bunsen82
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Everything posted by bunsen82
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Olivares seems to have the most juice so far for the rule 5 draft followed by Culpepper. Neither appears likely to stick in my opinion. I really it find it questionable, we still have Gasper, Kriedler, Outman, Fitzgerald, Julien, McCusker all on the 40 man currently. Even still most likely, those first 4 will be off as we have trades, signings or rule 5 draft picks ourselves. It is interesting Klein is the one the Twins were more worried about that anyone else. He was the semi surprise add.
- 48 replies
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- cj culpepper
- kyler fedko
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There is 3 ways to bring good players into your organization. Trade, signing and drafting. Lebron, Emerson, Lombard or Chowolsky would all be a top 3 prospect for the Twins right now. I am not sure you could get any player of their quality in a trade - most teams want to keep their elite players. The draft is also funky as in you never know when a team will go for a lower player to spread out their money. Currently it looks like we will get a really good player, and if we decide to underslot significantly we may be going for quantity. Although with our minor system we are lacking the elite prospects.
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The team last year with all the players tanked the season. They were a below average team with a winning percentage below .500 at the trade deadline. 4 bullpen Varland, Stewart, Jax and Duran- less $10 million salaries Fielders- Correa less net $23 million Stewart is a player that if healthy may be available in trade if the Twins want him. Jax is all over the place. Varland is a solid but unspectacular reliever. Correa right now as is, is probably only worth $15 million. The only true difference maker is Duran. With the fiasco with revenues due to lack of TV contracts, the Twins are at a disadvantage with salaries. So we were likely to trade at least Correa and one of the bullpen arms this year. Trade prospects and players, potential money for new players, a better rule 5 player, and the #3 pick which comes with more salary allotment- say what you will the organization is better off with the decision they made. This team as constructed and coached did not appear capable of winning it all.
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It’s a good outcome. For 2nd best odds you want a top 3 pick especially for the prospects in this draft. As of now it has 4 really good SS at the top of the draft. This is the highest pick the 2nd best odds has had. Yes I would have loved the first or second pick, but for the 4th worst record we effectively moved up in the draft. My guess is the front office is pleased with the outcome.
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80-82 wins is projected by Fangraphs. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings As to the end of the season, the team had semi quit. I don't anticipate to blow as many leads as we did last year, and we were generally playing with a minimum of 2 non competitive hitters in the lineup most days. Vasquez played a lot, and add in Gasper, Julien, Outman and Fitzgerald. I don't anticipate they will get nearly as many at bats this season.
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In a few hours we will find out the draft pick that the Twins get. However you want to call it, whether tanking the rest of the season, or just playing poor baseball and "earning" the 2nd highest odds in the draft - they should end up with a good draft pick. They had the 4th worst record so in reality if they can the 4th or better pick they will have maintained their slot if this was a normal draft. Lets see what the culmination of all the trades results in for Draft picks and potentially the max salary allotment for draft picks for 2026.
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Other sports writers and even writers here on Twinsdaily have stated they knew who the buyers were but were waiting for the information to be made public or approved. If you think this is false information then fine. If this is just a dig at Cody, seems par for the course with you. I sure you can't wait for me to make a post about the draft capital from the lottery from our tank like I plan to later tonight LOL. Edit: It does appear something was wrong in the initial reporting, most likely the ownership group, but for now we will just wait until it comes out. So a mea culpa from me. USAChief.
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The value of Jeffers on 1 year deal is somewhere between $10 to $15 million. If he performs really well, we have some options at the end of the year. If he performs as he has been, we may resign him, The players remaining on free agency or the cost to trade for a very good catcher is likely prohibitive. Best to just run with Jeffers and see what the year brings.
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I stand by they will continue try to put a decent product on the field and I wouldn't call it mediocre either. As constructed currently they are an 80 win team potentially. 2 more solid relievers, a good bat and they could compete especially if the hitters overall perform better than they have the last couple of years. I don't know if its the right philosophy or not. With tanking they got prospects, a decent pick in the rule 5 draft, and we will see which draft slot they get here this afternoon and some salary relief that can be used to get a few players. I still think they are ahead in the grand scheme of things as an organization - not necessarily for win totals for this year. Its what I thought they would do all along. They appear to be willing to play games based on the projections on draft is what it appears to me. To me they continue trying to put a good product on the field, while bolstering the minor leagues. We are still a tad light on the elite elite prospects - with Jenkins being our only one with questions on Tait and Rodriguez.
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I am ok with using some prospect capital for trade. I always felt we would need to use some just to get the big league team back to a competitive level. The minor league system will still be better than prior to the trade deadline selloff.
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I think he would be a fine addition. However - we know we need some relief pitchers, and possibly a utility player. This would likely be using up the majority of the funds we have available for a position we could get ok to pretty good returns from in Clemens. I had skipped over Zolls comments. My guess is we go for a cheaper option with thump buy I will be pleasantly surprised if we go this route. Then Clemens can go back to more of a utility roll.
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First off you have to consider, baseball is the toughest sport to assess talent. Secondly not all drafts or prospects are made the same. A top 5 pick in the 2024 draft was not the same as a top 5 pick in the 2023 draft. As of now the 2025 draft is being assessed as a really good draft class, better than 2024 not quite as good as 2023. As of now the 2025 draft has 1 clear cut stud in Roch Cholowsky, and several other really good prospects. As of now it looks like a really good top 4 with Lebron, Emerson and Lombard. Pitching seems to change drastically in the draft. If you think back to the 2023 draft. In January the big name was Dollander. Skenes was in the top 10 but he hadn't blown up to be potentially the best pitcher of this century. As to the odds of which pick, 22% is better than normal. If we don't get the 1st pick we want the White Sox to get it so it increases our odds to 30% per a pick. Ideally we want a top 4 pick (that was our record this year - we will see how it unfolds).
- 10 replies
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- walker jenkins
- brooks lee
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I said SS/middle infielders in the orginal post. The majority of our dept is SS. The majority of our top picks have been SS middle infield. To be fair though, there is less talent there than I thought.
- 50 replies
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- pablo lopez
- joe ryan
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Lee, Keaschall, Culpepper, Debarge, Young (maybe), Winokur (maybe), Schobel, Houston - then that is excluding Fitzgerald, Julien If you are keeping Winokur and Young at shortsop you do have a ton of SS/infield depth. 4 of the age levels has SS as the best prospect. Now can shortstops become 2nd baseman in the future yes. We already did trade Eeles for Jackson.
- 50 replies
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- pablo lopez
- joe ryan
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I agree - they are threading a needle - no different than 2019 - or the prior years. They need a lot of things to go right to be truly competitive. In my opinion we are marginal prospect heavy- so I would be completely fine with trading from some of this depth to help the big league team this year. Would someone overpay for say a Prielipp, Quick, Gonzalez, Hill Winokur, of Soto? I don't know. The minors is loaded with pitcher depth up and down the system. Matthews, Festa, Abel, SWR, Bradley, Rojas, Hill, Priellip, Quick, Soto (how is Soto rated lower than Gallagher on mlb prospects? LOL), Gallagher - interesting gambles here in Morris, Raya, and Culpepper - the Ellwanger, Barr, and Reitz from the draft. That is a lot of arms from MLB arms with 4 or more years of controll or prospects. Is this the year we finally trade from our SS middle infield glut in the minors? We will see. How they remake the bullpen is the most interesting thing to me this offseason.
- 50 replies
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- pablo lopez
- joe ryan
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I should have posted this earlier. My bet is optimism about the Twins increases after the winter meetings. 1. I'll make a bold prediction the Twins end up with a top 2 pick in the draft lotter. Odds are around 40% this happens. 2. They end up with a player in the rule 5 draft that most are pretty optimistic about. 3. The Twins do not trade one of the big 3 (with a caveat unless it actually looks like would help the team this year massive overpay situation) - effectively where most would be positive with the trade. 4. Makes good progress on bullpen. I am expecting 1 move trade or signing in the winter meetings - waiting on further moves later.
- 38 replies
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- byron buxton
- joe ryan
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In my opinion SWR has much more value than Ober. Just think about this SWR now is the higher velocity pitcher of the 2 with better metrics and better stats. The only thing ober has is height which allows for a better angle and further release point. If you are going to trade a pitcher - he could bring back a legitimate piece.
- 50 replies
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- pablo lopez
- joe ryan
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Buying prospects by taking on bad contracts
bunsen82 replied to DJL44's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
They have 4 MLB catchers now. Ruiz is a bit of an overpay salary wise. Played well in the first couple weeks then fell of a cliff. he would definitely be a buy low candidate. Back up catchers are expensive though. I think Ruiz is decent value in the backup position. -
It leaves questionable options - Rule 5 could give us some answers. Could there be a reality where the Twins picked Susac and decided to Run with a Susac/Jackson tandem. Sounds risky but if got decent return for Jeffers may make the team better. They could effectively get another 1st base option by taking Blaze Jordan. I would be more than fine taking a chance on him, and seeing if he can improve from his abysmal 2nd half. You would have spring training to see what you got. Most likely we take one of the arms to help the bullpen.
- 105 replies
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- ryan jeffers
- jt realmuto
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