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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. Riverbrian
    When you say I offer no solutions. I've written about 1,000 pages on the subject. Are you asking because we had to have Manual Margot... If Not Manual... By God who else is out there? Are you asking me to name names? I haven't done that. Are you requiring me to pull a Lars Nootbaar or something out of the air? I'm sorry if that's the case... It's not going to happen. I don't offer faux trades and assume they execute because I say so. It's good that Manual Margot has .899 OPS from June 1 to July 3. You mention that a lot... That's awesome... Let's get him in the lineup every day.
  2. Riverbrian
    I can't expand the roster to 45. It's set by law at 26 unless there is a doubleheader. By asking me if I'm going to expand the roster to 45. You really are not understanding my point. 26 spots with 13 typically held for pitching. 13 spots for position players and 9 need to play in every lineup. Because there are only 26 roster spots... it kind of suggests that Margot was going to be called upon. If the roster is 45... You can keep 3 or 4 Margot's around. I wouldn't complain as much. Since it's 26 spots... My solution... I wouldn't have rostered Margot at all. I would have thought to myself, I've only got 26 spots... we are going to need everyone on the 26 man so let's not roster someone who has never been able to hit right handed pitching. I understand that if 5 guys get hurt in the first month that the team is probably going to be forced into playing someone with lesser ability so I'd try not to purposely roster players with proven lesser ability like they did with Margot. Once you roster a player with lesser ability... you don't have to let them keep demonstrating that they have lesser ability.
  3. Riverbrian
    "Julien sucks, Castro removed from OF play and stationed at 2B - Kirilloff to IL - Wallner can’t hit in April, sent down (biggest issue) - Kepler out most of 3 weeks, IL - Larnach bad toe can’t be brought up, IL - Buxton out with knee problems, IL - Lewis out 58 games, Quad, IL and Castro at 3B many games, no OF play - etc………..often no left handed options for corner OF action or no other option in CF". Yes you are right... this is why Margot is getting more AB's against Right Handed Pitching. Nobody could see this coming when it happens every single year without fail? You can't justify off-season planning for these things by saying "Does “forced into action” mean anything"? He was fated the minute he was acquired to being forced into action because these things always happen. Forced into action means nothing to me. "Don’t see any spots where additions are needed - nor do I see issues with the length of the line-up as some elude to above". I might be the some you refer to. I know I've been eluding to lengthening the lineup to try and cover for pitching. You are ignoring your own post and not considering stuff like "Julien sucks, Castro removed from OF play and stationed at 2B - Kirilloff to IL - Wallner can’t hit in April, sent down (biggest issue) - Kepler out most of 3 weeks, IL - Larnach bad toe can’t be brought up, IL - Buxton out with knee problems, IL - Lewis out 58 games, Quad, IL and Castro at 3B many games, no OF play - etc………..often no left handed options for corner OF action or no other option in CF". There are still three months of baseball to be played plus the playoffs. Any chance of these types of things happening during the rest of July, August, September and the playoffs?
  4. Riverbrian
    I like your optimism and I agree with you... I also do not see us forking over the money or the trade pieces necessary to land a pitcher like Scherzer. However... I think it will be expensive to land the other starters you list as possible. Who knows... I've been wrong before. On the bullpen side of things. There are a few arms I like in our current pen but it's not 8 deep like it needs to be. The current left handed arm contingent doesn't make me sleep easy. I'd like to see the Twins try to get a decent left handed reliever to shore up the port side. A decent left handed reliever... not just a left hander who breathes at best. Offense: Make the Phone Calls - Take the phone calls. Look for ways to lengthen the lineup. Make it stronger because I agree with you... we won't get the big name starter at the trade deadline and the offense may have to cover for that. No matter what the front office does: It's July... This team needs to consider itself a playoff team right now and going forward.
  5. Riverbrian
    I like your concept and I agree with the concept. Here is my simplification: If you are going to play every day... you need to play like a player that should play every day. Playing Santana every day like he is Freddie Freeman is actually a deficit because Santana is not Freeman. If you are going to play average baseball like Santana. You need to yield playing time so others can prove they are better. If you are below average... you better not have an expiring contract. Sidenote: I personally don't use WAR either Fangraphs or Baseball Ref. I just don't trust zone metrics and I believe that zone metrics are over weighted in the measurement of WAR.
  6. Riverbrian
    13 players who can play. I've said that many times. I'll keep saying it. Bench? I don't believe in one. I believe bench time is earned through performance and I believe in replacing the players who earn bench time so therefore... I don't believe in a bench.
  7. Riverbrian
    As much as I have been complaining about things on this site lately. The truth is... I have no complaints. It's been a nice first half. The offense has been better than expected... I still think it has the potential to be better and I still think it needs to be better because: The pitching has been what I have expected. I was pretty sure that the collective pitching staff was going to down tick in comparison to last year. So... I felt that improved offense was the best way to over come the pitching down tick. If the Twins are going to win the world series this year... they will need to do it like the Rangers did it last year. By beating everybody with their bats.
  8. Riverbrian
    There are indeed much worse problems to have... but the problem has tenticles and dominos that stretch beyond the last spot on the roster. 1. The end of the 26 man is often lightly considered by fans. After all... a player who never plays isn't an issue until you need him to play. At that point he becomes an issue. Farmer has 151 AB's. He's a consistent starter against left handed pitchers. He's playing. Listing him as the second backup IF isn't really accurate. 2. Carlos Santana has been a decent free agent pickup. However... His OPS is .737 which is a little above average. His OPS against Right Handed pitchers is .686 which is below average. Yes Santana has been a decent free agent pickup but those are not... we should stop looking for a better player numbers. Those are not... must play every day numbers. 3. Trevor Larnach has done a decent job taking over for Matt Wallner. His OPS is .723... Yes Larnach has done a decent job but .723 is not... we should stop looking for a better player numbers. 4. Max Kepler has an OPS of .704... that is average. Yes... He was much worse last year at this time and he got extremely hot. However... unless he gets extremely hot... Average production is not... we should stop looking for a better player numbers. Kyle Farmer does not push Santana, Larnach or Kepler for playing time. Kyle Farmer on the 26 man provides no alternatives to average above him. It locks in Average above him... It prevents the team from lengthening the lineup with better hitters. It settles for average above him. An example of pushing someone for playing time? Brooks Lee is currently pushing players for playing time. If he continues to hit the ball... he could move Willie Castro to different positions which challenges Larnach or Kepler or Santana for playing time. Matt Wallner was sent down with a .513 OPS after 25 AB's (I think it was the right thing to do). Since recalled to the majors... In just 4 games and 11 AB's. He has raised that OPS to .911. Will he continue... who knows? but if he continues to hit the ball like this or at least hits the ball better than Larnach going forward... He is going to push Larnach for playing time and the lineup in September and the playoffs lengthens. Kyle Farmer or Manual Margot for that matter... do not push players for playing time. They take roster spots from players who could push players for playing time. I will never look at the 26th spot on a 26 man roster and minimize it's importance and there is never any reason to take a player producing average results and stop looking. The Twins offense has been great this year. It needs to be... the offense is going to have to cover for our pitching which isn't as strong. It's been great but there are three spots that could use improvement. It would be nice to enter the playoffs with a scary lineup card. Someone like Castro batting last in the order because 1 through 8 are monsters. You won't have 8 monsters... when two on the roster are short siders and 3 are merely average. Cull from the bottom and compete from within.
  9. Riverbrian
    Every front office aren't automatically right. I was just thinking this morning after watching Joey Bart hit a grand slam that San Francisco would love to have Joey Bart in the lineup against the Twins this weekend. Every team makes these mistakes. The Twins have chosen to protect left handed hitters against left hander pitchers and the roster was set for this purpose. It doesn't mean they are right but I'm sure they have some data that suggests they should.
  10. Riverbrian
    I have no doubt that the front office, scouts, analysts, coaches are all better at this sort of thing than any of us. They do this for a living. But there is a very very very strong argument against your point in support of justification on the basis of managements opinion. No matter how much they know and they know a lot. They are still wrong often because the job is hard and performances are not guaranteed. Did they expect the numbers that Farmer has produced this year when they picked up the 6 million for this year? Did they know that Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff were going to struggle. If they did... why did they bother breaking camp with them? they could have just given our best hitter Jose Miranda a roster spot out of spring training instead? In hindsight do they sign Joey Gallo again. Did they know Correa would OPS .711 in 2023 immediately after signing for 200 million which is the largest contract by far in Twins history.
  11. Riverbrian
    While Lewis is out. It can be done. 1. Move Brooks Lee to 2B, 2. Miranda 3B 3. Castro plays multiple positions. 4. While Santana has been doing well... I have no complaints. He's not Freddie Freeman and doesn't deserve the playing time that Freddie Freeman gets. Santana is 2nd on the team in AB's and he can yield playing time with a .704 OPS against right handers. 5. Larnach and Kepler are also not Freddie Freeman either so the DH spot is also in play.
  12. Riverbrian
    Nature figures out a way. The species adapted to it's environment. The species evolved and was able to adapt to a life with no food, water or litter box and more astonishingly... the cat was able to reproduce. The Box was opened in January of this year. It created a super cat. Here's a video of what happened. If you think the cats that we know today could care less about you. This new super cat really really doesn't give a damn.
  13. Riverbrian
    Cleveland currently has 5 left handed hitters and 3 switch hitters on their 26 man roster. I'd be OK with that in Minnesota. 😉
  14. Riverbrian
    Martin hasn't been in the lineup against LHP. He's been the odd man out because we are short on left handed hitters and over loaded in the right batters box. That equation would change if Wallner becomes a third left handed hitter on the roster and if Margot and Farmer were released.
  15. Riverbrian
    I use the word struggles. 😉 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My point is that they should try carry one guy so you have room for another guy. Don't roster lesser players for one specific skill. Why? You answered why when you explained the disparity. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- These things, Larnach's toe, Kepler's shin, Wallner's ineptititude, Kirilloffs inability to be effective, Buxton's knee - Julien going down and taking Castro away from the outfield and I'll add Lewis and his injuries. The names may change from year to year but these things happen every single year. They can't be predicted individually but you can etch them in stone that they will happen and because they do you need more than 9 guys. Margot has always been fated to face more right handers than left handers because of these things. That's why commiting two players to one spot matters... that's why committing 6 players to 3 spots matters. Because that second player (Margot) that short sider who is rostered just so you got someone to face that 25% is going to face that 75% more often out of necessity which you have just accurately pointed out. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  16. Riverbrian
    This reveals another potential problem that I don't like one bit. With the strategy to platoon and protect your young left handed hitters heavily currently in place. If you shed Farmer and Margot from the roster. Someone has to fill those spots to keep protecting the left handed hitter and Martin would probably become that guy. I know there are many that don't think Martin will amount to anything. I don't know if he will or he won't but if you bring him to the major leagues as young hitter and short side him... You will guarantee that he won't amount to anything.
  17. Riverbrian
    JD... You are a smart guy. You have my respect. Don't take this the wrong way... but I won't go into a zero sum discussion on this. You know we are talking about percentages of advantage on both sides of the plate. Please don't "No Chance" this discussion. Even if I believed that Wallner would have a lower percentage against left handed pitchers than Margot does against right handed pitchers. How much lower are we talking about? Is it low enough to make up for 75% to 25%? Are you not giving whatever advantage you gain right back when Margot faces more right handed pitching than left handed pitching? Why do Margot and Farmer face more right handed pitching then left handed pitching?
  18. Riverbrian
    I can read the standings. The Twins are doing very well offensively.
  19. Riverbrian
    Schrodinger's Cat Place Wallner in a box marked left handed pitchers. Close the lid and carry on with the season. You won't know if Wallner is alive or dead? One thing is for sure though. Wallner won't be sitting on the window ledge watching birds at the bird feeder or coughing up hairballs on the brand new carpet because he's in the box with the lid shut.
  20. Riverbrian
    That is true Wallner/Castro, Julien/Farmer, Kirilloff/Margot was the original plan coming out of the off-season in my estimation. The team was certainly designed for Wallner/Margot and here they are both on the roster for two days. My Constant Long Term issue is: I don't advocate committing 6 spots to platooning. That's 6 roster spots used up to attempt something that will be blown apart the minute injury or ineffectiveness starts taking root. You have to roster lesser players because 3 of those 6 roster spots are used on players who struggle against 75% of pitching. We are giving up more than what we get because they are facing more right handers. My recent question raised in this post spurred on by three absolutely crushed baseballs in two days of work. A. Would we better off with a left handed hitter hitting well against 75% of the league and struggling against 25%. That ends up playing more because of the 75%. B. Would we better off with a right handed hitter hitting well against 25% of the league and struggling against 75% of the league who ends up facing the 75% more often. I choose A.
  21. Riverbrian
    I apologize for all of the Wallner/Margot talk I sent into this thread. Don't get me wrong. The Twins offense has been fantastic lately and the Wallner/Margot talk makes it sound like I think we are drowning unless changes are made. The offense has been great. My thought are bottom of the 26 man roster thoughts.
  22. Riverbrian
    1. If they release him 2. No one claims him 3. He doesn't declare free agency seeking a major league job and accepts assignment to St. Paul. I don't see 1 happening at least not yet. And 3 won't happen at all. 2 will certainly happen if 1 happens. I'm sorry... I didn't mean for math to be a part of this post. No they can't was the simple answer.
  23. Riverbrian
    I spend my days hoping for a roster crunch. 13 guys who can play is always what I want to see. If the Roster crunch comes. You always pull from the bottom. You can't have a roster crunch if the bottom is allowed to remain.
  24. Riverbrian
    I used 80 AB's because that was how many AB's Kepler got in June and Kepler didn't start against left handers. Yes... Based on what Margot has done vs. left handers in the month of June... You make a solid point. In order to protect Wallner against left handers that comprise 25% of the pitches thrown. You have to roster a player who struggles to hit 75% of the pitching and in the end faces more right handers because of the 3 to 1 disparity. I'll take the small percentage hit for the larger percentage gain in this apple and orange choice between two players. That is of course assuming that Wallner would continue to be a larger percentage gain which isn't for sure because it's only been two games and also assuming that Wallner would continue to be a small percentage hit which also isn't for sure because Wallner or anyone can improve against left handers with exposure.
  25. Riverbrian
    I recognize Margot's recent OPS. I also recognize that the time frame you've chosen... has required over the top numbers against left handers to produce that OPS. Since June 1 Against RH: 45 PA's - .220 BA - .606 OPS Against LH: 35 PA's - .367 BA - 1.062 OPS He is still facing more right handers than left handers. Wallner would play more because of the 75% right handers. I agree with you that I look forward to the best of both. But... Right Now... If I had to choose using hindsight in all the advantages that hindsight gives you. Those exit Velo's made my decision. My original post was just a thought exercise and right now I'm thinking about swapping out another hitter in St. Paul that was as hot as Wallner and Lee in June. How can we work Severino into the lineup at the expense of Farmer?
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