Letting Sonny Gray Walk Started the Twins’ Downward Spiral

The Minnesota Twins made a choice after the 2023 season, and it continues to echo through Target Field. They let Sonny Gray, their All-Star starter, walk away in free agency. The move was tied to an ownership-driven payroll cut, and perhaps was inevitable even without one, but the fallout is undeniable. Two years later, as the team collapses for the second straight season, the absence of Gray feels like the start of a downward spiral.

Joe Ryan recently spoke of Gray’s impact in an interview with the Minnesota Star Tribune.

“I wish Sonny [Gray] was still here,” Ryan said. “I feel like things would be different if he was.”

Gray’s Role in the 2023 Breakthrough
The 2023 season was magical for the Twins. With Gray at the front of the rotation, the team captured its first playoff series victory in more than two decades, ending the infamous 18-game postseason losing streak. Gray gave Minnesota not just innings, but credibility. His presence at the top of the staff allowed the rest of the rotation to settle into roles where they could succeed.

More than numbers, though, he provided a sense of calm. Young arms like Ryan and Bailey Ober leaned on him for guidance. When Pablo López needed a co-anchor, Gray was there. For a franchise desperate for October relevance, Gray was the one who steadied the ship.

A Payroll-Driven Exit
But after that season, the story changed. The front office, working under strict payroll directives from ownership, chose not to match the market rate for Gray. Few expected the Twins to be in the conversation for Gray, anyway, but that’s where the Twins had the opportunity to change the narrative. He signed a three-year contract that guarantees him $75 million with the St. Louis Cardinals, leaving the Twins to patch together a rotation without their proven leader.

The decision seemed shortsighted even at the time, but hindsight has made it glaringly apparent. The Twins went from a playoff-caliber rotation to a patchwork group that has dealt with injuries, inconsistency, and the absence of a true ace.

“In my opinion, that goes down as the biggest mistake we have made since I’ve been here,” said Ryan. “He wanted to come back. He loved it here.”

St. Louis Performance
Gray was never going to match his 2023 performance as he continued to age. In 2024, he posted a 107 ERA+, a 1.09 WHIP, and struck out over 200 batters for only the second time in his career. He anchored the Cardinals staff, leading them back into contention. Even as he moved into his mid-30s, he remained one of the most effective pitchers in the National League.

In 2025, Father Time has started to rear his ugly head. Gray has a sub-100 ERA+ for the first time since 2018, but he continues to control the strike zone, with a sparkling 5.2% walk rate. The Cardinals were hoping to be contenders during his tenure, but that has yet to materialize. Still, Gray was known for more than his on-field performance with the Twins. 

Leadership Lost
For Ryan, the loss of Gray goes beyond innings pitched.

“There were a lot of avenues we could have gone down, but if we had re-signed Sonny, I can guarantee we would have been in the playoffs last year, and we’d probably be in a better spot this year,” Ryan said. “He was a top-notch guy, a great pitcher, incredible competitor, great guy in the clubhouse. I learned so much from him. We missed him last year.”

That leadership void has been glaring. Younger pitchers who once leaned on Gray have been asked to figure things out on their own. Without him, the rotation has lacked the veteran presence that can make all the difference in a long season.

What Could Have Been: A Different Offseason Path
Imagine a different scenario. The Twins bring Gray back after 2023, pairing him again with López at the top of the rotation. That duo provides a one-two punch that rivals almost any staff in the American League. Ryan slides comfortably into a mid-rotation role, while Ober and Chris Paddack round things out. Suddenly, Minnesota has depth, hierarchy, and stability.

There’s no way of knowing how Gray would have performed, had he returned to Minnesota. However, the message from ownership to the team could have been “we believe in this roster and want to win.” The Twins could have entered both 2024 and 2025 with one of the most stable staffs in baseball. The offense wouldn’t have felt as much pressure to carry the load, and the team’s playoff window could have stayed wide open.

Instead, the decision to cut payroll closed that window. The ripple effects are still being felt today, and the franchise continues to wrestle with the fallout of a move that looks worse with each passing season.

The Big Picture: Then vs. Now
At the time, some fans understood the decision. Gray was entering his mid-30s, and his free-agent price tag carried risk. The Twins had López signed long-term, and the belief was that Ryan and Ober were ready to take another step forward. Cutting payroll was frustrating, but the front office framed it as a chance to stay flexible and avoid long-term mistakes. They were willing (perhaps even eager) to bet on the pipeline of homegrown starting pitching they have so often emphasized.

Now, with two seasons of evidence, the perception has changed. The “risk” that came with Gray has been outweighed by what he could have meant to the Twins, especially from a leadership perspective. Meanwhile, Twins starters have failed to live up to expectations, watching their rotation depth erode and their playoff hopes dim.

What once looked like a reasonable gamble has transformed into the defining mistake of this era. This choice undermined the team’s hard-earned progress and put the franchise on a significantly different trajectory.

Should the Twins have signed Gray to an extension? Was it the team’s biggest mistake in recent years? Leave a comment and start the discussion.