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    TD Top Prospects #3: Alex Kirilloff

    Seth Stohs

    By Seth Stohs

    If you ever have an hour to spare and you’re not feeling great, do a search for “Alex Kirilloff Batting Practice” on YouTube, Google or your search engine of choice. I’d guess you’ll find yourself smiling. In preparing for this article, I only meant to watch one video. An hour later, I figured I should start writing.

    In 2015, the Twins had their first season with a record over .500 since 2010. Because of it, they drafted outside of the top six picks for the first time in five years. With the 15th overall pick, the Twins went in a familiar direction, an athletic outfielder out of high school.

    Alex Kirilloff was drafted out of Plum High School in Pennsylvania. He actually was part of the Pennsylvania Cyber School, a public charter with online courses. On the day the Twins drafted him, he led his team to the state championship game.

    Twins Video

    After signing, Kirilloff jumped straight to Elizabethton where he got off to a great start. Through his first 38 games, he hit .361/.378/.516 (.894) with nine doubles and five home runs. He slowed down as the summer went on, and his season came to an end early with an elbow injury.

    In a recent Q&A with Twins Daily, Kirilloff discussed his success in his pro debut. “It really was a combination of things. First off, it was a blessing from the Lord, and I give all the glory to God for letting me get off to a good start in my career. Second, I was pretty rested, excited, and eager to start playing.”

    Age: 19 (DOB: 11/9/97)

    2016 Stats (Adv-Rookie): .306/.341/.454 (.795), nine doubles, one triple, seven home runs

    ETA: 2020

    2016 Twins Daily Ranking: NR

    National Top 100 Rankings

    BA: 98 | MLB: NR | ESPN: 97 | BP: NR

    What's To Like

    As you would expect from any first-round draft pick, there is a lot to like about Alex Kirilloff. He has the tools and the makeup to go with it.

    The first thing that people talk about when it comes to Kirilloff is his offensive game. He’s got good size (6-2, 200 pounds). His father owns an indoor hitting facility and there are stories of Kirilloff hitting off the tee as soon as he was able to walk. He has always played against older competition, a trend which continued in Elizabethton where he was more than two years younger than the league average.

    He possesses a smooth, left-handed swing and uses the whole field very well. He has shown power to all fields. He’s got quick hands and can pull the ball a long way, but his most natural power just might be to left-center field. He showed power in Elizabethton in his pro debut, and most believe that he will continue to add home run power.

    Defensively, he has enough speed that he could play center field. However, he primarily played right field with the E-Twins and that will likely be his position going forward. He has a strong arm. He also played some first base in his amateur career and really impressed scouts with his work there.

    What's Left To Work On

    While most believe that Kirilloff is an advanced hitter, one thing he’ll certainly look to improve upon in his first full season will be getting on base more often. While he struck out in just 13.8% of his plate appearances, he walked just 4.7% of his plate appearances. It’s not unusual for first-year pros to debut and swing early and often, looking to make a strong impression. He was known in high school to have a strong approach at the plate, but he’ll need to show more of that in 2017.

    Other than that, Kirilloff needs to play. He needs at-bats, and he needs to get opportunities in the outfield. He will need to adjust to the advanced speed of the game as he moves up the ladder.

    As Kirilloff himself said in the aforementioned Q&A, “I still have room for improvement in all aspects of my game though and I have a long way to go.”

    What's Next

    Like other top draft picks, Alex Kirilloff will begin his first full season as a professional in the Midwest League. He will begin the season in Cedar Rapids. Most likely, he’ll spend the full season there, though it is certainly possible that he could spend time late in the season with the Miracle in Ft. Myers.

    ~~~

    Read up on our previous installments in the Twins Daily top prospects series:

    TD Top Prospects: #20-16

    TD Top Prospects: #15-11

    TD Top Prospects: #10 Lewin Diaz

    TD Top Prospects: #9 Travis Blankenhorn

    TD Top Prospects: #8 Kohl Stewart

    TD Top Prospects: #7 Adalberto Mejia

    TD Top Prospects: #6 Wander Javier

    TD Top Prospects: #5 Tyler Jay

    TD Top Prospects: #4 Nick Gordon

    TD Top Prospects: #3 Alex Kirilloff

    TD Top Prospects: #2 (Coming Thursday)

    TD Top Prospects: #1 (Coming Friday)

    Interested in learning more about the Minnesota Twins' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!

    View Twins Top Prospects
    Seth Stohs has been blogging about the Minnesota Twins since May 2003. A founder and owner of Twins Daily (including Brewer Fanatic, North Side Baseball), Seth has been a Twins fan for 40 years and has a passion for covering the minor leagues and prospects. #GirlDad
    Follow Seth Stohs on Twitter: sethtweets

    Follow Twins Daily For Minnesota Twins News & Analysis

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    Featured Comments

    Twinsfan12

    Twinsfan12 43

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Alex will be great in the outfielder or at first base down the road with the Twins...I think sooner than later...great kid, great baseball IQ and a sweet swing. However, I heard a rumor that his 2017 season may be done. The elbow injury may need TJ surgery. :( 

    Eris

    Eris 1,674

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Posters on PhilsDaily are already calling for managements head for taking Mickey M. Over AK.

    Phillie fans can be a rough bunch.  While I hope you are right as I am a Twins fan, MLB has Mantis as the their 6th best OF prospect.  Keith Law has Mantis at 30 and Kirilloff at 97 on his prospect rankings.

    tobi0040

    tobi0040 4,125

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    If he hits, we will find a spot for him. I get it. But these are pretty important things. When all the guys you thought could stick at SS end up at 3B, and guys like Sano move from 3B to RF or DH, and Kiriloff or Kepler from RF to 1B your offense gets watered down.

    Tom Froemming

    Tom Froemming 10,492

  • Twins Daily Contributor

    • Posted

    I may get too caught up in positional preferences, and I get he swings a good stick, but I have a hard time putting Kirilloff over Gordon or even Javier. I think there's been a bit of an overreaction to the 2016 numbers for both Kirilloff (good) and Rortvedt (bad). Either way, the talent the Twins have in the lower minors is pretty exciting, especially considering they also have the No. 1 pick.

    Seth Stohs

    Seth Stohs 28,062

  • Site Manager

    • Posted

     

    I may get too caught up in positional preferences, and I get he swings a good stick, but I have a hard time putting Kirilloff over Gordon or even Javier. I think there's been a bit of an overreaction to the 2016 numbers for both Kirilloff (good) and Rortvedt (bad). Either way, the talent the Twins have in the lower minors is pretty exciting, especially considering they also have the No. 1 pick.

     

    Position is one of a whole bunch of factors and everyone weighs them differently. I don't put much value on the actual numbers (in the cases of Rortvedt and Kirilloff). To me, that first season (following the draft), the numbers mean very little. 

    Drew

    Drew 399

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Not quite.  .952 fielding percentage in the OF is not very promising... And speed is a tool he has not.  Was 0/1 in SB last season.  There is room for improvement and he did play centerfield in 11 games, I suspect just to have a look at him over there.  Strong arm and I think that he projects as a right fielder, but still needs to do work with the glove.

     

    Interesting to see what he can do in the Midwest League.  His swing is somewhat complicated and has too many moving parts and I am curious to see how it plays against better off-speed and breaking pitches...

     

    0-1 in SB tells you next to nothing about his speed. And judging a players defense on fielding percentage is like judging the taste of a steak by me telling you over the phone that it’s brown. Torii Hunter had a .895 fielding pct in his first year in the minors and he did alright.

    markos

    markos 2,012

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    0-1 in SB tells you next to nothing about his speed. And judging a players defense on fielding percentage is like judging the taste of a steak by me telling you over the phone that it’s brown. Torii Hunter had a .895 fielding pct in his first year in the minors and he did alright.

    Much of the (at least public) work that tries to project prospects has found that SBs are a statistically significant indicator for future success. For example, Chris Mitchell's KATOH projection system uses SB% (Stolen base attempts / times on first base) because it was a predictor of reaching the major leagues, even at the rookie ball level. In fact, it was more significant than walk rate at that low of level. In addition, there is a line of thought that stolen bases and triples form a decent proxy for overall athleticism, which in turn can be use to predict defensive ability.

     

    In the case of Kirilloff, the lack of stolen bases are a legitimate concern. Certainly not the be all end all, but combined with scouting reports that universally project him to a corner position (and some that say he looks pretty good at first base!), there is a fair amount of evidence that points to him being a liability in the outfield, and potentially on the base paths as well. Obviously there is a continuum here, but if he ends up closer to the Kubel/Arcia end of the spectrum rather than the Rosario/Kepler end, then that just adds even more pressure on his bat.

    70charger

    70charger 5,604

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Much of the (at least public) work that tries to project prospects has found that SBs are a statistically significant indicator for future success. For example, Chris Mitchell's KATOH projection system uses SB% (Stolen base attempts / times on first base) because it was a predictor of reaching the major leagues, even at the rookie ball level. In fact, it was more significant than walk rate at that low of level. In addition, there is a line of thought that stolen bases and triples form a decent proxy for overall athleticism, which in turn can be use to predict defensive ability.

     

    In the case of Kirilloff, the lack of stolen bases are a legitimate concern. Certainly not the be all end all, but combined with scouting reports that universally project him to a corner position (and some that say he looks pretty good at first base!), there is a fair amount of evidence that points to him being a liability in the outfield, and potentially on the base paths as well. Obviously there is a continuum here, but if he ends up closer to the Kubel/Arcia end of the spectrum rather than the Rosario/Kepler end, then that just adds even more pressure on his bat.

     

    Not to speak for OP, but surely there's a sample size problem?

     

    0-1 stolen bases wouldn't indicate anything more than 1-1 would. He didn't try enough. Was that because he isn't fast enough, or did he have few opportunities, or were the coaches just focusing on different parts of his game? We have no idea. The stats simply don't and can't help in this case.

     

    And I say this as (apparently) the person most skeptical of Kiriloff in this thread.



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