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    Leadoff Candidate Conundrum


    Cody Christie

    Recent years have seen a shift in the evolution of the leadoff hitter. Gone are the days of needing a speedy player to swipe bases in front of the power hitting middle of the order. Teams are more focused on players getting on base to start an inning.

    Last year's World Series clubs, the Cubs and the Indians, are slated to start Kyle Schwarber and Carlos Santana in the lead-off spot. Both of these players don't exactly scream speed. However, they do get on base and can be a threat out of the leadoff spot.

    Minnesota is also trying to decipher which player should be featured at the top of the order. Here are four candidates to consider:

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    Byron Buxton, CF

    Minnesota's speedy outfielder has many of the tools to be a weapon out of the leadoff spot. Buxton is one of the fastest players in baseball. As recently as the 2013 season, Buxton stole 55 bases while primarily being used as a leadoff hitter. It's an interesting situation because Buxton could end up being used in multiple line-up spots throughout his career.

    Joe Mauer told the Pioneer Press, "Buck’s so talented he could hit anywhere in the order and probably do pretty good. It’s fun to have that type of speed at the top of the lineup." Molitor will likely start the season with Buxton as the number nine hitter so he can be a "second leadoff hitter." This will also put less pressure on the budding star in his sophomore season.

    Brian Dozier, 2B

    Dozier seems the candidate most likely to start the year in the leadoff spot. Last year, he hit 27 of his 42 home runs as the first batter in the order. He did this in 73 starts. For his career, he has hit .250/.317/.496 with home runs in 23% of his games. Dozier's career batting average of .246 doesn't exactly scream leadoff hitter but he has gotten on base over 32% of the time.

    Dozier also adds the ability to steal bases. Over the last two seasons, he has averaged 17 steals per season. "I just love the leadoff spot," Dozier said. "Just like Mollie, I like to ignite, get things going." Throughout his career, Dozier has been a very streaky hitter. If Dozier is in the midst of a cold spell, other hitters might be given the opportunity to take over the leadoff spot.

    Joe Mauer, 1B

    With a new analytic baseball operations department, Mauer could take over the leadoff spot. He is the most experienced hitter in the Twins line-up and he posted a .363 OBP last year. Derek Falvey's former team, the Indians, used Carlos Santana in the leadoff spot for over half of their games last season. Mauer batted leadoff on eight occasions last year while going 5-for-32 (.156 BA) with 10 to 4 strikeout to walk ratio.

    It might make the most sense to have Mauer be the leadoff hitter against right-handed pitching. I made the argument that it might be time to use a platoon system with Mauer so he would be getting the majority of his at-bats against righties. This would allow right-handed hitters like Kennys Vargas and/or Byungho Park to see more at-bats against lefties.

    Robbie Grossman, OF

    Grossman might be a sleeper pick to be the lead-off hitter. With a Rosario-Buxton-Kepler projected outfield, Grossman will likely make the team as a fourth outfielder. One injury to a starting player and his role would quickly become more important. If Dozier goes cold or Buxton slumps, Grossman might find himself at the top of the pile.

    Last year, he posted a .386 OBP which was almost 40 points higher than his career number. Grossman's defense was so poor in the outfield that the new front office might search for different candidates. It also seems likely for him to regress closer towards his career totals for getting on base.

    Who do you want to see get the majority of the leadoff at-bats? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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    That's fair and I guess I don't really care that much either way... what I care most about right now is that Buxton is nowhere near the top of the lineup. I want to see his OBP get well over .300 before I put him anywhere near the top of the lineup.

     

    No disagreement there. Buxton has to prove he can do it first.

     

    I admit to not sitting down and doing research. And thusly, I am choosing to debate rather than argue, lol. But 66 PA is closer to 50 than a hundred. You also stated that Lawton moved around in the lineup, which would affect the total numbers vs a static lineup. Also, it is one season vs number of seasons for proper context. Puckett, for example, didn't always walk a lot, but as a #3 hitter, he was always 500+ AB and I believe he may have hit 600 once or twice?? I'm just saying, overall, being separated by 1 or 2 spots in the order, over an average season, I'm not sure you'd see a very large discrepancy in PA between the 1 and 3 holes in the order.

    As to your other question, I can see Buxton getting an audition for the leadoff spot, but of course, he also has to produce there to hold the spot. He shouldn't just automatically be given the spot if not ready. I have always believed in trying to stagger your lineup, as best as possible, for a mix of LH/RH, power vs speed vs hitting vs OB, etc, to "deepen" your lineup 1-9.

    So let me ask you this...as I stated previously, Buxton, in this scenario, is deserving of hitting leadoff due to his overall ability and skill set as an exciting player. Even if he did have 66 more PA than Dozier over an entire 162 game season, and we're not talking Nixon now, what would be more valuable? Dozier hitting 1st? Or Dozier with fewer PA, in theory, but with more dynamic players OB ahead of him to be moved along or driven in?

    I understand the conventional wisdom and agree that speed should serve as a tiebreaker if we're talking about two similarly productive bats. But we're not.

     

    If Buxton turns into a better hitter than Dozier I'll be right there with you asking that he bat higher in the order. That is a huge if. In the more likely event Buxton isn't the better hitter then having him bat at the top of the order comes at a direct cost of PAs to better hitters, namely Dozier and probably Sano and 1-2 others at minimum. Look at any team season in baseball history and you will find a descending number of PAs in the lineup, usually 15-20 PA's per slot.

    I have a great deal of respect for Bill James. I agree that Rod Carew should never have accumulated more at bats hitting 2nd or 3rd than 1st. Carew did so only because of old school thinking that did not take into account OBP or power (or lack thereof).
    In baseball you want high OBP guy batting early, but who anywhere would have had Ted Williams bat leadoff? The opportunity to generate RBI has to come into the mix at some point.
    All the factors have to come into play: OBP, power, speed. If Kennys Vargas has the highest OBP on the team I am still not going to bat him directly in front of Buxton. You are almost certainly giving up bases somewhere along the line if you do so.
    I also do not believe that if Buxton never again leads off he is a bust. Lineup construction is complex. The ‘perfect’ lineup for a team is debatable. I just don’t think you have one of your biggest power hitters batting first, insuring that they have at least one bat per game with no one on. Especially when they do not lead the team in OBP.

     

    I have a great deal of respect for Bill James. I agree that Rod Carew should never have accumulated more at bats hitting 2nd or 3rd than 1st. Carew did so only because of old school thinking that did not take into account OBP or power (or lack thereof).
    In baseball you want high OBP guy batting early, but who anywhere would have had Ted Williams bat leadoff? The opportunity to generate RBI has to come into the mix at some point.
    All the factors have to come into play: OBP, power, speed. If Kennys Vargas has the highest OBP on the team I am still not going to bat him directly in front of Buxton. You are almost certainly giving up bases somewhere along the line if you do so.
    I also do not believe that if Buxton never again leads off he is a bust. Lineup construction is complex. The ‘perfect’ lineup for a team is debatable. I just don’t think you have one of your biggest power hitters batting first, insuring that they have at least one bat per game with no one on. Especially when they do not lead the team in OBP.

     

    : mic drop :

    In what universe does it make sense to give him the least number of possible PA's? ie. hitting #9?

    A universe where Buxton is coming off a season when he got on base 28% of the time, which was still a 3% improvement over the previous season.



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