Twins' Top Outfield Prospects Shine in Shortened Spring

Kirilloff stays hot

MLB Pipeline ranked Kirilloff as the No.10 prospect in baseball heading into the 2019 season. The 6-foot-2 inch lefty struggled with a wrist injury for most of the summer. He still mashed righties (.302 BA, .816 OPS) but struggled to hit lefties (.244 BA, .634 OPS), or for much power. For the first three months of the season, Kirilloff hit .272/.337/.381 with only four homers in 67 games. Perhaps finally healthy in August, Kirilloff looked like his usual self. He hit .311/.351/.500 with five homers and five doubles in 26 games. He continued to mash in the playoffs, hitting .381/.435/1.000 with a home run in four straight games.

When healthy, Kirilloff’s ability to hit and hit for power is as impactful as any. Those qualities look major league ready. He dominated spring training by hitting .429/.455/.810 with two homers and two doubles in 10 games. Now entering his age-23 season, Kirilloff was likely set to spend most of his season at Triple-A Rochester. Kirilloff has shown remarkable upside with what projects to be average defense in the outfield or at first base. His debut in Minnesota is moving tantalizingly closer. Keith Law recently ranked him as the No.9 prospect in baseball.

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In his breakout 2018, Kirilloff hit .348/.392/.578 with 20 homers in 130 games between Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers. He tied super-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for the fourth most home runs in the minors and ranked fourth among players who played at least 100 games in OPS (.970). He led the minors in hits (178), doubles (44), and total bases (296) and ranked second in RBI (101) behind Nate Lowe (102).

Larnach continues meteoric rise

Larnach won the National Championship at Oregon State after hitting .348/.463/.652 with 19 homers and 19 doubles in 2018. The Twins made him the 20th pick of the following draft and he hasn’t missed a beat since. He made his professional debut shortly after the draft and hit .303/.390/.500 between Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids.

The Twins have been rather aggressive with Larnach’s ascension. He started 2019 at High-A Fort Myers after only 24 games in Cedar Rapids. That wouldn’t be the end of his climb. He hit .316/.382/.459 in the pitching friendly Florida State League and the Twins deemed him ready for more. He joined top prospects Royce Lewis and Kirilloff in Pensacola at Double-A to finish the season and posted an identical OPS (.842) as he did in Fort Myers.

Larnach was awarded as the Twins’ Minor League Player of the Year. He was invited to spring training and of course, resumed raking. He hit .333/.467/.708 with three home runs, five walks, and just three strikeouts in 30 plate appearances. Every strong quality has a negative externality. Larnach sprays the ball all over the field, but because of this, has been knocked for a lack of pull power. He seemed to put that to rest this spring. He hit an absolute moonshot to right at Hammond Stadium against the Tampa Bay Rays on March 6th (I was there). The power should develop, and Larnach, standing at 6-foot-4 inches and weighing 225 pounds, has rested most doubts when they surface.

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The future is bright

So who is the better prospect? Well, it won’t matter unless a trade opportunity pops up. If the Twins were to pull the trigger on a blockbuster deal for, say, a frontline starting pitcher, one could speculate that Larnach or Kirilloff will be part of the package heading out. They’re both left-handed corner outfield bats with high floors and underrated ceilings. The Twins are in a good position to either pair them in their lineup, or trade one for a piece that could help bring them to the World Series.

The 2020 season may be not happen. That would be a major blow to a special Twins team. However, Larnach and Kirilloff gave us a glimpse of what we may see for the next several years. The duo combined to hit .378/.462/.756 with five home runs, two doubles and 10 RBI in 45 spring training at-bats. The pair is a big reason why the Twins have the No.7 farm system in all of baseball via MLB Pipeline.

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