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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    There's a reason why it seems to be impossible to pry a pre-arb pitcher away from Ryan when he's GM. Despite his faults, he recognizes that it's a hell of a lot harder to find a decent starter than it is an outfielder. I still can't understand the thinking that went behind trading a multiple Cy Young winner and a pre-arb #2/3 pitcher in the same offseason. It boggles the mind.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    It's a fallback spot which is why it's so under-represented in the HoF. Third is often populated by no-hit shortstops and no-field first basemen. If you can find a guy to adequately man third and hit like a first baseman, you have a very rare commodity on your hands and that guy is going to be more valuable than the equivalent corner outfielder. Third base isn't a "premium spot" but it's still more valuable than a corner outfield spot, particularly with a pitching staff that doesn't miss bats and seems content with killing as many worms as possible.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't care how good a player is, the Twins shouldn't be looking to trade for an outfielder right now. A starting pitcher, definitely. A shortstop, absolutely. A corner outfielder? No way.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Going into the season, we didn't know they'd be a 73 win team. Most of us thought they'd be a 73 win team but it wasn't a certainty at that point. I'm of the opinion that a win is a win and winning 73 games is more valuable than winning 71. Which is why I wanted to see the Twins pursue Dempster, Marcum, etc. instead of bottom-feeding with Correia. It's a long season and you never know what will happen if a couple of youngsters surprise. Will Correia positively impact the team in 2014? That's a fair question and given how many young players the Twins should be starting right now (Worley, Hendriks, etc), I'm with you that I'd rather see them getting starts right now over KC. Hey, maybe JR moves him before ST next season. Unlikely, but I certainly wouldn't mourn the loss of Correia.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Let's glue three Kevin Correias together and see what happens.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    He's better than the junk they'd be throwing out there otherwise. Again, I did not and do not like the acquisition but there's obviously value there. Winning games is value, whether it puts the team in contention or not.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not sure 1923 Babe Ruth would command those four players.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, that's not true at all. I don't like the Correia signing or even Correia himself much but let's not blow things out of proportion. Mediocre starters being paid a fair wage have value. He's on pace to pitch around 180 innings of 90 ERA+ ball. That's what $5m gets you in 2013. Not a lot but far from worthless.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    It's bad form to gloat over a bad performance and then dismiss a good one. This is how mediocre pitchers achieve mediocre stat lines. They occasionally shut down a bad team, pitch a bunch of "meh" games, and occasionally disintegrate on the mound.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Now that you bring it up, yeah, it'd be nice to see a Twins pitcher crap their pants when the Yankees weren't in town. It'd be a nice change of pace.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Puckett also played his early years in a giant pinball machine while Joe gets to play in Target Field. The AstroTurf that Puckett got to enjoy watching singles turn to doubles and doubles turn to triples was gone by the time Joe came around. There's a good chance Joe Mauer hits .360 every season if he was able to play 81 games in the turf-field Metrodome.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    He'd have a lot more RBI so yeah, I'd take those 20 GIDP. Really, GIDP don't matter much. They're a by-product of seeing a lot of runners on base.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I find it more than a little comical that someone on a message board says that a guy who just dominated a sport at the highest level in the world didn't really want it.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm curious to see a player do it any other way. I remember that time Miggy called together his teammates before game 163 and said "Climb on my back, I'm taking everybody to jail with me!". A truly inspiring sporting moment. Also, Mauer and Puckett have a career SLG difference of .011. Singles hitter, indeed.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Because he'd be cheap, could rebound, and it's not as if the Twins have anyone else ready to play first.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I have no idea who that is.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    While I know OPS stabilizes in a little less than a full season, it's hard to deny that the gulf between those two numbers is staggering. A .100 OPS difference is "meh, statistical anomaly". A .320 OPS difference is "WTF".
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    At this point, that'd probably be the smart move. The guy played too badly for too long to get anything of value for him at this point.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd be horrified if Ryan signed Santana. Thankfully, I don't think he'd do it. A good way to get the absolute worst bang for your buck possible is to sign a guy with the following ERA+ over the past five seasons: 87, 102, 111, 74, 137 On the other hand, I'd love to see him pursue Johnson or Hughes (particularly Hughes).
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I love seeing him play well but come on... It would have been nice to get some value for him in July. Sheesh.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I can agree with that. When I say "the eyeball test", I'm not referring to my eyeballs per se. If I'm skeptical of a metric, I tend to dig into scouting reports, manager comments, that sort of thing. I almost never rely on my own eyeballs as the sole measure of whether a player is good or not for the reasons you just listed. We simply don't see enough games... But that doesn't mean there aren't people out there who actually watch enough players to give a pretty good indication of whether Player A is a good or bad defender. Anyone who discards a metric entirely because they saw a highlight play two weeks ago isn't very good at parsing information. It's too easy to trick the brain into believing what you want instead of what actually happened.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not discounting pitch framing but it's very much in question how accurate it is as a whole. Is Mauer suddenly bad at catching or does the pitching staff have more influence on the metric than many would like to believe? Red flags should be raised at some of the inconsistencies we see with these various metrics. Hey, maybe Mauer isn't doing something that he did in previous seasons. That is absolutely a possibility. In the end, trusting a metric without any way to verify its accuracy is no better than blindly discarding anything more complex than OPS as new-fangled garbage. The quest is to find a good number, not just any number. As for WAR, I've thought about this quite a bit and I can't come up with a reason why it should be any different when compiled as a team stat than when it is used as a solitary player stat. Hell, it should be more accurate as a team stat given the large number of opportunities to balance out SSS variance. The fact that it outputs such bizarre numbers at times casts the metric in a pretty poor light.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Ah, that's pretty poorly labeled. Anyway, the point still stands... The Pirates are the best in baseball and they're 6.5 WAR behind the Rays. Hell, they're 3.5 WAR games behind the Orioles, despite having a much better record. I believe WAR is a pretty good metric but you can't say "ignore your eyeballs" when there are some pretty large discrepancies to account for. After all, the Angels beat the living crap out of everyone in 2012 WAR, yet managed to finish third in their own division and didn't even make the playoffs.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Nope, I'm on the totals page. FG doesn't really explain the page but as far as I can tell, that's the total for the season per team (and by position). Depth Charts » Team WAR | FanGraphs Baseball
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree in principle but it's also sketchy to trust a metric that has multiple variables without any counter-test to validate its accuracy. Sure, metrics like WAR have their value (and I use them quite often) but when that metric lists the world champs as being a mediocre or bad team when they won ~90 games in the regular season, how much stock can we put in that metric without looking for outside confirmation of accuracy? For example, right now the Pirates have the best record in baseball. According to FG, they are 18th in team WAR. Yikes.
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