CDog
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Everything posted by CDog
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I'm not usually one to try to "read into" moves, but I must say my first reaction to this was "Uh oh...Mauer's thumb is worse than originally thought"...or "Morneau tweaked something." I still don't see them wanting to call up Parmalee to sit much. He plays RF, 1B or could DH. Revere has been playing RF and also falls into the "if he stays he plays." 1B has been Mauer and Morneau almost entirely since Parmalee went down. DH has been mostly Doumit and Mauer. Mauer out would leave Doumit catching more and a spot Parmalee can play needing a fill. Hmmmmm.
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You likely know this, but some may not...I think most would agree that errors alone is a bit of a broadsword tool when a scalpel is more appropriate, but I think most agree that the more advanced defensive stats are very volatile without quite large sample sizes (like full seasons or even more). Using them still might be better than errors, but one needs to be careful with quarter-season-sized data.
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When so much of the natural world falls into bell-shaped patterns, this thread illustrates a bit of human nature that goes contrary to that. If we think of the edges as those who are VERY quick to assign blame while being very slow to give credit against those who are VERY quick to give credit and slow to assign blame, there is obviously a spectrum between those two poles. Yet I don't think the majority fall into the middle so much as people tend to the edges. Possibly, I suppose, it's more a matter of those near the extremes are the ones we hear more or notice more because of their extremity. OK...back to the topic at hand if I can figure out how to turn off the nerd switch.
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Definitely shouldn't have been in the washed up list, but speaking of distorted concepts of Lohse...this is one of those things that somehow has taken life with little basis in fact that he somehow became much better after the Twins. He's been remarkably similar as an ex-Twin as he was as a Twin.
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And as long as I'm repeating myself, let me make it clear that I'm only revealing what I have gathered as the reason for it. Not only do I not have the information to know if it's the correct decision, but I likely wouldn't know what to do with the information if I had it. (As in, I saw precious little during spring training and don't have the expertise of a scout or coach at that level.)
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During spring training, Gardy mentioned not liking the way Revere played LF (and Revere made comments to the effect that he agreed). I don't recall if there were more details than that given (or what they were). Someone give my needle a bump...thanks.
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Now, that's not the actor Will Smith, right?
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This is a more general question than the thread, perhaps, but it keeps coming up here about how long it will take various people to get to the big leagues. Generally speaking, why do "we" care? Are some of you planning to stop being Twins fans in the next few years and don't want to miss the debut of Prospect X if it's outside that window? As long as the path isn't ridiculously long where you start to lose them to Rule 5 draft or they're not ready when they're out of options (both seem to be worries outside the scope of this discussion), shouldn't the concern be how good they can be when they do get to the big league team?
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Article: DRAFT DAY: Twins Myth #3448: Outfield Depth
CDog replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Or lucky.... -
Just to be That Guy, I've noticed a couple of claims here that Young carried the 2010 Twins to the playoffs. I know in another thread it was said that he did so "single-handedly." Young was an absolute beast in July '10, and his power (and the timing of the power, based on memory) was big in September. But he was brutal in August and after July he made outs just over 72% of the time he went to the plate. He had also gotten off to a somewhat slow start before a very good May and solid June. Meanwhile, Mauer did have a good start before a solid May and a poor-for-him-average-for everyone June, but then was enormous in July and August and about as good as Young after that (with the typical swap of OBP for power between them, but ending up around the same value as a hitter...something tells me Mauer might have been more valuable defensively, but that's just my feeling for now). He finished the year with a WAR of 5.5 (granted a step back from the monster '09, but a huge year nonetheless). Cuddyer was also big in July before being only average after that (but filling in for Morneau at first when there was absolutely no other option). Then, of course, Morneau was MVP-ish for his half season and Thome was a behemoth throughout the year in about half-time duty. So Young (at the plate) wasn't exactly the only guy that contributed at the plate. Carry on.
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1) Fairly sure major leauge baseball deals can't be re-worked. 2) I've said it before, but it sure is icky to me when people decide they're in charge of what other people should do with their money. 3) He has to buy something to make up for a path possibly heading to the Hall of Fame? Or the positive baseball history that's already done? (Three batting titles as a catcher, for instance.)
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What if baseball IS the cure for cancer? Hmmmmm??????
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SI.Com steroids story on former Twins' pitchers
CDog replied to Cris E's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Couple things... First, as for the anecdote of the Yankees treating Naulty more graciously, I read it as Joe Torre, and not an organizational thing. I also thought it was implied about one or more of the demons he was dealing with, which he had established he had kept hidden as much as possible. I didn't go back to read again to see if that's how it came off on a more thorough go-through. But yeah, I cringed a little to read that. Second, and sort of related, I can't imagine a very high percentage of the overwhelming majority who are released from a minor league team like the way it was done very much, regardless of the organization. My first feeling while reading some of those was similar to comments of "ugh" but it's just an ugly time that I'm sure is awful to most everyone involved for the last hundred+ years. Third, someone commented about the ENORMOUS change in Naulty and how that wasn't what the "word on the street" had been (as opposed to "it helps heal" or makes smaller improvements). I don't know, but my thought would be that possibly/probably Naulty went to extremes more than others with usage and that's why his body rejected the overwhelmingly large burden (tore is groin muscle right off the bone?!??!). But yeah...I was right in my comment early in the thread...the article really bummed me out in a lot of ways. Did folks read the article linked within the linked article about Serafini? He comes off...poorly. To me (copyright Ron Coomer). -
Almost exactly what I was coming to write. I only saw the first 4 innings, but at one point I know his first pitch strikes were 5 of 10. More than one 3-0 count, etc. That's the bad side, but as said, the flip side was that he recovered from those things well. His stuff looked plenty good, and he wasn't missing by as much as he was on the misses earlier in the year (first pitch excepted).
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That made my day.
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SI.Com steroids story on former Twins' pitchers
CDog replied to Cris E's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I have a feeling reading the linked article is really gonna bum me out. Here goes... -
Yes, I very selectively ignored alllllll the things you said about Mauer's baserunning that were outside of the one game you mentioned (although I did give the benefit of the doubt to add a second game). I also kindly and selectively didn't mention that almost anyone with sense knows that even full season's worth of defensive data can be mis-leading, and even more so for catchers, and let alone 200 innings. I also selectively didn't mention that "most observers" likely means "your own non-objective thoughts." And if it's super fun for you, we can keep going on the merry-go-round where you claim his quotes were ridiculous, I say that I read almost everything I could and didn't hear any that were ridiculous unless twisted by the reader/listener who wanted to hear something ridiculous and then you can say "nuh uh, they were ridiculous" and I can say....etc etc etc. Your attempts at analysis aren't so good, and then your bias begins to show and things get laughable. You imply that nearly everyone expects the negative outcome that you expect (despite that being an unlikely outcome even at it's "record breaking pace"). That example shows your unreasonable and slanted expectation and bias (fact-based). As does your unfounded implication that Mauer's choice would be to not play rather than play (opinion-based).
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I would guess I'm one of what you would call a "saber dude," although I wouldn't go that far. I can tell you that what I was thinking just before that was more in the form of hope, as it usually is. Hope that he'd get a good pitch to hit and he'd hit it on the screws. Being it was the Hammer, I hoped for something in the gap or over a fence. Before he'd finished his follow through I had uttered out loud (and scared my dogs) "*Expletive deleted* yes!" Point being, the impression that there isn't overlap between analytical thought, careful observation, and emotional investment isn't accurate in all cases. And a good "saber dude" knows that in any given at bat in any given situation, even 2 on and 2 out in the 9th in May at Target Field against a left-hander, that almost anything can happen. The numbers have little to do with any single event. It's baseball. It's amazing. That's why most of us watch. (I have thoughts on why the rest watch, but I'll keep them to myself...haha.)
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Article: Minnesota Twins Top Ten Prospects
CDog replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Pretty sure you have the wrong position for Arcia. Just an FYI for those reading that don't know. -
A two-day sample? Twice?..............I didn't read a single quote that was ridiculous when not taken out of context or twisted by a reader/listener...............Probably not one, but almost certainly many.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." -Neils Bohr
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Article: Finding A Home For Justin Morneau
CDog replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Is that the same Morneau who played 477 games over three consecutive seasons including a 163-games-played year? -
Yeah, I didn't catch the sarcasm font on that post. There's enough people who think things just like that in earnest that you can see where it might have gone "whoosh!" over a person's head!
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People who have implied it is not in this thread alone are, Curt, sbknudson, USAFChief, SirLoin, asmus_ndsu, and Boom Boom. And as I said earlier in the thread, I don't think they should move them. Rather strongly opposed, actually.
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Seems applicable here again...back in spring training, the word was that Revere didn't play LF as well as they had expected. Even Revere made the comment that certain things that he couldn't explain were going well for him in RF that weren't in LF. I don't recall what things they were referring to, and the few innings I was able to see of spring training certainly wasn't enough to know with my eye. Even had I seen more, it's likely the lifetime baseball people are seeing a lot more than I could. Not agreeing with something and taking the leap all the way to Gardy (or anyone else) deliberately sabotaging the team's chances to win is troubling to me.