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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Roll the dice. If Sano can stand at the plate and run to first without serious danger of injury, you put him at DH. Sure, he might be terrible. But all you need is for the big man to make contact once in the game for it to make all the difference in the world.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, come on. Why'd you have to go and ruin it for everyone?
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think the second half dive is that big a black mark on Gordon. It's not injury-related and he's still pretty young and lean. It could simply be a situation where he needs to grow into his body a bit more to withstand a 120+ game season.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    No. In grand Twins tradition, he should take second.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Two top 100 guys and a quality MLB starter with All-Star upside. I don't know how much more the Rays could get from anyone. It really depends on how people view Gordon. If he's a legit MLB starting shortstop, that's a quality offer.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Kepler, Gordon, and Gonsalves for Archer. Do you do it? Do the Rays do it? It's an interesting offer. Gordon finished on a low note but let's not forget he spent most of the season well over an .800 OPS. He's going to be a top 40 guy this offseason. Gonsalves will be a top 100 guy. That's a lot of talent to give up for any single player (particularly a pitcher), though.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. It's the conclusion I've been forced to draw. I'd also toss in "and a horrible human being" as well. One cannot continue to support a vile person without taking on some of that vileness.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    It also showed a lot of patience by the new front office and coaching staff. It would have been all too easy to demote/bench Buxton, Polanco, et al during various points of the season.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    They got just shy of 100 innings of 124 ERA+ ball from Gray. That's a better per-inning value than any Twins starter by a healthy margin.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    They also traded Gray.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I remember it well. Mainly because 11 years later, you still won't shut up about it.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    No group was forecast to have great success based on what we knew July 29th or so but here is what we did know: 1. The Twins' peripherals were of a team 8-10 games under .500, not a .500 team. 2. The Twins had one of the worst pitching staffs in the AL. 3. The Twins had dropped like a rock in the standings in the two weeks leading to the deadline. 4. Other teams, such as KC, were coming on strong (whether it would last or not is certainly debatable). 5. The Twins front office had to assume at least one of the teams in front of the Twins would buy, improving their chances. 6. If you did every single thing right, you'd earn a single play-in game, likely on the road. To me, that looks like a selling situation. It did at the time and it still does now. I can see some frustration over the Kintzler move but I would have done the same thing (and advocated it) so I'm certainly not going to complain about it now.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    And if there was another option available, literally ANY option at all, it’s hard to see Molitor taking Gibby back at any point. The distaste Paul had for Kyle was obvious.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    No, which is why no prediction models had the Twins with a good chance of a berth. It’s easy to look at stuff like the Tigers’ record today and assume they were always that terrible. But the Tigers were ten games under .500 at the deadline. Fewer than two months later, they are 33 games under .500 and that is AFTER they won four straight games from Aug 1-4. Baseball is a silly sport. Oakland and Detroit were basically the same team at the deadline. Pretty bad but not horrific. Both sold significant pieces. Detroit went 23 games under .500 down the stretch. Oakland went one game OVER .500.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    What hypotheticals? That out of eight teams, a flawed and significantly outscored to that point Twins team wouldn't hang with over half the AL for a single postseason spot? That's not a hypothetical. The Twins had the worst run differential of the bunch (going from memory) and were in a backwards slide, posting a terrible record in July. And it was unreasonable to expect all seven teams to falter. Hell, head-to-head matchups almost dictate that at least one of them would end up a winner.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Seattle, Tampa, Baltimore, and Kansas City all played sub-.450 ball down the stretch. Half of the eight teams who were in the mix at the deadline.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    The Angels didn't make a strong run. They played two games over .500 for two months after getting Trout back just before the deadline and acquiring a very good Upton for September. If you consider their record going into mid-July, they underperformed their previous record by getting back a 1+ WAR per month player and a .900 OPS player in Upton. For that team to play 27-25 baseball down the stretch is a pretty big disappointment for them. And I don't see how it's not considered "folding" when a full half of those .500-ish teams played sub-.450 baseball after the deadline. That's a lower win percentage than the Oakland A's played all season.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Four .500-ish teams playing at a sub-.450 clip and all but one team playing under .500 ball isn't folding? I don't feel like this is a difficult concept to grasp but apparently it is. Here's my point, clarified: If you have eight .500-ish teams with two months to play, you'll usually end up with a few of them under .500, a few of them will remain around .500, and a few of them will end up over .500. And that's ignoring the potential improvement some of those teams will see by making trades to shore up deficiencies. For all of them but one to remain under .500 is a statistical fluke, one you do not see very often in baseball (again, 2017 is the first time this century the AL has ended up with just five teams over .500 and it even happened in a 15 team league, not the previous 14 team league). It requires a lot of teams folding to end up at that number, which is why we haven't seen it in at least the past 20 years (I stopped checking at 2000).
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree, I'm only saying that after the improbable happened, it became an error. A largely unpredictable error but an error none-the-less. I supported the move at the time and still support the thinking that led to it.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    No. Sale is leading the majors with 214 IP. But averaging 7.0 IP and 6.1 IP is more than the difference between that hypothetical pitcher and Sale so we're talking a very small difference per game.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Intangibles aside, Dozier leads the team in fWAR and it's not particularly close (0.8 ahead of Buxton, which is nearing the escape point of margin of error). Add in the intangibles of Dozier's deadline attitude and it's a pretty easy decision in my eyes. Not disparaging the rest of the team but only three players have put together five or more months of decent play: Rosario, Mauer, and Dozier. And Dozier is significantly more valuable by fWAR.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    That's a fair thing to say. I consider it a small error with the correct thinking behind it. But after the unlikely events that transpired, still an error. And as we've seen with the old front office (and other teams), I'd rather see the occasional error with the correct process behind it than the inverse.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't check but I doubt it, as the NL had 16 teams for the bulk of that time.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    2017 is first time this century only five American League teams will finish the season with a winning record. And the AL had only 14 teams the bulk of that time.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    See, I hope they were. The Twins had to make a decision around July 28-29. The Royals were hot and likely in the hunt to acquire pieces. The Twins were reeling and had to make a decision whether they could catch the Royals. And right there, in that moment, the situation looked dire. I supported the decision at the time and still support it today. Just because the Twins bats came alive to an extent no one predicted doesn't mean the decision to do a mild sell was the wrong one.
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