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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think it's only the young guys who need help. Gibson was atrocious last season. Hughes was injured. Santiago often teeters between competency and full-blown trainwreck mode. Santana is the only guy on the staff whom I'd trust to call his own pitches and throw to a robot behind the plate. One guy out of 12. Good framing and smart pitch-calling benefits everyone on the staff. Now, is Gimenez better enough at those skills to supplant Murphy on Opening Day? Dunno, that's a high bar to reach, as Murphy is generally regarded as being adequate at those things. To me, this is a situation where I have to trust that Falvey and Levine know a hell of a lot more about baseball than I do. I see their reasoning but I'm not convinced it's the right move.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    To me, the question is "should the Twins care?" They tried to "fix" Liriano and he was a terrible pitcher off and on for several years because of it. When you control a guy's arb seasons, how much should you care whether he's pitching when he's 32 years old? I'm not saying the Twins should go all Dusty Baker on their young arms but I'm not sure they should sacrifice cheap, plus-plus seasons to ensure the pitcher can go somewhere else at age 29 and make a bunch of money.* *of course, it's in every team's best interest to try to keep a guy healthy using technology and modern practices
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I appears the argument isn't whether Gimenez benefits Garver or Murphy, it's whether Gimenez benefits the pitching staff. I'm not sold on Gimenez making the 25 man roster but after lamenting the defensive acumen of this team for the past several seasons, I can't complain too much if the front office tries hard to fix that problem, even at the expense of offensive firepower.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep, that's kinda my point. Ten runs is worth roughly one win, IIRC. The Twins could revert to 2014 pitching levels and still slide into the low 70s in wins, provided the offense repeats their numbers from 2016. If you expect offensive/defensive/pitching progression past that point, they could settle somewhere in the mid-70s wins. There's a reason why most betting lines are starting in the low- to mid-70s while projection systems have the team as high as 80 wins. I don't buy the 80 win number but 74-ish wins is pretty easy to see with this roster.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Damn it all. Man, the Twins keep drawing the short straw with these TJ surgeries for position players.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    *winces* Seriously, how are we even talking about these subjects? Does this team want to score runs or not? Dozier should be third in this lineup, chased by Sano. If things change during the season and Kepler, Rosario, Buxton, etc. step forward, then you make the appropriate changes and shuffle guys around.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't understand how this is even a topic for consideration. Mauer is the natural second hitter in this lineup. Hell, he may be the best option to lead off, too. But not third. No way. Third in the lineup needs, at minimum, doubles power and Mauer lost his doubles ability some time ago. He's purely an on-base hitter at this point and needs to be at the top of the lineup because the Twins lack on-base hitters.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    But I'm not really assuming anything, I'm simply playing historical odds to maximize roster efficacy, which is what the Twins should be doing, too. Robbie Grossman is one guy while Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler consume two lineup spots. Even if you're starting Grossman against every lefty starter the Twins face - which is what the Twins should do out of the gate - that means either Rosario or Kepler is still in the field against that same lefty. Which means you'll get to see both of those guys take plenty of hacks against LHP even if Grossman is also in the field.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    No, but given how the vast majority of lefty hitters are bad at hitting LHP, it doesn't take much to predict that Grossman is a good platoon candidate for Kepler/Rosario. Everyone here realizes that one of the smoothest, most contact-heavy left-handed hitters of this generation, Joe Mauer, has a .150 OPS left/right split, right? This is kinda Baseball 101 stuff, guys. Even Barry-freaking-Bonds had a .100 OPS left/right split for his career and pitchers literally cowered in fear when he came to the plate.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    It varied by year and I didn't see a place to view career MiLB splits. It ranged from .025 OPS to .200 OPS from the years I scanned. I'd be surprised if Rosario hit within 100 OPS points in his lefty/righty splits when his MLB career is all said and done.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, but every starter was so bad after Santana that three league average performances is still a huge net gain over 2016.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Which is why I also pointed out they were a 66 win team by pythag.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Caused by his (likely) aberrant 2015 slash line where he posted an OPS against lefties that was .085 higher than his OPS against righties. Lefty hitters who hit lefty pitching better than right-handed pitching are basically unicorns. Lefty hitters who can even come close to hitting lefties as well as righties are extremely rare. Rosario's 2016 OPS was 150 points lower against lefties than righties. That's far more likely to continue than not. Much better left-handed hitters than Rosario have posted more extreme splits than that (such as Justin Morneau's career 200 point lefty/righty split).
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd be disappointed in that as well but I don't believe Castro is the guy in Garver's way, at least not right now. Gimenez and Murphy are likely the guys getting in the way of Garver playing in Minnesota. Castro doesn't really have anything to do with it and probably won't until those other two guys get their chances in some capacity.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I will be immensely disappointed if at least one of Berrios and May is not in the rotation on Opening Day. And I hope it's May because once he's in the bullpen, he's in the bullpen for the season. Hard to move a guy back into the rotation without a demotion to Rochester first. And if Berrios is in Rochester to start the season, he better be back in Minnesota by late May because you know at least one of those starters is going to light himself on fire to start the season. And Gimenez will be here the entire season (provided things work out), which means he may be catching several other young guys who come up during the season. Like I said, I'm not terribly keen on the idea but I get it.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    No.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins were -12 wins in sequencing last year and -7 wins in pythag. Unless we expect the Twins to be horrible underperformers a second year running (after being fortuitous overperformers the year before), the 59 win total from 2016 should be mostly disregarded. From a pure run-scoring and prevention standpoint, they were a mid-60s win team last season. From a sequencing standpoint, they were a low 70s win team. Any kind of improvement from the pitching staff should move them north of 70 wins this season unless they, again, get really unlucky.* *injury considerations aside
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I see Santiago and Duffey put up some pretty stellar performances today.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, but Garver could easily get reps in both 2018 and early 2019 before taking full-time duties at catcher. I'm not terribly keen on the idea of Gimenez making the 25-man roster but if he's good with pitchers, I won't get too upset about it, either. This pitching staff needs all the help it can get and given the relative offensive stability of the roster, sacrificing some offense to help that beleaguered staff makes some sense.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    1. The left side of the infield was terrible last season, too... Except this season, the outfield should be considerably better. 2. It's possible, maybe even likely, the Twins have a bottom three rotation in all of baseball but still improve by five or more wins. They were that bad last season. With Berrios and May, I doubt we see the dumpster fire we saw last season and if we do, the Twins are in real trouble going forward. Hell, you get three league average performances from Berrios, May, and Santana and the Twins vault forward a half dozen wins. Improvement is not difficult to achieve given the bar set last year. 3. I don't expect too much improvement from the bullpen, at least in the first half of the season. Hard to predict after that point.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't really disagree but Castro is signed for three years. Garver doesn't have to start 2017 in Minnesota to potentially replace Castro three years from now.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm still struggling with the concept that if you're only allowed to go to one school, that it's a "choice".
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't get this take. One has to believe Berrios is "bomb out of baseball in one season" bad to think this pitching staff won't improve to some extent. Then there's May, Gibson (who was epically bad last season and almost has to improve by default), Hughes, etc. Will this pitching staff be bad? Sure, I think it will. But it probably won't be "one of the worst MLB staffs of the past decade" bad two years running.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd put them at 72.5 or 73.5 so this is a pretty reasonable number in my eyes.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Same here but Rosario is also awful against lefties. You can rotate Grossman into the lineup without taking much playing time from either starter. Grossman should start every game against a lefty. Every one. Grossman was 400 (!) OPS points better against LHP than Rosario and Kepler last season. I don't expect him to repeat that number but even 200 points is a HUGE swing.
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