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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd probably go with Murphy because he's on the 40 man roster. If Suzuki is moved in trade, then I'd consider Paulino. It's not a big deal either way but I wouldn't play a 40 man game with Paulino unless necessarily.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I fugged up the launch date of Pokemon Go and missed my opportunity. I planned to jump into Nintendo in a (rare for me) short-term move and then... Completely forgot about it. Arghblargh. Nice work, Joe.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm really excited to see how Juan Centeno does today because that's what this season has become.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    The first post recommends extending Mauer 1-2 seasons and has Grossman as the starting left fielder. I can't compete with that.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    I *hate* the notion of tanking for tanking's sake, especially at this point in the rebuild cycle. The Twins should move any player who can be traded and likely won't contribute to 2017 or even 2018. Abad, Nolasco, Suzuki, Kintzler, Plouffe, Milone, etc. The Twins should consider moving Santana, Nunez, and Dozier but only if the offer is right. You put your best young players on the field and let them play. If those players rally and assemble a competent baseball team, great. You're in a good position going into the offseason. If those young players collapse and tank the season, well okay. Now you have more information how to proceed in the offseason. This should be about your best and brightest young players in Major League Baseball, not draft picks. The draft is correlated to the performance of your young players and wishing those players to do poorly is shooting yourself in the foot.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Miguel Sano should have earned his playing time the same way Edgar Martinez... uh, "earned", his playing time. Because that worked out well for everybody involved.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    What? I literally cannot find a single defensive metric that routinely graded Plouffe below average prior to the 2016 season.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    If Gibson had been rolling for two months, I'd be more inclined to agree. Right now, I think any offer would skew on the low end of things. And that's not the time to trade a guy unless you *need* to clear roster space. Obviously, that's not the case with the Twins. And given how the Twins may want to move three other starters, adding Gibson to the mix seems like muddying the situation. If a team asks for Gibson, push them toward Santana. If a team wants to lowball a pitcher, push Nolasco or Milone on them. I don't see much benefit in adding Gibson's name to the mix today.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Boy, it's hard to get a read on Gibson. Since returning from injury, he's been decent: 8 G, 50 IP, 4.09 ERA, 40 K, 13 BB Remove the three rocky starts he had returning from injury and you get this: 5 G, 32.2 IP, 3.03 ERA, 29 K, 8 BB I don't really understand this guy. He goes on 4-8 week stretches of missing bats and then regresses for another 4-8 weeks, turning into a below average pitcher. Seeing the ERA spike up and down isn't a surprise - lots of mediocre pitchers do that - but the volatile K rate is puzzling. In April, he pitched 20 innings and struck out only 11.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    This is my take as well. Trump will win over the people he has already won over. He'll have to drastically alter his approach to bring in new people and risks alienating the people he already won in the process. And can he even alter his approach enough to win anyone over? It's not like the truly abhorrent stuff he said is years old... Some of it is only weeks old and most of it came in 2016.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Dunno, I think that knife cuts both ways. Every terrorist attack makes Hillary looks weaker. Every terrorist attack makes the GOP's deeply-knit bond to the NRA more despicable. I'm not sure which side cuts deeper but there's growing animosity toward both sides, at least what I've seen from the moderates around me.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Expecting anything more than monetary salary relief in return for Nolasco is a mistake in my opinion. If the Twins can save $7m-ish by someone taking half of Nolasco's 2017 salary, I'd call it a win and move on.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I could easily see an NL team take a flyer on Nolasco if the Twins ate a bunch of salary. There isn't much upside in Rickey but he could be a serviceable 4/5 starter on an NL team. The AL, maybe not so much.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep and yep. The Twins job is attractive but any strings attached could alienate the best candidates. Though I'm unconvinced Pohlad actually meant what he said about Molitor. It might be grandstanding to reassure players they're not under a lame duck. But Molitor is also friends with the Pohlads. It could go either way.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes, I believe that to be the case. I'm not sure how so many people have been easily fooled but it appears they have. By acting like a grungy steel worker who goes home every night at 5pm, drinks a few too many beers, watches some CSI: Miami, and maybe roughs up his wife just a little bit, Trump has convinced the masses he's one of them. The mind. It reels.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Even with the email scandal coming to a head and a convention bump, FiveThirtyEight still gives Clinton a 60% chance of winning. Once Hillary gets her bump next week, where will that number sit? 65%? 70%? Something has to drastically change for Trump to win. Sure, maybe that happens. Maybe someone tries to assassinate Trump and fails, thereby winning over sympathy votes. Maybe Clinton shows up to a debate wearing a clown costume... But those are wild variables that could go either direction and can't be predicted. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    The last Republican president to win a general election without the Hispanic vote was... George Senior, maybe? That was 1988. While I can't find solid statistics, the Hispanic population was around 6-8% at that time. Today, it's around 18%. People like to compare Bush and Trump but Bush narrowly squeaked out Florida and a few other states (I'm not going to derail with arguing whether he won at all) because he carried a large vote advantage with Hispanics. McCain lost the Hispanic vote. Romney was skewered by the Hispanic vote. And Romney's numbers with Hispanics are going to look great compared to Trump. I'm just as scared as anyone that the angry Cheeto might win... But when looking over the numbers, I don't know how it will happen unless there's an enormous bloc of white voters who will participate in 2016 but didn't participate in any election from 1992-2012. And given the changes in America since the 80s, is that even possible? I don't see how it is.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Trump can't win unless he brings people of color on board. He simply can't win enough of the white vote to carry 270 electoral votes. As it stands today, a full 33% of the American population is skewing 80+% in favor of Hillary without her lifting a finger. Now, with that said... Is there a way he bridges the gap with the Hispanic community, which will make or break him? I don't see how that happens. He has said too much, taken too polarizing a stance, to win that community. How can he possibly back off the wall and judge comments? Hillary doesn't even have to do anything, all she needs to do is run footage of his primary speeches. Trump cannot win New York. He cannot win California. Hell, he can't win the west coast, period. Unless something drastically changes (namely, Hillary doing something incredibly stupid, which is unlikely given her polish and craftiness), I simply do not see a path to a Trump presidency.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    It's an interesting trend that puts conservatives in an increasingly untenable position going forward. The free market is all fun and games when business interests align with the Republican Party on taxes and lax regulation... But businesses are turning on the party because social legislation is bad for business. Exclusion is bad for business. Republicans have been put in the position of cheering on Citizens United and jeering when things don't go their way, yelling "businesses should stay out of politics!" As an interesting side note, a few weeks ago I did a check on the richest Americans. Out of the top ten, EIGHT are pretty staunchly liberal. The Republican Party's contradictory mission statement has reached the breaking point. It will be interesting to see how they adapt. They're pro-business until they're not. They're all about "freedom" until they're not. While Trump has (slightly) bridged some of these gaps on the LBGT community and abortion, he has created more problems as well (immigration, religious freedom, etc). The party is broken. Completely and utterly broken.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't want to start a new thread for this but it's worth a conversation. The NBA has moved the 2017 All-Star Game out of Charlotte in protest of NC's transgender bathroom law. To say this is a bold move is an understatement. In the modern era, has a sports league moved their ASG for any reason, much less a law recently passed in a state? Crazy. Good for the NBA. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/22/sports/basketball/nba-all-star-game-moves-charlotte-transgender-bathroom-law.html
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I think we know A LOT more about the baseball side than we do the business side. We see the draft. We see how other teams build rosters and use their prospects. We see the free agents signed by the Twins and other teams for comparable money. We have hundreds of thousands of data points to quantify players. We have hundreds of writers who examine the Twins either casually or daily, each approaching the situation from a different perspective. There's nothing close to that on the business side of things. To put it in different terms, I work in the tech industry. I can tell you where Apple is going right with the iPhone and wrong with the iPad. I use their products and the competitions' products. I have a solid understanding of they devices and how they work. But I have no idea if Apple's expenditures on R&D is adequate. I have no idea if their recent buy-in to the Chinese Uber competitor was a good idea. I don't know which divisions are well run and which are poorly run, sucking up resources. All that stuff is under the hood. Their products aren't under the hood.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    You misread my post. I said: "Let DSP go be good at the things DSP seems to be good at." Target Field is nice. It improves every year. Beyond that, I can't really evaluate the business side of the Twins because there isn't a lot of information to evaluate from an outside perspective. The TV deal is questionable but the Twins have a lot going against them on the television side of things: the MSP market has a crap cable subscription rate. Without numbers in hand, I can't criticize their management of the Fox Sports contract because it's pure speculation. The Twins seem to think DSP is good at the business side of his job. Absent any evidence the Twins are a badly-run operation from a non-baseball perspective, I'll defer to them on the subject.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    No, I don't think the Twins can catch the Sox and I think the Twins will have a decent second half. I predict the Twins will pick fourth or fifth in next year's draft. They might pass one AL team and a few NL teams will likely collapse as the season progresses. But then again, the Twins might collapse if they move Nunez, Abad, Suzuki, and Santana. Hard to get a read on things before the deadline.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Okay, finally got it to trigger for me. Thanks for the heads up. I commented out the ESPN code, hopefully they'll fix it soon and I can put it back.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Mobile or desktop?
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