Ranking the Twins' First-Round Picks In the Falvey-Levine Era

MLB draft analysis from one year to the next can be challenging because franchises rarely draft in the same position from one year to the next. Also, some draft classes are stronger than others, and teams can try to save money with their first-round pick to use in later rounds. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have tended to prefer specific player types with their first-round picks, and some of those players have fared better than others to this point in their professional careers. 

There is a hierarchy in the Twins front office that might cloud who is responsible for drafting players. Falvey is ultimately responsible for everything in the organization. Still, his role in the draft is minimal, other than setting the team's focus on what they look for as an organization. The men at the organization's top can get the credit or blame for drafts while having minimal to do with the process. The team's scouting director Sean Johnson has the ultimate say on who they take in the draft, and the credit/blame should reside with him. 

9. Keoni Cavaco, IF
13th Overall Pick in 2019
Evaluators viewed Cavaco as a reach when the Twins picked him, and the club's faith in him has yet to be rewarded. He began his career as a shortstop, moved to third base in 2022, and has only played first base this season. He's been slightly below the average age of the competition at each level, but he has never put it together on either side of the ball. In over 220 minor-league games, he has hit .217/.273/.338 (.610) with a 318-to-55 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Earlier this week he was placed on the developmental list.

8. Aaron Sabato, 1B/DH
27th Overall Pick in 2020
The pandemic greatly impacted the 2020 MLB Draft, with clubs unable to scout players in the months leading into the draft. Minnesota took Sabato because his power was seen as a superior tool, with a .698 SLG in college. Sabato has posted a .776 OPS in three professional seasons with over 140 strikeouts per season while never hitting more than 22 home runs. He provides little to no defensive value and has been inconsistent at the plate. This pick looks like a swing and a miss by the Twins. 

7. Brent Rooker, DH
35th Overall Pick in 2017
Rooker looked like a big-league bust before a hot start in Oakland this year. In 64 games, he is hitting .255/.356/.491 (.846) with 12 doubles, 13 home runs, and a 142 OPS+. Minnesota included Rooker with Taylor Rogers in the trade for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan, and Brayan Medina. The Padres dealt him to the Royals last season, and the A's claimed him off waivers this winter. Now in his age-28 season, he's getting an extended look at the big-league level for the first time in his career. Following his hot start, he has cooled off significantly in recent weeks. 

6. Noah Miller, SS
36th Overall Pick in 2021
Miller is still very early in his professional career, so there is time for him to move up this list eventually. The Twins took Miller with their second pick in the 2021 MLB Draft out of high school in Wisconsin. In three professional seasons, Miller has been more than two years younger than the average age of the competition at his level. He's been used almost exclusively at shortstop with a half dozen appearances at second base. Across 186 games, he has hit .212/.323/.288 (.612) with 33 extra-base hits. During the 2023 season, Miller has faced older pitchers in all but two plate appearances. The Twins have faith that he will eventually be able to hold his own against older competition. 

5. Chase Petty, SP
26th Overall Pick in 2021
Petty made two appearances in the Twins organization before the team traded him to the Reds for Sonny Gray. In 2023, Petty is pitching at High-A, where he is over three years younger than the average age. He has allowed four earned runs (1.50 ERA) through six starts with a 26-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's a long way from the big leagues, and a lot can go wrong with a pitching prospect before their debut. The Reds have seen some success stories in developing hard-throwing high school pitchers, and they hope Petty can join this group. 

4. Trevor Larnach, OF
20th Overall Pick in 2018
The Twins drafted Larnach after he was one of the critical hitters on a powerhouse Oregon State team that won the College World Series. He posted tremendous numbers during his first full professional season between High-A and Double-A on his way to being named the Twins Minor League Player of the Year. In 126 games, he hit .309/.384/.458 (.842) with 30 doubles and 13 home runs. He was a consensus top-100 prospect entering the 2020 and 2021 seasons, but he hasn't put it all together at the big-league level, with a .690 OPS in 177 games. He crushes fastballs but struggles with breaking pitches, so he's struggled to stick with the Twins. 

3. Matt Wallner, OF
39th Overall Pick in 2019
Wallner fits the type of player this front office typically targets in the draft with college experience and strong power potential. He is the team's reigning Minor League Player of the Year after posting a .953 OPS between Double-A and Triple-A last season. During the 2023 season, the Twins have left him in the minors despite solid numbers with the Saints. In 49 games, he is hitting .298/.414/.547 (.961) with 17 doubles, two triples, and eight home runs. Wallner's offensive profile has a lot of swing and miss, but when he makes solid contact, the ball travels a long way. Minnesota must make room for him at the big-league level at some point in 2023. 

2. Royce Lewis, SS/3B
1st Overall Pick in 2017
Lewis can provide the most value out of any player on this list, especially now that he is finally healthy. He's missed parts of the last two seasons due to ACL surgery. Since returning, he has provided some critical hits for the Twins while also learning a new defensive position. In 16 games, he went 16-for-57 (.281 BA) with a .709 OPS and 20 strikeouts. It will be interesting to see how the Twins utilize Lewis in the coming years. Carlos Correa will likely get most of the reps at shortstop, and Lewis prefers to play infield. Is second base his eventual home if the team moves on from Jorge Polanco?

1. Brooks Lee, SS
8th Overall Pick in 2022
Lee entered the season as a consensus top-50 prospect after a pro debut where he posted an .839 OPS in 31 games. During the 2023 season, the Twins sent him back to Double-A, the level he finished at last season. He's hit .270/.348/.425 (.773) with 23 doubles, four home runs, and a 48-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 57 games. He seems unlikely to play shortstop at the big-league level, but he continues to play there in Double-A. Even with a slow start, Lee still has the potential to be a middle-of-the-order bat for the Twins for a long time.

How would you rank the team's first-round picks since 2017? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

Interested in learning more about the Minnesota Twins' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!