Justin Topa, Zebby Matthews, and the Twins' Pitching Depth, Should They Need It

The 2024 season has not played out as expected from a roster standpoint. Louie Varland, Chris Paddack, and Anthony DeSclafani were expected to fill the fourth and fifth starter's roles. Injuries and ineffectiveness have thwarted those plans, which has led to the first layer of depth being called up to the big-league club. Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa are now key components to the Twins’ success.

In the bullpen, the team was counting on Justin Topa and Daniel Duarte as dependable medium-leverage arms. Topa has yet to throw a pitch for the parent club, and Duarte underwent elbow surgery in May. Jhoan Durán and Brock Stewart have both spent time on the shelf, and even when nominally healthy, each has looked more vulnerable than in the past. Caleb Thielbar has been largely ineffective. Those factors have forced some creativity to build out the bullpen. Who’s left on the farm to answer the call, should more guys get injured? Let’s take a look at some pitching options.

As the Twins have a bit of a 40-man crunch, let’s start with the players who are on the 40-man roster, but not on the active roster or the IL.

Pitchers
Matt Canterino
Brent Headrick
Ronny Henriquez
Josh Winder
Louie Varland

This group is going to be the majority of the injury-replacement talent pool for the Twins this season. The Twins are famous for not wanting to lose assets unnecessarily, so if they don’t have to make 40-man moves, they probably won’t.

There are also several players currently on the injured list who could return at some point this season. These guys could also be the next man up in some cases.

On the MLB Injured List
Brock Stewart - 15-day IL
Kody Funderburk - 15-day IL
Chris Paddack - 15-day IL

This group comprises high-upside arms who have already made important contributions to the team's success in the last season and a half, but their returns are not guaranteed. Funderburk is rehabbing an oblique strain and is a late-season candidate to return. He has shown inconsistent promise throughout his Twins tenure. Stewart is dominant, when healthy. He received an MRI and is awaiting results on his injured shoulder. Rocco Baldelli said he’s not “committing to Stewart’s season being over”, which can’t be a good sign. Chris Paddack “expects to pitch again in 2024,” but has no ETA, and at this time of year, that means that his expectations might go unrealized. He's owed $7.5 million next season, and has been very good when fully healthy. With the Twins' payroll constraints, Paddack either needs to be reliable and healthy, or not be on their books. There are no certainties with any of these pitchers, but the team will be better for each that is able to return.

Other
Steven Okert (Bereavement list)

Now that we have established the 40-man and injured list options for activation, let’s look at the current depth chart at the major-league level and the possibilities for next man up at each position.

Starting Pitching
Current: Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa
Next up: Zebby Matthews, Randy Dobnak

The prospect vs the feel-good return: Matthews has as much helium as any pitcher in the Twins organization. Starting the year at Cedar Rapids, he now has two starts under his belt with the Saints. The first was great. The second… was not great. He’s known for his excellent control, and his velo has ticked up into plus-plus territory. A legitimate, consensus top-100 prospect, Matthews is an organizational success story. Drafted in the eighth round of the 2022 Draft, he fits the Falvey mold of drafting tall college starters from small schools, then working on biomechanics to improve their stuff. Matthews now touches 99 MPH on his heater, and has playoff-caliber starter upside. While he will benefit from more seasoning in the minors, the Twins could choose to start his clock early in a pinch, as his stuff/command combination is drool-worthy.

On the other hand, Randy Dobnak has faced a lengthy attempt to return to the majors after twice requiring pulley surgery on his finger. His stuff is… fine. His command is… so-so. His facial hair is fierce, he’s (probably) a really good driver, and you have to root for a guy with a story like his. Supposed to be a really good dude, too.

The most likely scenario here would be that, in the event of an injury to an established starter, Dobnak would take over the fifth starter spot--unless the Twins decide that every win counts. Then, perhaps, they could convince themselves to cut bait with a marginal pitcher on the 40-man in favor of adding Matthews.

High-Leverage Relief Pitchers
Current: Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Jorge Alcalá
Next up: Louie Varland, then…let's get weird

Last season, when Varland moved to the bullpen, his stuff played up, and he was dominant for an inning at a time. Because he has been ineffective as a starter this season, it may be time to consider converting him to relief work permanently. Festa and Matthews have passed him on the depth chart, and if Varland has the ability to be a late-inning reliever, he could be a difference-maker for the club as they seek to lock down a playoff spot. Beyond him, there aren’t great high-leverage options in the system, unless the front office wanted to get very aggressive with a rehabbing Matt Canterino or Connor Prielipp--which seems unlikely, given their health concerns and relative inexperience as pros.

Medium-Leverage Relief Pitchers
Current: Cole Sands, Trevor Richards
Next up: Justin Topa, then…Matt Bowman?

Luckily, Topa is nearly ready to return, assuming he doesn’t experience any setbacks on his rehab assignment. While he doesn’t have a lengthy track record at the major-league level, he was lights-out for the Mariners last season. The hope is he can pitch at the same level for the Twins upon his return. Whether or not this is likely remains to be seen, but he is the best option for a medium-leverage arm at this point. After him, the Twins could look to add Saints pitchers to the 40-man, such as Matt Bowman.

Bowman is 33, and the definition of a journeyman. He’s pitched in 196 games across six different organizations, and has amassed just 0.4 career fWAR. However, his time with the Saints this season has been great. In 13 appearances (yes, small sample size), Bowman has a WHIP under 1.00 and is striking out over 10 batters per nine innings pitched. Could he give 15 good innings down the stretch if pressed into duty? Maybe. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that, though.

Low-Leverage Relief Pitchers
Current: Steven Okert, Caleb Thielbar, Randy Dobnak
Next up: Ronny Henriquez, Josh Winder, Brent Headrick

All three of these next guys up are just guys. All have had multiple chances to stick at the big-league level, and all have failed to impress. Collectively, they have a career fWAR of 0.0 across 55 appearances with the Twins. At this point, they could eat low-leverage innings, but it would be unwise to count on them for anything more than that. I’m not going to list any additional low-leverage options, as my assumption is the Twins won’t burn a 40-man spot on a replacement-level, low-leverage relief pitcher.

Overall, the Twins have graduated several top pitching prospects this season. That has impacted the number of good pitchers in the upper minors to call upon as injury replacements. Because of this, it's more important than ever that the Twins can stay healthy down the stretch; there just aren't guys beating down the door to the majors. 

What do you think? Would these be the next guys up in the event of more injuries? How would you feel about these options, should the unforeseen occur? Are there other players you would call up if you were in the front office? Comment below to start the discussion!