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    White Sox Winning Winter Meetings Through Day 1


    Seth Stohs

    The Winter Meetings are always a fun time for baseball fans. If you follow twitter or MLB Trade Rumors, there are constantly updates throughout the week, at all hours of the day. There is no question that the Chicago White Sox won Day 1 of the Winter Meetings. Here is a look at what happened on Day 1 in terms of Twins news. (No, it will not be empty below.)

    Image courtesy of Jim Cowsert, USA Today

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    OVERVIEW

    The Winter Meetings were originally set up as a meeting for all minor league teams. Then major league teams started crashing the party and since then, it has become a media Mecca.

    Contrary to popular belief, it isn’t just a place where GMs meet with agents and other GMs. Front offices of the teams go to have meetings.

    That said, of course, all the teams are there. All the GMs are there. All the agents are there. There are meetings.

    However, how many of the rumors will turn into actual transactions during this week? A few will, and we’ll try to stay on top of everything here at Twins Daily.

    WHITE SOX ARE BUSY

    Earlier in the offseason, the White Sox signed 1B Adam LaRoche, and then they signed lefty reliever Zach Duke.

    Rumors throughout the night were that the White Sox and A’s were in serious discussions about Jeff Samardzija. Sox infielder Marcus Simien, who was a top 100 prospect in Baseball America a year ago, was one name mentioned. It’s hard for me to believe he would be the key piece to such a trade. I think the White Sox would need to give up a higher-ranking prospect to get Samardzija.

    Then as midnight approached, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted that the White Sox signed closer David Robertson for four years and $46 million. The long-time set- up man for Mariano Rivera finally got the opportunity to close last year. He turned in a solid season and got his big pay day.

    There are rumors that the White Sox still could be a player for third baseman Chase Headley.

    Teaming “Shark” with lefties Chris Sale and Jose Quintana certainly gives the South Siders some quality pitching.

    COLABELLO CLAIMED BY THE BLUE JAYS

    Late this morning, the Toronto Blue Jays announced that they had claimed first baseman Chris Colabello. He comes off the Twins 40-man roster, putting the roster at 39. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of days. Were the Twins just trying to clear up a spot for a potential free agent signing? Were they just opening up a roster spot so that they can make a Rule 5 selection on Thursday? Could other players currently be on the waiver wire to create more roster spots so that the Twins could do both?

    Colabello’s story was (and remains) remarkable. The Twins signed him before the 2012 season out of independent baseball where he spent eight seasons. He made the New Britain roster and raked that whole season. In 2013, he was invited to big league spring training and became a hero for Team Italy in the World Baseball Classic. He was named the International League Rookie of the Year and MVP for his great play in AAA Rochester. In May, all that time spent culminated with his big league debut. And, of course, he made the Twins opening day roster. He was named the American League co-Player of the Month in April. Unfortunately, he was jammed on a pitch late in the month and had thumb problems that affected him the rest of the season. Even recently, he learned from an MRI that there was still inflammation.

    It’s a savvy move for the Blue Jays. The powerful Colabello showed that when healthy he can hit and be quite productive in the big leagues. The Blue Jays traded Adam Lind in the offseason to Milwaukee, but then they acquired first baseman Justin Smoak. Colabello could compete with another former Twins player, Danny Valencia, for right-handed platoon at-bats. The other thing is that Colabello still has an option year remaining so he can provide the Jays with powerful depth. Of course, seeing how Toronto has operated the last couple of seasons, it’s also possible that they could now try to sneak Colabello through waivers, too.

    OLIVA, KAAT FALL SHY OF COOPERSTOWN

    At 1:00 central time on Monday, the Hall of Fame gathered the media together in San Diego to tell them that the Veteran’s Committee had elected no one to the Hall of Fame. I think a press release might have done the job.

    For enshrinement, a player would have needed 12 of the 16 Veteran’s Committee members to vote for them. Tony Oliva and Dick Allen both received 11 votes. Jim Kaat received 10 votes.

    Can you imagine being one vote away from receiving baseball’s ultimate honor? One vote! Now, I have said many times in the past that I don’t think that Oliva or Kaat should be in the Hall of Fame, but whenever they are up for election again, I will hope like crazy that they make it.

    MASTERSON UPDATE

    1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson posted several tweets yesterday indicating that the Twins have been unable to meet with free agent starter Justin Masterson. It may be that his agent hasn’t been able to work out a time to talk to Terry Ryan. It’s also possible that Masterson just isn’t interested in the Twins.

    Listen, the reason that Masterson is appealing to many as a potential free agent acquisition is that he was coming off his age-29 season in which he posted a 7-9 record with a 5.88 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP between Cleveland and St. Louis. The thought was that he might want to sign a cheap, one-year deal with someone to regain market value, so why not the Twins?

    Part of the allure was that he has some upside and typically has eaten a lot of innings. However, since the hot stove league began, it’s been suggested by many that there are a lot of teams, likely well into double-digit teams, who are interested. That creates a bit of a bidding war. Frankly, it’s not a bidding war I would want to get into. His ERA+ in 2013 was 110, in 2012 it was 79, in 2011, it was 122, in 2010 it was 84 and in 2009 it was 94. That’s not the kind of guy you get into a bidding war over.

    OTHER FREE AGENTS OF NOTE

    LaVelle E. Neal of the Star Tribune posted throughout the day that the Twins have been quite active talking to agents for some free agent pitchers. That sounds good, but the four pitchers that he is linking the Twins with are Logan Ondrusek, Dustin McGowan, John Axford and Alexi Ogando. All four would be relief pitchers.

    None of those names are terribly exciting on a major league contract. I realize that the Twins can improve their bullpen. I just personally prefer going the minor league signing route or using starting pitchers who are not in the starting rotation. Then again, I’m good with anyone on a minor league contract.

    TERRY RYAN NOTES

    In his Monday media discussions, Terry Ryan indicated that he had no interest in the Toronto Blue Jays CEO/President position. He said he is from Minnesota, it’s where his family is and will remain. This is no surprise, of course, since Ryan had the opportunity to be the Blue Jays general manager in 2001 when the Twins were on the contraction chopping block. He could have left then but decided that he was staying.

    He also said that Ron Gardenhire is likely to take the 2015 year off and then determine what he wants to do in 2016. He will continue to have a standing job offer with the Twins.

    COMING SOON: MINNESOTA TWINS PROSPECT HANDBOOK 2015

    Much more will be coming throughout this week, but this year’s Twins Prospect Handbook will be available within a week, possibly even as early as Friday. Co-Authors Jeremy Nygaard, Cody Christie and I are waiting until after the Rule 5 draft to release the book so that we can add (or subtract) any players affected that day.

    This year’s Prospect Handbook (my seventh) is huge, and it’s packed with Twins minor league information. There are prospect profiles on approximately 150 Twins minor leaguers. Anyone from the Gulf Coast League through guys whose Rookie of the Year status remain. You’ll find stories on our choices for Starting Pitcher (JO Berrios), Relief Pitcher (Brandon Peterson), Hitter (Mitch Garver) and Manager (Doug Mientkiewicz) of the Year. Jeremy takes a look at the Twins draft in 2014 and looks ahead to the 2015 draft when the Twins have the sixth selection. Cody took a look at the injuries. We also had articles from Steve Buhr, Eric Pleiss and former Twins minor leaguer AJ Pettersen.

    I’m also excited to say that St. Paul Pioneer Press’s Mike Berardino wrote a terrific foreword for the book. We also want to thank Linwood Ferguson for his pictures of the Ft. Myers players and Steve Buhr for pictures from Cedar Rapids.

    As I mentioned, there will be much more information coming in the next few days. If you’re looking for a Christmas gift or stocking stuffer, consider getting a copy of the 2015 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook.

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    WHAT WILL HAPPEN ON DAY 2?

    The White Sox won Day 1 of the Winter Meetings in San Diego. What will happen on Day 2? Will the Twins make any news?

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    The 22-year-old went 2-for-5 on Friday night, his fourth straight multi-hit game. Heading into the week, he was hitting .246/.328/.404 (.732). Four games later, he is hitting .303/.361/.447 (.808).

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    Uh.....you don't think adding those guys makes the Sox better? Wow.

     

     "any time you spend $40M a year your team should get better".

     

    What I meant by that is they have gotten better.  It would be hard to spend $40M and not get better. But I don't think they got $40M better.  That is all.

    White Sox are in a very different position than the Twins. Similar records the last two years, but the White Sox have a stud startig pitcher and hitter in their prime, plus a couple borderline stars, all controlled relatively inexpensively for 4-6 years.

     

    I would not expect them to make similar moves as the Twins.

    I would not have been thrilled if the Twins made this signing. $13M a year for ages 30-33 corner OF. He is already a negative defensive player (-2.1 dWAR the last two years). And I don't think his offense offsets that. Career OPS + of 103.

    To be fair, dWAR includes a positional adjustment, not sure if that is really appropriate. He's actually just 6 runs below average defensively for his position each of the last two years (about -0.6 WAR per year). By comparison, Hunter is 14 runs below average each year, and of course turning 40 midseason...

     

    Also quoting career OPS+ doesn't seem quite right for a late bloomer who debuted at age 20. Cabrera has a 124 OPS+ over the last 4 years. At the same age, Hunter had a career OPS+ of 100 weighted down by early career struggles too -- it jumps to 108 just considering age 26-29 like Cabrera. Which figure was more instructive going forward?

    To be fair, dWAR includes a positional adjustment, not sure if that is really appropriate. He's actually just 6 runs below average defensively for his position each of the last two years (about -0.6 WAR per year). By comparison, Hunter is 14 runs below average each year, and of course turning 40 midseason...

     

    Also quoting career OPS+ doesn't seem quite right for a late bloomer who debuted at age 20. Cabrera has a 124 OPS+ over the last 4 years. At the same age, Hunter had a career OPS+ of 100 weighted down by early career struggles too -- it jumps to 108 just considering age 26-29 like Cabrera. Which figure was more instructive going forward?

     

    Well, I don't know that some of your comps are great either.

     

    Melky's four year stretch with the 124 OPS + includes a season at 157 in which he tested positive for performance enhancing drugs.   The three last seasons in which he did not fail a drug test average to about 111 and frankly, none of us know that he wasn't using in 2011 when he had a 121 OPS +, well above his career averages up to that point.

     

    And I don't get the Hunter/Melky comp.  One was paid $10M for one season so he could give pep talks and help the development of the future. I think the Twins view that as an investment in the 2016-2020 Twins.  Melky was paid $42M over three years to help them win games.

     

    I guess the broader point for me is if the Twins were a .500 team and wanted to go out in free agency and ramp up for a world series win, I hope they would get more for what the White Sox have spent this off-season.  If they re-sign Shark at $20M a year, they would have increased payroll $50M and had Shark, Duke, LaRoche, and Melky Cabrera to show for it, and lost some prospects in the process.  Yeah, they are better. You can't question that, but I think they could have spent that money in a smarter fashion.

    Edited by tobi0040

    Would be curious to hear how you think the White Sox could have better spent ~$40 mil for 2015.

     

    Well, that is a tough response because the free agency period is only about half over.  And I don't know that free agency alone appcoach if the best one.

     

    But here are just a few comments regarding the signings.

     

    Adam LaRoche - His career OPS + is 114 and he is 35 years old.  They paid him more than the A's paid a 28 year old Billy Butler, who has a career OPS + of 119.  But I am not sure I would spend $12.5M on a 35 year old DH with a career OPS of .811.  I would think you could find that production via a platoon rather easily.

     

    Duke - This was a buy high, lots of risk.  One guy that has done it for a longer period of time is Neshek.  I would rather have given him 2/13 over 3/15 to Duke. Relievers can be good/bad so frequently that I would prefer shorter deals. But Neskek's ERA+ has been 288, 117, and 197 the last three years.  His career ERA is 2.78.  I would have gone that route.  Such a small sample size to go off of with a reliever. Duke gave up 16 ER last year, but had another 3 unearned runs.  13 IP in 2012.  31 in 2013 and 58 last year.  Extremely unimpressive career numbers, 4.17 ERA, 1.45 WHIP. Almost 11 hits per 9, 5.0 k per 9

     

    Jeff S. - He has not been good for that long. His career ERA+ is remarkably average at 103.  I just think now they are married to the guy and are going to hand him $100M. 

     

    Melky - 30+ year old outfielder that is a negative player defensively and league average or so offensively by his career numbers.   this deal looks like the Victorino deal, but Victorino actually has slightly better offensive numbers.  They got the same contract and Shane and he could be had for a can of pepsi right now.

    Edited by tobi0040

    As a fan, (especially those who are WS fans-not me!--whether they spent $40 MM or whatever or these guys is irrelevant.  What really matters is will the WS fans be better entertained for what they spend for entertainment?  The $40MM is the owner's money and not the fan's money.

    Well, that is a tough response because the free agency period is only about half over.  And I don't know that free agency alone appcoach if the best one.

     

    But here are just a few comments regarding the signings.

     

    Adam LaRoche - His career OPS + is 114 and he is 35 years old.  They paid him more than the A's paid a 28 year old Billy Butler, who has a career OPS + of 119.  But I am not sure I would spend $12.5M on a 35 year old DH with a career OPS of .811.  I would think you could find that production via a platoon rather easily.

     

    Duke - This was a buy high, lots of risk

     

    Jeff S. - He has not been good for that long. His career ERA+ is remarkably average at 103.  I just think now they are married to the guy and are going to hand him $100M. 

     

    Melky - 30+ year old outfielder that is a negative player defensively and league average or so offensively by his career numbers.   this deal looks like the Victorino deal, but Victorino actually has slightly better offensive numbers.  They got the same contract and Shane and he could be had for a can of pepsi right now.

     

    Using career numbers isn't helpful in this case, Melky is vastly above league average in his last 4 years. To reiterate, Melky has a .351 OBP over the last 4 years, and also had a .351 OBP last year.  Victorino is now 34, Melky just turned 30. Victorino's deal with Boston was made at age 32- which would be the last year of Melky's 3-year contract, not age 30, as it is now.

     

    Victorino's numbers at the same point in time as Melky, that is, from age 26-29, are inferior to Melky's.    

     

    Victorino 26-29  .281/.346/.437/.793  wRC+ 106

    Cabrera 26-29  .309/.351/.458/.810 wRC+ 122

     

    And then Victorino went out and had his peak WAR years at age 30 and 32 (5.4 and 5.8), with a 2.6 WAR year in-between.  Do you think the White Sox didn't do their homework?  Melky's career numbers in US Cellular-  

     

    .336/.366/.591/.957  

    Edited by jokin

    Well, that is a tough response because the free agency period is only about half over.  And I don't know that free agency alone appcoach if the best one.

     

    But here are just a few comments regarding the signings.Adam LaRoche - His career OPS + is 114 and he is 35 years old.  They paid him more than the A's paid a 28 year old Billy Butler, who has a career OPS + of 119.  But I am not sure I would spend $12.5M on a 35 year old DH with a career OPS of .811.  I would think you could find that production via a platoon rather easily.

     

    Duke - This was a buy high, lots of risk.  One guy that has done it for a longer period of time is Neshek.  I would rather have given him 2/13 over 3/15 to Duke. Relievers can be good/bad so frequently that I would prefer shorter deals. But Neskek's ERA+ has been 288, 117, and 197 the last three years.  His career ERA is 2.78.  I would have gone that route.  Such a small sample size to go off of with a reliever. Duke gave up 16 ER last year, but had another 3 unearned runs.  13 IP in 2012.  31 in 2013 and 58 last year.  Extremely unimpressive career numbers, 4.17 ERA, 1.45 WHIP. Almost 11 hits per 9, 5.0 k per 9

     

    Jeff S. - He has not been good for that long. His career ERA+ is remarkably average at 103.  I just think now they are married to the guy and are going to hand him $100M.

     

    Melky - 30+ year old outfielder that is a negative player defensively and league average or so offensively by his career numbers.   this deal looks like the Victorino deal, but Victorino actually has slightly better offensive numbers.  They got the same contract and Shane and he could be had for a can of pepsi right now.

    If your biggest issues with their moves are "They could have had Butler instead of LaRoche", "Zach Duke used to be a mediocre starter", "They might give a bad contract to Samardzija later", and "Shane Victorino got injured at age 33" (one year beyond Cabrera's contract), I think you're picking nits.

     

    Nobody says they got perfect players, or even made perfect moves, but they've spent ~$40 mil for 2015 about as well as they could have so far, if you ask me.

     

    Obviously could change if they give a bad contract to Samardzija, or if they don't adequately address their remaining positions of need.

    I somehow forgot the 50 million they gave a closer.

     

    So next years payroll could have 60m locked into five players and one potentially bein a star (shark) at a non bullpen position. (Assumes 20m annual extension)

    First of all, you keep assuming a Samardzija extension where none has been made so far.

     

    Second, please tell me how they get multiple "stars" at similar cost (years/dollars/players) that will make their team notably better.

     

    Adam LaRoche - His career OPS + is 114 and he is 35 years old.  They paid him more than the A's paid a 28 year old Billy Butler, who has a career OPS + of 119.  But I am not sure I would spend $12.5M on a 35 year old DH with a career OPS of .811.  I would think you could find that production via a platoon rather easily.

     

     

     

     

    I'm guessing that LaRoche is going to play a ton of games, probably the majority of his games at 1st, not DH.  The Sox didn't need a platoon player, they needed an experienced LH bat to break up their heavy RH tendency in the middle of the lineup.  LaRoche also has 4 years of postseason experience.  Did they overpay?  Maybe a little, but he is by far the best FA option that met all of the criteria the Sox needed, plus it's only a 2 year deal, and he definitely isn't an Adam Dunn rerun.

    29m to two relievers and a average Dh is about as good as you could spend?

     

    I guess it is as much where they spent as it is who they got.

     

    I agree in theory with what you are saying but holistically I think the Sox addressed some pressing needs.  Their starters typically gave them the lead going into to 6th inning but their bullpen failed far too often last year.  Even though they over payed they had to address that to get better and they did.  Their GM says they are not done addressing the bullpen.  

     

    They have two young very good starting pitchers adding a third makes their rotation as good as any in the division.  They didn't give up the farm and Smarzda could be a bridge to Rodon or maybe they will sign or extend him as well.  I think they have flexibility there and they still have a very good shortstop and I think 2nd baseman in the minors for infield depth.

     

    They lacked clutch hitting last year and seemed to struggle to score runs.  They went out and got a guy who can get on base and hits extremely well.

     

    Put it all together and they have addressed a lot of the things they needed to become competitive in the division.  They lack depth in areas but they excel in others.  I think those moves have the potential to make then a very competitive team.  

     

    Could they have done better for less.  Sure I think they could have but they had to outbid other teams to get what they wanted and overpay they did.  I don't agree with the money they gave to the closer that is really my only quibble with the moves.  The rest seem solid and address significant needs.  FWIW I think they did a nice job.

    I somehow forgot the 50 million they gave a closer.

     

    So next years payroll could have 60m locked into five players and one potentially bein a star (shark) at a non bullpen position. (Assumes 20m annual extension)

     

    It was 4 years/$46M for Roberston. And yet with all of that money, their payroll has only gone up, net-net around $25M.  From around $90M to $115M.  

     

    Melky doesn't have the potential to be a star?   We may have different interpretations, but anybody that gets an 8-figure AAV contract is, would seem to be, by definition, a baseball star.

     

    Shark is likely worth the extension- that's the going rate for #1s and #2s, the Shark is very durable.  And in IMO, you worry far too much about the $60M on five players- the vast majority of their players are cost controlled, rising players.  Ramirez will likely come off the books soon, maybe after this year. The Sox went out over the last two years and bought a set of complementary quality players to build around Chris Sale in his peak production, late-20s seasons (He's a FA in 2018).  You have to strike while the iron is hot, it costs money to do so.

    Edited by jokin

    29m to two relievers and a average Dh is about as good as you could spend?

     

    I guess it is as much where they spent as it is who they got.

     

    I think you are dismissing the costs to getting better via Free Agency- if they can be absorbed without crippling the team long-term, what's the big deal?... and you're minimiizing the quality of Robertson and... LaRoche- he isn't just a DH! "Average"?... his .817 OPS was 8th best among 1st baseman in 2014.  That .817 OPS would have been 4th best among qualified DH's.

     

    Robertson has been really, really good over the last four years, pitching in the NY pressure cooker, and being asked to take the place of the greatest closer of all time.  

     

    4-year stats-  K/9 12.35 K% 34.0% WHIP 1.10 BA .200  ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA 2.20/2.40/2.46/2.20  ERA+ 220

    Edited by jokin

    Using career numbers isn't helpful in this case, Melky is vastly above league average in his last 4 years. To reiterate, Melky has a .351 OBP over the last 4 years, and also had a .351 OBP last year.  Victorino is now 34, Melky just turned 30. Victorino's deal with Boston was made at age 32- which would be the last year of Melky's 3-year contract, not age 30, as it is now.

     

    Victorino's numbers at the same point in time as Melky, that is, from age 26-29, are inferior to Melky's.    

     

    Victorino 26-29  .281/.346/.437/.793  wRC+ 106

    Cabrera 26-29  .309/.351/.458/.810 wRC+ 122

     

    And then Victorino went out and had his peak WAR years at age 30 and 32 (5.4 and 5.8), with a 2.6 WAR year in-between.  Do you think the White Sox didn't do their homework?  Melky's career numbers in US Cellular-  

     

    .336/.366/.591/.957  

     

    On the great four years, they are skewed by the year he used PED's (157 OPS+).  The year prior, he was in the mid 120's, well above his career norms. He could have been using.  If you remove just his 157 year he falls to 111. No longer vastly above league averages. Factor in negative defense, no I don't think he will be a star, especially from 30-33.

     

    He has only played 34 games at US Cellular.  Seems like a small sample

    Edited by tobi0040

    I think you are dismissing the costs to getting better via Free Agency- if they can be absorbed without crippling the team long-term, what's the big deal?... and you're minimiizing the quality of Robertson and... LaRoche- he isn't just a DH! "Average"?... his .817 OPS was 8th best among 1st baseman in 2014.  That .817 OPS would have been 4th best among qualified DH's.

     

    Robertson has been really, really good over the last four years, pitching in the NY pressure cooker, and being asked to take the place of the greatest closer of all time.  

     

    4-year stats-  K/9 12.35 K% 34.0% WHIP 1.10 BA .200  ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA 2.20/2.40/2.46/2.20  ERA+ 220

     

    I know you overpay in free agency.  That was half the argument I was trying to make.  FA is the last place I would want to get a closer, for example. Not a great place to get a DH.  The Twins got a dominant one in house and signed to a team friendly deal with many options. I believe we could have two other good closers from the 2nd and I believe 4th round (Burdi and Reed).  I also philosophically don't get how a closer is worth $12M and that admittedly plays into my opinion.  $12M at 60 IP is saying that a top 10 starter that goes 220 IP is worth $44M (both are 200k an inning). I am of the belief that you can lose the game by a bad 4th inning the same as a bad 9th.

     

    If you take the qualifiers out, LaRoche was the 13th best offensive 1B.  Defensively he had a dWAR of -1 almost exclusively at 1B.  That is a very bad defensive 1B.  In his first year, Mauer was only a -.2 and my guess is Mauer would have been positive in the second half. That sounds about like league average to me.

    If you take the qualifiers out, LaRoche was the 13th best offensive 1B. Defensively he had a dWAR of -1 almost exclusively at 1B. That is a very bad defensive 1B. In his first year, Mauer was only a -.2 and my guess is Mauer would have been positive in the second half. That sounds about like league average to me.

    I am only going to say this once more: B-Ref dWAR includes the positional adjustment. Look at Rfield instead. LaRoche was exactly a league average defensive 1B last year -- the negative part of his dWAR is simply the WAR penalty applied to all first basemen.

    I am only going to say this once more: B-Ref dWAR includes the positional adjustment. Look at Rfield instead. LaRoche was exactly a league average defensive 1B last year -- the negative part of his dWAR is simply the WAR penalty applied to all first basemen.

     

    Thankyou.  By all accounts from the experts, LaRoche is a very competent 1st baseman.

    On the great four years, they are skewed by the year he used PED's (157 OPS+).  The year prior, he was in the mid 120's, well above his career norms. He could have been using.  If you remove just his 157 year he falls to 111. No longer vastly above league averages. Factor in negative defense, no I don't think he will be a star, especially from 30-33.

     

    He has only played 34 games at US Cellular.  Seems like a small sample

     

    Melky had better numbers this year than "the year prior" that you refer to (and  a better ISO).  You may as well argue that he's used PEDs in 2014, as well.  And then you used Viciedo as an example why Cabrera would fail, even though Viciedo had his two best years between 30 and 32- the exact time frame for Melky's contract with the White Sox.

     

    The contract is from ages 30-32, not 33. Melky has the highest BA among LF over the last 4 years and the 4th most hits. Defensively, he also has the 3rd highest ARM rating, both last year, and over the last 4 yeas, for LFers. 147 PAs at US Cellular, not enough to say he'll duplicate those career numbers, but more than enough to suggest that he tends to do well there. Jose Bautista obviously likes Target Field, and he has less than half of the PAs that Melky has at US Cellular- his numbers in Chicago played a part in Hahn offering Melky the contract.

    Edited by jokin

    Jokin,

     

    I would suggest Bautista and Cabrera doing well against the white sox and twins over the last 10 years has more to do with the pitching Than the stadium.

     

    In 2012 he failed a drug test and had an ops plus 30 points higher than the other three in that sample. I am not sure where the disagreement lies there.

    Jokin,

     

    I would suggest Bautista and Cabrera doing well against the white sox and twins over the last 10 years has more to do with the pitching Than the stadium.

     

    In 2012 he failed a drug test and had an ops plus 30 points higher than the other three in that sample. I am not sure where the disagreement lies there.

     

    No one else has come close to Bautista in TF, except for Thome.

     

    As far as the White Sox pitching and Melky,  here's a link to the MLB team pitching numbers, since Melky entered the major leagues in 2005, or, the last 10 years... note that the White Sox are rated the #1MLB pitching team in terms of WAR over the last 10 years, so it's easy to conjecture that Rick Hahn surmised that the White Sox pitching has less to do with Melky's hitting prowess at US Cellular than the stadium itself:

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2005&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

    Edited by jokin

     

    If you take the qualifiers out, LaRoche was the 13th best offensive 1B. 

     

    At 1B== 4th in OPS.  8th in wOBA. 9th in wRC+.  And look for LaRoche's HR totals to go up in 2015, balls fly out of US Cellular at a 45% higher rate than Nationals Park (which was the 2nd lowest park in terms of HR output).

    Edited by jokin

    I wish the Twins would just be like the White Sox. Or was it the Cardinals?

     

    Le sigh...

    I don't think anyone here is making that argument, at least not recently in the discussion.  The claim being debated is tobi's "I think they [the White Sox] could have spent that money in a smarter fashion."

     

    I and others frankly admitted these moves wouldn't make sense for the Twins.  But that doesn't mean that in total they are bad moves, or notably sub-optimal moves, for the White Sox.

    Semi-related thought:

     

    I really wanted the Twins to sign Melky Cabrera.

     

    However, once the Twins signed Hunter, adding Cabrera on top of Hunter's signing would be a bad move. Same thing if the Twins went after Alex Rios.

     

    I think the Twins could still add Colby Rasmus or make a trade for a good defensive CF, but once they signed Hunter, the other plodding corner outfield types rightfully fell off the Twins' radar.

     

    I really wanted the Twins to go after Brett Anderson and Justin Masterson on one year deals.

     

    Once the Twins added Ervin Santana (and had already missed on Masterson) I was glad they didn't add Anderson on top of that.

     

    All of the White Sox signings would have been bad additions for the Twins, but in aggregate they will improve the playoff hopes of the White Sox.

    At 1B== 4th in OPS.  8th in wOBA. 9th in wRC+.  And look for LaRoche's HR totals to go up in 2015, balls fly out of US Cellular at a 45% higher rate than Nationals Park (which was the 2nd lowest park in terms of HR output).

     

    MLB.com has him at 8th in OPS among 1B, and that includes the qualifier, which I believe is north of 400 AB's.  If you take that out I get 13th.

     

    http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+hitting&game_type='R'&season=2014&season_type=ANY&league_code='MLB'&sectionType=sp&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1418741277019&position='3'&sortColumn=ops&sortOrder='desc'&extended=0




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