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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    To be fair, "Occam's Razor" does explain the poster's argument. The simplest explanation is the most likely explanation. That's all there is to it. And yes, you'd be chastised for calling anyone on Twins Daily a "snob" because that is blatantly against forum rules. The most comical part of the "BYTO favoritism" argument is that half of the people I've seen attributed to BYTO never posted on the site. Some people assume that posters like Thrylos, Jokin, and others came from BYTO but that's not the case... They were here in the early days of Twins Daily. Considering that a LARGE portion of BYTO was banned after the migration to Twins Daily, the "favoritism" argument doesn't hold much water. I can count on my hands how many longterm BYTO posters are extremely active on TD and still have enough fingers left to form a fist.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Which is fair enough, everyone has their own definition of "dominant" or "good". But I think you're being a bit harsh on the kid, if only because he's just wrapping up his age 17 season. Those are some pretty outstanding performances from a kid who couldn't buy a pack of smokes in the US until November of 2013. We have to keep in mind that 2014 is Thorpe's age 18 season. He's over a year younger than Kohl Stewart.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Why give up a prospect for a guy like Correia when you can go get a guy like Capuano for only money? I think the "trade Correia" crowd might be taking a few things for granted. It'd be nice to see it happen, I'm just not sure it's possible at this point.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Span has a fWAR of 3.6 and 3.5 the past two years. The Nationals wanted to win now. Span did his part to help that happen, though the rest of the the team didn't live up to their potential. The Twins wanted to win in a couple of years. Meyer looks like he's going to do his part to help that happen. I still don't see a "winner" because the two teams had very different goals.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not sure it's the right explanation, either... But it's definitely in the mix of possibilities. My point is that expecting extreme regression from Mauer going into his age 31 season should not be taken as fact. There are reasons to expect regression, there are reasons to expect a little progression... And Joe isn't old enough to fall off a cliff physically if he's healthy. In short, too many variables to predict with any accuracy. The one thing I do know is that the Twins do not have enough hitters on the roster to field a competitive team unless 2-3 guys break out and play out of their damned minds in 2014.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep, which is why so many of these "projection models" are laughable. The good players regress. The bad players progress. Everyone ends up in the middle. Used in the aggregate, projection models might have some use. But on an individual basis, they're laughably bad. Mike Trout has two full seasons in MLB. He has posted an OPS of .963 and .988. He is going into his age 22 (!) season. Davenport's projection? An .871 OPS. Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter in the league. In the past four seasons, he has posted OPSes of 1.042, 1.033, .999, 1.078. He, like Joe Mauer, is entering his age 31 season. Davenport's projection? An .895 OPS. Bryce Harper is a phenom, hitting MLB at the age of 19. He has posted an OPS of .817 and .854 in his two seasons. He is entering his age 21 (!!) season. Davenport's projection? .816. Another regression candidate. Used individually, these projection models are more than inaccurate. They're broken and nonsensical.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    It's possible that Mauer has changed his approach, leading to more strikeouts. You're assuming that this is a natural effect of aging or the loss of skill... Yet as Mauer's K rate has increased, his LD% has increased along with it. This leaves open the possibility that Mauer is intentionally changing his approach and accepting more strikeouts as a result. Mauer LD%: 2012: 25.0% 2013: 27.7% Career: 23.5% Mauer K%: 2012: 13.7% 2013: 17.5% Career: 11.1% There's a chance that Mauer is regressing. I am fully open to that being the case and no matter what happens, his 2013 BABIP is unlikely to be repeated, which is a minor cause of concern. Then again, any increase in LD% is likely to correspond with an increase in BABIP. But at this point, I remain unconvinced that his increased strikeouts are a problem, particularly if he stays healthy (and stronger) after a move to first base. Mauer posted the third best slugging percentage of his career last season and his best since moving to Target Field. While it's impossible to say with certainty at this point, there is a good chance that Mauer is intentionally changing his approach and the LD%, K%, and SLG are all linked to this new approach.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    You said "the most optimistic projections have him Josh Willingham has ~450 career PAs at DH. In other words, about 2/3rds of a season. Over 150 of those PAs came in 2013, a year he could barely swing a bat due to injuries. Come on. No MLB player is a .900 OPS guy in the field and a .700 OPS DH. Using his DH stats are completely irrelevant and smells a lot like cherry-picking to suit a point. Feel free to argue that Willingham will not rebound. It's certainly a possibility. But to use his DH stats to indicate that he can't hit because he's not playing in the field? Nah, man. That's completely illogical.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    If the Twins can't find a DH that OPSes over .700, that is a massive failure. If Willingham DHes, that number should be well over .700.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    This mirrors how I feel about Drew, really. I lean toward signing him but it won't break my heart if they don't... But I really doubt Florimon is going to be an adequate shortstop. I expect little to no improvement from him. If the Twins are going to shore up the position, it will have to be from Escobar (almost as unlikely as Florimon) or Santana (still pretty unlikely).
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. The question was basically calling Law an idiot/incompetent for not putting his pet player on the list. I don't see why people get down on Law for responding in kind, especially given Law's history. If the person had submitted "I see Escobar is not on the list, could you elaborate why?", I highly doubt he would have received that response. If you start shouting at the guy with the microphone, you shouldn't be surprised if he unloads on you right back and makes you look like an ass.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, I don't know. Part of Keith Law is his personality. Sometimes, I find it grating. Other times, I find it humorous. It has always been part of who he is as an analyst and with that personality comes comments like the one he made about Escobar. He's an opinionated dude and stands by his statements from what I've seen. I don't really care if he's a little uppity about it.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    In the case of Jason Kubel, sure, I think that agreement applies. But in the case of Jason Bartlett, a guy that hasn't played an MLB game in nearly 24 months? Probably not so much. And if it does exist, it shouldn't.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not sure the allusion of "lazy high school kid" and "one of the best in the world, playing at the highest level of competition" makes much sense.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    After receiving homer questions like that one for the 10,000th time, I imagine that it's hard to resist giving clown answers in return. Fans tend to overrate their own prospects without having the slightest clue what else is out there. I'd probably get snippy after receiving that type of question over and over again, just like Law.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Span was a nice acquisition for the Nats. He posted a .707 OPS and a 2.4 WAR. He was a fine player and was not the reason for the Nats stumbling in 2013... That was on everybody else, not Denard. It was a good trade for both teams... But it looks like it's going to work out a little better for the Twins because the Nats stumbled last year. Again, not Span's fault.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    If Turner is the BPA available to the Twins in next year's draft, pick him up. But MLB roster decisions should not be made based on a draft that hasn't happened yet. If you think Florimon is a "good enough" stop-gap, so be it... But planning 3-4 years out and basing decisions on players that aren't even under your control is a good way to be a really bad team for a really long time... or in perpetuity, really.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    That's a huge understatement. Keeping Drew in Boston over Bogaerts would be like retaining 2013 Trevor Plouffe so you could keep 2015 Miguel Sano in the minors. Drew's ability has very little to do with the Sox' qualifying offer. It has everything to do with Xander Bogaerts' ability.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    BTW, this problem isn't caused by an *actual* virus. You are safe to navigate Twins Daily. It's an ad that wants you to believe you are at risk for infection to drive clicks. Still horrible, not actually dangerous. But don't click on the ad.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Can one of you grab a screenshot and email it to me? I can't get the error to replicate on my iOS devices. brock.beauchamp@twinsdaily.com
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Hicks began switch-hitting in high school.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I just disabled one network's advertisements and it's not appearing after multiple refreshes. Please confirm that the dialogue box is no longer appearing on your mobile devices (and if you're getting desktop pop-ups, that those are ALSO disabled). If that was the cause, one of our ad networks is going to be getting a nasty email in 3... 2... 1...
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I just tested it on my Nexus 7 and saw the issue. I will look into it tonight.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    After the catastrophe that was 2013, I don't blame him. Sometimes, the best "fix" for a problem is to sit back and reflect on it for a bit. Continuing to hammer your head against the wall isn't a good solution.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, I was on this board, which has mixed feelings about everything right down to what day it is today. If you ask around I'm sure you'll find someone who has very strong feelings about the Julian calendar.
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