Winter Meetings Bring a Dose of Cold Reality for Twins

By all accounts, the Twins entered this offseason – and these Winter Meetings – with legitimate intentions to aggressively pursue high-end talent. They've come up empty thus far, despite their efforts to follow through.

The Twins reportedly extended to Zack Wheeler a nine-figure offer, which would've doubled their highest previous free agent commitment, but the right-hander chose Philadelphia. This exercise served to remind the Twins, and their fans, of two disadvantages working against the front office as it wades into the deeper waters: Money and Minny.

Money. It's the sole focal point for some fans, which has become draining. Yes, the Twins (and many other suitors) were outbid for Wheeler. They never could've even dreamed of approaching the contracts handed out to Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, or Anthony Rendon. While this will inevitably invoke utterances of "Cheap Pohlads" from a certain crowd, those folks need to face facts: The Twins are never going to have the uninhibited spending flexibility of a Philadelphia, New York, Washington, or Los Angeles.

Minny. Look, I know most Minnesotans hate this shorthand but I needed it for the wordplay so please let it slide. As much as I love Minneapolis, I recognize that we're not the most appealing destination for high-profile free agents and their families. Money talks, but it's narrow-minded to believe that's the overriding factor in every decision, especially for the most in-demand players. All four of the aforementioned free agents – Wheeler, Cole, Strasburg, Rendon – went from famed big-market cities to other famed big-market cities. Wheeler, from what I've heard, notified the Twins more or less that he wasn't interested.

Lament and loathe these realities all you want, but they are the hindrances faced by this organization, and they've become unignorable in the early stretch of this offseason.

As the latest example of uncontrollable influences, Madison Bumgarner signed with Arizona yesterday for five years and $85 million. That's a price point the Twins – who were said to be heavily interested in the left-hander – could've matched, if they pleased, but it sounds like Bumgarner had his heart set on Arizona from the jump. He doesn't have horses in the Minneapolis area. What are ya gonna do?

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Money isn't an overwhelming encumbrance – ownership's willingness to spend was made clear by the apparent green-lighting of a massive offer to Wheeler, which healthily exceeds the amount Bumgarner got – but the Twins can't endlessly outbid competitors with deep pockets and built-in preference. I'm not sure why fans would yearn for it.

There's truth to this quote from Dodgers president Andrew Friedman a few years back: "If you're always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent." That speaks somewhat to the Twins' dilemma this winter. But it's much easier said by a guy whose virtually unlimited resources enable him to absorb irrational long-term deals with high risk.

Friedman's Dodgers came up short in their pursuit of top names on the market, so now they've got money to burn as they train their gaze on the next tier of free agents, for whom the Twins are also trying to compete. Incidentally, Los Angeles faces its own perception issues (Rendon cited LA's "Hollywood lifestyle" in opting for Anaheim) but needless to say, the Twins will struggle to woo Hyun-Jun Ryu, whom they continue to target...

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... Or even a significant offensive upgrade like Josh Donaldson ...

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I believe the Twins are serious about doing everything within their power to strike a sensible deal with these players. And maybe, with the right guy, they'll go well beyond the point of rationality to do so. (One comment from Derek Falvey at the Winter Meetings I found interesting: "Sometimes you’re a little more risk-seeking, sometimes you’re a little more risk-averse ... But I think we try to evaluate each decision on its own merits.") Maybe in spite of that, it still won't be enough. That is the nature of free agency, which gets oversimplified by the subset of fans who view every free agency pursuit as the equivalent of an open auction, where teams are raising cards and bidding solely based on price.

If they can't find a fit on the free agent market, then the Twins will have to turn their full focus toward a trade. Here, the overpay will hurt even more, but that'll be necessary if they want to acquire a real difference-maker. Teams are protecting the kind of controllable rotation-fronters Minnesota desires more than ever, and execs have remarked on the generally steep asking prices. (The light return Cleveland got for Corey Kluber would seem to contradict this thinking... or maybe it just means the league is generally convinced the soon-to-be 34-year-old's days as an ace are finished.)

A trade like Jake Cave for Elieser Hernandez could make sense on its own merit – just as the "stabilizing" additions of Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, and Alex Avila do – but it's not the needle-moving splash this offseason seems to need. At least, not on the surface. And this is the developing reality Twins fans may need to come to grips with: An offseason defined more by savvy than splash.

Few outsiders viewed the original Odorizzi acquisition as a bold one, but he quickly transformed into one of the American League's better starters. Ditto for Pineda. Last offseason's splashiest free agent pitcher, Patrick Corbin, certainly delivered during his first year in Washington, but his 4.8 fWAR ranked third among newly signed pitchers, behind the decidedly less splashy Lance Lynn (6.8) and Charlie Morton (6.1). The Twins were known to be interested in Morton before he signed in Tampa Bay, and had signed Lynn the previous spring (unseating Anibal Sanchez, who ended up being a key contributor in Washingnton's World Series run this year alongside Corbin).

This front office has shown a keen eye for pitching talent, and a special ability to develop arms. Three years after taking over a 103-loss team with chronic and pervasive pitching issues, their 2019 staff ranked third in the majors in fWAR, right between the Dodgers and Astros. We should show some faith in their ability to find the next Lynn or Morton, while acknowledging their limitations when it comes to landing the next Corbin.

Chilly as it may feel to some at a time where baseball's Hot Stove is being revitalized, the reality of that path as the one the Twins need to follow has become increasingly evident.

(If you're feeling aggrieved about this and wish to find guidance, our guy Stu's got you covered.)

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