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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Like the old saying goes: Ride 'em hard and put 'em away one year after they've died.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I think he'll get there but I'm skeptical it will be in 2016. I'd be happy with 30 homers out of a 23 year old player.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Both strategies have their merits and I'm hesitant to elevate one over the other. The Twins have scored on "good but not great" signings over the years. Guys like Kepler, Thorpe, Arcia, etc. were smart acquisitions and didn't break the bank. On the other hand, a smart team should occasionally step up and pay the likes of Sano as well. If you don't see somebody you *love* in the signing pool, I have no issues with going after 2-3 guys you really like over one big-name player. In fact, I'd argue most years the smart move is to go after the group of "like" guys because you never know when you'll strike gold. Save the big allocation money for the (somewhat) rare occasion it makes the most sense. If your scouts like the best player in the international pool so much they want you to outbid 29 other teams for his services every single year, you should probably go find new scouts because they're not scouting, they're group-thinking.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. Even if it's not luck, it may be (nearly) impossible to track. Maybe Brian Dozier is *really good* at taking home plate in certain situations (let's say a left-center gapper where he tracks the ball but doesn't have that advantage in a right-center gapper). Maybe in 2015, that situation arose four times and directly led to two wins. Maybe in 2016, that situation only occurs once in a non-critical situation and leads to zero wins. That's not luck, it's just a rare skill that only arises a handful of times a season. Or maybe Dozier's ability to do something awesome is offset by Aaron Hicks getting *really* unlucky, which negates Dozier's skill-based gains and gives the team stat an appearance of "luck neutral" when, in fact, they were unlucky. Metrics are awesome and I love the insight they give us into the game but it's hard to rely on them too much because, at best, they're somewhat incomplete. At worst, they're largely incomplete.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    It's also possible "luck" consists of multiple data points for which we are currently unable to account and, when aligned correctly, skew results way out of proportion. We assume it's luck when it could be multiple things; some repeatable, some not. It's a mistake to assume we're only missing one or two things that account for noise. It could be a handful. It could be dozens. It could be a lack of chances to exploit a particular skill (say, a baserunner taking home plate, something that drastically alters the outcome of a game). Baseball is a complicated game and I'm not sure mathematics will ever be able to explain it fully because humans seem to enjoy playing the role of monkey wrench.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd also take the under on almost all of these predictions but on the other hand, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Arcia jack 15-20 bombs in 2016 if he gets the playing time. In a full season, it wouldn't surprise me to see Oswaldo hit 25 homers if some team out there can stomach his outfield defense that often.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    He will hit between 7 and 84 home runs in 2016. Book it.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I think the Twins jump higher than 29th this season. Add a full season of May (ugh) and Jepsen to the bullpen, sprinkle in some Meyer/Burdi, add some Berrios starts... I think you have a team that's still pretty bad at missing bats but higher than a handful of other teams. I think this graph highlights how hard it is to change course in baseball. The Twins were caught with their pants on the floor in the late 2000s and only now are they seeing the fruits of changing their strategy to draft and develop players with the upside to miss bats. In no way am I defending how long it took them to realize their error, just pointing out it takes time for organizational process changes to reach MLB.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    It's possible but I refuse to turn bearish on Dozier until he actually underperforms. Some have been predicting the fall of Brian Dozier for 1500 PAs but the guy just keeps hitting. He's approaching 2000 PAs of well above average offense. I can't fully buy into "pitchers have figured him out" because if it was that easy, they would have figured him out over 1000 PAs ago. In today's game, it doesn't take long to assemble a strategy to face a hitter, particularly one who turned high-profile almost overnight. it's not as if Dozier was able to fly under the radar of opposing pitchers because the mighty Twins offense made him an afterthought in past seasons; shut down Brian Dozier in 2013-2014 and you do a pretty good job of shutting down the Twins offense. I'm not dismissing his lackluster second half performances, just pointing out that I think it's more complicated than pitchers finally building a book on the guy. One thing rarely discussed about Dozier's 2015 fade is his BABIP of .209/.260/.222 in July/Aug/Sept. What does that mean? Not sure but it could easily be chalked up to some pretty bad luck. His K rate didn't change appreciably during those months, nor did his walk rate.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Definitely. I assume you're talking about Wicked Wort; I haven't checked it out yet. I'm sure I'll make it out there once biking season begins again (it's an easy bike ride from my house, a good thing if I plan to drink).
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I live near both of these places and they're great. Victory is only 10 minutes from downtown. For some reason, people fail to recognize how close North (even the far reaches) are from downtown. I can walk out my door and be at Target Field in eight minutes.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh yeah, I get that part. I agree, teams that are expected to be terrible can easily skew the curve.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    True, but part of that could be a chicken and egg situation. If you run through more than six starters without org depth, it's hard to compete.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I wonder what the average number of starts missed from >6 starters are for MLB. I'd imagine it's higher than 10-ish. I don't think it's really fair to remove Santana from the Twins' number. He missed 16-ish starts and if not for the Twins' relatively deep farm system, that would have been quite a blow to the season. Which is why depth matters (as you pointed out with Berrios). Without Duffey, the Twins fade from the postseason picture in July, maybe August, at the latest.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I've only gotten into scotch over the past few years. I always liked it but I didn't know much about it. Liking scotch requires a few things: - You like seriously strong liquor - You like drinking liquor straight - You like spending too much money It's not for everyone. I happen to like the taste of whisky and the varieties available. I rarely, if ever, mix whisky. It doesn't matter if it's scotch, bourbon, Japanese, Canadian, Irish, or whatever. And if you don't like drinking straight liquor, then it's not likely scotch is your bag (nor any aged liquor, really). Some people claim to like scotch and soda but I think it's horrendous. If you're interested in trying some milder scotches, I can steer you toward some reasonable bottles that won't invert your face after sipping the scotch.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    This is how I see it playing out as well. A lot of posturing happening now but that will fade as the Republicans realize they've been dealt a losing hand. There's no way they win over the pubic by blocking Obama from doing his job.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    We probably have close to the same projections but I tend to pad young teams with a few positive wins and knock old teams for a few negative wins. All it takes is one of Buxton, Berrios, Arcia, etc. to break in the right direction and the Twins are plus 2-3 wins, which gets my projection right around .500. I think it's likely at least one of them will pleasantly surprise and that's not counting the potential gains from full seasons of Duffey, Sano, Rosario (though I think he'll falter), Park, etc. In 2015, the Twins had a Pythag of 81-81 and a BaseRuns of 73-89. That's my baseline from which to work. Carry over the 2015 roster to this season and I think they're a bit better, maybe 4-5 wins better in BaseRuns (not a lot of regression to find outside of Rosario and Duffey... maybe Sano slips a bit but a full season of Miguel is still a net gain). Add in a few pleasant surprises from a solid farm and I think they're a few wins better than that, which brings them at or near .500. But really, it's hard to project this team because there are so many question marks. I can see anyone projecting this team for 76 wins or 88 wins depending on perspective.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't really get the movement to nominate Obama to the Supreme Court. While I generally like the guy (not really what he's done, more what he stands for and the man himself), I have two issues: 1. The dude needs a break. He's had the hardest job in the world for eight years. Give him a breather and let him gather himself. 2. I firmly believe that while Obama is smart and educated enough to be on SCOTUS, bench time is important. I want someone who has spent their career presiding over court cases and making tough rulings on the highest court in the country, not a politicized former President with zero bench experience. There are dozens, if not hundreds, of qualified candidates for the job. I don't want to rally around someone with zero experience simply because he has name recognition. And that's what this boils down to: name recognition. It's a continuation of a bad trend we've seen in American politics: fame and dynasty. It has led us to the point where we're considering the election of yet another Bush/Clinton president. Two families have controlled the highest seat in the land for 20 of the last 28 years (and a two-term Hillary would increase that to 28 of last 36 years). There are loads of smart, qualified people in this nation. Stop giving all the jobs to people whose names we recognize. We complain about everything always staying the same yet eagerly jump at the chance to double-down on everything staying the same.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    While we're on the subject, is there a truly good scotch bar in the TC? I have a pretty solid collection of scotches - about a dozen bottles now - but I hate having to buy a $50+ bottle to find out if I like a scotch. By "good scotch bar", I'm talking about a place with at least 30 scotches on hand, preferably with a focus on non-Speyside varieties. Anything less than that and I've probably tasted whatever the restaurant has on hand (I've had scotches from 40-50 distilleries).
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Maybe that's possible but we're so far out from the concussion it seems like he'll either heal or he won't at this point.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't bet on sports but we can place a gentleman's bet on it. To be clear, I don't think the Twins will be way over .500 but I think they'll scratch their way into that territory. I personally have them at 81-83 wins.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    If Mauer can play, he should play. The danger of receiving another concussion is either low enough for him to play every day or it's too high for him to play at all. I don't see a middle ground here. But the "play well" argument is valid statement. If the team is worse with Mauer on the field on a daily basis, that needs to be a factor.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Reading baseball forums can be, though.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    God, yes, this. Projection systems seem to often chase their own tail. Young teams are undervalued because the youngsters can't be accurately projected. Old teams are overvalued because a projection can't predict a star player falling on his face. In my casual observations, there seems to be a one year drag on projections for pretty obvious reasons. I don't know how many games the Twins will win but I'd take the over on 79 and wouldn't think twice about it.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Also remember that people use the site differently. We have thousands of users who check the front page regularly but never ever visit the forums. But yeah, three articles is kinda weird.
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