Should Christian Vázquez Be the Twins' Leadoff Hitter?

Overall, Christian Vázquez has not been the hitter the Twins hoped for when signing him to a three-year, $30 million deal prior to the 2023 season. In 2023, he was 35% worse than league-average as a hitter. This season, he has been marginally better, just 31% worse than average. This has led to bitterness among the fanbase, and there have been calls to trade or DFA him for a season and a half. These calls may be premature, however, as in one key situation, Vázquez has been an above-average hitter. The key? Leading off an inning.

So far this season, Vázquez has come to the dish with the bases empty 119 times. During those plate appearances, he has a .728 OPS. He has struck out just 18% of the time, walked 4%, and has a .257 batting average, even with a tepid .279 BABIP. All of that is good for a 104 wRC+. So, Christian Vázquez has been a better-than-average hitter, with the bases empty. Are you surprised?

In low-leverage situations, even beyond hitting leadoff, 33% of Vázquez’s contact is classified as hard-hit. Some 44% of the time, he hits the ball up the middle. When he hits the ball well, he uses the whole field.

Let’s compare this to other situations. When Vázquez bats with at least one runner on, his OPS craters to .475, with a batting average of just .190. He strikes out more frequently, 22% of the time. With a wRC+ of just 30, he’s been basically unusable with men on base. With runners in scoring position, his results are even worse, to the tune of a .153 batting average, a 25% strikeout rate, and a wRC+ of 4. Just terrible.

In medium-leverage situations, his hard-hit rate falls slightly, to 28%, and in high-leverage spots, this drops to just 13.6%. Looking at his spray charts by leverage, in high leverage, he’s going the other way 41% of the time. The quality of this oppo contact has been quite poor - when he goes the other way, he either tops the ball or hits it softly.

So, something about the pressure of the moment alters his timing, approach, and results--or it changes how opposing pitchers approach him, and he's not able to succeed against the different set of things he sees in those spots. Basically, when it matters most, he loses the ability to make valuable contact with the ball.

Before you play the small-sample-size card, there are two things to consider. Last season, his batting average with runners on was .192 and his OPS was .539 — good for a 52 wRC+, and similar results to this year. So, this is at least a two-season problem. Over this span, his cumulative WPA is -4.1. Second, yes, his BABIP is lower when runners are on, at .234 and lower still with runners in scoring position at .191, suggesting that some positive regression is in order. However, due to his approach with men on, he won’t regress as much as one would expect.

Overall, the story this data tells is that Christian Vázquez is likely trying to do too much when it matters most, and the problem may be mental. The solution? Take the pressure off. Let him hit leadoff, against lefties. Late in games, if they're trailing and need offense, they can always pinch-hit for Vázquez. Ryan Jeffers, to name the obvious candidate for such duty, is hitting .245/.318/.42 with runners on base, and he owns an .812 OPS in high-leverage situations.

If Vázquez is capable of being a solid hitter in at least some situations, the Twins would be well-served to maximize his (limited) hitting prowess. Slotting him in atop the order needn't mean that he gets the most plate appearances on a given night; it can just mean putting him in the best possible position to succeed. They (and you) just might be surprised at the results.

What do you think? Will hitting Vázquez leadoff maximize his hitting ability? Will it lead to positive outcomes for the Twins? Comment below to start the discussion!