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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    This. I think the Hunter/Pelfrey stuff is kinda laughable.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, it should. The Orioles just lost four games in a row, two or three of which they should have won based on statistical probability. That's a huge variance that will cause fluctuation in the chances for both teams, especially considering head to head matchups where gains or losses are absolute. AND let's not forget that while the Twins were shelling Baltimore, Toronto was shelling the Angels. The Twins started this series behind three teams. They ended it behind one. That is going to cause a big change in percentage chances. No model can predict aberrant behavior, which is what happened over the past few days. Toronto should not have swept the Angels at home, Minnesota should not have swept the Orioles at home. With a finite number of games remaining in the season, those statistically improbable head to head matches are going to impact postseason chances.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, pretty much. Isn't it nice to see a team that looks so intimidated by the Twins they do whatever it takes a lose a game? After the Yankees series, Twins fans needed that.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    100% agreed. It makes no sense for Sano to take a ten year deal. If he hits FA, he'll want to do it at 29/30, not 32/33.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    One can't cite A-Rod without referencing career performance. If he doesn't cheat, it's likely no one is citing A-Rod and 700 home runs at all. Also, Sano is not A-Rod, a guy who was already one of the best players in MLB at age 20.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I question whether anyone has 700 home run talent in today's game without cheating. This isn't a game played only by white farmers against pitchers who throw 300 innings a season anymore. Even Hank Aaron wasn't some preternatural masher, he merely played very good baseball consistently for a really, really, REALLY long time.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    BTW, it looks almost inevitable the Twins are going to be chasing just one team for the second WC spot at the end of the day. For all intents and purposes, they control their destiny.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    If anyone thinks this list is precise in any way, that's kinda silly... But it's almost certainly more accurate than eye-balling the standings. Just because the Twins went out and did something completely unexpected it doesn't invalidate the numbers. Teams do unexpected things all the time and while the numbers are kinda fun to watch, one has to keep their expectations in check because, after all, "that's why they play the games".
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, it really should. The Orioles were one of the teams ahead of the Twins and fighting for the same (lone) playoff spot. The Orioles are a very good home team. The Twins are a very bad road team. It was a four game set. I think you're really underrating just how unexpected it was for the Twins to head to Baltimore and win four games in a row. As "mediocre" as the Orioles may be, one would expect them to beat the Twins in a neutral setting (the Orioles have been the better team this season) and one would expect them to trounce the Twins at home, most likely taking three games and at worst settling for a split. Instead, the Twins entered the series 3.5 games behind the Orioles and are now 0.5 games ahead of them. That leaves just two teams to leap to reach the postseason instead of three. Sweeping a head-to-head matchup against a team well in front of you is going to greatly impact the chances of reaching the postseason.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Win 63. Game #: 2015: 124 2014: 149 2013: 143 2012: 152 2011: 162 And that's all she wrote for the 2011 squad. The 2015 Twins are now a full 19 games ahead of the next closest team of the past four years. In 2013, the Twins went 3-14 over their final 17 games. Keeping up with this thread has reminded me just how awful these teams were down the stretch. They were all basically unwatchable.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    At this point, can we say: The Yankees are to the Twins what the Twins are to the Orioles.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    OMFG. For once, that didn't happen when the Twins were in the field.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    True.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Nice swing, Jones. http://orig04.deviantart.net/05af/f/2013/220/5/4/roflcopter_gif_by_solaris_92-d6h7qbu.gif
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Perkins rearing back and hurling it to the plate... ...at 92mph. Not good.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Gah, Eddie is prone to some pretty awful plays.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Good thing the Twins have an off day tomorrow.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    That happens when a bad road team unexpectedly beats a good home team three times in a row. After all, a projection model can only predict expected events... The Twins besting the Orioles three times in Baltimore was certainly not expected, particularly after the New York implosion that immediately preceded this series.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    This Sano kid might have a future in the game.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm sure that plays a huge part in the percentage gap. The Twins play Tampa on the road. The Twins are a terrible road team. Tampa is a decent home team. Any good predictive model would take that into account.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't see Sano being able to rock a .340 batting average - which then allows him to rock a .440 OBP - which prevents him from being this generation's Miggy. Superstar? Yeah, maybe. Miggy? No, probably not. If Sano in his prime can post something close to Thomas' career line - .300/.400/.550 - I'd be thrilled.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, this. The simulation takes into account past play and future schedule. Yes, it is mathematically possible for KC to miss the postseason. No, that will not happen. To miss the postseason, they'd have to go something like 8-32 (and they still might win the division with that record). These simulations aren't about pure mathematic possibilities, they're more grounded in reality than that. Hence the 100% chance to make the postseason.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins have taken what started out as a miserable road trip and are now 3-3.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Which guy has almost double the career WAR but is six years younger? I will give you just one guess. It amazes me how Minnesotans continue to underrate what Joe Mauer brought to the team for a decade. This shouldn't even be a question people ask.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, exactly. Maybe it's not too late but the Twins are fighting to catch the remaining playoff spot (the second WC spot). A month ago, they owned the first WC spot.
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