This Yankees Starter Could Be the Next Success Story in the Twins' Rotation

Facing spending limitations, the Twins should turn their attention to trading for a promising starter that they can propel to the next level, just as they did with Pablo López. That means seeking out a somewhat expendable arm in a good starting rotation, who can be elevated with a tweak or two. This pitcher should be under team control for at least two seasons, and this hypothetical target should be young enough that an extension becomes part of the conversation if all goes well. 

That’s a tall order, and there’s no assurance that there is a López to be had this time around. But one pitcher might carry that kind of upside, even if it comes with a significant question mark. It’s Nestor Cortes of the New York Yankees. While he may not be able to match López’s elite production from this season, he could be at that perfect balance point of being realistically attainable while having a recent track record of success. 

Heading into the 2024 season, Cortes currently finds himself grasping to the last spot in New York’s rotation, a group that is headlined by Cy Young award winner Gerrit Cole and also includes Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt and Michael King. The Yankees are also known to be gearing up in pursuit of some of the top arms in the free agent market, including Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga. If they land one of those pitchers, or acquire one at their level via trade, it makes Cortes all the more expendable. 

That’s where it would behoove the Twins to keep in contact with Brian Cashman and the decision-makers in the Bronx. The 29-year-old southpaw struggled for much of the 2023 season as he was hampered by a nagging injury. It kept him out of action for all but a dozen starts, and the results in those games were far from desirable. Cortes finished with a 4.97 ERA in 63 innings pitched, and allowed 11 home runs in that brief time. 

Yes, that shoulder injury is certainly concerning, but it shouldn’t be a disqualifier in terms of pursuing him in a trade. If anything, it could drop his price tag to a point where it becomes realistic for the Twins to make a move. Look no further than López’s situation while with the Marlins. He always had intriguing raw stuff, but he failed to pitch more than 111 innings until his final season with the club, and that was due in large part to an injured rotator cuff in both the 2019 and 2021 seasons. 

That’s the same injury that kept Cortes off the field and ineffective last year. While his velocity remained surprisingly consistent through his injury (91.8 MPH average fastball velocity in 2022, 91.6 MPH in 2023), his main secondary offerings were nailed pretty hard. Both his cutter and sweeper allowed a slugging percentage over .500, with eight of his 11 homers allowed coming on these offerings. But these pitches were real tools for him in the first two years of his Yankee tenure. They each had expected slugging percentages that were more than 100 points lower than his most recent figures, and they led to a to plenty of strikeouts and fewer hits. 

So if the Twins can get their hands on Cortes and rework these once-great secondary pitches as they did with López and his sweeper (which is admittedly a major 'if'), the reward could be worth the substantial risk.

Cortes is just a year removed from a really promising stretch with the Yankees where he had a 2.61 ERA (0.98 WHIP) in 251 ⅓ innings pitched across 42 starts. That span started with a handful of opportunities out of the bullpen, but he soon graduated into the starting five after holding opponents to a brilliant .197/.278/.282 clip in relief. Once he secured his spot in the rotation, Cortes carried a strong 9.5 K/9 while holding opponents to a comfortable 6.4% walk rate. 

Care to guess what those same peripherals looked like for López in the two seasons leading up to his trade? They were eerily similar, with the young right-hander averaging 9.2 K/9 with a 6.9% walk rate. Does that mean Cortes would be destined to hit that same breakout if the Twins were to acquire him? Of course not, but you can see the appeal at the very least. 

The other side of this equation would be the potential cost to acquire such a player. The Yankees have had interest in Max Kepler in the past, and his one-year $10 million salary might look enticing to them after he had the best half-season of his career. Cortes would surely cost additional pieces to pair with Kepler, but it’s hard to imagine any of the top-tier youngsters being included in this deal.

Could some combination of back-end prospects from the Twins Daily Top Prospect rankings be enough? Would the Yankees be interested in near-MLB ready minor leaguers such as Simeon Woods Richardson (No. 17) or Yunior Severino (No. 12)? Or maybe they’d prefer a higher-ceiling player that is still a few years away from making an impact in the major leagues such as Marco Raya (No. 4), Charlee Soto (No. 6), or Brandon Winokur (No. 8).

The benefit of having a diverse pool of prospect types to choose from could come into play here, and Cortes might just be worth the investment if the price is right.

What do you think? Would you like to see Nestor Cortes in the Twins’ rotation for the next two seasons? What do you think the return package would have to look like? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below, and as always, keep it sweet.