Twins in Arizona

Phil Miller updated the situation on the AFL picks today, in a summation that took more page space than the game summary of the Twins walk-off loss to KC.  Mike Radcliff was the source for some in-depth commentary on the big announcement and the Burdi snafu:

 

 

This explanation invites more questions than it answers.  Such as....

 

1) How did the Salt River team know to post Burdi to their roster?

 

2) Dustin Morse made the official announcement online, sans Burdi.  Exactly when was he officially removed from the remaining spot?... and more importantly, why?

 

3) If the three pitchers that did make the cut are "serious candidates to be in Mpls. soon", where does that leave "only one of several candidates", Nick Burdi?

 

 

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/272818871.html

I think you are reading far more into this than is necessary.  My guess is that this boils down to a communications goof up and someone jumped the gun.

I'm disappointed Adam Brett Walker didn't make the cut. Despite his flaws - He has played in more games than any prospect over the last 2 years (in the Twins system) and has yet to be thrown a bone by the Twins organization. No promotions either year (2013 & 2014). Mid Season and Post Season All Star each of the last 2 years. 2013 MWL League Topps MVP. Led MWL and FSL leagues in Home Runs; RBIs; and Total Bases each of the last 2 years. Stays Healthy - Plays Hard - Has won a regular season league championship each of his 3 professional years and has made the playoffs respectively each of those years. Still No Bone.

 

All Star Game MVP - Home Run Derby Champion. 22 more RBI than the closest teammate. 14 more Home Runs than the closest teammate. Still No Bone. I love Kepler and I understand he is on the 40 man roster, but he is hitting .258 and Walker is hitting .244! Kepler has 54 RBI and Walker has 40 more RBI at 94. Kepler has scored 50 times and Walker has scored 74 times despite getting on base significantly less based on OBP. If Walker would have had Keplers complete stats this year, he would have been dropped of the prospect radar. You know that's true. Throw the Man a Bone Twins. He deserves that 7th spot.

ABW has a lot more work to do than most prospects, and he's not a 40 man candidate yet as well.  I'd add he's not in AA either, and AFL players tend to be AA (though I get that there are exceptions).  While I can see the merits of promoting him last season, I see absolutely no reason for him to have earned it this year.  He's got some pretty big holes in his game that need adjusting, and High A has exposed that more and more.  If anything, it shows that the Twins weren't wrong in letting him play a full season in the MWL.  He has to work on his contact issues, and those are already pretty severe.  It doesn't get any easier in AA

I'd also like it to be Wimmers.....since they need to figure out where he really is and gather more data.

Perhaps they have seen enough of Burdi to know he is good and are thinking of pursuing this strategy.

 

It would be disappointing if it was someone other than these two.

Well yes, those two, and Zach Jones should also have a shot, if it's a reliever for that fourth slot.  Assuming he's fully healthy now, he's one that can clearly use the innings.

ABW has a lot more work to do than most prospects, and he's not a 40 man candidate yet as well.  I'd add he's not in AA either, and AFL players tend to be AA (though I get that there are exceptions).  While I can see the merits of promoting him last season, I see absolutely no reason for him to have earned it this year.  He's got some pretty big holes in his game that need adjusting, and High A has exposed that more and more.  If anything, it shows that the Twins weren't wrong in letting him play a full season in the MWL.  He has to work on his contact issues, and those are already pretty severe. 

 

It doesn't get any easier in AA

The pitching quality definitely improves in AA, but the FSL park conditions make for the worst possible minor league in terms of run production and home run production and next to worst in hits/game, the former 2 areas are where Walker excels most.  The Cedar Rapids park in the Midwest League was an absolute launching pad compared to Hammond Stadium in Fort Myers, yet ABW is close to matching his 2013 HR total.   By contrast the Eastern League ranks near the middle for runs per game and hits per game, and is right in the middle for HR/game.  I'd say there's at least a decent chance that Walker can actually increase his overall production in the EL, particularly with the power-packed lineup that projects to start out the season in New Britain.  No doubt, the frightening, and steadily increasing K rate will be telling in the long run, but Walker has these other areas to consider that could mitigate some of Walker's main underlying problem to his game.

Baseball America has an excellent mathematical analysis on park factors and aggregate minor league variations from league to league in terms of offense:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/season-preview/2013/2614870.html

Wasn't it Correia who got swapped for as yet unknown returns?

I'm getting my trades mixed up...

I agree with Seth, they know what Burdi is, and more work won't develop some new pitch for him. Save that golden arm.

Michael and/or Wimmers.....they need more data on them.

Me thinks Walker is turning into a controversial prospect. To be clear, I like him. He has star potential, which isn't bad for a 3rd rounder. He's also high risk. The big issue is contact. He dosn't make nearly enough of it. He's a great mistake pitch hitter, but those number of mistakes drops significantly as he moves up the chain. Letting him work on that in an area where he's not overmatched is wise. the A+ to AA is one of the hardest transitions to make, and while he's improved a bit in A+ over the season, he's still got some contact issues, and I really don't think these are minor issues at this point, and this isn't just a concern of the Twins, pro scouts are saying the exact same thing. I think the Twins know what they are doing here.

As for your prediction, I'll drink to that. I don't think that smaller ballparks are going to have too much of an affect on K rate and contact rate. They might help a few foul balls that turn into outs stay out of play, but beyond that, if he drops is K rate 6% as lightfoot predicts, he's going to rocket up a lot of lists.