Tommy John Surgery for Tyler Mahle: What Does it Mean for the Twins?

Tyler Mahle was arguably the team’s biggest trade deadline acquisition last season, and now his Twins tenure is likely finished after only nine appearances. The Twins announced on Thursday that Mahle will have Tommy John surgery which will sideline him for the remainder of 2023 and a significant portion of 2024. For Mahle, a pending free agent, it’s a horrible development. The Twins also must look back with regret on the trade that brought him to Minnesota.

Last August, the Twins sent a trio of prospects to the Cincinnati Reds for Mahle. He was under team control for the 2023 season via arbitration. It was a big swing by the front office to acquire a front-line starting pitcher for infielders Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and left-handed pitcher Steven Hajjar. Steer has been the Reds starting third baseman in 2023 while Encarnacion-Strand has hit well at Triple-A. Hajjar was traded to the Guardians organization earlier this season and has yet to appear in a game in 2023.

If healthy, Mahle was likely headed toward a big pay day in free agency. The Twins could have offered him the qualifying offer to get draft pick compensation if he signed elsewhere. Unfortunately, both the team and the player miss out with an injury of this caliber. However, it doesn’t have to mean that Mahle’s time in a Twins uniform has come to an end.

Previously, the current Twins regime signed Michael Pineda to a two-year deal while he recovered from Tommy John surgery. Earlier this year, the Twins agreed to a contract extension with Chris Paddack while he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Minnesota signed him to a three-year extension to cover his final two arbitration seasons and his first free agent year. He is on track to return to the mound later this season. 

There is a chance the Twins could approach Mahle with a similar deal so he can rehab in the Twins organization. However, the club would likely want to buy one or two years of free agency. 

In hindsight, there is little  question the Twins must regret making the initial trade for Mahle. The club knew about his injury history when they traded for him, but they were still willing to trade multiple prospects that ranked highly in the organization. His shoulder issues were frustrating last season because the team wasn’t able to specify the cause of the injury. Even Mahle himself became an unreliable source because he told the media that he felt fine and that he wouldn’t miss time after leaving starts early with diminished velocity. Some players will always say that they are fine, but Mahle hasn’t been healthy for much of the last two seasons.

Now, the Twins are going to need to decide if they want Mahle for future seasons. The team has Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland and Chris Paddack available for next year’s rotation. There are also young pitchers like  Simeon Woods Richardson, Brent Headrick, Jordan Balazovic, and David Festa that might be ready for a starting rotation spot. The Twins can move on from Mahle if they are worried about his long-term health.

Do you think the Twins should sign Mahle beyond this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.