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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    But see, this is the part of the argument that makes no sense. Objectively speaking, here are the comparisons between Rosario and Paulsen: 1. Rosario was the better hitter in the minors. Not by a lot numbers-wise but he was much younger at every level of play. 2. Adjusted for league and park factors, Paulson and Rosario are similar MLB hitters (92 and 95 OPS+). 3. Rosario can play centerfield, Paulsen cannot. 4. Rosario is significantly better as a corner outfielder than Paulsen. 5. Rosario is four years younger than Paulsen. If Paulsen isn't a long-term solution (and he shouldn't be a long- or short-term solution for anyone ever, IMO), what's the point in cutting Rosario? There is absolutely nothing to indicate that Paulsen will perform significantly better than Eddie Rosario and Paulsen's potential ceiling is miles below what Eddie can do if things click. You're arguing to replace a high ceiling, low floor player with a low ceiling, low floor player that is four years older. What kind of gain is to be found here? Unless you'd like to see a new front office in place - because that's the kind of move that gets a front office rightfully canned - I simply cannot see the logic in what you're arguing here.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I think it's suspect to say pitchers have figured out Miguel. Over the past seven days (five games), he's just been kinda bad (.642 OPS). The seven days prior, he was very very good. Yeah, he seems to struggle with the curve but he also struggles with the slider. So do lots of players. We'll need more than a few games of data to draw a conclusion. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12164&position=3B/DH#pitchvalues I think people tend to forget that Miguel only has 900 career plate appearances. Yeah, he's gonna get tricked by MLB pitching from time to time as pitchers give him a different look because they're bloody terrified of the man.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    To elaborate a bit, I wouldn't have Santana on the roster. But if you add Vargas to replace Tonkin, then you have a situation where Grossman is your fourth outfielder. That's not a big problem in my eyes but should an in-game disaster situation arise, you might need Santana to play a few innings because Grossman is DH or another guy is banged up. Or Danny can pinch-run a few times a week. Or pinch-hit infrequently when the rest of your hand is played. In that situation and role, Santana is not killing you. He has a few tools, none of them very good, but they're tools none-the-less. Because because you also have Vargas and more flexibility with Grossman/Mauer, Santana in that role isn't nearly the irritant he is today with a 13 man pitching staff.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Pretty much. Santana can be useful in a relative sense if you have a 24th man who is competent at something. In an ideal world, both players would be competent. In no way am I suggesting Santana should be on the roster, only that this roster would be far less frustrating if there was another guy to rely on not named Danny Santana.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    While I'd like to see Santana go as well, this is the real problem in my eyes. The team can survive with Santana as the 25th man. The problem I see is that the 24th man should be a hitter and is currently a pitcher instead.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Ah, good catch. I watched the game but didn't recall the specifics of the bunt. I'm less of a fan of bunting with two outs, as it's not significantly different than a walk (excepting the occasional squeeze play, which may be the most exciting play in baseball).
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I think you're giving too much weight to the guy who pitches 3 innings in a laugher. Say that guy is on the roster for three weeks. How many times does he pitch? Four games, tops. Probably more like 2-3 games. And remember that the Twins have played 10% of the season without this actually happening. You're hedging against an unlikely event and a player who doesn't matter much in favor of a competent hitter who can influence 3-4 games a week.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, this. The Twins simply don't need 13 pitchers. And should they find themselves in the position where they need 13 pitchers, it's not likely to last longer than a few weeks. And you can patchwork a solution for a few weeks. Give Haley a more prominent role and call up "Random Pitcher X Whose Name I Won't Even Bother to Mention Because It Doesn't Matter" and work with that for a short period of time. But in the meantime, while this hasn't been an actual problem, the Twins are leaving runs on the table because the back of the bench is Santana and a catcher who can't hit.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes and yes. Rosario is making the adjustments that need to be made. If he continues down this path, I suspect his numbers will normalize in short order. And if he keeps laying off bad pitches and making more contact with the pitches he swings at, which he has done this season, he may even improve over his 2015 numbers. And at that point, you have yourself a damned fine everyday left fielder.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    But that doesn't fix the Mauer problem. Even when Joe is "rolling", he only tops out as an .800 OPS guy at this point in his career. Adding a quasi-platoon bat to spell both Mauer and Grossman from their daily roles seems like a good way to increase offensive capabilities overall. The only reason I'd even consider this is because the Twins are in a rather unique situation. They have an elite guy in center and two guys at the corners who can hold their own in center. I believe this opportunity affords the Twins a luxury few other teams enjoy: the ability to carry a fourth outfielder who can hit. Because you're not going to get a fourth outfielder who can hit and field. Those guys are more commonly referred to as "starting outfielders".
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, not discounting it at all. My initial expectation for Grossman going into the season was, like you, around a .750 OPS. All I'm saying is that I'm beginning to question that expectation. I'm still not sold on Grossman but I'm opening up to the idea that he's a lot better than I expected him to be.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    One could also argue the following: 1. Grossman's bat is slightly more valuable in LF than DH 2. The Twins have three centerfielders already on the roster 3. Grossman crushes LHP 4. All of those centerfielders have questionable, bad, or terrible bats against LHP If you play Grossman in a corner spot once a week against a lefty, is the 200 OPS points you gain with his bat offset by his decreased defensive ability? I honestly don't know the answer to that question but I suspect it's not clearcut either way... and the offensive flexibility it affords the Twins to replace Santana with Vargas is pretty hard to resist.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    No one is disputing that. But Rosario has 800+ career plate appearances with a consistent BABIP. We're not pulling a number out of thin air, we're comparing Rosario to himself. What is more likely about Rosario? 1. He suddenly forgot how to hit a baseball with authority. 2. 40 plate appearances with an abnormally low BABIP comparative to his own career number is unlikely to continue.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I wouldn't rule it out entirely, no. And you're talking about a .750-.770 OPS and I'm talking about an .800 OPS. That's about 7-8 hits scattered over the course of a season, or about one extra hit every 20 games. Is that truly unreasonable? The fact is that neither you nor I have any idea where Grossman will land when it comes to BABIP because he doesn't have the track record one way or the other.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Is it really "fast and loose", though? Charois, Melotakis, and Burdi aren't borderline prospects (in the reliever sense, anyway). There are enough moving pieces on this roster to patch together a bullpen if things go badly and a guy gets injured. For example, move Gibson to the long man role, shift Haley to a more prominent role, and call up Berrios. And in a couple of months, at least one of the hot-shot relievers should be ready to pick up the slack.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    It's definitely a question but I looked at Grossman's peripherals a bit more closely and it's entirely possible he's a .340-.350 BABIP guy. He puts few balls in the air, a decent amount are line drives, and quite a few are on the ground. That's going to lead to an abnormally high BABIP. Also fewer homers than he's probably capable of hitting but that's okay.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    His BABIP is maybe 20 points too high, 30 points tops. It's hardly the 60-80 points Santana and Colabello saw in their "breakout" seasons.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    If it was one season, I'd be more skeptical of it... But picking up a second half season and performing at the same level gives it a bit more weight, IMO. Guys get hot all the time and ride that streak for a couple of months. Picking up that hot streak six months later and doing it again seems more unlikely, IMO.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, this seems kind of pointless. If the Twins feel it's smart to backfill their MiLB rosters with 32 year old mentor types, that's not necessarily a bad strategy (though, given the Twins recent prospect performance, I'd call that strategy into question because it doesn't appear to work). I'd like to see them go a bit more granular with these numbers: 1. Rank the organization's top 50 prospects. Who has the youngest prospects? 2. Choose the best dozen or so guys from each MiLB team roster. Who has the youngest prospects? 3. Use median age, not average age. Any of those solutions would be better than what we see here.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, it's likely the front office will feel they need to waive Vargas to put Park on the 40 man. Teams try to balance rosters and for good reason: you can find yourself in quite a situation if two starters go down and you have five 1B/DH types and not enough pitchers on your roster. So I think it's wise to just give Vargas his shot, let him take his hacks against MLB pitching for two months, and then consider whether you want to just cut the guy and replace him with Park or keep Vargas in Minnesota and try to do something else with Park.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, pretty much my thoughts as well.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I think the bunt was a fine choice, it simply didn't work. Bunt attempts, even with Buxton's speed, are not going to work 100% or even 75% of the time. But if Buxton was trying to reach base safely and can reach base in 40-50% of his bunt attempts, I'll take that and be very happy with the outcome. If Buxton hit that bunt right back at the pitcher because he was trying to sacrifice, I'd consider strangling Byron.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    There's also not a clear pitcher worth keeping.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Hey, I'm still skeptical of the guy. My original thread was a pretty simple question: When do we consider a guy a good hitter? How long does it take? And Grossman has over 450 consecutive PAs of being a very good hitter across parts of two seasons. Is that enough? It's not entirely enough for me personally but now is the time I begin to consider that it's possible this is who Grossman is going forward. Still not convinced, though. If he crosses 600 PAs with this kind of performance, I'll consider Grossman an .800+ OPS hitter going forward.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Especially when those values appear to be benign in nature. If someone is quietly living their life and trying to be a good person in the process, that's more than enough for me. This article makes me like Dozier a little bit more.
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