Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account
  • Twins Minor League Coverage

    Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 7 (6-10)


    Seth Stohs

    We continue to look at and recognize Minnesota Twins prospects. We've already discussed Twins prospects 50 through 11. Today, we enter our Top 10 Twins prospects with my choices for prospects 6 through 10.

    Again, we’ve got a wide range of prospect here. We have a left-handed pitcher who is very nearly MLB ready. We’ve got a former top pick who has created a lot of discussion as there is still upside, but there are also question marks. And there are a few very young hitters with the world of potential with a long trek still to make before reaching the big leagues. The ceilings are high. The question marks are many.

    If you've missed any of the previous installments, check them out here:

    Part 1 (41-50)

    Part 2 (31-40)

    Part 3 (26-30)

    Part 4 (21-25)

    Part 5 (16-20)

    Part 6 (11-15)

    And then feel free to join the conversation. Ask questions, start thinking about your personal Top 30 or Top 50 list. When this list is done, hopefully you’ll post yours, either in the comments, or in a Blog post.

    Image courtesy of Seth Stohs (photos of Lewin Diaz, Travis Blankenhorn, Kohl Stewart)

    Twins Video

    Players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2017. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at-bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings. (The list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2017 - which Cody Christie, Jeremy Nygaard and I are working on - I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list.)

    Top Prospects 6-10

    #10 – Kohl Stewart - 21 – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle/Chattanooga Lookouts

    I list Stewart at 21 years of age, but on Friday he will turn 22. The Twins top pick in the 2013 draft (fourth overall), Stewart has certainly pitched well despite a glaring lack of strikeouts. In 2015, he posted a 3.20 ERA in Ft. Myers. In 143.2 innings, he walked 63 (3.1 K/9) but struck out just 91 (4.9 K/9). Because of it, he remained in Ft. Myers for nine starts at the beginning of the 2016 season. He went 3-2 with a 2.61 ERA in 51.2 innings. He walked 19 (3.3 K/9) and struck out 44 (a solid 7.7 K/9). He moved up to Chattanooga and certainly experienced some ups and downs. He went 9-6 with a 3.03 ERA in 16 starts. However, in 92 innings, he walked 44 (4.3 BB/9) and struck out just 47 (4.6 K/9). It remains confusing as Stewart has good stuff. He’s got a fastball that reached to 94-95. He’s got a good slider. He’s got a good change-up. He needs to be more consistent with them, but the stuff is good. The Twins have certainly pushed Stewart along quickly relative to his league dominance. Talking to scouts, you’ll get two very different beliefs in what his ceiling is and likelihood to get there. But if a 21-year-old posts a 3.03 ERA in the AA Southern League despite the lack of strikeouts, he needs to remain in top prospect discussions.

    #9 – Adalberto Mejia - 23 – LHP – Rochester Red Wings/Minnesota Twins

    Mejia was signed by the Giants in 2010. He gradually moved his way up the ladder. Following a strong 2014 season, Baseball Prospectus named him the #86 prospect in baseball. Unfortunately, he was suspended 50 games for PEDs. Upon his return, he threw 51.1 innings in AA Richmond, 31 innings in the Arizona Fall League and 18 more innings in the Dominican Winter League. 100 innings total. That’s why the Twins shut him down in early September at 134.1 innings this year. His season began in AA Richmond where he posted a 1.94 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 11 starts. He went 4-1 in AAA Sacramento. Baseball America put him near the bottom of their midseason Top 100 list. On July 28, the Twins acquired him from the Giants in exchange for Eduardo Nunez. He made four starts in Rochester, and he was called up for one day to the Twins. He gave up two runs in 2.1 innings out of the bullpen. Overall in 2016, he walked just 2.0 per nine innings. The lefty struck out a very solid 8.6 per nine innings. At 6-3, he weighs about 220 pounds. He works in the 91 to 93 mph range and is capable of hitting 94. He’s got a good change-up in the low-to-mid 90s. He also has a good slider in the mid-80s. A left-hander who is just 23 and has three potential above-average pitches who has had some AAA success, Mejia could factor into the Twins starting rotation at some point in the 2017 season.

    #8 – Wander Javier - 17 – SS – DSL Twins

    On July 2, 2015, the Twins signed Javier to a $4 million signing bonus. It covered their entire allotment for the international signing period. Javier looks the part of a shortstop. He’s 6-0 and 175 pounds. He is a good athlete with very good speed. He has a big arm and a generally good feel for the position. He has a lot of power potential as well. The one concern about him offensively appears to be his ability to square up the ball at times. He began his playing career this season in the Dominican Summer League. The plan was for him to spend the full season there. He got off to a good start. Unfortunately, after seven games he pulled his hamstring. He missed 16 games before he came back in late June. In his second game back, he re-aggravated the same injury and missed the rest of the season. It was good to see that he did come to Ft. Myers to participate in the Instructional League. He didn’t play much, but he was a full participant most of the time in practices. He’ll most likely come to the States in 2017 for extended spring training and play for the GCL Twins. He (and this ranking) are based solely on ceiling, potential and upside, but his road to the big leagues will take time. If the Twins rush him, he could be in the big leagues in 2020, but that would be very aggressive.

    #7 – Travis Blankenhorn - 20 – 2B – Elizabethton Twins/Cedar Rapids Kernels

    Blankenhorn was the Twins third-round pick in 2015 out of high school in Pennsylvania. He split the 2015 short-season between the GCL (14 games) and Elizabethton (39 games). In spring training, he was moved from third base to second base. He was also struggling with the bat early in the year too, so he stayed in extended spring training. He returned to Tennessee for the start of the Elizabethton season. In 34 games, he hit .297/.342/.558 (.900) with seven doubles, a triple, nine home runs and 29 RBI. He moved up to Cedar Rapids where he hit .286/.356/.418 (.774) with five doubles, two triples and a homer in 25 games. He did a nice job for the Kernels in the playoffs as well, hitting .350. Defense is where the question marks are for Blankenhorn. He did a solid job at second base, though his range is lacking in large part due to needing more reps. Of the 40 total games he didn’t DH, he played second base in 37 of them, with three games played at third base. Blankenhorn is a good athlete, and he is very strong. He has slightly above average speed. He won’t turn 21 until next August.

    #6 – Lewin Diaz - 19 – 1B – Elizabethton Twins

    Diaz was the Twins big international free agent signing in the 2013 international signing period. That can be taken two ways. He signed a big signing bonus for $1.4 million. At 6-3, 260 pounds, he is a rather big man. At the time, his body type was compared to that of David Ortiz and Ryan Howard. So, while he played some in the outfield as a 14-15 year old, he was destined for a career at first base and maybe DH. He began his career with a summer in the DSL. In 2015, he came to the States and split time between the GCL and Elizabethton. In 33 games in the GCL, he hit .261/.354/.369 (.724) with seven doubles, a triple and a home run. He moved up to Elizabethton for the final 14 games. He hit just .167, but three of his eight hits were home runs. In 2016, he busted out. In 46 games in Elizabethon, he hit .310/.353/.575 (.928) with 15 doubles, two triples and nine home runs. Obviously his ceiling would involve hitting a lot of home runs, but he is more than just a power hitter with the bat. He could potentially hit for average as well. If things come together well for him, he could become an elite hitter.

    So there you have it, my choices for Twins prospects 6-10. We’ll be back tomorrow with Part 8, the Top Five Prospects of the Minnesota Twins.


    Interested in learning more about the Minnesota Twins' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!

    View Twins Top Prospects

    Follow Twins Daily For Minnesota Twins News & Analysis

    Recent Twins Articles

    Recent Twins Videos


    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Featured Comments

     

    I was being cheeky, and I assumed you were too. I just don't see the value in comparing to all-time greats who were extremely exceptional at how they succeeded. Tons of pitchers have better raw stuff and strikeout rates than Maddux that wash out of baseball every year because they don't figure out the finer points required to have actual success.

     

    Nobody ever advocated to cut him so I don't get point of that snark either. It's entirely reasonable to have doubts about a prospect while supporting him.

    I thought me liking your post was good enough to not have to include a :) or a /s in my reply.

     

    I just wanted to note that it is possible to have a good MLB career with poor minor league SO numbers, since quite a few people are off the Stewart bandwagon, which is pretty understandable. The 2.84 career ERA and his reported stuff is enough for me to still have high hopes for him though.

     

    I thought me liking your post was good enough to not have to include a :) or a /s in my reply.

     

    I just wanted to note that it is possible to have a good MLB career with poor minor league SO numbers, since quite a few people are off the Stewart bandwagon, which is pretty understandable. The 2.84 career ERA and his reported stuff is enough for me to still have high hopes for him though.

     

    The like didn't show up until after I got the reply, my bad.

     

    It's entirely possible, he's just got a big uphill battle starting this next year to make it work. He's going to get plenty of opportunity to try. The difference is he's gone from someone we hoped to be comfortable slotting into future rotations to someone that we need to ready a backup plan for, which certainly complicates things for the 2018+ teams.

    I thought me liking your post was good enough to not have to include a :) or a /s in my reply.

     

    I just wanted to note that it is possible to have a good MLB career with poor minor league SO numbers, since quite a few people are off the Stewart bandwagon, which is pretty understandable. The 2.84 career ERA and his reported stuff is enough for me to still have high hopes for him though.

    It's not just the k rate though. That's why I said k AND bb rates.

    If Stewart had a miniscule bb rate, like I'm guessing Maddux and most other guys who have succeeded with low k rates have had, then I'd be more optimistic.

     

    It's not just the k rate though. That's why I said k AND bb rates.
    If Stewart had a miniscule bb rate, like I'm guessing Maddux and most other guys who have succeeded with low k rates have had, then I'd be more optimistic.

    2.7 BB/9 for Maddux compared to 3.2 BB/9 for Stewart. Stewart's was quite a bit higher this year at 3.9 though which isn't a great sign.

    The simple fact is that pitchers with minor league K/BB rates like Stewart almost never pan out. Sure, there's a chance, just like there's a chance that basically any baseball player in the minor leagues (or beyond) can experience a dramatic improvement in ability and/or results. 

     

    Say Slegers added 5 mph to his fastball - he'd be a great prospect! Maybe Stuart Turner will suddenly become an impact hitter - elite prospect! 

     

    Sure, Stewart could magically turn into a good pitcher, but prospect rankings should be based on reasonable expectations, and it's not reasonable to expect anyone with Stewart's numbers to be a successful MLB starter. It's incredibly rare.

     

    We don't know if Stewart will develop into an MLB pitcher. He still has value for this organization.

    That value may be including him in a trade for a better player. If that's the case, works for me.

     

    There's no reason to think other MLB organizations would attach real value to him. 

     

    There's no reason to think other MLB organizations would attach real value to him. 

    Not sure what you mean by real value? Teams and fans alike target top 10 organization prospects in trade proposals. He just turned 22 years old today. There's still plenty of value for Kohl Stewart today.    

    While it's certainly a red flag, I think it's premature to stick a fork in Stewart based on his MiLB K rates. It would be nice to get more descriptive observations of his performances. Is he more hittable than you'd like because he throws a lot of mistake pitches currently? Does his slider come in a little flat? Are they laying off an offering that he struggles to throw across the plate? Is he still needing to perfect a particular pitch?

     

    Perhaps the scouts still like him because they see correctable issues rather than indications of physical limitations. Maybe Falvey's experiences will translate into some worthwhile discoveries for guys like Stewart. Let's hope so.

     

    Not sure what you mean by real value? Teams and fans alike target top 10 organization prospects in trade proposals. He just turned 22 years old today. There's still plenty of value for Kohl Stewart today.    

     

    Stewart is borderline top 10 at best in an org that has just graduated a bunch of prospects. He's a clear step down from Adelberto Mejia, who was worth Eduardo Nunez. So, at best, Stewart could acquire a player one step down from Eduardo Nunez, or a prospect of similarly limited value. And a lot of orgs probably have Stewart much lower than even that.

     

    Stewart is borderline top 10 at best in an org that has just graduated a bunch of prospects. He's a clear step down from Adelberto Mejia, who was worth Eduardo Nunez. So, at best, Stewart could acquire a player one step down from Eduardo Nunez, or a prospect of similarly limited value. And a lot of orgs probably have Stewart much lower than even that.

     

    You couldn't be more wrong, imo.

     

    How do you know how other orgs rate Stewart? Really?

    Stewart is borderline top 10 at best in an org that has just graduated a bunch of prospects. He's a clear step down from Adelberto Mejia, who was worth Eduardo Nunez. So, at best, Stewart could acquire a player one step down from Eduardo Nunez, or a prospect of similarly limited value. And a lot of orgs probably have Stewart much lower than even that.

    I think you're in the ballpark with Mejia but to be fair he was a mid-season trade, from a team in the wild card race. That may have skewed the price in the Twins favor.

     

    I appreciate any attempt to assign net present value to prospects. Fans grow so attached to them but when you look at actual trades, including offseason trades, its pretty clear that GMs don't attach as much value as fans do, generally.

     

    I think you're in the ballpark with Mejia but to be fair he was a mid-season trade, from a team in the wild card race. That may have skewed the price in the Twins favor.

    I appreciate any attempt to assign net present value to prospects. Fans grow so attached to them but when you look at actual trades, including offseason trades, its pretty clear that GMs don't attach as much value as fans do, generally.

     

    I honestly struggle to see how Stewart could really be part of any trade at this point. The incentives are out of whack . . . what GM wants to give up something for a guy with such performance-related red flags? Even if that org's scouts like Stewart, no one wants to be in the position of assuming all that is a mirage. If Stewart never pans out (which is by far the most likely outcome), that GM looks like an idiot. Clubs take on risky bets like that when the cost is very low.

     

    And from the Twins' perspective, they drafted him very high and wouldn't want to deal him for a realistic return (i.e., a minimal return). So both sides of a potential negotiation are better off just leaving a guy like Stewart out of it.

     

    A couple more years of mediocrity though and he'll be a perfect "change of scenery" throw in.

     

    Edited by drivlikejehu

    I honestly struggle to see how Stewart could really be part of any trade at this point. The incentives are out of whack . . . what GM wants to give up something for a guy with such performance-related red flags? Even if that org's scouts like Stewart, no one wants to be in the position of assuming all that is a mirage. If Stewart never pans out (which is by far the most likely outcome), that GM looks like an idiot. Clubs take on risky bets like that when the cost is very low.

     

    And from the Twins' perspective, they drafted him very high and wouldn't want to deal him for a realistic return (i.e., a minimal return). So both sides of a potential negotiation are better off just leaving a guy like Stewart out of it.

     

    A couple more years of mediocrity though and he'll be a perfect "change of scenery" throw in.

    Well Falvey didn't draft him. Maybe a new VP who isn't personally invested in Stewart would be willing to move him for a fair price.

    There are a big and growing red flags with Stewart's peripherals but at the same time when have we had a prospect whose stats have so badly mismatched the scouting reports? 94-95, plus slider, decent command. That guy should be striking out A ball hitters at a higher rate. Is he being failed by the Twins minor leagues somehow? Are the reports just false? Something doesn't add up.

    Edited by Willihammer

     

    Well Falvey didn't draft him. Maybe a new VP who isn't personally invested in Stewart would be willing to move him for a fair price.
    There are a big and growing red flags with Stewart's peripherals but at the same time when have we had a prospect whose stats have so badly mismatched the scouting reports? 94-95, plus slider, decent command. That guy should be striking out A ball hitters at a higher rate. Is he being failed by the Twins minor leagues somehow? Are the reports just false? Something doesn't add up.

     

    Is that really Stewart's stuff though? Minor league velocities tend to be exaggerated, and there's been back and forth in the past about how effective his slider really is. I've read comments to the effect that he is sitting 90-92 with 3 OK secondary pitches, making him basically a junkballer without command.

     

    I haven't scouted him, but you're right that something doesn't add up, and the obvious explanation is that his numbers reflect the mediocre quality and location of his pitches. 




    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...