TD Top Prospects #3: Alex Kirilloff

Seth Stohs · February 22, 2017

Rankings by others:

Twins Daily - 3

Seth - 3

Nick - 3

Jeremy - 1

Cody - 4

BB America - 3

BB Prospectus - 4

Sickels (Min Lg Ball) - 4

MLB Pipeline - 4

Keith Law - 5

Twinsfan12 · February 22, 2017

Alex will be great in the outfielder or at first base down the road with the Twins...I think sooner than later...great kid, great baseball IQ and a sweet swing. However, I heard a rumor that his 2017 season may be done. The elbow injury may need TJ surgery.

Eris · February 22, 2017

Posters on PhilsDaily are already calling for managements head for taking Mickey M. Over AK.

Phillie fans can be a rough bunch. While I hope you are right as I am a Twins fan, MLB has Mantis as the their 6th best OF prospect. Keith Law has Mantis at 30 and Kirilloff at 97 on his prospect rankings.

tobi0040 · February 23, 2017

If he hits, we will find a spot for him. I get it. But these are pretty important things. When all the guys you thought could stick at SS end up at 3B, and guys like Sano move from 3B to RF or DH, and Kiriloff or Kepler from RF to 1B your offense gets watered down.

DJL44 · February 23, 2017

I'm not sure where the idea that a player has received "too much coaching" comes from.

I didn't say he had too much coaching. I think he may already be close to his ceiling because he has had the benefit of growing up in a batting cage.

MN_ExPat · February 23, 2017

I see your point.... I'd agree somewhat as well.

Although, what about Bryce Harper? I think they modified his DNA before the egg was fertilized with baseball shavings and wood bat pulp.

Tom Froemming · February 23, 2017

I may get too caught up in positional preferences, and I get he swings a good stick, but I have a hard time putting Kirilloff over Gordon or even Javier. I think there's been a bit of an overreaction to the 2016 numbers for both Kirilloff (good) and Rortvedt (bad). Either way, the talent the Twins have in the lower minors is pretty exciting, especially considering they also have the No. 1 pick.

Seth Stohs · February 23, 2017

I may get too caught up in positional preferences, and I get he swings a good stick, but I have a hard time putting Kirilloff over Gordon or even Javier. I think there's been a bit of an overreaction to the 2016 numbers for both Kirilloff (good) and Rortvedt (bad). Either way, the talent the Twins have in the lower minors is pretty exciting, especially considering they also have the No. 1 pick.

Position is one of a whole bunch of factors and everyone weighs them differently. I don't put much value on the actual numbers (in the cases of Rortvedt and Kirilloff). To me, that first season (following the draft), the numbers mean very little.

Drew · February 23, 2017

Not quite. .952 fielding percentage in the OF is not very promising... And speed is a tool he has not. Was 0/1 in SB last season. There is room for improvement and he did play centerfield in 11 games, I suspect just to have a look at him over there. Strong arm and I think that he projects as a right fielder, but still needs to do work with the glove.

Interesting to see what he can do in the Midwest League. His swing is somewhat complicated and has too many moving parts and I am curious to see how it plays against better off-speed and breaking pitches...

0-1 in SB tells you next to nothing about his speed. And judging a players defense on fielding percentage is like judging the taste of a steak by me telling you over the phone that it’s brown. Torii Hunter had a .895 fielding pct in his first year in the minors and he did alright.

markos · February 24, 2017

0-1 in SB tells you next to nothing about his speed. And judging a players defense on fielding percentage is like judging the taste of a steak by me telling you over the phone that it’s brown. Torii Hunter had a .895 fielding pct in his first year in the minors and he did alright.

Much of the (at least public) work that tries to project prospects has found that SBs are a statistically significant indicator for future success. For example, Chris Mitchell's KATOH projection system uses SB% (Stolen base attempts / times on first base) because it was a predictor of reaching the major leagues, even at the rookie ball level. In fact, it was more significant than walk rate at that low of level. In addition, there is a line of thought that stolen bases and triples form a decent proxy for overall athleticism, which in turn can be use to predict defensive ability.

In the case of Kirilloff, the lack of stolen bases are a legitimate concern. Certainly not the be all end all, but combined with scouting reports that universally project him to a corner position (and some that say he looks pretty good at first base!), there is a fair amount of evidence that points to him being a liability in the outfield, and potentially on the base paths as well. Obviously there is a continuum here, but if he ends up closer to the Kubel/Arcia end of the spectrum rather than the Rosario/Kepler end, then that just adds even more pressure on his bat.

70charger · February 24, 2017

Much of the (at least public) work that tries to project prospects has found that SBs are a statistically significant indicator for future success. For example, Chris Mitchell's KATOH projection system uses SB% (Stolen base attempts / times on first base) because it was a predictor of reaching the major leagues, even at the rookie ball level. In fact, it was more significant than walk rate at that low of level. In addition, there is a line of thought that stolen bases and triples form a decent proxy for overall athleticism, which in turn can be use to predict defensive ability.

In the case of Kirilloff, the lack of stolen bases are a legitimate concern. Certainly not the be all end all, but combined with scouting reports that universally project him to a corner position (and some that say he looks pretty good at first base!), there is a fair amount of evidence that points to him being a liability in the outfield, and potentially on the base paths as well. Obviously there is a continuum here, but if he ends up closer to the Kubel/Arcia end of the spectrum rather than the Rosario/Kepler end, then that just adds even more pressure on his bat.

Not to speak for OP, but surely there's a sample size problem?

0-1 stolen bases wouldn't indicate anything more than 1-1 would. He didn't try enough. Was that because he isn't fast enough, or did he have few opportunities, or were the coaches just focusing on different parts of his game? We have no idea. The stats simply don't and can't help in this case.

And I say this as (apparently) the person most skeptical of Kiriloff in this thread.

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TD Top Prospects #3: Alex Kirilloff

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