The Twins' Playoff Odds Have Taken a Significant Hit

It should have never been a shock that the Twins were going to dial back payroll this offseason. Derek Falvey said as much almost immediately following a successful postseason run, and with Joe Pohlad taking over as the new face of ownership, the front office's strategy was a direct result of his family not providing assets to the club.

So while Sonny Gray went elsewhere, and the seemingly ideal free agents landed in other spots, Minnesota stood pat. Sure, they spent some money on Carlos Santana, and shuffled strengths with the Jorge Polanco trade, but there was very little commitment to building depth or quality across the roster.

Despite that lack of aggressiveness, the Twins found themselves as favorites. In a division where Stephen Vogt was taking over for Terry Francona, and A.J. Hinch wasn’t yet sure what he had with the Tigers, there was no reason why Minnesota couldn’t sleepwalk their way to a second division title. Rocco Baldelli’s pitching staff was going to have issues in the rotation, but the bullpen seemed solid. The lineup took forever to get going a year ago, but that shouldn’t repeat itself, right?

Well, here we are, roughly three weeks into the 2024 Major League Baseball season, and projections have flipped on their heads. Baseball Prospectus sees the Twins as competitors in a four-team race for the top. FanGraphs has put the odds highest for the Guardians, and that’s in spite of their having lost Shane Bieber for the season.

It seemed laughable for there to be so much hype for the Royals being a competitor in 2024. They spent money, but on the likes of Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Hunter Renfroe. Even a Twins team not spending money should lap that sort of competition. It’s Kansas City, though, that has raced out to a 12-7 start, almost the exact opposite of where Minnesota finds themselves.

This is still far too early for panic. The regular season is 162 games long so that sample sizes are able to be established and the cream can rise to the top. The Twins need to get healthy. Namely, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis need to return. They also need to produce. Byron Buxton, Santana, Edouard Julien and others all have to join Alex Kirilloff and Ryan Jeffers in carrying the lineup load.

If the odds are going to tip back into the favor of the Twins, it will be because they start to right the ship before the end of April. There is ample opportunity, with games against the Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, and Los Angeles Angels upcoming. Right now, it’s Minnesota that is circled on the calendars of the opposition.

A Twins start that has culminated in a 6-11 record has all but given everyone else in the division an open opportunity to take over. So far, they have evened the playing field, and this Minnesota isn’t going to back their way into another postseason berth from here. What seemed like an offseason built around simply being better than depressed competition now has the Twins staring in the mirror, seeing that depressed quality on their own countenance.