The Twins Decision-Making Process or (The Unexpected Virtue of Stubbornness)

Stubbornness is a polarizing characteristic.

Traditionally, people associate stubbornness as a flaw of character: Close-minded, stagnant, and unable to grow with the ever-changing environment surrounding oneself.

Stubbornness can stunt progression, leading to an adverse reaction that can affect people on a micro or macro scale, depending on the situation. 

On the other hand, stubbornness can be great when blended with a sense of discernment and a strong foundation, especially in decision-making professions where multi-billion-dollar corporations' success and public image are on the line. 

Sound familiar?

When stubbornness leads to success, the decision-maker gets praised for being decisive, focused, and having a clear vision.

Like most things in life, specific decision-makers and corporations' stubbornness should not be considered exclusively good or bad. To think in absolutes is a fault in thought process, especially when analyzing the ever-changing state of professional sports teams.

Notably the 2023 Minnesota Twins.

The narrative behind the Minnesota Twins franchise and specific Twins players resides in a constant state of extreme fluctuation, and much of that flux in narrative resides in the decisions, or lack thereof, made by the front office. 

The Twins front office decision-making process, or lack thereof, has created a new angst amongst Twins fans that has yet to be felt since the front office did essentially nothing to enhance and fortify the World Series-hopeful 2019 Bomba Squad. 

Although the Twins have done relatively nothing to improve this year's roster besides trading Jorge López for Dylan Floro and claiming Jordan Luplow off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays, the team benefits from sticking with a handful of players that the majority would have cut bait with long ago.

While this is true, the other end of the spectrum exists, and the Twins have also suffered at the hand of their stagnation.

Has the good outweighed the bad? Let's take a look.

The outcomes manufactured by the Twins stubbornness overlap with the 1967 Spaghetti Western film aptly titled The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly, so it feels appropriate to categorize the decisions made as such.

The Good: The Re-emergence of Max Kepler and Emilio Pagán

The prominent cases that illustrate the Twins reaping the benefits of sticking with players when the majority believed they should part with them are the recent performances of Kepler and Pagán. 

Here are Kepler and Pagán's numbers since the end of the All-Star Break:

• Kepler - .297/.344/.576 (.920), 128 PA, 35 H, 9 2B, 8 HR, .280 ISO, 21.1% K%, 150 wRC+ 
• Pagán - 1.04 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 92.1 LOB%, 4.3 HR/FB, 0.52 HR/9, 61 TBF, 17.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 15 SO

Kepler and Pagán have put up elite numbers since the All-Star break, propelling themselves into conversations of being the Twins current best position player and relief pitcher, respectively. 

Unfortunately, that was not the case earlier this season or last season for Pagán, and when discussing Kepler, this hasn't been the case since his breakout season in 2019. 

Kepler and Pagán's turnarounds have been encouraging. 

Although that doesn't guarantee future success, their production since the All-Star game has contributed significantly to the Twins having a 91.2% chance of making the playoffs, according to Fangraphs. 

The Twins front office's stubbornness has finally appeared to pay off with Kepler and Pagán, but this, unfortunately, isn't the end of their stubborn ways. 

The Bad: Unwavering Allegiance to Joey Gallo

When the Twins signed Gallo to a one-year $11 million contract last December, a sense of optimism came with the addition.

Many thought Gallo, like Sonny Gray, was a victim of the formidable pressure Yankees fans put on players. Once Gallo returned to a small market team, he could play loosely, thrive, and hit 41 home runs again, as he did for the Rangers in 2017. Right?

Gallo has undoubtedly been better as a member of the Twins than the Yankees, but his numbers are less than inspiring in both cases.

Here are Gallo's first 314 plate appearances with the Yankees compared to his first 313 plate appearances with the Twins:

• Gallo - Yankees - .167/.299/.380 (.679), 314 PA, 44 H, 16 HR, 38.2% K%, .213 ISO, 91 wRC+
• Gallo - Twins - .180/.304/.447 (.751), 313 PA, 48 H, 20 HR, 42.8% K%, .267, 107 wRC+ 

Gallo has been better than many make him out to be and has provided defensive flexibility while hitting the occasional home run. Regardless, the Twins have better options to fulfill his roster spot waiting in the wings at Triple-A.

It is reasonable to think that current Saints players Austin Martin, Chris Williams, Trevor Larnach, Anthony Prato, and potentially even recently promoted to Triple-A prospects Yunior Severino, DaShawn Keirsey Jr., and, most notably, Brooks Lee could help the Twins more than Gallo at this moment in the season. 

The Twins have done a great job at blending young hitters with their core veterans this season, but Gallo feels like the last roadblock that is stunting the development of a future full-time contributor like Martin, Larnach, or even Lee. 

Rostering Gallo for the rest of the regular season will likely prove insignificant as the Twins are all but locked into a playoff spot with a 91.2% chance of making the playoffs.

However, suppose the Twins elect to start Gallo over a promising young player like Matt "Cement Bones" Wallner or Alex Kirilloff in a playoff game or prioritize pinch-hitting him for Royce Lewis or Donovan Solano in the late innings of a playoff game when a right-handed relief pitcher enters the game. In that case, flying too close to the sun could make the Twins like Icarus.

The Ugly: Neglecting the Back End of the Bullpen

The way the Twins front office's stubbornness has negatively affected the 2023 team the most is through neglecting the back end of the bullpen.

While the front office choosing not to improve the back-end bullpen should be considered malpractice, their passivity hasn’t come back to haunt yet due to admirable performance from the front-half of the bullpen. 

Highlighted by Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, currently inactive Brock Stewart, Floro, and the previously mentioned Pagán, the Twins, according to Fangraphs, have the 22nd-ranked bullpen generating 2.1 fWAR.

While the combination of Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Pagán, and Floro, to an extent, have performed well, they account for only five-eighths of the bullpen, leaving three bullpen spots relatively unclaimed and lacking production.

Jordan Balazovic, Josh Winder, and Cole Sands currently fill the final three bullpen spots. However, their jobs are in a highly dynamic spot, as all three of these relievers could get optioned back to Triple-A St. Paul at any moment.

A playoff team's sixth-best reliever has to be better than the likes of Balazovic, Winder, and Sands.

The five other American League teams currently owning playoff spots are the Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros, and Seattle Mariners.

While each team has relief pitching-induced shortcomings, they have established bullpens that most would deem playoff-ready and more well-rounded than the Twins.

To put this into perspective, here is how much fWAR each playoff team's sixth, seventh, and eighth options have generated combined compared to the Twins with seeding:

1. Orioles - Danny Coulombe, Cionel Pérez, Nick Vespi (1.5 fWAR)
2. Rangers - Chris Stratton, Brock Burke, Grant Anderson (1.6 fWAR)
3. Twins - Balazovic, Winder, Sands (-0.4 fWAR)
4. Rays - Jake Diekman, Shawn Armstrong, Jacob Lopez (1.1 fWAR)
5. Astros - Ryne Stanek, Rafael Montero, Seth Martinez (0.3 fWAR)
6. Mariners - Tayler Saucedo, Isaiah Campbell, Eduard Bazardo (0.5 fWAR)

While some of the advantages appear incremental, it cannot be understated how much less productive the bottom half of the Twins bullpen has performed in comparison to the other playoff-caliber teams in the American League. 

The Twins front office purposely rejected two opportunities to improve and fortify their bullpen by not acquiring a reliable veteran set-up man this past offseason and by not trading for another veteran relief arm to complement the acquisition of Floro.

Electing to have faith in unreliable young relief options like Balazovic, Winder, Sands, Jovani Moran, and Oliver Ortega has proved to be the front office's greatest fault this season.

Will it come back to haunt them in the playoffs? That remains unanswered, but if it does it is essential to note that it was entirely avoidable. 

The Twins front office has expressed a sense of stubbornness regarding roster decisions this season. While it will likely prove to be insignificant the rest of the regular season, it has the risk of being their Achilles heel come the post-season. 

What do you make of the Twins front office's stubbornness? Has it worked in their favor? Do you think they will come to regret it? Comment below.