Twins Select OF Alex Kirilloff with 15th Overall Pick

My premise is that World Series caliber teams have multiple all star caliber players. That is how you win in this league. The 2015 Royals had five all stars and the 2014 Giants had four. Both of those teams had other players who may make all star games in others years (some have).

My other premise is that the Twins are at a huge disadvantage with regards to signing an all star caliber player in free agency. We may get lucky here or there but otherwise it won't happen.

So if we draft guys whose ceiling is "above average RF" in the first round, how are we going to gather 3-5 all stars? Ben Revere. Wimmers. Waldorp. These guys were not going to be all stars

There's ceiling and there's likelihood to make it there (something that I suspect Kirilloff has over any of the pitchers).  All of that factors in.  There's also the whole slot thing which clearly the Twins were thinking about.  I personally would have went with one of the pitchers here, but I also wanted them to play the slot game.  It's quite possible the pitchers wouldn't play it (haven't looked up the other signings). It's also quite possible that they saw the talent they had at P in the low minors and don't think it matches up well to the talent they have at hitting in the low minors and so they wanted to round that out a bit more. 

I wanted to see a strategy that went out and got a bunch of HS talent.  They did that, which makes me very happy about this draft.  I'm not going to get too upset when they ended up with a HS OF at #1 whose ceiling is an above average RF (which isn't a bad ceiling) when I was hoping for a pitcher.  In that type of thing, I will trust the scouts.  Finding talent doesn't seem to be an issue in Minnesota.  Developing talent is a different story, and I suspect we will see some pretty significant changes in that area very soon.

This is a year where I would have been okay with college players. Because to be honest I trust the folks at Vanderbilt, LSU, etc to better develop players than I do the Twins.

Hopefully the entire staff is overvalued and new people are in charge of development.

Keith Law was critical of the Twins a few years ago about taking lower ceiling players in first round and relievers early. That is when I started researching it a bit and looked back at past drafts and frankly I think he is spot on. I think we are really blowing our best avenue to acquire talent. It isn't about one pick neccesarily, it is about an all encompassing strategy or lack thereof. Aiming too low and focusing on non premium/positions with abundant supply of talent and has played a role in our teams struggles.

Interestingly enough, we have opposite conclusions for the same reasons.  I wanted HS guys b/c we need talent in the low minors and because I suspect that the org is going to be overhauled pretty significantly this offseason.  I'd rather have higher ceiling HS guys in place for a new org that will be better focused on developing them.  The Twins did precisely what you're being critical about.  They took a bunch of higher ceiling players.  If they had taken the college guys, then they would been taking lower ceiling players.  I can see your point on non-premium positions, but as others noted, there really weren't good options there (with the exception of pitching). 

Getting back to the org issue, I'm not even sure that their problem is with the development staff in the minors (most of it at least).  I think they could use some fresh coaching blood in the higher minors, but I really think their problem is rushing hitters through the high minors, not bringing pitchers up through them fast enough, and never really giving the kid a shot once he hits the majors, regardless of position.  I can see that if you're in contention, but not when you're one of the worst teams in the league. 

There certainly may be a few coaching changes in the minors that could help the development out, but they seem to have no problems with talent performing in the high minors, but once they hit the majors... well that's a problem, and it's one with too many data points at this point to ignore.  Either way, I don't think there will be a lot of coaching hold overs come 2017.  Pohlad will clean house at the top this offseason, and plenty of dominoes will fall after that.  Get the ceilings and let whomever handles this next work with them.  They did that. 

Apparently I was ok with the pick.