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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Where we differ is whether one can define this as a "good season" in context of the rest of baseball. Good for the Twins after 2011-2014? Absolutely. It's a resounding success for the Twins. Good compared to the rest of baseball? Eh, maybe not so much. The Twins were +13 in May and are -7 outside of May. I don't think the team should punt the season by any means but expending valuable resources in a season where I'd easily put 5-6 AL teams ahead of them isn't a sound strategy for the long-term viability of this franchise. If the deal doesn't cost much, great. If the deal helps in 2016 and beyond, great. Expensive rentals? To prop up this entirely mediocre team? No thanks.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    While I think this is a great move by Toronto for obvious reasons, I worry Tulowitzki will decline more quickly than necessary by playing 81 games on turf. It's the right move because Toronto absolutely hosed the Rockies but it's not the optimal result for Tulo.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Also known at "roughly double the haul needed to acquire Troy Tulowitzki".
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Good for the Royals, good for the Twins. The Royals aren't going to have much left in the farm when the dust settles. Which is fine because this is their time to make a run at the prize. It's also good for the Twins because a depleted Royals farm weakens the division going forward.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Fangraphs is a bit closer but the difference is still evident: Tulowitzki: 10 MLB seasons. 6 seasons of 5+ fWAR Reyes: 13 MLB seasons. 4 seasons of 5+ fWAR It should also be noted that the last time Reyes was a truly good player was 2011, his age 28 season (and was injured/mediocre the previous two seasons). The majority of his value was skewed very early in his career during his ages 23-25 seasons. On the other hand, Tulowitzki was 5+ WAR the past two seasons, ages 28-29.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    The problem with all of that is it assumes the player sticks at a premium position. If Tulowitzki can't stick at SS, he moves to 3B or even 1B and gives marginal value. If Reyes can't stick at SS - and he's already past that point - he's... not valuable at all, really.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    It's really not. Tulowitzki: 10 MLB seasons. 4 seasons of 6-7 rWAR 2 seasons of 5-6 rWAR Reyes: 13 MLB seasons. 2 seasons of 5-6 rWAR 2 seasons of 4-5 rWAR
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    He may decline similarly but he was a better player to start so it doesn't sting that badly.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    The Johan deal wouldn't have been that bad had the Twins done one of two things: 1. Kept Gomez 2. Kept Hardy for both years of control Either would have been an underwhelming, but respectable, return for Johan Santana. I'm not sure the Rockies will be able to match even that kind of return, especially not when they had to take the ass-end of a bad Reyes contract to do it.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I haven't even gotten to the player profile of each guy. Reyes is the type of player that screams DO NOT WANT the moment he starts edging toward 30. He's not disciplined. His contact rate is middling. His power is good but not awesome. His main asset is speed. When speed goes, it goes in a hurry and it never returns. Jose Reyes is a bad player if he can't run and can't play shortstop. On the other hand, Tulowitzki has great power. Decent contact ability. Great discipline. Those players, even when they diminish slightly, can be hidden at third or first and not embarrass the team. They also tend to mature more gracefully, barring injury. Power is the last skill to go and discipline doesn't go away until all the other skills are completely shot. If I'm paying a guy $20m a year from age 30-35, I choose Tulowitzki 14 out of 10 times.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    They don't need to escape the worst part of Tulo's contract because they suckered the Rockies into taking the worst part of a more expensive contract to a worse player. That's a net win any way you look at it.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    The difference you're missing is that both players receive elite pay but only one of them is still elite. I'd rather take four years of the elite player, knowing that they're probably going to decline in years 3/4, than take two years of the formerly elite player, who is full-swing into that decline phase. In Player As case, you're taking the ass-end of a long-term contract and getting minimal production for it. In Player B's case, you're taking the front-end of the contract knowing that you're also getting the ass-end of it... but that's okay because at least you're getting good production at some point of the deal. The Jays got the best part of Reyes' contract. The front half. They moved the horrible back half of the contract (when players almost never perform to their pay grade) to the Rockies in trade and I'm still not sure what kind of black voodoo magic it required to get the Rockies to sign off on that deal.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah. Sano by himself is worth more than everybody the Rockies got for Tulo.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Cameron has a good take on this: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/troy-tulowitzki-the-blue-jays-and-upgrading-strengths/ This seemed pretty damning from the Rockies' perspective: "In terms of prospect value, these two look fairly similar to the two primary pieces the Reds got in exchange for Cueto. If the third prospect in the deal is the least valuable of the trio, then it may very well be that the Blue Jays paid less to get Tulowitzki than the Royals paid to get their rent-an-ace."
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I mean, he's not a bad piece to have in the system but as the centerpiece for Tulo? WTF? Seriously, I'm still in shock right now. I can't believe that's what it took to get Tulo from the Rockies. I can come up with multiple ways the Twins beat that offer without giving up a single piece from the MLB team or Jose Berrios. It's ****ing insane. Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, Oswaldo Arcia. That's a better haul than what they got. Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, Max Kepler. That's a much better haul. I just can't even.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    If I was a Rockies fan, I'd be in a blind rage right now. Talk about half-assing the entire situation. I think we look back at this deal in ten years and say "this is why the Rockies were terrible for the past decade".
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    No, but this is Hoffman's B-R page. It's not just Kiley. Just for laughs, here's Kohl Stewart.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Reyes is owed way too much money. If they get a top 100 prospect, it'll be below 80 on the list. Nobody is going to pay much for Jose Reyes, not after the Jays got Tulo for what they did and set the market price for shortstops. Can you imagine the laughter from the other side of the phone if Bridich asks a GM for a better player than Hoffman in trade for Reyes? Bridich shot himself in the foot by selling Tulo so low. Even if a GM needs a SS, they're not going to give up a 30-40 range prospect after Tulo returned a guy in the 70s.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    He'd get my vote.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Ditto. I think there's a good chance they are forced to either give Reyes away or sit on his contract until the offseason.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    He's somewhat highly thought of but he's closer to Kohl Stewart than Kyle Gibson. Unless the prospect is a blue-chipper, a competent cost-controlled guy like Gibson is more valuable (never mind that Gibson has looked more than competent of late).
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    If you see it again, let me know if it's the first, second, or third ad slot. They're all running different networks.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    McCutchen will end his age 28 season with ~38-ish career WAR. Anyone who wouldn't take that from Buxton is insane.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Not to mention that Gibson is quite a bit more valuable than what the Rockies got from the Jays. No matter how you view Gibson's past six weeks, he's more valuable than a 80-ish prospect who isn't missing bats in AA.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree but I think small moves should be made to shore up the biggest deficiencies. At the very least, you give Gibson, May, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, et al a chance to play meaningful games through the end of the season. That's worth giving up a few 20-ish level prospects by itself. And then there's the increased fan interest side of the equation, which is worth a hell of a lot of money to the Twins. Two months ago, they were trailing 2014 attendance by 4-5,000 per game. They're set to pass average 2014 attendance during this homestand. That's worth millions by itself.
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