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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Fangraphs projected the Tigers to win 84 games in 2015, I believe. *shrugs* I don't put much stock in projections. For young teams, there are crazy variables that cannot be accurately measured. For old teams, there is a higher probability one or more older players won't just underperform, a few might get injured and miss most/all of the season. Projections can estimate Cabrera will miss, say, 10 games but they certainly can't project he'll miss 120 because he's now 33 years old and not very athletic. I give younger teams the benefit of the doubt and older teams the opposite. The Twins are a young-ish team, the Tigers are not. The Twins have a lot of upside in young players both in MLB and on the farm, the Tigers do not. The Twins have wiggle room for guys like Berrios/Kepler to arrive and dominate should someone falter (in the fashion of Duffey, who basically saved 2015 for the Twins). The Tigers have to hope and pray a bunch of established veterans stay on the field because there's little untapped upside on the team and no help to be found from the farm should one or two players go off the rails.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    You seem to believe I'm giving the police and prosecution a pass. I'm not. They made mistakes and it appears they were some pretty big mistakes. The only thing I've refuted about your reasonable doubt claims is that it's basically impossible to establish whether the reasonable doubt threshold was met because the documentary didn't gloss over the prosecution's case, it skipped the prosecution's case entirely. I can't say with any kind of certainty whether reasonable doubt was met when I didn't get to see the actual presentation of the case (not even a little bit of it). And that loops us back around to the obviously slanted aspect of the documentary. Why didn't they address the prosecution's case? Why did they omit important details from the case entirely? These are reasonable questions and the documentary should have addressed them. The documentary's failure to do so makes me question other aspects of the case that were shown to us. Maybe that's unfair, maybe it's not... But if I catch someone trying to deceive me in some way, I'm going to start reviewing everything they say with skepticism (just as I view everything that came from the Manitowoc Sheriff's department with skepticism). For the umpteenth time, I don't know whether Avery is guilty. I suspect he is but that's only suspicion, not fact. The police did some, at best, unscrupulous things. Whether that was borne from malice or incompetence, I do not know. At worst, they're entirely corrupt and planted evidence. Lots of question marks, very few answers.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    That story reads like a bad crime novel. One thing that amazes me about conspiracy theories is how dramatically the theorist overestimates human intelligence/planning, foresight, and the ability to keep quiet.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I feel like I'm having a Groundhog Day moment. I'm just going to cut and paste my thoughts on the Tigers from February 2nd, 2015: Second verse, same as the first.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    I've said multiple times the Tigers might be good if things go right... But I don't believe things will go right for a team with that many 30-somethings and little help on the farm to back it up. Hence my skepticism that they'll be significantly better than they were in 2015. Will they have better luck than 2015? Sure, probably. Will it matter once you factor in the age of their best players and the loss of Price and Cespedes? Of that I'm not so sure. I don't think the Tigers will be a terrible team but I think aging will chip away at their win total through regression and/or injury.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Room 237 is completely insane and hilarious if you want to watch a silly documentary.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, so their big acquisitions offset a 74 win team's offseason losses. And then we're back to talking about whether a handful of 32-37 year old players will have bounce-back seasons or even maintain their 2015 production...
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't say "everything will go wrong", I said "it's unlikely everything will go right when you're banking on that many 30-somethings". If performance is neutral for both teams, I expect the Twins to be a handful of wins better than the Tigers (let's say 3-4 wins) because they're relying on a bunch of mid-20s players to improve, not a bunch of mid-30s players to bounce back or sustain past performance. Things "not going right" for the Twins could mean Sano still posts an .800 OPS and Buxton gets a bunch of OF time and they stall out in the 78-80 win range. Things "not going right" for the Tigers could mean they repeat last year's 74 win total. Over the course of a season, having guys like Berrios/Kepler/Burdi/Meyer as fall-back options can make a huge difference, just as Duffey made a huge difference in 2015.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Unlike Nick, I'm bearish on the Tigers, just as I was bearish on them in January of last year. Could they be decent? Sure, they certainly have the talent... But man, it's going to not only require a few 30-something guys to rebound, it's going to require a few more 30-something guys to sustain last year's performance level. I think that's a stretch. While they made a few good acquisitions this offseason, is it enough to offset the combined 7.5-ish WAR they lost in Cespedes and Price? I'm... Skeptical, to put it mildly. I don't think the Tigers are a terrible team (sub-70 wins) but I think they'll struggle to reach 75 wins unless everything goes right... And, like I said earlier, expecting everything to go right on a team full of 30-somethings is a tall order.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree, mostly. I think you're undervaluing Jepsen a bit, as he was injured for part of the season with Tampa and his velo was down. I think he's an adequate arm, maybe closer to his 2015 Twins performance than his 2015 Tampa performance. But the Twins needed at least one more sure thing in the pen. Getting zero is... frustrating, to put it mildly. Given the Twins' organization and guys like Meyer, Burdi, etc., I'm fine with picking up one more good arm and letting the prospects fight over the second open spot. But zero good arms? No, man. No.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I appreciate the fact they have enough restraint to demand a two hour film with no director's cut. More writing does not equal better writing. Example: Hobbit, The
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Apparently, two new characters were planned for the movie and their roles are being reduced to make room for more Rey, Poe, and Finn.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd move Nolasco the moment I was able to do so.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Ugh. Two years? I'd do that deal in a heartbeat.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Huh. I thought he had maybe a couple of hundred, tops. I didn't think he spent that much time in Minnesota.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Sub Polanco for Gordon and I'm much more bullish on the deal for obvious reasons.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Buxton will have to spend almost the entirety of 2016 in the minors for service time to matter.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I haven't looked it up but Bobby Kielty had to be in the Twins top 10 at the time of the trade.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Nope. No thanks. Lucroy is a question mark and Smith is a reliever. A very good reliever, yes... But a reliever none-the-less. If you want a very good reliever, go buy one. It'll cost you less than $10m a year. No way am I trading an upside shortstop prospect and a flawed upside starting pitching prospect for a potentially broken catcher and a very good reliever.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, it appears they've postponed the movie so they can write more screen time for Poe, Rey, and Finn based on the popularity of the characters in Episode VII. A reasonable sacrifice.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, this isn't going to be fixed overnight. There are 30 contracts in place - one for each team's local network - that say this is going to be a long, uphill battle to buy local baseball games without a cable connection. But it's a step in that direction. MLB is going to continue to expand their infrastructure, creating more isolated packages... Ultimately, that will lead to a cable-free solution in the future. When this all unfurls, it will happen in a hurry. We've already seen Showtime chase HBO just months after their Go announcement. A few months after that, Amazon announced Starz and a few other peripheral channels as add-ons. Soon, cable channels will begin to follow in numbers. Once the snowball starts building, it will gain momentum.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I suspect the latter. His second set of lawyers seemed at least somewhat on the ball.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Heh, yes. Same here. But Disney is a small dividend stock and I plan to hold on to it for at least five years so whatever.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    It's a good plan and I was *this close* to doing just that in 2013; made a short sale offer on a house but the bank foreclosed on it before anyone alerted them a short sale offer was in place (mind you, there was a 3-4 month gap between these two events... why'd we bail out these clowns again?). Thankfully, it didn't happen because I don't have the time to manage a rental property on top of all the other crap I do but if you have the time, it's a good way to go.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    High fives, Mike. I'm in on Disney, Netflix, and Amazon. Amazon and Netflix in particular. Patience is really the key with the market, IMO. I sat on a stagnant Amazon around $300 per share for over a year and then the damned thing doubled in 8-10 months.
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