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Fox Sports North Falsehoods of 2018's First Half
Andrew Thares commented on Miles Death's blog entry in Thome the Moneyball
I think my dream booth would be a three-man crew of either Dick Bremer or Corey Provis doing play-by-play with Justin Morneau and Roy Smalley as the analysts. Personally I think a 3 person booth is the best way to go because you get so much more fresh content and it's not just the same two guys with their typical back and forth every game. Plus with Smalley and Morneau you get two guys who played in two different generations to appeal to a wider demographic, but still understand and appreciate the game for what it is today. -
One of the more hot button issues for the Twins at the trade deadline has been what to do with Kyle Gibson. Do the Twins just hang onto him and let 2019 play out as it will, or do they try to trade him and look to keep building towards the future? Ultimately, the deciding factor will come down to the package the Twins get in return. While they likely won’t get a player who could one day be one of the 10 best athletes ever, they could certainly get a pretty good package in return for Gibson.There are currently three big factors going in the Twins favor. The first is how well Gibson has been pitching dating back to the end of last season. Another factor helping Gibson’s trade value is the lack of good available starting pitchers on the trade market. There have been rumors around Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Chris Archer, but there is a good chance that none of those three get traded before the deadline. After that the list of available starting pitchers drops off considerably, and Gibson is arguably better than all of them. The final thing helping Gibson’s trade value is the extra year of team control for 2019. What kind of return could the Twins get in exchange for Kyle Gibson? Look at some of the other trades that have already been made. On Wednesday, the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays struck a deal that sent Nathan Eovaldi to the Red Sox in exchange for Jalen Beeks. Beeks was recently ranked as the 6th best prospect in the Red Sox system by Baseball America. The Red Sox system isn’t as strong as most other farm systems across the league, so that ranking may look better than what Beeks would rank in many other systems. When comparing Kyle Gibson and Nathan Eovaldi, Gibson would easily be viewed as the more desirable trade candidate. Not only is Gibson more appealing for the remainder of this season, but he also has that extra year of control that Eovaldi doesn’t have. So it could be assumed that the package for Gibson would be a much better return than Jalen Beeks. To get a better idea of which prospects the Twins might be targeting, let’s break down a couple different teams that might have some interest in Kyle Gibson and see what they have to offer. Milwaukee Brewers Not only have the Brewers been in talks with the Twins in regards to both Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar, but they now have an interest in Kyle Gibson as well. A big part of this stems from the recent injury to Brent Suter, who will likely need Tommy John Surgery and probably won’t be back before the end of the 2019 season. For the Brewers, Kyle Gibson would make the perfect replacement in their rotation for Suter. When looking at the Brewers farm system, they have two key prospects that stick out: second baseman Keston Hiura and right-handed pitcher Corbin Burns. Hiura and Burns currently rank 34th and 58th respectively in Baseball America’s Top 100. Personally, I don’t see the Brewers giving up Hiura for Gibson, and I think it is unlikely that they will give up Burns for Gibson (at least not straight up). I think a deal for Gibson will wind up revolving around either Freddy Peralta or Corey Ray, along with an additional quality or prospect or two. Of the two, I personally prefer Ray to Peralta, even though Peralta is an MLB ready pitcher and Ray is an outfield prospect (of which the Twins have plenty). My reasoning for this is the upside on Corey Ray appears to be a lot higher than the upside on Freddy Peralta. With his stuff, I don’t see Peralta becoming anything better than a 3 or 4 starter, while Ray brings a rare combination of speed and power in the outfield. There are some concerns about some swing and miss in Ray’s game, but he has moved in the right direction lowering his strikeout rate from 31 percent down to 27.2 percent, while increasing his walk rate from 9.5 percent up to 11 percent at Double-A this season. Oakland Athletics With their surge over the past month, the Oakland A’s have vaulted themselves right into playoff contention. A big part of their success comes from their hitters and relievers, who rank 7th and 9th respectively in fWAR in the MLB. However, if there is one area in which the A’s could use some improvement, it is their starting rotation. The Athletics farm system is headlined by two stud pitchers in Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk. However I don’t see either one of those guys being made available in a trade for Gibson. I think the trade would actually revolve around catching prospect Sean Murphy. While Murphy is know a little more for his glove and his arm behind the plate, he is also putting together a nice season offensively with a .291/.359/.509 slash line (128 wRC+) in 65 Double-A games this season. Murphy is currently ranked as the 3rd best prospect in the A’s system and the 59th best prospect overall. I could also see Minnesota native Logan Shore possibly being involved in a package for Gibson. While he certainly won’t be the headliner of the deal, the 23-year-old pitching prospect could make a good secondary prospect in the deal. https://m.youtube.co...h?v=l6j5U0y9WHw Colorado Rockies As Jeremy Nygaard recently pointed out, the Colorado Rockies would also make an excellent suitor for Kyle Gibson’s services. The Rockies are a team that is always looking for starting pitching help, and adding a starter with an extra year of control has always been something they have sought. In Jeremy’s article, he touched on Rockies corner-infield prospect Ryan McMahon as a potential return. As an MLB-ready bat, and the ability to play third, McMahon could step in nicely and become the Twins full time third baseman as soon as the end of this season. After McMahon, a couple prospects to keep your eye on are middle-infielder Garrett Hampson and third basemen Colton Welker. Hampson is close to MLB ready and could give Nick Gordon some competition for the starting second base job next season, while Welker is still a couple years away and could join the elite group of prospects the Twins already have in Fort Myers. The Twins might also ask on pitching prospect Peter Lambert, but as is usually the case with the Rockies, they are more reluctant to give away their pitching prospects as free agent starting pitchers tend to stay away from Colorado. The Brewers, Athletics and Rockies are three teams that I see as great fits for Kyle Gibson, but there are other possibilities. Numerous teams could be looking for an extra starter to help them in a postseason run. Right now, Gibson is certainly that. Click here to view the article
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There are currently three big factors going in the Twins favor. The first is how well Gibson has been pitching dating back to the end of last season. Another factor helping Gibson’s trade value is the lack of good available starting pitchers on the trade market. There have been rumors around Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Chris Archer, but there is a good chance that none of those three get traded before the deadline. After that the list of available starting pitchers drops off considerably, and Gibson is arguably better than all of them. The final thing helping Gibson’s trade value is the extra year of team control for 2019. What kind of return could the Twins get in exchange for Kyle Gibson? Look at some of the other trades that have already been made. On Wednesday, the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays struck a deal that sent Nathan Eovaldi to the Red Sox in exchange for Jalen Beeks. Beeks was recently ranked as the 6th best prospect in the Red Sox system by Baseball America. The Red Sox system isn’t as strong as most other farm systems across the league, so that ranking may look better than what Beeks would rank in many other systems. When comparing Kyle Gibson and Nathan Eovaldi, Gibson would easily be viewed as the more desirable trade candidate. Not only is Gibson more appealing for the remainder of this season, but he also has that extra year of control that Eovaldi doesn’t have. So it could be assumed that the package for Gibson would be a much better return than Jalen Beeks. To get a better idea of which prospects the Twins might be targeting, let’s break down a couple different teams that might have some interest in Kyle Gibson and see what they have to offer. Milwaukee Brewers Not only have the Brewers been in talks with the Twins in regards to both Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar, but they now have an interest in Kyle Gibson as well. A big part of this stems from the recent injury to Brent Suter, who will likely need Tommy John Surgery and probably won’t be back before the end of the 2019 season. For the Brewers, Kyle Gibson would make the perfect replacement in their rotation for Suter. When looking at the Brewers farm system, they have two key prospects that stick out: second baseman Keston Hiura and right-handed pitcher Corbin Burns. Hiura and Burns currently rank 34th and 58th respectively in Baseball America’s Top 100. Personally, I don’t see the Brewers giving up Hiura for Gibson, and I think it is unlikely that they will give up Burns for Gibson (at least not straight up). I think a deal for Gibson will wind up revolving around either Freddy Peralta or Corey Ray, along with an additional quality or prospect or two. Of the two, I personally prefer Ray to Peralta, even though Peralta is an MLB ready pitcher and Ray is an outfield prospect (of which the Twins have plenty). My reasoning for this is the upside on Corey Ray appears to be a lot higher than the upside on Freddy Peralta. With his stuff, I don’t see Peralta becoming anything better than a 3 or 4 starter, while Ray brings a rare combination of speed and power in the outfield. There are some concerns about some swing and miss in Ray’s game, but he has moved in the right direction lowering his strikeout rate from 31 percent down to 27.2 percent, while increasing his walk rate from 9.5 percent up to 11 percent at Double-A this season. Oakland Athletics With their surge over the past month, the Oakland A’s have vaulted themselves right into playoff contention. A big part of their success comes from their hitters and relievers, who rank 7th and 9th respectively in fWAR in the MLB. However, if there is one area in which the A’s could use some improvement, it is their starting rotation. The Athletics farm system is headlined by two stud pitchers in Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk. However I don’t see either one of those guys being made available in a trade for Gibson. I think the trade would actually revolve around catching prospect Sean Murphy. While Murphy is know a little more for his glove and his arm behind the plate, he is also putting together a nice season offensively with a .291/.359/.509 slash line (128 wRC+) in 65 Double-A games this season. Murphy is currently ranked as the 3rd best prospect in the A’s system and the 59th best prospect overall. I could also see Minnesota native Logan Shore possibly being involved in a package for Gibson. While he certainly won’t be the headliner of the deal, the 23-year-old pitching prospect could make a good secondary prospect in the deal. [media]https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=l6j5U0y9WHw[/media] Colorado Rockies As Jeremy Nygaard recently pointed out, the Colorado Rockies would also make an excellent suitor for Kyle Gibson’s services. The Rockies are a team that is always looking for starting pitching help, and adding a starter with an extra year of control has always been something they have sought. In Jeremy’s article, he touched on Rockies corner-infield prospect Ryan McMahon as a potential return. As an MLB-ready bat, and the ability to play third, McMahon could step in nicely and become the Twins full time third baseman as soon as the end of this season. After McMahon, a couple prospects to keep your eye on are middle-infielder Garrett Hampson and third basemen Colton Welker. Hampson is close to MLB ready and could give Nick Gordon some competition for the starting second base job next season, while Welker is still a couple years away and could join the elite group of prospects the Twins already have in Fort Myers. The Twins might also ask on pitching prospect Peter Lambert, but as is usually the case with the Rockies, they are more reluctant to give away their pitching prospects as free agent starting pitchers tend to stay away from Colorado. The Brewers, Athletics and Rockies are three teams that I see as great fits for Kyle Gibson, but there are other possibilities. Numerous teams could be looking for an extra starter to help them in a postseason run. Right now, Gibson is certainly that.
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Article: Report: Ryan Pressly Traded To Houston
Andrew Thares replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To me this suggests that there is a good chance Kyle Gibson gets traded as well. If the front office was willing to move one of the 2019 controllable players, you would have to image that both of them would be on the table. Still, they shouldn't settle on a deal for Gibson unless they get a great offer.- 88 replies
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With the trade deadline just a week away, the Minnesota Twins still have yet to make a move, despite the large number of players they have who could potentially be traded. The next week is one that is sure to be filled with a ton of action for Twins fans, as the team looks to add more pieces to an exciting farm system. In this article I will attempt to predict which Twins players will be traded and to which teams I think they will be traded to.Brian Dozier Prediction – Traded to the Milwaukee Brewers Brian Dozier has started to heat up at just the right time and as a result has brought back some of his trade value. While there have been a number of teams with reported interest in Dozier, there have been none more so than the Milwaukee Brewers. At second base, the Brewers only decent option this year has been Jonathan Villar, who was recently placed on the disabled list with a right thumb sprain. However, even when healthy, Dozier is a considerable upgrade over Villar for Milwaukee. Outside of Corbin Burns and Freddy Peralta, who will most likely not be made available in a trade for Dozier, the Brewers lack the quality pitching prospects that would intrigue the Twins. One Brewers prospect that piques my interest is outfielder Corey Ray who has showing impressive feats of power and speed, hitting 19 home runs and stealing 30 bases in Double-A this season and is currently ranked as the 5th best prospect in the Brewers system according to Baseball America. Eduardo Escobar Prediction – Traded to the Philadelphia Phillies One of the few Twins players who has actually improved his trade value this season has been Eduardo Escobar. Last week, I wrote about him being the best available shortstop on the trade market after the Manny Machado trade. While third base is clearly his better position, I see a team in need of help at shortstop needing him the most. What makes the Philadelphia Phillies the perfect fit for Escobar is their need for improvement at both shortstop and third base. Escobar’s flexibility to play both positions will serve the Phillies well as they look to play around with their lineup down the stretch. Fernando Rodney Prediction – Traded to the Philadelphia Phillies As is always the case, nearly every team that is in playoff contention this time of year is looking to add another bullpen arm or two that they can rely on during a postseason run. While many of these teams might not be looking at Rodney to be their closer, he could still be a valuable weapon in the back-end of a contending team’s bullpen. One likely candidate that I think Rodney would fit well on is the Philadelphia Phillies. The back-end of their bullpen has been a revolving door all season, and right now they have just three guys in Seranthony Dominguez, Victor Arano and Edubray Ramos that they can count on in high leverage situations during the postseason. Not only would Rodney add depth to that bullpen, but he could be a much needed veteran presence as the average age of those three is just shy of 24. Additionally, Rodney would make a great add-on piece to trade with Eduardo Escobar to try to get a higher quality prospect back in. Kyle Gibson Prediction – Not Traded As much as I would like to see Kyle Gibson get traded before the deadline, I have a feeling that the Twins are going stay put with Gibson for now and look forward to 2019. Given the current trade market for starting pitchers, Gibson would be an ideal player for many teams to target. However, there hasn’t been much in the way of rumors surrounding Gibson, and with the plethora of players on expiring contracts for the Twins front office to focus on, I could easily see the Twins deciding to focus their attention elsewhere unless they receive a really strong offer. Ryan Pressly Prediction – Not Traded Last week over at Baseball Prospectus, Matthew Trueblood wrote an interesting article about the trade value of Ryan Pressly, and how he might be one of the most valuable relief options on the market. Much like Kyle Gibson, Pressly is still under control through 2019 which gives added interest for opposing teams to make a trade for him. That being said, I see the Twins taking the same approach with Pressly as they will with Gibson and deciding to look towards 2019, even if I would personally prefer them to try to trade Pressly. Zach Duke Prediction – Traded to the Boston Red Sox Zach Duke has been a sneaky good signing for the Twins this offseason. He has had a couple rough outings of late which have ballooned his ERA up to a still respectable 3.75, but his FIP remains nearly a full run lower at 2.77. Additionally, the Statcast metrics love Duke even more as he has the best expected wOBA (xwOBA) of any Twins pitcher at .263 (minimum 100 batters faced). There are a number of teams who could use a left-handed reliever and one in particular that sticks out is the Boston Red Sox. Right now, the Red Sox only left-handed option out of the pen is Brain Johnson, who has a 5.10 ERA in 30 innings pitched this season. Zach Duke would serve as a considerable upgrade over Johnson in Boston. Lance Lynn Prediction – Traded to the Oakland Athletics in August Lance Lynn is a tricky case. He has been nothing but downright bad this season (5.23 ERA in 96 1/3 innings), and wasn’t exactly highly sought after this past winter, leading the Twins to take a 1-year $12 million flyer on him. I struggle to find a team in contention where Lynn would be a good fit, but one team that could make sense is the Oakland Athletics. With their surge over the past month, the A’s are just 2.5 games back in the AL Wild Card race (entering play on Tuesday). The A’s could view Lynn as a potential flyer to see if he could return to his old form. If nothing else he could be an innings eater for them down the stretch, which is something they desperately need as they have just two starters who have thrown more than 62 1/3 innings this season. If the Twins are able to trade Lynn, I think they will most likely have to eat some, if not all of the roughly $4 million still owed to him. Logan Morrison Prediction – Not Traded When it comes to disappointing seasons, Logan Morrison’s has been on par with Lance Lynn’s. As a 1B/DH type who doesn’t provide much defensive value when playing first, Morrison’s worth relies almost entirely on his bat. Unfortunately for the Twins, Morrison has been one of the worst hitters on the team with a slash line of just .195/.288/.375 and 12 home runs (81 wRC+). At this point it is hard to see a contending team even wanting Morrison on their team to come off the bench. Ervin Santana Prediction – Not Traded Ervin Santana is finally set to make his season debut on Wednesday afternoon against the Toronto Blue Jays. With just a week left before the non-waiver deadline on July 31st, Santana won’t have enough time to prove that he is back and ready to pitch for a contender. If there is any chance of the Twins trading Santana at all, it will have to come in August before the wavier deadline. Fortunately for the Twins, Santana should easily pass through waivers, given his contract, and will become open to being traded to any team before the end of August. Whether or not Santana gets traded will come down to how well he pitches over the next month. Given the way he has been pitching during his rehab assignment that will be a tough hill to climb. Click here to view the article
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Brian Dozier Prediction – Traded to the Milwaukee Brewers Brian Dozier has started to heat up at just the right time and as a result has brought back some of his trade value. While there have been a number of teams with reported interest in Dozier, there have been none more so than the Milwaukee Brewers. At second base, the Brewers only decent option this year has been Jonathan Villar, who was recently placed on the disabled list with a right thumb sprain. However, even when healthy, Dozier is a considerable upgrade over Villar for Milwaukee. Outside of Corbin Burns and Freddy Peralta, who will most likely not be made available in a trade for Dozier, the Brewers lack the quality pitching prospects that would intrigue the Twins. One Brewers prospect that piques my interest is outfielder Corey Ray who has showing impressive feats of power and speed, hitting 19 home runs and stealing 30 bases in Double-A this season and is currently ranked as the 5th best prospect in the Brewers system according to Baseball America. Eduardo Escobar Prediction – Traded to the Philadelphia Phillies One of the few Twins players who has actually improved his trade value this season has been Eduardo Escobar. Last week, I wrote about him being the best available shortstop on the trade market after the Manny Machado trade. While third base is clearly his better position, I see a team in need of help at shortstop needing him the most. What makes the Philadelphia Phillies the perfect fit for Escobar is their need for improvement at both shortstop and third base. Escobar’s flexibility to play both positions will serve the Phillies well as they look to play around with their lineup down the stretch. Fernando Rodney Prediction – Traded to the Philadelphia Phillies As is always the case, nearly every team that is in playoff contention this time of year is looking to add another bullpen arm or two that they can rely on during a postseason run. While many of these teams might not be looking at Rodney to be their closer, he could still be a valuable weapon in the back-end of a contending team’s bullpen. One likely candidate that I think Rodney would fit well on is the Philadelphia Phillies. The back-end of their bullpen has been a revolving door all season, and right now they have just three guys in Seranthony Dominguez, Victor Arano and Edubray Ramos that they can count on in high leverage situations during the postseason. Not only would Rodney add depth to that bullpen, but he could be a much needed veteran presence as the average age of those three is just shy of 24. Additionally, Rodney would make a great add-on piece to trade with Eduardo Escobar to try to get a higher quality prospect back in. Kyle Gibson Prediction – Not Traded As much as I would like to see Kyle Gibson get traded before the deadline, I have a feeling that the Twins are going stay put with Gibson for now and look forward to 2019. Given the current trade market for starting pitchers, Gibson would be an ideal player for many teams to target. However, there hasn’t been much in the way of rumors surrounding Gibson, and with the plethora of players on expiring contracts for the Twins front office to focus on, I could easily see the Twins deciding to focus their attention elsewhere unless they receive a really strong offer. Ryan Pressly Prediction – Not Traded Last week over at Baseball Prospectus, Matthew Trueblood wrote an interesting article about the trade value of Ryan Pressly, and how he might be one of the most valuable relief options on the market. Much like Kyle Gibson, Pressly is still under control through 2019 which gives added interest for opposing teams to make a trade for him. That being said, I see the Twins taking the same approach with Pressly as they will with Gibson and deciding to look towards 2019, even if I would personally prefer them to try to trade Pressly. Zach Duke Prediction – Traded to the Boston Red Sox Zach Duke has been a sneaky good signing for the Twins this offseason. He has had a couple rough outings of late which have ballooned his ERA up to a still respectable 3.75, but his FIP remains nearly a full run lower at 2.77. Additionally, the Statcast metrics love Duke even more as he has the best expected wOBA (xwOBA) of any Twins pitcher at .263 (minimum 100 batters faced). There are a number of teams who could use a left-handed reliever and one in particular that sticks out is the Boston Red Sox. Right now, the Red Sox only left-handed option out of the pen is Brain Johnson, who has a 5.10 ERA in 30 innings pitched this season. Zach Duke would serve as a considerable upgrade over Johnson in Boston. Lance Lynn Prediction – Traded to the Oakland Athletics in August Lance Lynn is a tricky case. He has been nothing but downright bad this season (5.23 ERA in 96 1/3 innings), and wasn’t exactly highly sought after this past winter, leading the Twins to take a 1-year $12 million flyer on him. I struggle to find a team in contention where Lynn would be a good fit, but one team that could make sense is the Oakland Athletics. With their surge over the past month, the A’s are just 2.5 games back in the AL Wild Card race (entering play on Tuesday). The A’s could view Lynn as a potential flyer to see if he could return to his old form. If nothing else he could be an innings eater for them down the stretch, which is something they desperately need as they have just two starters who have thrown more than 62 1/3 innings this season. If the Twins are able to trade Lynn, I think they will most likely have to eat some, if not all of the roughly $4 million still owed to him. Logan Morrison Prediction – Not Traded When it comes to disappointing seasons, Logan Morrison’s has been on par with Lance Lynn’s. As a 1B/DH type who doesn’t provide much defensive value when playing first, Morrison’s worth relies almost entirely on his bat. Unfortunately for the Twins, Morrison has been one of the worst hitters on the team with a slash line of just .195/.288/.375 and 12 home runs (81 wRC+). At this point it is hard to see a contending team even wanting Morrison on their team to come off the bench. Ervin Santana Prediction – Not Traded Ervin Santana is finally set to make his season debut on Wednesday afternoon against the Toronto Blue Jays. With just a week left before the non-waiver deadline on July 31st, Santana won’t have enough time to prove that he is back and ready to pitch for a contender. If there is any chance of the Twins trading Santana at all, it will have to come in August before the wavier deadline. Fortunately for the Twins, Santana should easily pass through waivers, given his contract, and will become open to being traded to any team before the end of August. Whether or not Santana gets traded will come down to how well he pitches over the next month. Given the way he has been pitching during his rehab assignment that will be a tough hill to climb.
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Just because you have more money to spend than usual, it doesn't mean you should spend it frivolously. If the Twins were to offer Escobar a qualifying offer he would almost certainly take it. If that's the case, the Twins would be better off trying to work out a multi-year deal with Escobar at a better average annual value. Plus if Escobar takes the qualifying offer, then the Twins are in the same boat next year, except they won't be able to just offer Escobar another qualifying offer.
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I think we overplay how bad Hicks actually was in Minnesota. 928 plate appearances is roughly a season and a half worth. If you put up 2.5 fWAR over a season and a half that is barley below league average, and league average players have quite a bit of value. I've always thought that getting rid of Hicks was a bad idea, which is why I think the people that think the Twins should dump Buxton are silly. Hicks was showing signs of improvement in 2015 before they traded him. In just 97 games he put up a 2.0 fWAR season. When you have players in your organization who have a bunch of talent like Hicks, why would you trade him away right as he is starting to show you that talent? Especially when he was under cheap team control for another 4 years at that point.
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I think everyone that wants to just extend Escobar instead of trading him is missing the point. Would the Twins be interested in extending Escobar? Sure. But you can’t just snap your fingers and make that happen. What possible reason would Escobar have for actually accepting an extension right now with free agency just 2 months away? The only reason players ever take extensions in the first place is because they are a few years away from free agency so it takes away the risk if they get hurt or their game going to hell. However, when you’re just 2 months away from free agency that risk is very low. So how is Escobar better off by taking an extension now as opposed to waiting until November when all 30 teams could bid on him?
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Umm... because he is gonna be a free agent at the end of the year. If the Twins want to bring back Escobar for the future of this team they can still do that this winter even if they trade him, and even if they don't trade him it doesn't guarantee that he will sign with the Twins. Who Escobar plays with in 2019 and beyond will most likely come down to which team gives him the best offer this winter, not which team he ends the 2018 season on.
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I think there is a 0% chance of either one of those guys becoming available. The Reds just gave Eugenio Suarez a 7-year contract extension this past offseason and Andrelton Simmons is under control through 2020, and the Angels plan on competing over the next couple years while they still have Mike Trout under contract.
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The 2018 MLB trade deadline was always going to revolve around one player, and that was Baltimore Orioles shortstop Manny Machado. Among the list of players who are expected to be available at the deadline, none of them come anywhere close to matching the stardom that Machado has. However, at the end of the day there is only one Manny Machado and he can only play for one team. So, that means there is now a handful of teams who must now look elsewhere to fill the hole in their roster they were looking for Machado to fill as they make a playoff push.Fortunately for the Twins, the next best available shortstop on the trade market now appears to be Eduardo Escobar. Now, I know Escobar has spent the majority of his time this year at third base, and he is a much better defender at the hot corner, but Escobar still has the ability to play short and the presence he can bring with his bat there will be a welcome upgrade for a number of teams. There are a few big things going in Escobar’s favor that make him an attractive player for contending teams. This first is his excellent play on the field ever since he took over as a full-time player nearly a year ago. Going back to August 20th of last year (the day Escobar took over full time after the Miguel Sano injury), Escobar has a .266/.319/.513 slash line with 24 home runs and 40 doubles in 130 games. Another factor in the favor of Escobar’s trade value is his position versatility. If it is needed, Escobar could play second, short or third, which opens the door to a lot more teams being able to benefit from adding Escobar to their roster. The next factor is at the trade deadline, Escobar will only have a little more than $1.5 million left on his contract. So, Escobar won’t be a problem for teams that are hesitant to add much more in terms of payroll. Finally, Escobar’s clubhouse presence can’t be overstated. While it’s hard to put a number on this, teams will appreciate knowing that Escobar won’t hurt the team’s camaraderie as they make a push for the postseason. After Escobar, the list of other shortstops available isn’t very long. Perhaps the next most intriguing player is Jose Iglesias. Unlike Escobar, Iglesias is known for his defensive prowess at short. However, his bat has never been all that good, so most of his value is wrapped up in his glove. For teams looking to add another impact bat to their lineup, which is usually the case at the trade deadline, Iglesias can’t provide that. Another player of interest might be Elvis Andrus. Andrus has been one of the better shortstops in the game in recent years, but he has been struggling with injuries this year and as a result has played in just 36 games. One factor that could prevent Andrus from being traded is his contract situation. After 2018, Andrus is under control for another 4-years for $59 million, with an option for a fifth year. With Andrus still just 29, and the quality of player he is, that is a pretty team friendly deal. While this would normally increase Andrus's trade value, there is one stipulation that prevents this, and that is two player options after 2018 and 2019 that only kick in if Andrus is traded. So, if a team were to acquire Andrus via trade, the leverage instantly switches to him and he could easily opt out for free agency. A few other shortstops that could be available include Adeiny Hechavarria, Freddy Galvis & Alcides Escobar who are all essentially just a lesser version of the same player Jose Iglesias is. As you can see, the market for available shortstops is pretty bleak beyond Eduardo Escobar. So, the question is, which teams will be most interested in striking a deal with the Twins for Eduardo Escobar? Well, the two most obvious teams of interest are the Philadelphia Phiilles and Milwaukee Brewers. Both teams were players in the Manny Machado sweepstakes until the very end, and they are both looking to fill a pretty glaring hole at shortstop as the Phillies and Brewers rank 24th and 30th respectively in fWAR from the shortstop position. The Phillies could also use the help at third base as they rank 27th as a team with a 0.4 fWAR from their third basemen this year. Another team that might show some interest in Escobar is the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks aren’t necessarily bad at short or third, but they are not all that good at those positions either. With Jake Lamb in a down year, and Nick Ahmed struggling offensively, Escobar’s bat and versatility could be a welcome addition to the Arizona infield. There are most likely a few other teams that will be interested in Escobar as well, but the Phillies, Brewers and Diamondbacks are the three teams that have the most to gain by adding Escobar to their lineup. At the end of the day, the fact that Eduardo Escobar will become a free agent at the end of this season will still limit his trade value, but if I was a team that could use an upgrade in the infield I would be on the phone with the Twins every day trying to make a deal to acquire Eduardo Escobar. Click here to view the article
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With Machado Gone, Eduardo Escobar Becomes The Best Shortstop Available
Andrew Thares posted an article in Twins
Fortunately for the Twins, the next best available shortstop on the trade market now appears to be Eduardo Escobar. Now, I know Escobar has spent the majority of his time this year at third base, and he is a much better defender at the hot corner, but Escobar still has the ability to play short and the presence he can bring with his bat there will be a welcome upgrade for a number of teams. There are a few big things going in Escobar’s favor that make him an attractive player for contending teams. This first is his excellent play on the field ever since he took over as a full-time player nearly a year ago. Going back to August 20th of last year (the day Escobar took over full time after the Miguel Sano injury), Escobar has a .266/.319/.513 slash line with 24 home runs and 40 doubles in 130 games. Another factor in the favor of Escobar’s trade value is his position versatility. If it is needed, Escobar could play second, short or third, which opens the door to a lot more teams being able to benefit from adding Escobar to their roster. The next factor is at the trade deadline, Escobar will only have a little more than $1.5 million left on his contract. So, Escobar won’t be a problem for teams that are hesitant to add much more in terms of payroll. Finally, Escobar’s clubhouse presence can’t be overstated. While it’s hard to put a number on this, teams will appreciate knowing that Escobar won’t hurt the team’s camaraderie as they make a push for the postseason. After Escobar, the list of other shortstops available isn’t very long. Perhaps the next most intriguing player is Jose Iglesias. Unlike Escobar, Iglesias is known for his defensive prowess at short. However, his bat has never been all that good, so most of his value is wrapped up in his glove. For teams looking to add another impact bat to their lineup, which is usually the case at the trade deadline, Iglesias can’t provide that. Another player of interest might be Elvis Andrus. Andrus has been one of the better shortstops in the game in recent years, but he has been struggling with injuries this year and as a result has played in just 36 games. One factor that could prevent Andrus from being traded is his contract situation. After 2018, Andrus is under control for another 4-years for $59 million, with an option for a fifth year. With Andrus still just 29, and the quality of player he is, that is a pretty team friendly deal. While this would normally increase Andrus's trade value, there is one stipulation that prevents this, and that is two player options after 2018 and 2019 that only kick in if Andrus is traded. So, if a team were to acquire Andrus via trade, the leverage instantly switches to him and he could easily opt out for free agency. A few other shortstops that could be available include Adeiny Hechavarria, Freddy Galvis & Alcides Escobar who are all essentially just a lesser version of the same player Jose Iglesias is. As you can see, the market for available shortstops is pretty bleak beyond Eduardo Escobar. So, the question is, which teams will be most interested in striking a deal with the Twins for Eduardo Escobar? Well, the two most obvious teams of interest are the Philadelphia Phiilles and Milwaukee Brewers. Both teams were players in the Manny Machado sweepstakes until the very end, and they are both looking to fill a pretty glaring hole at shortstop as the Phillies and Brewers rank 24th and 30th respectively in fWAR from the shortstop position. The Phillies could also use the help at third base as they rank 27th as a team with a 0.4 fWAR from their third basemen this year. Another team that might show some interest in Escobar is the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks aren’t necessarily bad at short or third, but they are not all that good at those positions either. With Jake Lamb in a down year, and Nick Ahmed struggling offensively, Escobar’s bat and versatility could be a welcome addition to the Arizona infield. There are most likely a few other teams that will be interested in Escobar as well, but the Phillies, Brewers and Diamondbacks are the three teams that have the most to gain by adding Escobar to their lineup. At the end of the day, the fact that Eduardo Escobar will become a free agent at the end of this season will still limit his trade value, but if I was a team that could use an upgrade in the infield I would be on the phone with the Twins every day trying to make a deal to acquire Eduardo Escobar. -
Article: Potential Suitors for Brian Dozier
Andrew Thares replied to Andrew Thares's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It appears as though the Brewers are interested in both Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar... https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-trade-deadline/c-281084458?tid=282421090 -
Article: Potential Suitors for Brian Dozier
Andrew Thares replied to Andrew Thares's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Ah my mistake, I was really confused on how that could have gotten overlooked. -
Article: Potential Suitors for Brian Dozier
Andrew Thares replied to Andrew Thares's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Sorry I put them in bold font, but if you missed them it was the Red Sox, Dodgers, Brewers and Giants. -
Article: Potential Suitors for Brian Dozier
Andrew Thares replied to Andrew Thares's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Depends which WAR you use. According to Fangraphs Dozier has a lead of 1.0 to 0.6. Dozier also has a much better track record than Villar. So I guess if you’re the Brewers you have to ask yourself who would you rather have playing second base for you during a pennant run, Brian Dozier or Jonathan Villar? For me I’m taking Dozier in a heartbeat. -
With the trade deadline just three weeks away, and all signs pointing towards the Twins being sellers at the deadline, contending teams are starting to take stock of what the Twins have to offer. Despite being in a down year (relative to his normal production) and on an expiring contract, Dozier remains one of the top players the Twins have to offer at the deadline.I get that there is still somewhat of an ongoing debate about whether or not it is the best decision for the Twins to move Dozier at the deadline or wait until this winter and give him a qualifying offer. While I agree that both sides of the debate are still up for discussion that is not the point of this article. Instead, we will be looking into which teams have the most to gain by adding Brian Dozier to their roster before the deadline to try and assess what kind of value Dozier might have. Boston Red Sox For the past decade, the Boston Red Sox have been a team with very little concern about second base with Dustin Pedroia manning the position. However, with the combination of age and injury, question marks have started to arise for the Red Sox at second. Pedroia has played just three games all season and is currently on the disabled-list with no clear timetable for his return. With Pedroia out, the Red Sox have used a combination of Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt at second. Nunez is coming off a couple of okay years in 2016 and 2017 (combined 5.1 fWAR), but has been absolutely dreadful this season to the tune of a -0.4 fWAR. On the other hand, Holt has been a better option for the Red Sox at second, but his best attribute to the team is as a utility man so he isn’t exactly their full-time answer for second base. With Dozier on the team, he provides an immediate upgrade over Nunez. He also brings a lot more upside than does Holt, who has just a career 4.3 fWAR spread across seven Major League seasons. Los Angeles Dodgers If there is a contending team that would see the biggest upgrade at the second base position by adding Brian Dozier, it is the Los Angeles Dodgers. A couple of years ago the Dodgers were linked as the team with the most interest in trading for Brian Dozier, but those talks inevitably feel through as the Dodgers decided to go for Logan Forsythe instead. That move hasn’t panned out too well for them, as Forsythe had an okay season last year, but has been terrible in Dodger blue this year with a .202/.260/.301 slash line to go along with just two home runs, good for a 54 wRC+ (100 being league average). The other main option for the Dodgers at second base has been an aging Chase Utley. Much like Forsythe, Utley has had a down year at the plate with an OPS of .621 and a wRC+ of 71. Combined the Dodgers have received -0.6 fWAR at the second base position in 2018, which ranks 28th in all of baseball. By comparison, Brian Dozier has been worth 1.0 fWAR this season and is on pace for a league average season despite how poorly it seems like he has played. That alone would be a big upgrade for the Dodgers. Milwaukee Brewers Another contending team that could use an upgrade at second base is the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers improved on an 86-win team from a year ago with the additions of Lornezo Cain and Christian Yelich, along with the breakout performances from Josh Hader and Jesus Aguilar. However, one area where the Brewers could use some help is in the middle-infield. Coming off a strong season in 2016, Jonathan Villar has been nothing but a disappointment over the last two years. This year Villar is hitting .265/.312/.388 with six home runs. He also has just 13 stolen bases this year, so the additional production he has brought on the base paths has been limited. The Brewers have also tried out Hernan Perez and the recently DFA’d Eric Sogard at second base, but neither has given them much production. With the Brewers squarely in the middle of a divisional race with the Chicago Cubs, they will almost certainly be looking to upgrade one of their weakest areas on the team. San Francisco Giants The Giants made a statement this winter that they wanted to compete in 2018 with the additions of Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria. Even though things havenot gone exactly as planned with their pitching staff, the Giants find themselves at 48-45 and just three games out in the NL West and four games back of the second NL Wild Card position. Joe Panik has served as the team’s second baseman since their World Series run in 2014 but has dealt with some injuries this year. Panik missed all of May after having surgery on his left thumb and was just placed back on the DL on Saturday with a groin injury. Even when Panik has been healthy, he has struggled his way to a .654 OPS. With an organization that clearly has a mind set on winning now, and a team that is very much in the hunt, it would not be a surprise if the Giants look for a short-term answer at second base as they try to continue their push back into the postseason. Other Available Second Basemen Now that we have established that there will be a market for second basemen at the trade deadline, the other thing to consider is what other second basemen are available for teams to choose from. Unfortunately for the Twins, the list of seemingly available second basemen is pretty strong. Scooter Gennett – The Cincinnati Reds second basemen has been one of the better players at that position in major league baseball over the past couple of seasons. So far this year Scooter Genett has a .322/.366/.509 slash line with 14 home runs, and ranks fifth among all second basemen with a 2.9 fWAR. Gennett is under control through 2019, but with the Reds being unlikely to compete next season they should be looking to move him now to maximize his value. Jed Lowrie – The A’s have exceeded many people’s expectations this year, and a big part of that has been the play from Jed Lowrie, whose 3.3 fWAR ranks second among all MLB second basemen. The A’s have gotten hot of late and pulled within six games of the Mariners for the second AL Wild Card spot. If the A’s can stay hot over the next few weeks that will be great news for the Twins as they will look to be buyers instead of sellers at the deadline, thus taking Lowrie off the market. Starlin Castro – Another second baseman who could be on the move by the end of this month is Starlin Castro. If nothing else, the salary conscious Marlins will be looking to get his contract off their books. Despite being in his eighth MLB season, Castro still is only 28 and under control for $11 million in 2019 with a team option of $16 million in 2020 ($1 million buyout). For every team except the Marlins this is a pretty affordable contract for a player who is still producing at a quality level. Given these circumstances, I wouldn’t be surprised if we have to wait until right up before the deadline before Brian Dozier is traded away (if he does get traded). I think buying teams will be waiting to see what happens with Scooter Gennett and Jed Lowrie before they make a move on Brian Dozier. I also think the Twins might hold off on Dozier as long as they can, hoping he might get on one of his patented hot streaks and increase his trade value before the deadline. Click here to view the article
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I get that there is still somewhat of an ongoing debate about whether or not it is the best decision for the Twins to move Dozier at the deadline or wait until this winter and give him a qualifying offer. While I agree that both sides of the debate are still up for discussion that is not the point of this article. Instead, we will be looking into which teams have the most to gain by adding Brian Dozier to their roster before the deadline to try and assess what kind of value Dozier might have. Boston Red Sox For the past decade, the Boston Red Sox have been a team with very little concern about second base with Dustin Pedroia manning the position. However, with the combination of age and injury, question marks have started to arise for the Red Sox at second. Pedroia has played just three games all season and is currently on the disabled-list with no clear timetable for his return. With Pedroia out, the Red Sox have used a combination of Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt at second. Nunez is coming off a couple of okay years in 2016 and 2017 (combined 5.1 fWAR), but has been absolutely dreadful this season to the tune of a -0.4 fWAR. On the other hand, Holt has been a better option for the Red Sox at second, but his best attribute to the team is as a utility man so he isn’t exactly their full-time answer for second base. With Dozier on the team, he provides an immediate upgrade over Nunez. He also brings a lot more upside than does Holt, who has just a career 4.3 fWAR spread across seven Major League seasons. Los Angeles Dodgers If there is a contending team that would see the biggest upgrade at the second base position by adding Brian Dozier, it is the Los Angeles Dodgers. A couple of years ago the Dodgers were linked as the team with the most interest in trading for Brian Dozier, but those talks inevitably feel through as the Dodgers decided to go for Logan Forsythe instead. That move hasn’t panned out too well for them, as Forsythe had an okay season last year, but has been terrible in Dodger blue this year with a .202/.260/.301 slash line to go along with just two home runs, good for a 54 wRC+ (100 being league average). The other main option for the Dodgers at second base has been an aging Chase Utley. Much like Forsythe, Utley has had a down year at the plate with an OPS of .621 and a wRC+ of 71. Combined the Dodgers have received -0.6 fWAR at the second base position in 2018, which ranks 28th in all of baseball. By comparison, Brian Dozier has been worth 1.0 fWAR this season and is on pace for a league average season despite how poorly it seems like he has played. That alone would be a big upgrade for the Dodgers. Milwaukee Brewers Another contending team that could use an upgrade at second base is the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers improved on an 86-win team from a year ago with the additions of Lornezo Cain and Christian Yelich, along with the breakout performances from Josh Hader and Jesus Aguilar. However, one area where the Brewers could use some help is in the middle-infield. Coming off a strong season in 2016, Jonathan Villar has been nothing but a disappointment over the last two years. This year Villar is hitting .265/.312/.388 with six home runs. He also has just 13 stolen bases this year, so the additional production he has brought on the base paths has been limited. The Brewers have also tried out Hernan Perez and the recently DFA’d Eric Sogard at second base, but neither has given them much production. With the Brewers squarely in the middle of a divisional race with the Chicago Cubs, they will almost certainly be looking to upgrade one of their weakest areas on the team. San Francisco Giants The Giants made a statement this winter that they wanted to compete in 2018 with the additions of Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria. Even though things havenot gone exactly as planned with their pitching staff, the Giants find themselves at 48-45 and just three games out in the NL West and four games back of the second NL Wild Card position. Joe Panik has served as the team’s second baseman since their World Series run in 2014 but has dealt with some injuries this year. Panik missed all of May after having surgery on his left thumb and was just placed back on the DL on Saturday with a groin injury. Even when Panik has been healthy, he has struggled his way to a .654 OPS. With an organization that clearly has a mind set on winning now, and a team that is very much in the hunt, it would not be a surprise if the Giants look for a short-term answer at second base as they try to continue their push back into the postseason. Other Available Second Basemen Now that we have established that there will be a market for second basemen at the trade deadline, the other thing to consider is what other second basemen are available for teams to choose from. Unfortunately for the Twins, the list of seemingly available second basemen is pretty strong. Scooter Gennett – The Cincinnati Reds second basemen has been one of the better players at that position in major league baseball over the past couple of seasons. So far this year Scooter Genett has a .322/.366/.509 slash line with 14 home runs, and ranks fifth among all second basemen with a 2.9 fWAR. Gennett is under control through 2019, but with the Reds being unlikely to compete next season they should be looking to move him now to maximize his value. Jed Lowrie – The A’s have exceeded many people’s expectations this year, and a big part of that has been the play from Jed Lowrie, whose 3.3 fWAR ranks second among all MLB second basemen. The A’s have gotten hot of late and pulled within six games of the Mariners for the second AL Wild Card spot. If the A’s can stay hot over the next few weeks that will be great news for the Twins as they will look to be buyers instead of sellers at the deadline, thus taking Lowrie off the market. Starlin Castro – Another second baseman who could be on the move by the end of this month is Starlin Castro. If nothing else, the salary conscious Marlins will be looking to get his contract off their books. Despite being in his eighth MLB season, Castro still is only 28 and under control for $11 million in 2019 with a team option of $16 million in 2020 ($1 million buyout). For every team except the Marlins this is a pretty affordable contract for a player who is still producing at a quality level. Given these circumstances, I wouldn’t be surprised if we have to wait until right up before the deadline before Brian Dozier is traded away (if he does get traded). I think buying teams will be waiting to see what happens with Scooter Gennett and Jed Lowrie before they make a move on Brian Dozier. I also think the Twins might hold off on Dozier as long as they can, hoping he might get on one of his patented hot streaks and increase his trade value before the deadline.
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I already said that if the Twins were to make a similar move this winter to the one the Cubs made for Jon Lester I would be all for it, even if the Twins finish at 71-91 this year because they will be in a similar situation to what the Cubs were in at the time they signed Lester. The Cubs had a long term plan, that centered around them beginning their competitive window in 2015. They knew this, heck everyone knew this. That is why the Cubs had the 6th best odds to win the World Series that year at 16-1, despite going 71-91 the year prior.
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I already said I think the best window for the Twins is 2020-2022. Buxton and Sano as if now will be free agents after 2021 and Berrios and Rosario are under control until 2022. Those are the four guys from the current roster that will make a difference in that span, and could be extended to lengthen that window beyond 2022 with the rest of the guys who will be coming up to support them.
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The Cubs also had what was considered an historically great farm system, nearly all of which was in AAA at the time. The Cubs also weren't trading away assets to get Jon Lester, they were spending some of their large amount of payroll flexibility that they were coming into. If the Twins want to try a similar approach this winter and sign a big name free agent with all their payroll flexibility I am all for it, but what I don't want to do is give up some of their young assets that could be very cheap and very good for the Twins for an extended period of time for a guy who just gets you a little bit closer to being competitive now, but doesn't by any means get you over the hump.
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Maybe, maybe not, but those players aren't mutually exclusive of each other. If you wait a couple years all 6 of those guys could be on the roster together. And with more an more young guys coming up, the Twins will be able to afford to sign some of the current players to extensions/support the roster with free agent moves.

