October's Dark Horses: Unmasking the Playoff Pathways for Baseball's Mediocre Teams

The Twins are currently dysfunctional, with the offense on life support and requiring consistent player-led interventions to avoid going comatose. But part of what was initially exciting about this roster was its combination of playoff-ready ingredients. 

Like it or not, this team will likely host a playoff series in three months, with a 55.9% chance of winning the division, according to Fangraphs. 

I have long held a theory that teams need at least three good-to-great hitters, at least two good-to-great pitchers, and an elite closer to compete in October. If this current Twins team has its hitters figure it out to any degree, that is possible, given their quality rotation and Jhoan Duran. I wanted to find out if this year's team is the type of mediocre regular season team that can suddenly thrive in the playoffs, so I took a look at the last ten seasons in MLB and singled out the teams with the best regular season records along with the pennant winners, to see if my theory holds any water. 

Methodology: A compiled list of all teams with the best regular season record in their respective league and pennant winners. Teams with the best record that also won the pennant were counted in both data sets and added how many 120 OPS+ or better hitters and 120 ERA+ pitchers each team while also including the WPA of their closer. For hitters, I included anyone with 200 plate appearances or more who were available for the playoffs. I used a minimum of fifteen starts for pitchers while being available for the playoffs. For the closer, I used full season stats for whoever the closer was once the playoffs began. The only exception was for the 2022 Phillies. I added Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez's WPA together because their usage was overly matchup-based when October rolled around.

Factor one: Having a group of good-to-great hitters

The most significant discrepancy between teams with great regular season records and teams with postseason success was their collection of hitters. Pennant winners averaged 4.5 hitters with a 120 OPS+ or higher, while teams with the best record averaged 4.15. Some outliers include the 2014 Royals, who had zero hitters 20% better than the league average while still winning the pennant, and the 2019 Dodgers, who had seven hitters eclipse that mark while losing in the NLDS.

The 2023 Twins have much work to do to assemble a group of plus hitters. Still, based on track record, you can have some hope that Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Jorge Polanco will gravitate to that 120 OPS+ level, with Alex Kirilloff, Edouard Julien , and Royce Lewis having the potential to join them. If you take an optimistic view, they look similar to the 2015 Mets, who had a decent collection of hitters, including Lucas Duda (who was good for a few years), Curtis Granderson, David Wright, and a rookie Michael Conforto. But the team ascended to another level when they acquired Yoenis Cespedes at the trade deadline for then-prospect Michael Fulmer. Going from four plus hitters to five made a massive difference for that team as they went 36-19 in August and September and eventually reached the World Series. 

Would someone like Paul Goldschmidt or even Justin Turner have a Cespedes-type impact?

Factor two: Having a couple of good-to-great starting pitchers
It has long been a cliche that elite starting pitching wins in the playoffs, but according to my data, it didn't make much of a difference in separating the regular season champs and the pennant winners. 

The teams with the best season record averaged 2.70 starters of that type, while pennant winners averaged 2.65. Notables include the 2020 and 2022 Dodgers teams that had five pitchers 20% better than the league average, and the 2013 Red Sox, 2014 Angels, 2014 Giants, 2015 Royals, 2018 Brewers, and 2021 Rays with only one starter of that type each. No team has won a pennant or had the best record in its league without a 120 ERA+ starter on its roster.

The 2023 Twins have three such pitchers in Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, and Bailey Ober. Pablo Lopez (110 ERA+) could get there with a solid second half, and his peripherals make that possible. Only five teams in my data pool had four starters or more eclipse the threshold: the 2015 Cardinals (4), 2016 Cubs (4), and the aforementioned Dodgers teams as well as their 2019 squad (4).

Factor three: Having a great closer
According to WPA, pennant winners have had better closers than regular season stalwarts, with an average figure of 2.513. 

Teams with the best records averaged 2.438. The best performer was, far and away Kenley Jansen for the Dodgers in 2017, with a 5.70 mark. Second was Koji Uehara at 4.10 in 2013 for the champion Red Sox, and the worst was Sergio Romo's 0.3 mark for the champion 2014 Giants (oddly enough, Jansen's 0.4 in 2019 was the second worst).

Jhoan Duran already has a 1.3 WPA this year after posting an impressive 4.6 in 2022. Being able to deploy him in the playoffs, with all the extra off days, could be a huge advantage for the Twins if they can scrape in.

Comparables (Reached World Series with 93 or fewer regular season wins):
2014 Royals: Zero hitters above 120 OPS+, three pitchers above 120 ERA+, 2.8 Closer WPA
2014 Giants: Three hitters, one pitcher, 0.3 Closer WPA
2015 Mets: Five hitters, two pitchers, 3.7 Closer WPA
2018 Dodgers: Eight hitters, three pitchers, 1.5 Closer WPA
2019 Nationals: Three hitters, three pitchers, 1.8 Closer WPA
2021 Braves: Four hitters, three pitchers, 1.9 Closer WPA
2022 Phillies: Four hitters, two pitchers, 2.0 Closer WPA

2014 was a weird year, with the Yankees missing the playoffs, the Astros still coming out of their rebuild, and the Dodgers weren't yet the Dodgers. The thoroughly unimpressive Giants and Royals duked it out in the World Series, and those two teams did not have at least three hitters above a 120 OPS, two pitchers above 120 ERA+, and/or a closer with over a 1.5 WPA (we'll call these thresholds the test). The next five teams did; what about the regular season stalwarts?

Teams with the best regular season record that failed that test:
2013 Cardinals*
2013 Red Sox*
2014 Angels
2014 Nationals
2015 Royals*
2015 Cardinals
2016 Rangers
2018 Brewers
2019 Dodgers
2020 Dodgers*
2021 Rays

Teams with best regular season record that passed the test:
2016 Cubs*
2017 Guardians
2017 Dodgers*
2018 Red Sox*
2019 Astros*
2020 Rays*
2022 Astros*
2022 Dodgers

*Reached World Series

So of the teams that paced their league in regular season wins, four of eleven (36%) reached the World Series when failing my test, and six of eight (75%) reached the final round while passing my test. Of the teams that didn't post their league's best record but still reached the World Series, seven of ten passed the test.

My most scientific theory is that baseball is a stupid game. 

For all their success, the Tampa Bay Rays have an injury-battered rotation and a closer with a nerve condition in his fingers that flares up in the cold (does it get cold in October?). Further out West, does anyone expect Nathan Eovaldi to stay healthy? If he doesn't, the now-dominant Rangers will have a rotation of Jon Gray, Martin Perez, and Dane Dunning in October. Their closer signed in March for 1.5M.

The Guardians have three rookies, no Triston McKenzie, and the 2023 version of Shane Bieber (who they may trade) pitching in front of one of the worst offenses in the league. The Rangers and Rays have several quality teams trying to chase them down, by contrast. Certainly, the trade deadline could alter some things, but the more balanced schedule looks like a coup for the Twins and Brewers, at least so far.

The point is that the Twins are frustrating and don't seem playoff-worthy. But they are better set for October than the two top teams in the AL regarding their path to the playoffs and the roster they could roll out once there. We saw what happened last year with both the Braves and Dodgers exiting in the NLDS after dominant regular seasons, while the seemingly middling Phillies and Padres rode their good-to-great hitters and pitchers with elite closers to surprising postseason success. Like the 2015 Mets, it might take the addition of one good bat to turn this Twins team into a dark horse contender.