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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. All that for about 80 innings of Soria (he pitched all of 11 innings for Detroit after the trade last season). Uh, no thanks.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd start with internal options as well, including the bullpen. If I was GM, I'd have some combination of the following players on the Minnesota roster within the next couple of weeks: Pitchers: AJ Achter Lester Oliveros DH/OF: Oswaldo Arcia Kennys Vargas C: Josmil Pinto In my opinion, the smartest option for the Twins right now is to give internal players a shot first, let them play for 4-6 weeks, and then see what you need at the deadline. I think it's a bit presumptuous and reckless to start giving away players for a guy like Chapman when you have Achter and Oliveros dominating in Rochester (not to mention Burdi later in the season if he turns it around). Before you try to acquire players and fill holes (giving up valuable players in the process), dig into your own organization and see if you can get a "good enough" solution at the minimum. If that doesn't pan out, then look outside the org.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Where did I say they shouldn't make the team better? You're putting words in my mouth, Mike. It's pretty clear that I'm fine with improving the team - obviously - but it seems to me that if you want to improve a team, you shore up the areas where improvement will be most pronounced (say, replacing a .530 OPS SS) before you go for broke on a reliever. And right now, close to half the lineup is below average and some of it is way below average.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    He's under team control through 2018. No contract.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    That's my point, really. In no way am I claiming that Chapman is anything less than a stellar pitcher that would help the team over the next 1.5 seasons. But the price compared to the potential help he provides on a team with some pretty glaring fundamental flaws - SS, C, CF, LF, bullpen - doesn't make sense from a baseball standpoint. For the price of Chapman, maybe even less, you can probably get JJ Hardy. Who is the bigger upgrade? The guy who pitches one inning every second or third day or the SS who grades out well defensively and will probably end the season with a 100-ish OPS+? Never mind that the SS (who is better defensively) will be replacing a .530-ish OPS shortstop. Not that I'm suggesting the Twins pursue Hardy - personally, I'd either promote Pinto and get it over with or go find a better backstop - but it's a valid comparison of price vs. potential improvement of the team in the short-term. If the Twins were a borderline elite team with few holes and Chapman turns them into the toast of the league, I might feel differently about it.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    There you go.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Pinto has been in a rut lately and as long as he's still catching regularly in Rochester, I'm okay with that... Provided the Twins believe he can become a competent catcher at the MLB level and continues to show improvement, which is something we can't see in a stat line. I don't get the Vargas/Arcia thing. I just don't.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Arcia is still hitless in four games at Rochester. If this keeps up for a few more days, I have to believe Vargas will pass him in the pecking order.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    "Less talented" can mean a lot of things when you're comparing the player to someone who has probably been the best reliever in baseball over the past few seasons. In this case - maybe I didn't make this clear enough - it means "someone pretty good at baseball but not elite". My later Denard Span example is a good representation of that player. And again, I'm not advocating the Twins to go out and get a starter. It was merely an example of how a reliever, no matter how good, has a limited impact on the season.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    While hardly the defining metrics to use in this example, both DRS and UZR agree with this analysis. So does my own personal eye test. Santana might become the better shortstop in time but right now, I feel Escobar is the superior defender. Combine that with Santana's "lord have mercy" .368 OPS over the past 28 days and I think the decision is pretty obvious. I'm all for playing the kids whenever possible but the Twins are vying for first place. They need to go with the steadier hand in the short term and let Santana work out his issues in Rochester, even if it's only for a few weeks. Besides, it's not like Eddie is some old man stealing a roster spot. He's 26 years old, coming off a season where he played steady - albeit unspectacular - defense and posted an OPS of 101 in 465 PAs.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Ish. While I don't disagree with most of the article, that analysis is flawed to the point where you have to question if Cameron has even glanced at the Twins' roster in the past eight weeks.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Is a closer actually more valuable than an eighth inning guy, especially one who occasionally steps in during the seventh inning with men on base? Without solid numbers backing up the claim, you'd have a hell of a time convincing me a closer is more valuable than the guy I just described.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Then you don't trade Arcia to the NL. You don't decrease the value of a player based on the other team's needs. You set a fair value for that player based on his production, age, and potential. If he isn't a good fit for the target team, you don't trade the guy. That kind of thinking is what brought us the glorious Capps for Ramos trade in 2010.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Ditto.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Also, it's mildly humorous that people keep using the word "middling starter" to refute my point, yet my original quote actually said this: Somebody find the word "middling" in that post and get back to me.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    You're the first person to bring up WAR in this thread. But in doing so, you kinda made my point for me. Chapman is a 3 WAR player. That's pretty good. Over the past 3 1/2 years, Denard Span has averaged a little over 3.5 WAR per season. He was traded straight up for Alex Meyer, yet you just claimed it would take much more than Meyer and Arcia - two top 100 prospects - to pry Chapman away from the Reds. Reliever values are inflated for what they bring the team. Yes, they pitch important innings but no matter how important the innings, they still only pitch 1 in 20 team innings. Unlike a position player, they are one-sided. They pitch defense for an inning. They have no offensive value. Under those restrictions, there is a limited influence one can have on the game. It doesn't matter how good you are as a pitcher, if you only pitch 1 in 20 innings and don't swing a bat, your overall influence on the game isn't going to compare to a good position player. That seems kinda like common sense to me, not advanced analytics. The Nationals got three years of cost-controlled Denard Span for Alex Meyer. If the Twins can't get 1.5 years of non cost-controlled Aroldis Chapman for considerably less than 2011 Alex Meyer, the Reds should be laughed out of the room.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, no kidding. Trolpo and Fro were the biggest losses of the migration.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Ell Oh Ell.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    It was an example of how value translates to the field, not a specific request that the Twins go get a starter. Relievers are just bad value because they have so little impact on a season. No matter how good a reliever is, they only pitch one in 20 (!) innings.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Whatever Aroldis will cost, it's too much for a guy who pitches 70 innings. He's a fantastic reliever, there's no doubt about that... But for the price of Chapman, you can pick up a less-talented starter or position player who will have more of an impact because they either play every game or have overwhelming control of a game outcome every fifth day. It'd be great to have him but even if he pitches zeroes for the entirety of the season, it's unlikely he'll return the value you paid for him.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    That's possible but when combined with his other metrics, I have hope that his approach will net results at some point, hopefully the near future.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, that was eye-roll worthy of the producers. It was the polar opposite of how Whedon baited-and-switched Hawkeye in Age of Ultron. That was a clever trick, using the audience's meta knowledge to lead them astray and then drop the hammer on them.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    There's no "maybe" about it. Pelfrey is one of a handful of guys (maybe 5-6) that have directly contributed to the 30-19 record. I don't care of Pelfrey turns back into Bad Mike in his next start. You roll the dice and take a chance here that you've captured lightning in a bottle.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Who cares about selling high when the Twins are in first place? That should be the furthest thing from our minds.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    In future years, I hope a WC spot is a letdown. In 2015, it's not a letdown.
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