner, Jenkins and Rodriquez on the same roster. Those 6 on the same roster at young player prices could give the organization some financial wiggle room to afford a top line player with a price tag. 6 Million for Farmer and 4 million for Margot does not give the organization financial wiggle room to think bigger... you have to always think smaller to roster a short side guy. On the subject of development on the right side of the plate. In order to provide a handcuff for the young left handed hitter... you need the right handed handcuff. Is that what we want to turn Martin or Miranda into? Now you are compromising the development of a young right handed hitter so you can compromise the development of a young left handed hitter. Short term gain... long term loss. Compromising development across the board is not survivable. We will be plugging holes with Margot, Garlick types forever more.

No question... the platoon split shows a left handed hitter disadvantage. How many lefties they have faced over the years is an acceptable theory on why left against left is the widest swing of the 4 batter vs pitcher matchups possible. However... Let's bring Max Kepler into the discussion. Max has thus far produced a career .787 OPS against Right Handers and .645 against left handers. Those numbers support what you are saying and they support my recognition of the obvious left hander disadvantage. Yet Kepler isn't platooned at least not typically... he may get the occasional off day against a left hander but Kepler will be starting in RF against Framber Valdez in the playoffs. Why does Kepler get the opportunity? Defense I'm sure is a factor but perhaps the biggest point is this. Someone has to. We have 4 natural left handed hitters on the roster and the roster only has room for 3 platoons. There is nowhere to run... nowhere to hide. If Tony Oliva's .690 is the best that can be done. Well help your young hitter get to .690 then. It's better than .550 So unless you are going to stack your lineup with right handed hitters and absorb that lesser right on right disadvantage 75% of the time. Lefties will be called upon to step into that box against the southpaw. Nowhere to run... Nowhere to hide.

I'd love to hear some thoughts on this. There are other splits, other data points for match up consideration. How batters do against fastballs, breaking pitches, change ups for example. There has to be a lot of data produced with all of the analysts being employed and with all that data... lineup construction seemingly hasn't advanced past the right hander/left hander thing. Like they are only data points that matter.

For example... the bases are loaded in the 5th inning. Manager brings in a left handed pitcher to face Kirilloff. Bringing in Margot (So he can bunt?) makes some sense. Swapping a .292 OBP for a .342 OBP makes some sense. Swapping a .637 OPS for a .766 makes some sense. However, please consider that there is still game to go. More innings where runs can be produced are still scheduled for competition. Margot with his .662 OPS against right handers will be facing right handers the rest of the way as the innings of opportunity become less and less ending potentially with the right handed closer in the 9th when there are no innings left. The problem is though while I can understand the pinch hit in a key situation. Rocco doesn't do that. He pushes the button with 4 run leads, 4 run deficits, he pulls our young lefties with two outs and nobody on. He yanked Julien before he got a chance to bat last year. It's auto pilot... Southpaw into the game... Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner out. We are making it much harder for Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner to sign that big free agent contract in the future so Margot can be the hero. We are minimizing the trade value of Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner so Margot can be the hero. We are paying millions (that we don't have) to Margot to make it harder for Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner to become more valuable. But,... for that one AB. We went from a 29% chance of reaching base to a 34% chance. Add 5 green balls to the 100 ball raffle drum.

Ten Years After But I don't know what to do.

Agree with everything you wrote. However... IMO... Yes... you still have to give them AB's. Because of Martha and the Vandella's.

I agree However... 75% of the arms are right handed. So... if you are really playing the numbers... More lefties.

Yeah... I won't argue the research. Tony Oliva had a career .890 against RH and .690 against LH. Justin Morneau was .886 against RH and .710 against LH. Joe Mauer was .868 against RH and .740 against LH. It's why I'm not anti-platoon. I get it. Moderation is what I'm asking. My doctor told me that wine is good for me. On my next visit... my doctor told me that drinking 5 bottles a night and throwing up on the cat is not good for me.

Thanks String... Oh Boy... Do I love this topic. As much as I complain about the extreme platooning being done by Rocco. At the same time... I also recognize that Rocco has consistent statistical justification for it. The Numbers for 2023 posted by IndyTwin are large sample numbers that are repeatable year after year. The left handed hitter consistently has the harder time against the southpaw. I say it often... I'm not anti-platoon. I get it and it isn't just the hitters splits. You also have to factor in the pitchers splits so the split margin is larger when you combine them both together. However... no matter what the collective says. IMO you can't just follow this data without question like Rocco seems to. 1. We are still talking about individuals and not the collective in each individual matchup. A good left handed hitter is still a good hitter even if he doesn't hit lefties as well as righties and the actual advantage at a per AB basis is probably miniscule. Julien's home run yesterday didn't prove anything because it's a small sample... just like Julien striking out against a lefty doesn't prove anything in such a small sample. But... Julien is a good hitter and probably more likely to go deep against a lefty than Margot is against a lefty... you got keep putting him up there against the southpaws for a couple of years before you decide... OK... He's Joc Pederson. 2. We are still talking about development. Exposure is necessary for improvement. Don't cement him into this lesser role for a marginal increase in odds of success. When you have a young players with 4, 5, 6 years of control... they can become so much more than what they currently are. Don't doom your talented lefties to this for a possible marginal advantage in one AB in one game. 3. And... this is often overlooked and it shouldn't be. Players get hurt... team context can change on a dime. Not letting Julien or Kirilloff face left handers in April, May, June and July is going to make your team vulnerable when Correa and Lewis both go down in late September and that almost happened last year. We didn't know the status of Correa and Lewis on the eve of the playoffs. If you lose a couple of key right handed hitters at the wrong time and you will be forced to turn Julien against Framber Valdez in the playoffs. Sorry... wouldn't let you face Angel Zerpa during the regular season but we need you to come up big against Framber now. Yeah... I know... we can always pull a Jordan Luplow or Kyle Garlick off the waiver wire and win the world series. 😄 4. Speaking of Luplow and Garlick. Perhaps an even more important point. In order to set up 3 platoons for Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner. You have to sign 3 lesser players to hold down the short side. Luplow, Garlick types... Margot for example. You are not going to sign JD Martinez for a short side platoon. 3 lesser players on your roster makes it impossible to have the decent depth necessary to cover for injuries that are going to happen or unforeseen bad performance that happens ever year. Last year Solano worked out decently but he wasn't brought on to play as much as he did. He had to play because of injuries. You actually sacrifice talent to maintain the platoon. Just go get talent instead is my opinion. In a nutshell... The collective stats absolutely support Rocco's extreme sheltering of lefties against lefties but I still say the 4 points above negate what could be a tiny margin statistical advantage at the individual AB level.

Ash has more likes than Rod Carew!!!

Adjustments are probably necessary however I'm not sure how you can change adjust for the modern day without causing serious upheaval to the data from decades past.

Thanks for sharing. That's why you are one of the best. And of course Kudo's to Do Young Park! That is above and beyond reporting.

Where did you get that? That is fantastic. I'd like my hands on something like that.