Cody Pirkl

Edouard Julien has followed the path of several other young players who appeared to break out in 2023. In other words, he's been a massive disappointment in 2024. As he continues to struggle, could he be running out of time? Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports Edouard Julien burst onto the scene last season, with a plate approach that made him a lock as a future core piece of the lineup. His elite eye at the plate was complemented by enough power to make pitchers pay when he was ahead in the count. So far in 2024, that approach isn’t working, and he’s been one of the least productive regulars in the team's inconsistent lineup. On the season, Julien is slashing .199/.302/.372, and he’s struck out nearly 35% of the time. His numbers don’t even tell the story of how badly he’s struggled recently, as he’s slashing .167/.225/.183 in May, with a strikeout rate closer to 40%. He’s now a below-average hitter on the season, and at least for Sunday’s game against the Rangers, has finally been removed from the leadoff spot. Julien’s plate approach may have been more of a highwire act than initially believed, as several plate discipline numbers have slightly regressed. He’s chasing about 3% more than he did in 2023 and swinging at pitches in the zone slightly less. The result has been a complete disaster. So far this season, there has been no challenger for his job at second base for the big-league club, but that’s about to change. At long last, Brooks Lee has begun a rehab assignment, after a back injury delayed the start of his season. After flashing the skills that made him a top prospect in spring training, he’s gotten off to a hot start. In his first five games, Lee has posted an OPS over 1.000. These numbers don’t have much objective meaning, as they come from the low levels of the minor leagues. Still, they’re a good reminder that Lee would have almost certainly been on the Twins roster already if healthy and will be pushing them to make the addition shortly. The question is where Lee fits. Royce Lewis will likely retake third base, and Carlos Correa occupies Lee’s natural position at shortstop. Considering how the season has gone offensively for Julien and Kyle Farmer at second base, if Lee shows that he’s healthy, the Twins may have an obvious decision to make in the coming weeks. It’s a disappointing conversation to have regarding Julien, who looked locked into the top of the Twins lineup for years to come just a month or two ago. If the swap is indeed made for Lee at some point, we have to hope that a demotion to St. Paul leads to an opportunity to stabilize his approach and return quickly, rather than sinking further into the abyss, as we’ve seen from Matt Wallner. We’re reaching the point of the season where it’s time to shake up the unproductive parts of the roster. Last year, Julien was one of the replacements who led the Twins to their dominant second half. This year, he could be one of the ones getting replaced. Should the Twins be quick to make the Julien-for-Lee swap when the latter is ready to go? View full article

It will be hard to match the wave of prospects who helped save the 2023 Twins season, but they still have a few options waiting in the wings. It’s becoming more apparent by the day that the next call-up should be DaShawn Keirsey Jr. Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily DaShawn Keirsey Jr. isn’t completely lacking in prospect pedigree, as a former 4th-round pick in 2018, but he's been overshadowed by the several other outfield prospects the Twins have drafted since then. As some of those former prospects struggle at the MLB level while Keirsey flourishes in St. Paul, he should get an opportunity soon. Keirsey Jr. gained a reputation as a strong center fielder throughout his minor-league career, and while the offense never popped, he hit enough to continue to advance through the ranks. Last year was the first season in which he posted an OPS above .800 at any level, when he did so in Double-A. He earned a promotion to the Saints down the stretch, where he performed admirably to finish the season. The Twins took a risk, leaving him unprotected in the Rule 5 draft. Some of the 29 other teams who declined to make a claim are likely regretting it now. As Keirsey Jr. approaches 200 plate appearances on the season, he’s slashing .296/.392/.515, with six homers and 14 stolen bases. Such a small sample can only change a team’s perception of a player so much, but Keirsey Jr. couldn’t be doing more to prove that he’s worthy of a shot. This isn’t just a case of a player performing well in Triple-A. The Twins would greatly benefit from even a percentage of the performance Keirsey Jr. has put up for the Saints. Even with Byron Buxton back in the center-field mix, we still see Willi Castro and Manny Margot playing up the middle far too often. It’s hard to argue that this wouldn't be an immediate upgrade. The outfield defense isn’t good enough on days when Buxton is on the bench or acting as the DH. This promotion would fix that. Keirsey Jr. has several paths onto the MLB roster, but unfortunately, the most obvious continues to become more apparent by the day. Swapping out left-handed bats and demoting Alex Kirilloff to the Saints makes too much sense. The former top prospect has a .644 OPS on the season and a .422 OPS in May. Not only has Kirilloff struggled to contribute to the lineup, but he appears to be only a last-resort option to play first base and has been part of the defensive struggles in left field. Unless Kirilloff comes around quickly, Keirsey Jr. would be an immediate upgrade. The defense is unquestionably better, and the worst-case scenario likely isn’t worse than what they’ve been getting. Keirsey Jr. would even add an element of speed on the bases, with multiple 30-steal seasons on his minor-league resume. The circumstances are too perfect. DaShawn Keirsey Jr. has been playing the best baseball of his career for over a year now, and the Twins need a change. It’s time to reward a prospect who has worked through the minor leagues for six years while helping themselves. View full article

Since the Minnesota Twins' winning streak started, the only hole in their roster has been the low-leverage relievers. When asked to get outs of any significance, the lesser lights in the bullpen have scuffled. What options do the Twins have in-house to address that issue? Image courtesy of Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports We’re nearing the point of the season when struggling players are likely running low on time to get back on track. As their low-leverage relievers have cost them games in ugly fashion several times in the last few weeks, it may be time to take inventory of the Twins organization and see who could get some fresh looks. Jorge Alcalá We’ve seen plenty of Alcalá this season, though some argue it hasn’t been enough. The 28-year-old has a 3.27 ERA in eight appearances, though it’s worth noting that all of the runs he’s allowed came in one outing in which he threw nearly 50 pitches. He was demoted to Triple-A shortly after that, and is waiting in St. Paul for his next shot. Promoting Alcalá when he’s eligible and dropping him into the lowest-leverage spot would be an upgrade. Alcalá has been asked to pitch multiple innings repeatedly, while some veteran relievers on the roster can’t be trusted to find three outs before they allow three runs. We’re reaching a point where even the Twins, who clearly don’t think much of him, may have to admit that his raw stuff alone makes him a better option for low to mid-leverage innings than what they’ve been getting recently. Josh Winder Winder is on the comeback trail from yet another shoulder injury, but should become available to be called up relatively soon after pitching twice for the Saints. He may not have an enticing track record, but Winder looked like a different pitcher at the end of 2023. Winder’s starting career partially flamed out because of injury, but his four-seam fastball was another limiting factor. The pitch was one of the worst in all of baseball, and by season’s end, Winder scrapped it for a sinker. The new pitch allowed a -1-degree launch angle in a limited sample, as opposing hitters couldn’t do anything but spike batted balls into the ground. Paired with what was still a dominant slider/changeup combo, Winder could surprise fans who have given up on him with his new repertoire. Diego Castillo Castillo has been a high-leverage reliever at points of his career, but fell on hard times in 2023 as his velocity fell to a career-low 94.2 miles per hour on the fastball. The walk rate exploded, as did the home-run rate (in a small sample), allowing the Twins to bring him in on a minor-league deal. In 15 innings with St. Paul, Castillo has struck out over 28% of the hitters he’s faced. He’s still walked over 10% of opposing hitters, but he’s back to limiting homers in hitter-friendly CHS field and currently sports a 1.20 ERA. Another critical factor is Castillo's two remaining options, meaning that if he were added to the 40-man roster and brought up to the parent club, he could still go back to St. Paul as needed throughout the season. His fastball has reached as high as 96.5 MPH in the early going, and there’s a chance, even at 30 years old, that Castillo has something valuable left in the tank. Honorable Mentions Jordan Balazovic: Near 35% K rate, 11.4% BB rate, and has yet to allow a homer in 16 innings. The Twins could regain some trust in their former top prospect at some point this season, but he’ll have to stick on the MLB roster or be put on waivers if promoted, as he’s out of options. Ryan Jensen: The Twins claimed him, hoping to harness the raw stuff and cut down the walks. They’re 1 for 2, as he’s struck out over 35% of opposing hitters while walking over 16%. He also has two options remaining. Is the ceiling enticing enough to give him a look at the MLB level, understanding that it might be a temporary arrangement that requires backfilling within a week or two? Ronny Henriquez: Home run problems have popped back up, but Henriquez has posted solid strikeout and walk numbers. Formerly a legitimate pitching prospect, Henriquez is already on the 40-man and can be optioned, as we saw once earlier this season. The Twins may lack robust options to fill the struggling parts of the bullpen, but they have many contenders who aren’t without upside. Do any of these names stand out as deserving of the first shot? Is there someone else in the system who should be given an opportunity? Let us know below! View full article

Alex Kirilloff was one of the few bright spots in the lineup in the early weeks of the season, as the Twins struggled. However, as the team has looked more competitive, Kirilloff has completely disappeared. Is this worth worrying about? Image courtesy of Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports We’ve seen plenty of ups and downs in Alex Kirilloff's career. Typically, they've been brief highs, followed by long periods of lows that are eventually attributed to injury. As we watch another prolonged slump, it’s fair to wonder whether he’s dealing with more physical issues, or if this is a simpler, skill-driven dry spell. Kirilloff was slashing .370/.419/.667 through Apr. 8. The hope was that he was finally healthy and that his prospect pedigree was finally paying off. The Twins revived their season shortly after that, with Kirilloff at the top of the lineup and sometimes leading off. As the team has come back to life, however, Kirilloff has fallen flat. Since his third consecutive game with a triple, he’s slashing .167/.228/.306 in 79 plate appearances. We’ve seen from Kirilloff that, mainly when his wrist is the culprit for his struggles, regardless of the pitch type or location, he rolls over grounders repeatedly. Since May 8, Kirilloff has had a 44% ground ball rate and has been pulling the ball 40% of the time. These percentages are very similar to previous periods right before he was put on the IL, such as in 2022, but it’s worth noting that he was hitting more ground balls during his hot streak this season, too. Looking at the way his batted-ball profile has changed over the last month, weak pop-ups have been as much of a problem as rollers to second base. He's continued to hit the ball in that range just north of 30 degrees pretty consistently; it just hasn't been quite hard enough to generate damage. As we know, success in MLB is a product of adjustments. Thus, it's always fleeting, but can also be quickly recaptured. It’s possible Kirilloff’s hot streak caused opposing pitchers to make one, and now it’s Kirilloff’s job to adjust back. This is obviously a more favorable outcome than yet another injury on the path of Kirilloff’s disrupted career. The hope is that, although it’s not good that Kirilloff has struggled for the better part of a month, an injury should have surfaced by now if that were the culprit. Regardless of the reason, hopefully, Kirilloff can right the ship soon. Several players who shined during the 12-game winning streak, such as Carlos Santana and Edouard Julien, have cooled back off. May is arguably the most difficult month of the Twins season. A healthy and productive Alex Kirilloff from the left side of the plate would go a long way in a Twins lineup that’s still missing Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis. Is it worth being concerned about Kirilloff, either regarding an injury or just traditional struggles? Can he still be relied upon as a middle-of-the-order hitter in this lineup? Let us know below! View full article

The one shining positive of Royce Lewis's immediate injury on Opening Day was the opportunity it created. So far, José Miranda has seized that opportunity. Can he continue to do so? Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports At the end of the 2022 season, José Miranda looked like a potential core piece of the Twins lineup. He was treated as such in early 2023, before it all fell apart. We wondered whether Miranda’s strong rookie season was just a flash in the pan, or if his shoulder injury was entirely to blame for the poor performance. So far, in 2024, it looks like the latter. Miranda looks like the same hitter he’s always been. He swings at everything, resulting in very few walks or strikeouts. He’s been a complement to a Twins lineup full of hitters who like to draw out at-bats and wait out pitchers. He looks to do nothing but drive the baseball, and that’s exactly what he’s done so far in 2024. With a triple slash line of .315/.339/.519, he’s been one of the many reasons the Twins have turned their season around in such a hurry Miranda’s Statcast page doesn’t jump out regarding traditional measures such as average exit velocity, expected slugging, weighted on-base, etc. Still, it’s worth noting that this was similarly true in 2022 when he broke out. It's why folks were so quick to worry that he was a mirage, once 2023 went awry. He may take a unique path to success at the plate, but aside from 2023, when he was injured, he seems to keep finding his way there. There also might be a bit more to see than the Savant sliders suggest. Our own Matthew Trueblood has played with batted-ball data to focus on the average exit velocity for each hitter on balls hit between 10 and 35 degrees upward (where most hits, and especially extra-base hits, happen), and then weighted that according to the frequency with which they actually produce those line drives and fly balls. The league's average weighted sweet spot exit velocity (wSSEV) is around 86.0 miles per hour. Miranda's was at 88 in 2022, then cratered to under 83 in 2023. In his very limited 2024 sample, it's 90.4. That improvement, in turn, stems partially from his much-improved contact skills within the strike zone. He might not have cut down much on his swing rate, but when he does swing, he connects at a much higher rate than he used to--especially within the strike zone. Perhaps because he's locking in on his pitch better, too, Miranda has become a much more lift-and-pull hitter. That's the type of batted ball the Twins are always coaching their guys to chase, and it's why the team takes a very patient overall approach; it's usually hard to get the bat head out and pull fly balls without guessing and sitting on a pitch. Miranda, though, is maintaining his free-swinging ways while still morphing into a powerful dead-pull hitter who can get some air under the ball. Equally impressive is Miranda’s defense. It seemed like the Twins had moved on from the idea of him being a usable third baseman. By Outs Above Average, which measures his range, he grades in the 16th percentile with -4 OAA. By Defensive Runs Saved, though, he’s completely neutral. He’s made the plays he’s supposed to and even a few that were far from routine. Some were surprised to learn that the Twins decided to keep Miranda on the roster over the more versatile Austin Martin this week, but the Twins have been proven correct in their choice. Miranda is a legitimate option at third base and has been an impact bat every time his name has been written into the lineup. Miranda has had a resurgence in 2024, and still has a lot of time to cement himself as a piece of this roster before Lewis returns. Even if, at that point, he’s rarely an option at third base, it would simply be impossible not to find him playing time if he continues to swing it the way he has so far. Were we right all along about José Miranda? Is he a legitimate future piece of the Twins lineup who suffered from poor health in 2023? So far, in 2024, that appears to be the case. View full article

To begin his 2024 season, Chris Paddack has experienced some extreme highs and lows. Now that we have a handful of starts to break down, what are we seeing from the 2024 version of the Minnesota Twins starter? Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Chris Paddack’s first start of the season saw little slider usage. The stuff looked intact, but the question of whether the Twins could add a pitch to take him to the next level remained. We’ve had three starts since then, and the results and usage patterns are all over the place. Briefly, there was at least a hopeful correlation to draw from Paddack’s pitch mix. In his second start against a formidable Dodgers lineup, Paddack was inefficient but solid, given the circumstances. The new slider was his second-most used pitch, as he allowed just two runs across 4 2/3 innings and struck out five. His third start was a bit of a disaster, as he allowed nine earned runs to the Orioles in 5 1/3 innings. The path forward at that point seemed clear, as he failed against a similarly lethal lineup on a night when he dropped his slider usage from 26% (against the Dodgers) to just 10%. Perhaps the slider was the difference-maker. Paddack and the Twins clearly didn’t feel that was the case. The Chicago White Sox are as big of a step down in the opposing lineup as you’ll find, but Paddack dropped his slider usage down to 9% and posted one of the best outings of his entire career this week. He rode his usual pitch mix, including his fastball, changeup, and curveball, for seven innings of scoreless ball with 10 strikeouts. Four starts aren’t enough to stabilize Paddack’s pitch mix tendencies, but what have we learned? Paddack’s wariness of using his slider is probably warranted. The pitch has allowed a .375 batting average and a 1.125 slugging percentage. It may be his second-best whiff pitch, but it’s allowing a ridiculous average exit velocity of 96.3 mph. It’s responsible for two of the four homers Paddack has allowed, despite being thrown just 13% of the time. It’s still a work in progress, and we probably won’t see Paddack spike the usage of it any time soon. Paddack’s changeup has yet to round back into form. The pitch has been his best weapon across his career, but so far, it has just a 20.4% whiff rate. It’s also responsible for the other two homers he’s allowed, and has arguably been his second-worst offering as his go-to offspeed pitch, which has been thrown over 30% of the time. The velocity on the fastball has stabilized at 94.3 mph, a great sign that Paddack is fully healthy and searching for his feel and consistency at this point, rather than settling into any particular pitch patterns. Nobody will weigh a gem against the White Sox too heavily, but hopefully, it was a turning point for Paddack. His fastball was as dominant as it has ever been, and the changeup drew a swing and miss one-third of the time on Monday. Paddack’s recent dominant start contained shades of his previous peak in San Diego, rather than a new version we hope to see slinging a dominant slider. At this point, Paddack maintaining his stuff and getting his feel back has to be considered a win, no matter what lineup he shined against. As for us seeing the version of Chris Paddack the Twins were hoping for when they acquired him, the jury is still out. Saturday night, Paddack will make his fifth start of the season. How do you think he'll perform against the Angels? What would you like to see from his pitch mix? View full article

Cole Sands is the most recent in a line of former starting pitching prospects to find their footing in the Twins' bullpen. He’s been nothing short of dominant in 2024, but in a very weird way. Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports As a former fifth-round pick, Cole Sands never had an elite pedigree as a prospect. His fastball was in the low 90s, but he limited walks and he had a plus breaking ball. The most obvious path for Sands in a relief role was to lean on his breaking ball, as we’ve seen with players like Griffin Jax. Sands is finding his success in a much different way. The name of the game when it comes to relievers is typically to simplify their arsenal and focus on what they do best. Instead, as Cole Sands transitioned to a reliever, his pitch mix got more diverse. He introduced a splitter last year, throwing more than the breaking ball. In 2024, his most used pitch is a 90 mph cutter. The cutter has drawn whiffs over 30% of the time, allowing an exit velocity of just 78 mph. Sands throws it just a touch more than his four-seamer, which has climbed up near 95 mph on average. That extra tick surely helps, but it’s fair to wonder whether the pitch also benefits from a more diverse arsenal to complement it. He has yet to allow a hit on the pitch. The splitter is mainly used against left-handed hitters and has a 42.9% whiff rate. Between this and the cutter, Sands suddenly has two plus pitches to attack hitters with, not to mention the expected boost in velocity. Sustaining this, though, will depend on whether Sands can improve on the breaking ball, his calling card as a prospect. The pitch has yet to draw a single swing and miss in 2024. The question to consider at this point isn’t just whether Sands can continue with his performance; it’s what to do with him if it does. If he’s armed with a repertoire that includes a usable cutter, splitter, and curveball, he may be deserving of a chance to stretch back into a starting role and see what happens. There’s room in the Saints' rotation, and the Twins could certainly use the depth. Is this to say that Cole Sands has established himself as a staple of their pitching staff? Not necessarily. The sample size is still tiny, and relievers are fickle. What we’ve seen so far suggests that he’s a different pitcher than the one the Twins drafted, or even the one we all watched just last year. Those who thought Cole Sands could succeed were probably picturing him doing it differently. Regardless of the expectations, Sands has been convincingly good. He appears to be taking the leap that some expected he could in recent years; he’s just doing it in a weird way. View full article

They did try a sign and trade. On the Patreon, they noted the Twins believed if they non tendered him that he would have been the best shortstop on the FA market. Now Willi Castro is the backup SS. That in itself is a misjudgement of his value. You can choose to believe whatever you'd like, but there are multiple arguments based on the free agent market and how they've used him this year that says they misjudged his value.

Based solely on the fact that Farmer isn't the backup SS, that $6.3m was an overpay without even considering his performance so far. Farmer was surprised he was brought back, and if you're a Gleeman & the Geek listener, Twins sources themselves admitted that they misjudged that decision. Is that the main issue with the team right now? No, but it's hurting them.

I disagree. Rotation-even if Paddack and Varland turn things around, they're going to need depth to make it through the season. We knew that before they were getting shelled every 5th day. Woods Richardson is the only somewhat meaningful depth they have. That's going to cost them at some point. 1B/DH - even if Santana plays to the level he did last season, he's not the caliber of hitter we hoped they'd add this winter. Another legit bat would have helped soften the blow of the injuries to players we knew had injury histories. Farmer - This was always a questionable decision. Farmer himself was surprised by it. Even if he isn't a total disaster the rest of the year as he has been, that salary is an overpay for a team that cut payroll. There's literally no arguing that point. People can cite his leadership all they want. He's a spot starter vs lefties, and apparently isn't even the backup at SS anymore. They probably could have non tendered him and brought him back for $2-3m. I also don't believe setting a cutoff for analysis out 15 games further is any less arbitrary than doing it right now. There's no magical deadline where it's appropriate to form opinions.

I think we've seen enough the last few years to confidently say they're at least 2-3 months away from moving on from Santana. He could go hitless for the rest of the season and likely still be on the roster in July. That's just how they operate. Whether it's them not wanting to admit that they made a bad decision, or having way too much faith in veteran player, they don't cut the cord. See Joey Gallo.

The Minnesota Twins are treading water with their current health situation, and they’re trying to stay afloat until critical players return. Three decisions the team made this winter are already making this task more difficult. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports With several star players out already, the Twins' depth is immediately being tested. Unlike in previous years (when insulating the roster was a priority), however, the payroll situation left the team exposed. Three choices they made, in particular, are coming back to haunt them now. Letting It Ride with the Rotation In 2023, the Twins opened the season with Bailey Ober and Louie Varland in Triple-A as depth arms. It wasn’t long until they were both needed, and each wound up carrying a substantial workload, even though the Twins had one of the healthier rotations in baseball. This year, they did the opposite. Their only starting pitching depth was Simeon Woods Richardson and Brent Headrick in St. Paul, with Varland opening the season in the rotation. Headrick is currently on the IL, and Varland is getting hammered in MLB so far. Several options were available for a reasonable price, but the Twins put a hard stop on spending. It’s possible Varland could iron out his issues in the minor leagues, but regardless of performance, he will get a lot more run in the MLB rotation. Through 14 innings, he has a 3.21 HR/9 and an 8.36 ERA. The Twins did, of course, acquire Anthony DeSclafani in the Jorge Polanco trade in late January. They were rolling the dice on his elbow, knowing that an injury had shortened his 2023 season and that he wasn't entirely out of the woods in terms of needing surgery. Indeed, he did, and he's now out for the season. Though it was necessitated by their ownership-enforced financial constraints, the gamble on DeSclafani turned out to be a calamitous one. Going Cheap at 1B/DH Many Twins fans hoped for another high-upside bat this winter, but it wasn’t in the cards. Instead, 38-year-old Carlos Santana was brought in for his sure-handed defense and discerning eye at the plate. He was immediately considered an everyday player, despite his pedestrian .724 OPS from the left side in 2023. In 2024, fans are begging for pedestrian output from the veteran first baseman. Santana has been one of the worst hitters in baseball. At his age, many are already starting to wonder if the Twins caught him at the end of the road. There are no signs of his once-elite plate discipline, and he’s striking out more than ever. His slash line of .135/.224/.154 is good for an 11 wRC+. With the injury situation, the Twins have no choice but to write his name into the lineup every day. The front office may have targeted Santana regardless of payroll, with him having spent years in Cleveland and having veteran status. Their choice not to (or inability to) aim higher has already hurt the team, as Santana has been the least valuable player on the roster with a -0.4 fWAR. The payroll situation and his status as a veteran will almost surely afford him extra time on the roster, as we’ve seen so often. Tendering Kyle Farmer Farmer had a solid 2023 with the Twins, but his $6.3 million projected salary seemed like an easy non-tender situation, so much so that Farmer himself was surprised when the Twins brought him back. That decision has looked worse and worse ever since. The Twins went on to massively cut payroll, making that dollar amount a real headscratcher for a 33-year-old weak-side platoon player. That money could have been much better spent on an arm to push Varland into a depth role or put toward first base to find a better option than Santana. The case could be made that we’re lucky to have him, now that he’s needed on a near-everyday basis, but Farmer has been right there with Santana as one of the least valuable players on the roster, despite not seeing the field nearly as often. The cherry on top of the Farmer situation is that, with Correa out, he doesn’t even appear to be the primary shortstop. His price tag becomes even more questionable if he’s mostly an option at non-premium positions. The amount of money is small enough that it shouldn’t be an issue, but the Twins made it one with their payroll slashing. To a degree, the Twins were destined to struggle, given the number of injuries that have already occurred this season. While acknowledging this, it’s fair to note that decisions made along the way set them up for total catastrophe if a handful of players went down. It seems that the payroll situation made the bitter 2022 season a distant memory, and now all the Twins can do is hope the season isn’t already lost when their star players return. View full article

It's not about performance, it's about all of the players being used in a way that makes the most sense.

The Twins' offense has been hard to watch so far in 2024, and nothing will fix it other than the lineup making more contact and hitting with runners in scoring position. There is one roster change the Twins can consider for help. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports The Twins are not shy about preferring platoon advantages, and they’ve built their team to include several players that help them set these matchups. A wrench was thrown into the plans when Royce Lewis was immediately injured, and the Twins were left with few options to replace him. So far, it appears they’ve chosen the wrong one. The Twins' choice to call up Austin Martin was perfectly understandable. He’s a versatile, athletic, right-handed hitter whose skillset should complement much of the Twins lineup. He's earned a shot at the MLB level. While he couldn’t play third base to replace Lewis, Kyle Farmer could and Martin could find himself platooning with Julien at second base. We could look back in a few years and see that Martin has become a solid contributor to the team, but the way the roster is currently utilized suggests the time may not be suitable for him to make his debut. For starters, Martin’s usage isn’t doing him any favors. He’s made one start in center field with three plate appearances. Not only is he not playing every day, but he’s just a “break glass in case of emergency” player. He appears to be the number one option for pinch-running and the last option when it comes to an opportunity at the plate. This was immediately obvious when Martin pinch-ran against the Royals and was pinch-hit for by Manny Margot in his first game. The Twins burned a roster spot to replace Martin with another right-handed, high-contact hitter. His one start in which Brady Singer shut out the Twins was his one chance to show his skills at the plate. Speaking of Manny Margot, the Twins' usage of him to begin the season has been questionable. He has yet to start a game, regardless of the handedness of the pitcher the Twins face. These opportunities so far have gone to Castro and Martin. Instead, Margot, a career .255/.308/.384 hitter, has pinch-hit in five of the Twins' six games to begin the season. Even though Margot posted a .665 OPS against left-handed pitching in 2023, these are the matchups he should be put in. The problem is that they’re solely coming off the bench when the “pinch-hit tax” comes into play. Even if Margot can perform at his career .760 OPS level against southpaws in these spots, he’s not exactly the caliber of hitter that will strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers. Also worth noting is that some of these substitutions happen early enough that Margot gets at least one more plate appearance, often against a high-leverage right-handed reliever. So what other choice do the Twins have? Belief in Jose Miranda may be at an all-time low, but he’s a better roster fit for the current situation, and he’s showing flashes so far in St. Paul. Not only is he looking strong at the plate with exit velocities to match, but he’s begun playing third base again. It was assumed that the Twins didn’t see him as an option at the hot corner anymore, but perhaps that’s not the case. Margot would then become one of the primary outfielders with a left-handed pitcher on the mound, a role that would set him up for more success than seeing 100% of his plate appearances off the bench. While it would be a bummer for Martin to go back down, he would at least return to playing every day until he’s needed for a more regular role. It may be picking nits when the current offensive struggles are apparent, but there’s too much redundancy on the Twins bench. It’s not setting up the players involved for success and isn’t doing anything to help the Twins offensively. It may already be time to admit that the initial response to the Lewis injury needs to be adjusted, and Jose Miranda may be just the lever the Twins need to pull. View full article

Chris Paddack made his 2024 debut on Wednesday, in an eventual Twins win. Although this was his first start of the season, it’s worth exploring some trends and how they may inform his future in the rotation. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson - USA TODAY Sports Chris Paddack was far from sharp in his first big-league start since undergoing a second Tommy John surgery in 2022. In four innings, he allowed six hits and walked two. His two earned runs were a testament to how well he navigated the trouble he was constantly in and gave the Twins a chance to win, though. Aside from his final line, there were a few critical observations for the rest of Paddack’s 2024 season. Paddack averaged 94.3 mph on the fastball on Wednesday, up significantly from the 93 we saw in his brief 2022 debut with the Twins. Paddack was a fire-breathing reliever in his return to the mound in 2023, averaging 95.5 mph. Lower velocity was expected as he stretched back out, but the question was whether he could find the velocity he had before his second Tommy John. So far, so good, as Wednesday’s number is right in line with some of the best seasons of Paddack’s career. Also encouraging was Paddack’s ability to reach back for more when he needed it. He topped out at 96.1 on the fastball and found a few extra ticks whenever he was in trouble. It seems the raw stuff should be all the way back; it’s just a matter of how well he can sustain it over the course of the season. Aside from Paddack’s raw stuff, how he deployed it was also interesting. When the Twins acquired Paddack, their confidence in his ability to add a slider to his repertoire was a big topic. While he barely had a chance to throw it in 2022 before he got injured, it looked like an effective pitch. This spring, it was his major focus. On Wednesday, the slider was essentially a show-me pitch. He threw it just six times and didn’t generate any whiffs on it. Instead, he leaned on his fastball and changeup mix, with the occasional curveball--just as he did with the Padres before the trade. It was an effective formula at times, but it limited his ceiling. Paddack’s innings will likely be capped this season, so getting quality when he’s on the mound will be important. As a right-handed pitcher who’s held lefties to a .688 OPS in his career, getting righties out is the obvious way for him to take the next step. It’s likely what the Twins had in mind when they acquired him, and hopefully, the plan is to see that slider usage increase to neutralize same-handed hitters. Paddack’s first start of the season was similar to Louie Varland’s. He slightly missed his spots and racked up a high pitch count, often getting outs only once the string was all the way out. As a name on the relatively short list of pitchers to return from two Tommy John surgeries, Paddack showed flashes to be excited about. While rocky, Paddack’s first start of 2024 can be considered a success. The question now is where he goes from here. Perhaps his control and command can be as pinpoint as they were prior to his barrage of health-related setbacks. The Twins could improve his slider and make it a legitimate weapon. Either of these developments would be massive. Where does Paddack go from here? View full article