The Waiting Is The Hardest Part

I couldn't disagree more.

 

Dozier is not "B" level talent. He is a top-20 hitter with power, and a capable defender. That's not B-level, considering how many hitters there are in the major leagues.

 

He's worth a lot more than just De Leon. De Leon is still a prospect. The Twins should get at least one more MLB-ready starting pitcher and one or two more prospects for Dozier. If not, just keep him.

He is only a top 20 hitter if you only look at one year. Heck, 1/2 to 3/4 of one year. No team in the MLB is going to look at him this way. Even the Twins don't look at him this way. 

Well then the answer is pretty easy. 

 

The Dodgers should simply offer DeLeon to the other 29 teams and simply take the 2nd baseman that they like best from all the teams that say Yes.

 

I think it's quite possible that the Dodgers like Dozier the best and the reason is that other teams and the Twins don't view him the way you do.  

Your premise here is way off.  When did anyone say that Dozier is not the best 2nd baseman *on the market*?  Of course the Dodgers would want him. 

What we are talking about is what the Dodgers should get in return for him.  No one said Dozier is worthless.  Being a B rated player is pretty damn good. 

My premise may indeed be off. We are all out of our depth when it comes to value assessment... I will certainly claim that I am... if others aren't.   

 

I also don't believe I used the word "worthless" either. 

 

In my way of thinking... If the Dodgers want him... Well? Asking for more isn't out of the ordinary. 

 

Out of curiosity... If Dozier is a "B" Rated player... What is DeLeon?  

De Leon is a future top half of the rotation starter who is stuck on a team with 7-10 starting pitching options.  He is a player who can fill an immediate and desperate need for a team that currently has just 1 top half of the rotation starter.

For any other team in baseball, someone like De Leon is off the table as a trade asset.  Opportunities like this don't come around very often.  It may take a year for De Leon to work out the kinks, but so what?  Putting up with De Leon struggling for a year is better than putting up with Milone (or someone like him) struggling for a year.

Where you and I are going to differ in opinions... and please forgive me if I'm wrong because I'm not trying to put words in your fingertips. You seem to be sure that Dozier is going to regress and DeLeon is going to progress and that seems to be driving you toward taking the deal.

 

My opinion is that the current gulf between what Dozier is producing in the majors right now and what DeLeon has produced in the majors thus far is too large to justify. Making a trade like that is trading out of desperation and exactly what teams like the Dodgers are going to feed on to stay strong and keep the other team poor.

 

You seem to feel that we can't afford to let this opportunity pass and I feel that we cant' afford a Dozier for Alex Meyer like deal and nobody knows if DeLeon is Alex Meyer Part II. Especially when it is your only decent trade chip. I strongly believe that you help minimize that extreme risk by picking up multiple quality prospects to increase the odds that at least one turns into what they are supposed to be. Being sincere about being OK keeping Dozier is our leverage because as long as the Dodgers think we have to trade Dozier... they can sit there and keep the price low. Big Bank take Little Bank.

 

If it's just for DeLeon... and I know nothing about DeLeon... We would be better off keeping Dozier and taking a different approach back to respectability. I'd be disappointed but there is no way I'm handing the Dodgers someone who is potentially their best hitter for a single prospect who happens to be the best of the prospects that they are willing to trade.

 

Here's another thing where we may differ... Dozier had a great year and after a year like that... I would bet there is some regression. However... there are degrees to that possible regression. Maybe he hits 36 Home Runs next year. Nobody can rule that out. Regression Yes... Valuable Yes.

 

I would like to see Dozier traded right now for maximum payoff (years of control... 42 home runs... all of that)... I'm OK getting prospects in return. But if it is prospects... they gotta be good and it has to be plural. I won't do a straight up deal for just whatever with unknown major league value. .

 

If the Dodgers want to keep their prospects... Let Em. Walking away is how you counter and stand up to the man.

Couldn't agree more. Prospects are risky. You could look at the top 20 every year and over half won't make it. Remember when Mike Restovich was a top 20 prospect? Happened even though they knew he couldn't hit anything besides a fastball. Well De Leon isn't even top 20 prospect and has questions about his pitch selection and his shoulder. That doesn't return someone like Dozier by themself. Has to be a nice package. Would be interesting if someone did a statistical break down of top 50 prospects (where De Leon belongs) in the past 10-15 years or so.

Where you and I are going to differ in opinions... and please forgive me if I'm wrong because I'm not trying to put words in your fingertips. You seem to be sure that Dozier is going to regress and DeLeon is going to progress and that seems to be driving you toward taking the deal. 

I'm not convinced that Dozier will regress right away, though yes evidence suggests he will. What I am convinced of is that Polanco is going to be a good player and the Twins are lacking around four starting pitchers that they can count on. My opinions are not based on Dozier being terrible in the future. For me, it's about the Twins fixing their problems. This is a great opportunity to start doing that. 

Even if you don't think De Leon = Dozier, do you think De Leon + Polanco = Dozier? What about De Leon + Polanco + Whoever Else The Twins Get = Dozier? It's difficult to believe the Twins come away as losers when you consider every piece of the puzzle.

I see why we are disagreeing. In some ways we're not understanding each other, but we also have the players valued very differently. Mostly I'm looking at the players as chess pieces. I'm not emotionally invested in any of them. If Dozier goes to the Dodgers, he probably gets a WS ring and he is probably a key factor in the team earning that ring. This doesn't mean sending him to the Dodgers is the wrong move for the Twins. On the contrary, this makes it a win-win for both teams. The Dodgers get their championship and the Twins get a foundation set for the future. Note that "Dozier = about to regress terribly" is not a factor in this opinion at all.

Would be interesting if someone did a statistical break down of top 50 prospects (where De Leon belongs) in the past 10-15 years or so.

Oh believe me ... whether or not the Twins land De Leon we will be looking back on this one and analyzing it.