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The Twins haven't had a left-handed starting pitcher to be optimistic about since the departure of Francisco Liriano during the 2012 Trade Deadline. Despite that, the Twins are in a unique position this offseason, planning to fill their last rotation spot through free agency, trade, or a young right-handed internal option in Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, or David Festa.
Though the Twins will likely seriously consider pursuing right-handed pitching free-agent options like Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Michael Wacha, and Lucas Giolito, they may pursue the first optimism-inducing left-handed starting pitcher since Liriano left over 10 years ago.
There is a surplus of second and third-tier left-handed starting pitching options the Twins could pursue in Wade Miley, James Paxton, and Hyun Jin Ryu, but there are three top-tier options the Twins should seriously consider signing.
Here are three top-tier free-agent left-handed starting pitchers the Twins should consider signing:
Blake Snell - 32 G, 180 IP, 31.5% K%, 13.3% BB%, 44.4% GB%, 2.25 ERA, 3.44 WHIP, 4.1 fWAR - San Diego Padres
The first top-tier left-handed starting pitcher the Twins should consider signing comes in the form of soon-to-be 2023 NL Cy Young Award-winner Blake Snell.
The most crucial characteristic of Snell's to note is that he is a highly volatile pitcher whose performance level undergoes extreme transformations. For example, from March 30 to May 19, Snell had a 5.40 ERA, 5.52 FIP, 18.8% HR/FB, 73.2% LOB%, and 27 walks and 48 strikeouts over 45 innings pitched and 202 total batters faced for the San Diego Padres.
Then, seemingly out of nowhere, Snell's performance improved significantly, and he pitched himself to a 1.55 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 8.2% HR/FB, 90.3% LOB%, and 74 walks and 191 strikeouts over 139 IP and 559 total batters faced from late-May to the end of the 2023 regular season.
Despite the extreme fluctuation in performance during the 2023 season, Snell is usually a predictably formidable left-handed pitcher who can dominate lineups at a rate very few can achieve.
Snell's pitch mix includes the following:
(*Percentages indicate how often Snell threw each pitch.)
- 4-Seam Fastball - (48.6%)
- Curveball - (19.8%)
- Changeup - (18.4%)
- Slider - (13.1%)
Like most pitchers, Snell relies heavily on his 4-seam fastball, but he is unique in how equally distributed his off-speed pitches are. Snell's nearly identical curveball and changeup usage mixed with not-far-behind slider usage leaves hitters guessing, especially when he is ahead in counts.
Snell is a high strikeout and swing-and-miss pitcher, evidenced by his 94th-percentile K% and 98th-percentile Whiff%. This archetype would fit perfectly with a Twins starting rotation that broke their single-season franchise strikeout record during the 2023 season. Snell's high K% and Whiff% are his greatest strengths as a starting pitcher. Unfortunately, the monkey's paw, of sorts, of Snell's high strikeout rate is that he gives up an immense amount of walks, evidenced by his 4th-percentile BB%.
When assessing the risk of offering a 30-year-old pitcher a five-year contract worth over $100 million, teams must take Snell's volatile nature and high walk rate into account. Now, this type of financial commitment to a soon-to-be two-time Cy Young Award winner is nothing to large market teams like the Yankees and Dodgers that can afford this deal to blow up in their face (SEE: Carlos Rodón).
Unfortunately, the Twins don't live in a world where they can take risks like this. Risk is a vehicle by which privilege reinforces itself, meaning only the privileged can take risks, and only risks are rewarded. The Twins can afford to have one behemoth contract, and that contract belongs to Carlos Correa. The Twins will have to be savvy and calculated with every other move they make, and signing Snell to an egregiously bloated contract would be neither savvy nor calculated.
In a world where self-imposed spending restrictions didn't exist, Snell would be a perfect fit for the Twins. The Twins need a frontline start to complement Pablo López, and Snell is precisely that.
Snell is signed to Boras Corporation, which famously has a great relationship with Derek Falvey, and this iteration of the Twins front office has expressed interest in trading for him in the past. However, to think the Twins have a legitimate chance of signing him this upcoming offseason is merely a hoop dream and nothing else.
Jim Bowden's Contract Prediction for Snell: Five years, $122 million ($24.4 million AAV)
Eduardo Rodriguez - 26 G, 152 2/3 IP, 23% K%, 7.7% BB%, 3.30 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 3.0 fWAR
The next left-handed starting pitcher the Twins should consider signing comes in the form of former divisional foe Eduardo Rodriguez.
When healthy, Rodriguez is a force to be reckoned with. Similarly to Snell, Rodriguez is a left-handed pitcher who can overpower hitters through his deep assortment of offspeed pitches.
Rodriguez's pitch mix includes the following:
- 4-Seam Fastball (45.4%)
- Cutter (19.3%)
- Changeup (18.9%)
- Sinker (9.3%)
- Slider (7.2%)
Similarly to former Rays great starting pitcher David Price, Rodriguez uses his sinker and cutter to paint the outside corner of the strike zone as an east-to-west pitcher. Rodriguez also uses his elite changeup as a knockout pitch for left and right-handed hitters.
Now, the first two things that come to mind to those who follow baseball when Rodriguez's name is mentioned are his extended three-month leave of absence from the Detroit Tigers during the 2022 season and the fact that he exercised his no-trade clause to block a trade from the Tigers to the Dodgers during the 2023 Trade Deadline.
These two occurrences have made some unfairly hypercritical of Rodriguez, his desire to win, and his love for baseball. These critiques are unfair, as we have minimal context as to why Rodriguez left the Tigers for three months in 2022 and blocked a trade to the Dodgers in 2023.
When assessing whether or not the Twins should pursue Rodriguez, it is unfair to put much weight on these two occurrences. There is little reason to suspect Rodriguez wouldn't start a satisfactory amount of games for the Twins, as he has started a combined 108 games over the past four seasons.
Nevertheless, this iteration of the Twins front office has expressed interest in both signing and trading for Rodriguez in years past. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic even reported that the Twins discussed acquiring Rodriguez from the Tigers during the 2023 Trade Deadline before talks fell apart after he blocked a trade to the Dodgers.
Much like Snell, Rodriguez would be a risk worth taking for the Twins, but it is doubtful the Twins front office would be comfortable pulling the trigger on a five-year deal worth roughly $100 million.
Jim Bowden's Contract Prediction for Rodriguez: Five years, $90 million ($18 million AAV)
Jordan Montgomery - 32 G, 188 2/3 IP, 21.4% K%, 6.2 BB%, 3.20 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 4.3 fWAR
The final top-tier left-handed pitching free agent comes in the form of World Series champion Jordan Montgomery.
Montgomery is a top-tier left-handed starting pitcher, but he isn't on the same level as Snell and Rodriguez talent-wise. In fact, Montgomery is the exact opposite of Snell in that he is a low-walk, low-strike-out pitcher, evidenced by his 34th-percentile K% and 82nd-percentile BB%.
Montgomery effectively deceives hitters with his large assortment of offspeed pitches that complement his low-to-mid-90s sinker. Here is Montgomery's pitch mix:
- Sinker (42.6%)
- Changeup (23%)
- Curveball (22.2%)
- 4-Seam Fastball (10.7%)
- Cutter (1.6%)
Montgomery separates himself from Snell and Rodriguez by not being as reliant on his traditional 4-seam fastball. Montgomery instead uses his lower-velocity but higher-movement sinker to get hitters to chase to set up his wide-array offspeed pitches, a coup de grâce for hitters behind in the count.
Montgomery's ability to masterfully manage games and keep his team's head consistently above water by maneuvering out sticky situations was on full display against the Houston Astros. Montgomery picked apart the Astros' right-handed dominant lineup and was seemingly the only immovable object that could stop the impenetrable force that is the left-handed power-hitting phenom Yordan Alvarez.
Montgomery continued his elite postseason performance into the World Series, cinching the red-hot flame that was the Arizona Diamondbacks' offense and helping the Texas Rangers win their first World Series in franchise history.
Montgomery, represented by frequent Twins collaborator Boras Corporation, will likely demand a five-year contract worth around $100 million like Snell and Rodriguez. The Twins are unlikely to hand a contract out that large, and spending that much money on a middle-of-the-rotation type pitcher riding the high of a great postseason feels like a misallocation of funds.
Jim Bowden's Contract Prediction for Montgomery: Five years, $127 million ($25.4 million AAV)
The Twins will look to find a fifth starter for their final rotation spot this upcoming offseason. Whether it will be done by acquiring a pitcher through trade, signing a free agent, or promoting a young internal option has yet to be decided. Regardless of what the Twins do, deviating from the franchise norm and pursuing a top-tier left-handed starting pitcher like Snell, Rodriguez, or Montgomery could be in their best interest.
Should the Twins consider signing a top-tier left-handed pitcher? Would you prefer Snell, Rodriguez, or Montgomery? Comment below.
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