Will This Week Be the Last We See of Byron Buxton in Center Field?

He's never played an inning anywhere else, and hardly anyone has had the temerity to suggest that he might. When you think Byron Buxton, you think of center field. His picturesque athletic proportions, speed that seems to cost him less effort than it costs others, and incredible feel for making the play once the ball comes within his reach make Buxton a breathtaking defender. His nickname comes partially from the fact that his name bumps up against it, but it's also an invitation to remember that Willie Mays's teammates called him "Buck," too--first for his paradoxically ungainly grace and speed, but later with reverential respect. Buxton, like Mays, draws your eye on the field at all times, and commands his teammates' awe both with prodigious talent and with his willingness to play through maladies of all kinds.

Yet, it might soon be time to dislodge the once-great fielder from a position that has contributed to his injury trouble over the years. Sadly, more than was true of Mays, Buxton's body has broken down and his athleticism has faded, even at age 30. This December, he'll turn 31, and his defense is in decline.

In the only approximation of a full season he ever played afield, back in 2017, Buxton chalked up 23 Defensive Runs Saved, according to Sports Info Solutions. Over the following five seasons, he only played 2,192 1/3 innings in total, but he was worth about 20 DRS per 1,000 frames--a remarkable rate that varied little from year to year, even as he played through minor injuries and had to return the season after more serious ones.

Those halcyon days, alas, are fading into memory. Infamously, Buxton didn't take up center field even once in 2023, relegated to DH duties full-time to manage a knee injury and survive the season as best he could. Coming back this year, he's played a lot out there, by his standards. His 727 innings in center are the most he's played since that 2017 campaign. Yet, he's only been worth 1 DRS--and there are some even worse indicators than that.

According to Baseball Prospectus's Range Out Score, which is a defensive rate stat, Buxton was pretty safely 5% better than the league average at reaching fly balls throughout his prime. That number fell to 1.9 in 2022, though, and this season, it's a shock to the system: -4.2. Buxton's range, by one model focused on scaling that very skill carefully, is now markedly worse than average. 

Baseball Savant offers a spin on this called Success Rate, which basically takes all playable fly balls and asks what percentage of them an outfielder catches. Buxton's rate hovered in the range between 92 and 96 percent in every season he spent in center, prior to this one. This year, he's at 87 percent. It's a stark change, for the worse.

We've still seen some moments that remind us what a wonder Buxton can be. We've still seen some heroics from him. On balance, though, the guy who changed the game for the better from his position in the outfield is gone. He'll keep running into walls, and keep hurling himself after the ball when his hips and knees allow him to get close to it, and that will still result in some incredible plays. It will also still result in some injuries, which are devastating to a franchise built so much around Buxton amid a pattern of shrinking payrolls. And worse, all that effort and speed and grace and excellence will keep becoming more infrequent--not because the spirit isn't willing, but because plainly, the body is only very intermittently able.

What to do about it if Buxton can't stay in center beyond this season is a big, daunting, sad question. It's impossible to answer it right now. Nonetheless, we have to admit that it's there, staring us in the face. Could he stay healthier and resist the temptation to break himself against the walls if he moved to left or right field? Can he be the major, consistent offensive threat he's been for much of this season if he moves back to a full-fledged DH role?

This week at Target Field, soak in Buxton, and pray to see some big plays from him. The Twins need them, and we all need a few more reminders of what a joy he has been over the years. There might not be any more such plays coming on the other side of a winter that suddenly both promises and ominously threatens change.